Climate Science Is Not Settled

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Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
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Since you completely misunderstood my comment, and you're now into wild ass guesses about my education, or lack there of, it would be wise to just stop here. You're in defensive idiot mode about to step over into full blown retard. Let it go.

Even though this is P&N it wasn't my intention to directly insult you. So if I got you spun up, my apologies.

Your argument appears to me to be the same one Schmuckly is making below. "Scientist said it was going to cool 40 years ago and now they say its warming. I don't trust them."

This arguement mis-states what the actual scientific argument was. Certain pollutants do cause a cooling effect. They also cause acid rain and ozone depletion. In fact Whisky notes this in is post on the cooling effects of volcanism Regulations were passed in the 70's and 80's to curtail those emission.

Mainstream media ran with it as the next ice-age was coming as the links you posted show.

How is human-caused air pollution changing our climate?

Human-caused particulate air pollution has a relatively minor—and likely decreasing—impact on our climate. Since aerosol particles of human origin both reflect and absorb solar energy as the solar beam travels down through the atmosphere, these particles can diminish the energy that arrives at the Earth’s surface as heat. Scientists estimate that particles produced by human activities have led to a net loss of solar energy (heat) at the ground (by as much as 8 percent in densely populated areas)[5] over the past few decades. This effect, sometimes referred to as ‘solar dimming,’ may have masked some of the late 20th century global warming due to heat-trapping gases.

Human activities that result in production of both reflecting and absorbing aerosol particle have been curtailed by legislation and modern technology in many places. The ‘pea soup fogs’ that so bedeviled London in Sherlock Holmes’ day, for example, were caused by particles produced by incomplete combustion of coal. These ‘fogs’ are now a thing of the past, thanks to mandatory scrubbers and other advanced combustion techniques. Clean air regulations in the United States have also decreased particle concentrations considerably. Even today, though, haze clouds seen over urban regions give dramatic proof of the effects of human-induced particles in the United States, while atmospheric soot production is still very high in many parts of Asia.


I too remember being told about "The coming Ice Age" in school.
This is why I put 0 credibility in "Climate Change" or "Global Warming" theory.

It's all a big money grab.
From Ethanol to cap and trade.

People in America could be approx. 30% richer if not for this nonsense.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,232
5,807
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Umm;Climate change farce has contributed greatly to the reduction in living standards.

It is the reason electricity bills are higher.

It is the reason you get less food for the money.

It is the reason you have problems with your gas-powered equipment.

It is the reason you pay more at the pump.

Just think about this:Since the inception of motorized vehicles,Diesel fuel was about 1/2 the price of Gasoline.Enter "Climate Change" (a few years ago) and now Diesel is more than gasoline.Thereby driving up the price of everything shipped by trucking/water;also reducing the income of owner operators so they spend less back into the economy.

No. That(except your 3rd point) is all because of the Cost of Energy, especially Oil.
 

Paul98

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2010
3,732
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indeed one does.

In this area, it seems the following among some climate investigators is this:

Eliminate all variables except CO2. Temperatures are rising, CO2 is rising therefore rising CO2 causes rising temperatures. EGAD!!!!

Now we are adding in variables as our research progresses. Solar irradiation, AMO/PDO, ice extent, volcanism, water vapor, etc... And as we add these variables back in, the effect we originally thought was all CO2 (man generated at that) is lessening all the time. Not going away necessarily, but the affect we are having on global temperature warming is going down.

Now I realize I have vastly oversimplified a very complex topic. I did so for illustrative purposes to make a point. That is, we cannot say with certainty man is the primary cause of global warming via the introduction of additional CO2 into the atmosphere.

