The "pause" is now up to 18 years effective 10/1/14.
The "pause" is now up to 18 years effective 10/1/14.
Doc, is there a reason you ignore the increase in ocean energy over the same period?
That's an increase of ~10x10^23J of energy during the "pause".
Doc, is there a reason you ignore the increase in ocean energy over the same period?
That's an increase of ~10x10^23J of energy during the "pause".
Can you tell us how much land surface warming that should translate into? Could you specify WHEN that warming will occur?
Global surface temperature increases exceed 1.5 C and keep rising beyond 2100 in all scenarios except the lowest-emission scenario, in which actions are taken to nearly eliminate CO2 emissions in the second half of the 21st century. In the scenarios with higher rates of emissions, warming is likely to exceed 2 C by 2100, and could even exceed 4 C.
Doc, is there a reason you ignore the increase in ocean energy over the same period?
That's an increase of ~10x10^23J of energy during the "pause".
WTF? I'm not ignoring anything. I hear there's a theory going around that changing ocean currents could be driving heat into the deep sea (Tung and Chen). However, I'm not sure if you're aware of this or not, but there have been several theories attempting to explain the unexpected global temperature pause. If you actually think Tung and Chen's hypothesis is proven and the undeniable reason for the pause, then you might want to rethink the assumptions, facts and rationale you used to arrive at such a questionable conclusion. In case you haven't got the memo yet, the science is far from being settled on this issue.Doc, is there a reason you ignore the increase in ocean energy over the same period?
That's an increase of ~10x10^23J of energy during the "pause".
Let me ask OP the obvious non-question here:
Was there ever any science in Climate Change at all ...
The mass of the oceans is ~1.4*10^21 Kg, so adding 10^23J energy would increase the average temperature by ~0.02C.
Now, I asked you why you are ignoring the large increase in ocean thermal energy during the "pause" in atmospheric. Endorsing the pause and then ignoring my quesiton is generally what I would expect a global warming denier to do. I believe in the past you've indicated you believe that the climate is warming and man has a part in that.
So help me out here. What's your position? Why is the pause meaningful but the increase in ocean energy meaningless.
The mass of the oceans is ~1.4*10^21 Kg, so adding 10^23J energy would increase the average temperature by ~0.02C.
You Doc, stated the pause is now 18 years old. Then you stated you've ignored nothing when referring to the measurable repeatable proof that there has been an increase in energy. These are two mutually contradictory statements. WTF indeed.WTF? I'm not ignoring anything. I hear there's a theory going around that changing ocean currents could be driving heat into the deep sea (Tung and Chen). However, I'm not sure if you're aware of this or not, but there have been several theories attempting to explain the unexpected global temperature pause. If you actually think Tung and Chen's hypothesis is proven and the undeniable reason for the pause, then you might want to rethink the assumptions, facts and rationale you used to arrive at such a questionable conclusion. In case you haven't got the memo yet, the science is far from being settled on this issue.
The rather strong conclusion that the cause has been found is overblown - Gavin Schmidt
Seems like a diversion to direct us towards general assumptions for the year 2100, as opposed to addressing the direct nature of the OHC's rise. First, the scale is in joules... because the change in temperature is quite small. Second, we're on land, so whatever we measure in OHC does not directly impact us.
1) No the scale is in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000J or as I said above equal to 23 million megatons of TNT.
If you aren't familiar with nuclear weapons the largest bomb ever designed was the Tsar Bomba by the USSR. It was designed with a yield of 100 megatons of TNT. They were afraid to test it at that yield and only detonated it at 50megatons.
The amount of energy the oceans have increased by is equal to 230,000 of those bombs the Russians were afraid to test.
2) "Doesn't effect us because we live on land". This comment literally just stopped me in my tracks. You have to understand how ocean temperatue affects us to argue climate change.
The energy in the oceans basically what drives the entire climate. Evaporation of water to drive clouds and storms requires energy. That energy comes from the sun. The more energy available in the water the more energy is available to drive storms, ocean currents, and air flow. Please investigate this.
Now you'll come back and tell us that this "extra heat" will find its way to the surface. Thus my request... when, and how much? You do not know. If the ocean does release this heat, would it not cool in response? Why does the OHC only ever show warming these past 40 years? Apparently our record does not demonstrate it releasing heat.
This extra heat does not come from the ocean. It comes from the sun. If the earth were in energy balance the OHC would on average show no year to year increase.
Thermodynamics says that energy flows from areas of high concentration to areas of low concentration. The oceans are cold and the atmosphere is warm. Heat will flow into the oceans from the atmosphere. The upper ocean is warmer than the lower ocean so heat will move from the upper ocean to the lower ocean.
The OHC only shows warming these past 40 years because the changes in the atmosphere means the entire Earth as whole is gaining energy from the sun.
There can be no pause unless the land, sea, and air are ALL paused.
.
That brings into question the quality of the record. 40 years of continuous warming... but you'd have us believe it releases heat into the atmosphere. That it'll impact our surface temps. I trust Argo, but that's only an ~11 year record. Need 60 years to capture PDO / AMO.
Logically, if the oceans only ever warmed... our landmass temps should only ever warm. Your OHC argues that the pause shouldn't have happened. Is that not true?
No the ocean on average doesn't warm the atmosohere. Sure it will at the poles where the ocean is warmer than the atmosphere, but globally on average the ocean is warming. It will only cool on average globally when the Earths temperature is high enough to radiate equal the incoming solar energy.
I'd trust it more if OHC cooled while our surface warmed. That would demonstrate the exchange of heat, a direct cause and effect. Without that... something is very much wrong with OHC, or my understanding of it.
I'm sorry Jasklas it's your understanding of the climate thats wrong. What you've assumed is completely backwards. I'm not saying this to be insulting but what you've said is just plain wrong.
That'd explain it. Too small to matter. At that rate we can expect 0.2c by 2100?
there was some science probably.
but then profiteers their sticky hands in it and made it all about money.
Paratus, how can the pause exist if the oceans have done nothing but warm these past 40 years? They're supposed to be a regulator with wide, natural, variations. Yet all OHC shows is up up and away.
How did it cool the atmosphere if all it does is get hotter?
There you go the science is settled lulz. Cause thats how science works. One and done then its settled. Had a good laugh with my coffee alright then.
Both sides of this are officially stupid. Politics and science don't mix which would probably be your first clue that the science isn't all that great.
Storms are coming.
And rain. Hide yo kids hide yo wife. I've never seen the ocean evaporate H2O into the atmosphere and then see it fall back out of the sky in my whole lifetime. Everyone knows the day it rains is the day the planet is dieing.
Aside from that I remember watching discovery awhile ago and they said based on soil samples that 1,500 years ago there was a peak of hurricane activity and that we were overdue for a large increase in hurricanes based on historical norms and that the period of the last 1,500 years or so was actually a fluke of abnormal calm. So who knows. But your computer sim that they first ran on Pentium III's I'm sure is good science too. Plus all the stuff about nuclear bombs worth of energy in the ocean is very scary cause thats how scientists break things down. Hope we don't have any big 5,000 Tsar Bomba category hurricanes this year.
Pretty much, including government.
He is just doing it out of the goodness of his heart
So is this guy: