College Football Playoff

Fingolfin269

Lifer
Feb 28, 2003
17,948
31
91
Did not see a discussion on this yet so thought I'd get something started.

The top 4 were announced today as follows:

1) Alabama
4) Ohio State

2) Oregon
3) Florida State

What do the resident college football fans feel about this? I'm honestly glad Ohio State got in considering what they had to go through this season to get here. But I'm not happy that both TCU and Baylor are out either, especially considering TCU was #3 last week and did absolutely nothing to hurt themselves yesterday by beating their opponent 55-3.

I'd also like to throw out that in my opinion FSU should be #1. Defending national champions and undefeated yet they are #3? Come on man!
 

HTFOff

Golden Member
Oct 3, 2013
1,292
56
91
Baylor was never going to leap OSU if OSU won out. Even though TCU was ranked higher they still lost to baylor, so leaving out baylor and putting TCU in would be strange.

OSU started their 3rd string qb and destroyed a very good wisconsin team. That basically did it.
 

postmortemIA

Diamond Member
Jul 11, 2006
7,721
40
91
6 would be perfect with last 4 fighting for last 2 spots. I don't think 7th or 8th are remotely close for championship.

And big 12 got what they deserve for being stupid and locked in 10 teams and no championship game. There are probably half dozen schools that are good enough candidates to join in.
 

Fingolfin269

Lifer
Feb 28, 2003
17,948
31
91
They really need to go to some system where the major conferences have an automatic playoff berth and then some committee like this gets to choose At Large and seedings. Obviously this is like basketball but on a much smaller scale in terms of # of teams.

Example:

SEC - Alabama
Pac 10 - Oregon
ACC - Florida State
Big 10 - Ohio State
Big 12 - Baylor (Co-champ but would win via head to head in this example)
At Large #1 - TCU
At Large #2 - Ole Miss
At Large #3 - Michigan St.

Could limit to just 1 At Large team if you want a bye week for the top 2 but once again you get back to having people select the top 2 so in my opinion we should keep this even.

So just based on computer rankings* I came up with the following:

1) Alabama
8) Michigan State

2) Oregon
7) Ole Miss

3) TCU
6) Baylor

4) Ohio State
5) Florida State

*Based on computer rankings the 8th team would Mississippi State. In this example of an 8 team playoff I do think there should be some rule where only 2 teams from a single conference can participate.

Someone is always going to be left out of these things but in this case I do think it's better than what we have because at least your major conferences will always have a rep.
 

Ferzerp

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 1999
6,438
107
106
I'd also like to throw out that in my opinion FSU should be #1. Defending national champions and undefeated yet they are #3? Come on man!

Do you feel that FSU has a chance in hell of beating any of the other three teams? Truly?
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
It's probably the right 4 teams. But I think FSU should be ranked #1 too. By ranking them #3 they're basically making them play an away game with long travel and I don't think that's right. FSU fans had to pay to get to CA last yr; it's too far and too expensive for most. And in bowl games you general want to travel to new places.

IIRC, the fear of having 3 undefeated teams led to this playoff system. So the answer to that is having a committee that undervalues wins and awards for "quality losses"? That makes no sense.

So, I'm unhappy with the committee and prefer to see them gone. They didn't follow the guidelines they were given by the colleges (presidents and AD's) when doing the weekly rankings. IIRC the guidelines were: wins, SOS, head-to-head results and conference championships.

Their weekly rankings and explanations were inconsistent. The metrics they used departed from those issued by the presidents and AD's. Whatever they did use was vague, often contradictory, poorly explained and confused.

I prefer we use the old BCS rankings to determine the 4 teams. I don't know why the powers that be decided we needed a committee. By the time the BCS was phased out the ranking system was generally accepted as pretty good (except the Alabama v Auburn mistake, but the 4 team system would've negated that anyway).

Yes, I'm an alum of FSU.

Fern
 
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Fingolfin269

Lifer
Feb 28, 2003
17,948
31
91
Do you feel that FSU has a chance in hell of beating any of the other three teams? Truly?

I really don't know but do know Vegas favors the Ducks. But I do know for a fact that FSU has not lost in 2 years. They are the defending national champions. They have the #2 "Strength of Record" this year (behind #1 Alabama) which basically reflects the chance of an average Top 25 team having the same record as them if they played the same schedule.

Basically the fact that they are undefeated (again) is not a product of a weak schedule. They may not win pretty but they do win.
 

postmortemIA

Diamond Member
Jul 11, 2006
7,721
40
91
So you think the rankings have been wrong all year?

Fern

Do you think fsu is better than tcu? Tcu lost one close game by 3 points by #5. Fsu had few unranked teams self destroy themselves in last few minutes.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Do you think fsu is better than tcu? Tcu lost one close game by 3 points by #5. Fsu had few unranked teams self destroy themselves in last few minutes.

IDK TCU much. I don't think I've seen them play this year.

Bear in mind that as national champions FSU had every opponent on the schedule game plan for them during the off season and all yr long. Most of their opponents had a bye week scheduled before the game with FSU (the ACC did this). The Univ of FL had a cupcake FCS team scheduled the week before the FSU game. It was basically a bye week for them too. This is why back-to-back undefeated seasons are very rare. You get everybody's best effort, from game planning to emotional focus.

Also, unlike last season, FSU had a lot of injuries this year. We've had an awful lot of true freshman playing for us. Heck, we've even had to play some walk-on's at times. And I'm not talking about garbage time either (unlike last year we didn't really have any of that).

Fern
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Not having an 8 team playoff system is stupid

Too many games IMO. Heck, I already think we have too many now for college kids. For the record I think the NFL has too many also.

Fern
 

smackababy

Lifer
Oct 30, 2008
27,024
79
86
So you think the rankings have been wrong all year?

Fern

I think FSU has a very weak schedule and doesn't deserve the top spot. I don't think FSU could beat out the team Alabama lost to, let alone beat them. A lot of FSU's wins were very close to unranked teams. Sure, they won, but they weren't convincing. There is no way they are better than Alabama, and I'd put them below Oregon as well.


This was an interesting season with a lot of teams losing early to good teams that lost later and screwed themselves.
 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,573
5,096
136
Basically the fact that they are undefeated (again) is not a product of a weak schedule. They may not win pretty but they do win.


Actually, given FSU's SOS of 36, I'd say a weaker schedule did indeed help FSU stay undefeated. And undefeated isn't everything, is it? If it was, why wasn't Marshall ranked in the top 4 while it was undefeated at 11-0?
 

bunnyfubbles

Lifer
Sep 3, 2001
12,248
3
0
1. FSU has played a weak schedule, they do have some wins against quality opponents but they have 0 statement wins unlike last season where they were blowing everyone out.

2. FSU's stats are amongst the worst of the top 6 teams

they're the only top 6 team not in the top 10 in total offense, ranked 26th, and are 29th in scoring, whereas the 4 of the top 6 are *top 4* in scoring and Alabama is 18th.

They're 104th in rushing yards per game so clearly they rely on the pass but are worse than TCU/Balyor/Oregon

3. just watching them play they have several games where the other team is practically tripping over themselves as if to try and lose the game on purpose.

Honestly, I'm surprised OSU didn't leap over FSU, and I also think the only reason FSU is in the final four is because they have no losses, not because the committee thinks they're a top 4 team. While I can knock them for reason #3, it could be considered an intangible element to their team, because, and you really have to give them credit for it, FSU really doesn't panic while the other team somehow always finds a way to crack under the pressure of the knowledge that FSU won't lie down; OSU won a championship in a similar fashion back in '03, so it makes sense to give FSU that chance, but with a 4 team playoff we don't have to give them benefit of the doubt anymore, we can rank them where we think they should be ranked without keeping them out of the playoffs entirely.

BTW, in the BCS system FSU would be ranked #2 behind Alabama, so no, they shouldn't be #1 even under the old system.

It's probably the right 4 teams. But I think FSU should be ranked #1 too. By ranking them #3 they're basically making them play an away game with long travel and I don't think that's right. FSU fans had to pay to get to CA last yr; it's too far and too expensive for most. And in bowl games you general want to travel to new places.

IIRC, the fear of having 3 undefeated teams led to this playoff system. So the answer to that is having a committee that undervalues wins and awards for "quality losses"? That makes no sense.

So, I'm unhappy with the committee and prefer to see them gone. They didn't follow the guidelines they were given by the colleges (presidents and AD's) when doing the weekly rankings. IIRC the guidelines were: wins, SOS, head-to-head results and conference championships.

Their weekly rankings and explanations were inconsistent. The metrics they used departed from those issued by the presidents and AD's. Whatever they did use was vague, often contradictory, poorly explained and confused.

I prefer we use the old BCS rankings to determine the 4 teams. I don't know why the powers that be decided we needed a committee. By the time the BCS was phased out the ranking system was generally accepted as pretty good (except the Alabama v Auburn mistake, but the 4 team system would've negated that anyway).

Yes, I'm an alum of FSU.

Fern

its ultimately no different: https://twitter.com/BCSKnowHow/status/541636716332077056/photo/1

simulated BCS:
#1: Alabama
#2: FSU
#3: Oregon
#4: OSU
 

Balt

Lifer
Mar 12, 2000
12,674
482
126
It's great that more teams get a shot at the NC in the new system. It's less great that there's still arbitrary bullshit. A few weeks after deciding TCU was good enough to leapfrog FSU, the committee just drops them from the top 4 entirely.

Pulling for FSU, but I don't think they're playing at the same speed as Oregon right now. The defense is going to have to step up, and Jameis needs to come out strong from the beginning like he did last night.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
-snip-
BTW, in the BCS system FSU would be ranked #2 behind Alabama, so no, they shouldn't be #1 even under the old system

I don't think we know that. I.e., not all elements of the old BCS ranking system still exist IIRC. E.g., I don't think the Harris poll exists now.

Fern
 

smackababy

Lifer
Oct 30, 2008
27,024
79
86
It's great that more teams get a shot at the NC in the new system. It's less great that there's still arbitrary bullshit. A few weeks after deciding TCU was good enough to leapfrog FSU, the committee just drops them from the top 4 entirely.

Pulling for FSU, but I don't think they're playing at the same speed as Oregon right now. The defense is going to have to step up, and Jameis needs to come out strong from the beginning like he did last night.

There has to be arbitrary bullshit to rank these teams. And strength of schedule and performance against those strong teams is a not arbitrary. FSU simply didn't have that and they didn't have enough large wins. Barely winning against unranked teams late in the season is just not indicative of a ranked 1 team.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
-snip-
Honestly, I'm surprised OSU didn't leap over FSU, and I also think the only reason FSU is in the final four is because they have no losses, not because the committee thinks they're a top 4 team.

FSU has a higher SOS and SOR ranking than OSU. I don't see why they should be ranked ahead of FSU.

FSU has wins over 3 ranked teams. I can't find it, does anybody know how many the other playoff teams have?

Fern
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
There has to be arbitrary bullshit to rank these teams. And strength of schedule and performance against those strong teams is a not arbitrary. FSU simply didn't have that and they didn't have enough large wins. Barely winning against unranked teams late in the season is just not indicative of a ranked 1 team.

Yeah, SOS is arbitrary.

E.g., if we start out with assumption at the beginning of the season that the SEC is great, based on nothing more than the so-called "eye test", then wins against them are given more weight and losses are called "quality losses". The whole SOS is based upon subjective ranking.

In addition, you have factors that aren't/can't be weighed. E.g., FSU played Clemson when their quarterback was healthy. Later, he was injured and didn't play and Clemson suffered.

BTW: I noticed last week that ACC went 4-0 versus the SEC.

Other than the win/loss records, everything has a substantial element of subjectivity, including how you interpret the win/loss record.

Week in and week out college football sees teams pumped up, and teams that are flat. Teams with injuries and teams without. There are major upsets etc.

That's why we put the teams on the field and play the games folks. Anybody who thinks it can be predicted by distilling it down some metrics should try getting wealthy by betting on college football games.

Fern
 

ussfletcher

Platinum Member
Apr 16, 2005
2,569
2
81
They really need to go to some system where the major conferences have an automatic playoff berth and then some committee like this gets to choose At Large and seedings.

I agree. They replaced the old BCS system with basically a new BCS system.
 

smackababy

Lifer
Oct 30, 2008
27,024
79
86
Win/loss when you have 117 (IIRC) division 1 teams and everyone doesn't play everyone is not subjective in the least.

SOS is a valid comparison; FSU played 4 ranked teams (ranked at the time of their meeting) and barely won them. Oregon played 4 ranked teams (ranked at time of meeting) and blew them all out. They did, however, lose to Arizona early in the season who ended the season at #7, who Oregon destroyed. Alabama played 6 ranked teams, one which was a loss and one which was a win against the number 1 ranked team.

If you really think FSU, by any metric other than win percentage against different teams, is better than Alabama or Oregon, please provide something to back that up.
 

Mermaidman

Diamond Member
Sep 4, 2003
7,987
93
91
Too many games IMO. Heck, I already think we have too many now for college kids. . .

Fern

I am agreeing with a plant. (A primitive plant, no less!) These are student-athletes who need time to attend classes and study for tests, etc.
 
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