Way to take my comment completely out of context, or not know what I meant. You test the CO2 in a controlled environment aka in a lab to remove the variables in the climate. You don't simply remove variables from your equation while they are still there.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
17,123
14,491
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Here is a brand new peer reviewed paper that addresses climate sensitivity to CO2. It is to be published in Climate Dynamics this month. Below is a link to the paper.

http://niclewis.files.wordpress.com..._clim-dyn2014_accepted-reformatted-edited.pdf

Briefly, the paper uses data from the IPCC 5th AWG to refine estimates of climate sensitivity and shows that climate is less sensitive to CO2 than has been estimated.

Certainly, climate is affected by CO2, but it appears to not be as much as expected.

Well I'm not surprised to see you quoting Judith Curry. But I am pleasantly surprised to see her actually publishing in a peer reviewed journal.

I'm also pleased that by promoting her work you are implicitly agreeing that CO2 released by humans increases global temperatures.

Of course the impacts of even a reduced sensitivity are already being felt.



"carried out in 2008 in the Siberian Arctic has shown millions of tonnes of methane being released[36][37][38][39][40] with concentrations in some regions reaching up to 100 times above normal.[41]"

As we deepen our understanding of a very complex system, we are getting better data and that shows (for now) that CO2 is not as much of a factor as originally thought. Not to say it has no factor because it does, clearly add to warming.

Unfortunately, Curry and Lewis will be named here shortly as deniers who are in the paid pocket of big oil or some such evil.

Well when you spend the last 10 years throwing bombs and going on Fox News to drive clicks at your website, you shouldn't be upset that your reputation suffers. Of course if her current work holds up it will be incorporated into the body of knowledge.

indeed one does.

In this area, it seems the following among some climate investigators is this:

Eliminate all variables except CO2. Temperatures are rising, CO2 is rising therefore rising CO2 causes rising temperatures. EGAD!!!!

Now we are adding in variables as our research progresses. Solar irradiation, AMO/PDO, ice extent, volcanism, water vapor, etc... And as we add these variables back in, the effect we originally thought was all CO2 (man generated at that) is lessening all the time. Not going away necessarily, but the affect we are having on global temperature warming is going down.

Now I realize I have vastly oversimplified a very complex topic. I did so for illustrative purposes to make a point. That is, we cannot say with certainty man is the primary cause of global warming via the introduction of additional CO2 into the atmosphere.

Of course this sounds reasonable but is defiantly wrong. Let's talk about now.

We've been measuring global temperature directly for 130 years.


CO2 for over 100 years


Direct solar flux since the late 70's


Ocean temperature data since the mid 50's
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/General/temperature.html

Not to mention historical atmospheric composition:


So if by now you mean the last century or so then yes. We are now including all of the above.

There are only so many sources of heat and gasses on this planet. Climate change follows natural laws so if you have some other source of heat or greenhouse gas that could match the observed data then please let us know. If not, your appeals aren't skeptisicm they are denialism.

(I also guess that since Curry and Lewis simplified things you don't want us to believe the article you posted?)
 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
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I'm also pleased that by promoting her work you are implicitly agreeing that CO2 released by humans increases global temperatures.

I always have, always. I simply do not agree that man is the only cause or even the primary cause of GW.

The rest of your graphs simply do not mean that man is the primary mover in GW. As we learn more and more, man's impact appears to be lessening.
 
Nov 30, 2006
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Well I'm not surprised to see you quoting Judith Curry. But I am pleasantly surprised to see her actually publishing in a peer reviewed journal.

I'm also pleased that by promoting her work you are implicitly agreeing that CO2 released by humans increases global temperatures.
The $64 question is, and always has been, how much of the temperature increase from the Little Ice Age forward is actually the direct result of AGW vs how much is due to natural variation. "Deniers" say that the "Believers" have been exaggerating AGW to the point of fear-mongering. Nobody's saying that AGW is not a factor.
 
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bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
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What about subsidizing corn crops?

He is talking about ethanol..... a "sustainable" form of energy created by corn. It was first mandated by George Bush the elder. The cost of this fuel on the world runs in the billions and the number of deaths due to it are untold.
 

