CNN used this person as an example of retiring early with $2.1M but...

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Exterous

Super Moderator
Jun 20, 2006
20,430
3,535
126
4% has something like a 95%+ success rate over any 40 year period in history.

Many point out that this only works for a single anomaly when you look at stock markets worldwide. Sure 4% has worked for a US investor but IIRC the more successful world wide SWR is 2%. Its a big question as to whether that anomaly will continue another 30+ years. Still its a decent initial goal that can be refined as you approach your potential retirement age
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,300
5,730
136
I have relatives who had a ton of money because they never did anything and lived in a crappy house. Then the state took it all to pay for their nursing home. No way, man.

thats why i am probably gonna buy some LTC insurance in 25-35 years.
 

jlee

Lifer
Sep 12, 2001
48,513
221
106
Many point out that this only works for a single anomaly when you look at stock markets worldwide. Sure 4% has worked for a US investor but IIRC the more successful world wide SWR is 2%. Its a big question as to whether that anomaly will continue another 30+ years. Still its a decent initial goal that can be refined as you approach your potential retirement age

It may be an anomaly when looking at the global situation, but if it's the only situation that has ever existed in the USA, it's reliable enough for me to work with it and see how it goes.
 
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