Chinese Military Build-up

[Hammer]

Here's the article:

Link


I wanted to see if anyone else thinks war with China is inevitable? At the very least, a Soviet-style cold war. I'm not saying now, but in 20-30 years after they have grown to match US superpower levels. In many ways, China's situation is very similar to Japan's and Germany's for WWII. China needs resources like Japan did and it wants world recognition and lebenstraum like Germany. I'm writing a paper for a class and wanted to get some thoughts. If anyone here is from China or Taiwan, I'd especially like to hear from you.

 

[RunsWithScissors]

China's, America's, and Taiwan's goal are not irreconcialable (sp?).


No war, just lots of bluster. After 9-11, China and US relations are on the mend.... permanently. We both now know who our true enemy is.

 

[Red Dawn]

<< No war, just lots of bluster. After 9-11, China and US relations are on the mend.... permanently. We both now know who our true enemy is. >>

And I think as Chinas inevitably moves towards Capitalism and Democracy we will beome friendlier. Both the US and China has to much to offer each other.

 

[PowerMac4Ever]

Anyone read Tom Clancy's latest, "The Bear and the Dragon"?

 

[HamSupLo]

I don't think China is as starved as Japan for resources and given it's bitter experience under colonialism, I doubt that they'll attempt to attack other East Asian countries. As long as each generation of those old bastard leaders die, political reforms in the CCP will accelerate. Hopefully, the new government leaders will be better educated and not unqualified officials from the countryside.

 

[Mday]

points:
1. US has 3 trillion dollars worth of munitions
2. China has several hundred billion at the most
3. most of china's artillery is cold war (70s) age
4. most of China's soldiers are not trained to use any modern weapons
5. china's soldiers are primarily used for home-land defense, their training is um, well, not as good as the US
6. china has no interest in becoming a conqueror of nations
7. china has enough problems with food and national affairs to bother with much
8. china is dependent on foreign markets for money
9. yes china is increasing its military spending
10. the south east asia area has been having a minor (compared to US and soviet) arms race
11. we are selling arms to taiwan and japan
12. we own the seas
13. we own the skies, generally speaking

 

[CanOWorms]

I think having all these nuclear powers all in one place (Russia, China, India, Pakistan) with everyone not trusting anyone else will probably be a problem for everyone there

 

[UltraQuiet]

China will eventually go the way of the old Soviet Union only much faster because of the internet. The big question is, how much of a fuss will they create on their way.

 

[Sachmho]

Thats why we need internment camps to prevent future violence

 

[Mday]

actually, China is slowly becoming a democracy

it's economy is already market based

 

[Looney]

In China's over 2000 year history, when has the Chinese ever been expansionist? Never if i'm correct... hell, they surrounded themselves with a wall just to keep the insiders in, and outsiders out. WHAT possible motive would the Chinese have to start a war with the US? Wars start for 2 reasons, for expansioning, and for ideology. As for expansion, that won't happen, the Chinese borders today are almost exactly the same as they were 2000 years ago. It may be hard for some westerners to understand, but they never had a need to conquor anybody else and impose their will on others.

As for ideology, possibly, but China itself sees the failure of communism, and is embracing capitalism. As the population becomes more wealthy due to capitalism, they will have more power. Once they have more power, the people will have more influence in the government... and they'll quickly realize that communism isn't very good for economic growth, and democracy is, and they'll eventually become democratic.

Like Red Dawn said, China and the US has too much to offer one another, and too much to lose, to go to war. It won't happen. Today the power and strength of a nation isn't the size of it's military or size of it's territory... because no matter how big your nation's miltary is, or how much territory your nation has acquire, it doesn't do much for you personally. But economic growth and size IS beneficial to you, and you do see the effects of those.

China will eventually go the way of the old Soviet Union only much faster because of the internet. The big question is, how much of a fuss will they create on their way.

What kind of ignorant statement is this? You want to elaborate? Well, it's been 10 years since the fall of the Iron Curtain, and China is still doing well, even better... so i don't know how you've concluded that they will 'go the way of the old Soviet Union only much faster because of the internet' BS.

 

[RoninRXN]

<< China will eventually go the way of the old Soviet Union only much faster because of the internet. The big question is, how much of a fuss will they create on their way. >>



...I don't get it.

 

[b0mbrman]

Thats why we need internment camps to prevent future violence

I hope you're joking...what with China's history of human rights violations and all.

 

[UltraQuiet]

<< What kind of ignorant statement is this? You want to elaborate? Well, it's been 10 years since the fall of the Iron Curtain, and China is still doing well, even better... so i don't know how you've concluded that they will 'go the way of the old Soviet Union only much faster because of the internet' BS. >>



I'd be happy to elaborate. I hope someone as ignorant as I am can explain what I meant to someone as smart as you. First of all I don't think capitalist=democracy although they are often intertwined. My comment was focused on their form of goverment. I think part of the reason the Politburo was able to keep control so long was because they controlled the media so well. The Chinese gov't attempts to do this but is not sucessfull mainly because of the internet. The Chinese realize there is a better way and demand it faster. All I was saying is that if there form of gov't was going to change it would happen faster than it did in Russia.

 

[Mday]

<< In China's over 2000 year history, when has the Chinese ever been expansionist? Never if i'm correct... hell, they surrounded themselves with a wall just to keep the insiders in, and outsiders out. WHAT possible motive would the Chinese have to start a war with the US? Wars start for 2 reasons, for expansioning, and for ideology. As for expansion, that won't happen, the Chinese borders today are almost exactly the same as they were 2000 years ago. It may be hard for some westerners to understand, but they never had a need to conquor anybody else and impose their will on others. >>



dood, you are short 2000-3000 years. and over that period, china has expanded itself from the 3 river dealie up north east. during that period, china also extended itself to tibet and well, taiwan to an extent.

china is so non expansionist that china destroyed their "navy" a couple of hundred years ago through active destruction, and neglect.

 

[Nefrodite]

ok i just don't understand the arrogance we have sometimes. think about it, we have the worlds best and most powerful military. that means no one else should have or build one too? other european nations have high tech weaponary and built them up over time with everyone else. China is trying to catch up now that they aren't under the thumb of imperialism, and they shouldn't? As long as you have a 3rd rate military, no one is going to respect you, thats just the way it is. china is far away from us as they could possibly be, i don't think they want to land troops in california so they can steal hollywood and i don't think china is starved for resources as japan was.. japan is an island with very little resources to begin with. china has far more land. but yes, the taiwan thing is a pisser, but the hardliners are slowly dying off in china. it takes time. its all about capitalism right now

 

[Jfur]

their infowarriors are what you should be really worried about

 

[Pennstate]

an interesting PRC vs ROC military match up web site

http://emeraldesigns.com/matchup/military.shtml


BTW, I don't think China ever plans on invading the US. They want to have enough offensive ability to take Taiwan, even if the US helps. The rest goes to defenses. The two things that they spend $$ on: Submarines, small missile frigates. They are all meant to counter the US air craft carrier groups. They are stocking up on supersonic anti-ship missiles from Russia. Apparently they are buying two types. One glides above 40 ft above water and then dives at mach 1 when it's wthin like 1000 ft from the target. The other is the super fast Russian torpedo that shoots out steam from its head to reduce drag on the torpedo. The US NAVY currently has no counter measures against these two weapons. The whole American spy in Russia thing last year and the Kursk are all believed to be somehow related to the new torpedo.
Also, China realized from Iraq, Kosovo and now Afghanistan that Air Defense is important. They have huge stocks of S-300 and even the new S-400 russian surface to air missiles. Basically, The Russians design them and they let the Chinese test them (because Russia can't afford to do both). The word is that the S-400 has a range of 400 km from detect to destroy. Air power may seems to be kicking ass in Iraq, Kosovo and Afghanistan. But we need to realize in all 3 of those scenarios, the air power were not challenged.

 

[Nemesis77]

<<
6. china has no interest in becoming a conqueror of nations
>>



[cough]Tibet[/cough]

 

[Pennstate]

Since when was tibet a separate nation? Don't tell me you've only studied history for the past 70 years

 

[Nemesis77]

<< Since when was tibet a separate nation? >>



Since about 127BC.

"Five hundred years before Buddha Sakyamuni came into this world i.e., circa 1063 B.C., a semi-legendary figure known as Lord Shenrab Miwo reformed the primitive animism of the Shen race and founded the Tibetan Bon religion. According to Bonpo sources there were eighteen Shangshung Kings who ruled Tibet before King Nyatri Tsenpo. Tiwor Sergyi Jhagruchen was the first Shangshung
King.

Shangshung, before its decline, was the name of an empire which comprised the whole of Tibet. The empire known as Shangshung Go-Phug-Bar-sum consisted of Kham and Amdo forming the Go or Goor, U and Tsang forming the Bar or Middle, and Guge Stod-Ngari Korsum forming the Phug or Interior.

As the Shangshung empire declined, a kingdom known as Bod, the present name of Tibet, came into existence at Yarlung and Chongyas valleys at the time of King Nyatri Tsenpo, who started the heroic age of the Chogyals (Religious Kings). Bod grew until the whole of Tibet was reunited under King Songtsen Gampo, when tha last Shangshung King, Ligmigya, was killed. The official Tibetan Royal Year of the modern Tibetan calendar is dated from the enthronement of King Nyatri Tsenpo in 127 B.C. This lineage of Tibetan monarchy continued for well over a thousand years till King Tri Wudum Tsen, more commonly known as Lang Darma, was assassinated in 842 A.D..."

Source. Continued there.

 

[CivilRightsLawyer]

i doubt an analysis of China's military powers can lead to a simple conclusion that U.S war with China is inevitable. The Cold War provides a very good study of how two war powers can play the game of who has the most weapons, and go toward the brink of war, and ultimately lead to peaceful relations. the dominat force that compels hostile nations to re-evaluate their military resources is that starving a population at the price of tanks and missles leads only to greater internal instability. russia is an excellent case study. it is the hope, but not to be too idealistic, that China will utilize economic reform as a slow and gradual means to political reform.

 

[carmeo]

Why are people still stuck in the stage that China is the prime enemy/opponent of the US? I am a Chinese immigrant and probabaly know more about China than an average American. China is moving toward campitalism but not neccessary democracy. In fact China should not move to democracy right now cuz the average population is under educated. Democracy now would lead to the few elites in the cities struggle for power and create more instability. Why people still have the feel that China is trying to take over the world? Probablity it is still named Communist party. China rarely sent troop to other countries, but it had been invaded quite often and had to give out colonies (hong kong, macao.) The only foreseeable conflict with the US is the problem of Tiwan. If they are going to war then I think it is still a civil war between the Chinese. But unless Tiwan declare independence, China would not touch Tiwan.

 

[ojai00]

<< Thats why we need internment camps to prevent future violence >>



Where would you get an idea like this? I'm not sure if you said this as a joke or if you were serious, but there are some, if not a lot of Chinese members on Anandtech. When I read this, I was offended, because I am a loyal U.S. citizen. Sometimes, you should watch your comments, and not be so ignorant. And what good would internment camps do? Most of the Chinese people that I know are loyal to the U.S. We are not here to spy...just to live with all the other people in the U.S. IN PEACE.

 

[Nefrodite]

Why are people still stuck in the stage that China is the prime enemy/opponent of the US?

right wing media likes to rant about communism, and sadly the soviets are no more.