Cozarkian

Golden Member
Feb 2, 2012
1,352
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What about subsidizing corn crops that are used in "Energy"

Not to say I'm agreeing with the person you quoted, but the subsidies are a Cost of Energy that is imposed upon the taxpayers.

The purpose of the subsidies is an indirect tariff to prevent the importation of sugar beets from Brazil, which I've read are a more efficient source of ethanol. If the subsidies were gone, we'd still have pretty cheap energy from importing sugar beets, but corn farmers would take a hit until they could switch to other crops.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,232
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He is talking about ethanol..... a "sustainable" form of energy created by corn. It was first mandated by George Bush the elder. The cost of this fuel on the world runs in the billions and the number of deaths due to it are untold.

Ya, I know that part of it. Just trying to figure out why he brings it up in this conversation.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,651
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I'm sure there's a few outliers as there always is with anything. Among human beings, that's a given.

Uhmm, "outliers"? What?

http://www.people-press.org/2013/11/01/gop-deeply-divided-over-climate-change/

Large portions of conservatives do not believe the Earth is warming at all: (polls usually show about a third of Republicans identify as Tea Party)



Whether human activity is the main cause:



Whether or not scientists generally agree that human activity causes warming:



Forget outliers, this shows that at least large minorities and in some case an outright majority of conservatives deny the basic facts on climate change.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,651
50,912
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Global warming. Climate always changes.

Both are actually accurate, but the important part, what I thought was implied, was that it's primarily human caused.

Regardless, there is a large swath of conservatives that simply don't believe some pretty basic facts.
 
Nov 30, 2006
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Both are actually accurate, but the important part, what I thought was implied, was that it's primarily human caused.

Regardless, there is a large swath of conservatives that simply don't believe some pretty basic facts.
What percentage is natural vs. man-made in your opinion?
 

WHAMPOM

Diamond Member
Feb 28, 2006
7,628
183
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MAN'S EFFECT ON GLOBAL WARMING/COOLING; after 911, planes were grounded for three days. Global temperatures measured during those contrail free days immediately rose one degree F. and dropped one degree F. when flights resumed. This is a documented and sure sign of Man made climate effect.
Ignoring facts, magical thinking, am I seeing CBD?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,651
50,912
136
The Tea Party is an outlier group in my opinion.

I would say that calling a group that represents one in three republicans and that exerts strong influence over elected officials outliers is severely stretching the definition of the word.

Hell, when you look at the other metrics about the scientific consensus and human responsibility for warming we're talking about near majorities or outright majorities. It's crazy.
 
Nov 30, 2006
15,456
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MAN'S EFFECT ON GLOBAL WARMING/COOLING; after 911, planes were grounded for three days. Global temperatures measured during those contrail free days immediately rose one degree F. and dropped one degree F. when flights resumed. This is a documented and sure sign of Man made climate effect.
Ignoring facts, magical thinking, am I seeing CBD?
Nope...I think you're seeing LBD.
 

bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
1,215
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I would say that calling a group that represents one in three republicans and that exerts strong influence over elected officials outliers is severely stretching the definition of the word.

Hell, when you look at the other metrics about the scientific consensus and human responsibility for warming we're talking about near majorities or outright majorities. It's crazy.

So....... in other words, Eski, it isn't science, it is a popularity contest? Thank you for clearing that up for us. Why not engage on the actual content of the arguments than ad homs? I've rarely if ever seen you do that on climate threads.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,651
50,912
136
So....... in other words, Eski, it isn't science, it is a popularity contest? Thank you for clearing that up for us. Why not engage on the actual content of the arguments than ad homs? I've rarely if ever seen you do that on climate threads.

Nope, the science is really solid on all those things, so the question I was looking at is how many people were denying clear and unequivocal evidence to suit what they wanted to believe.

You're one of those people, by the way. How does it feel to have so much in common with the Tea Party?
 
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