- Apr 6, 2001
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So I watched on Netflix Mars. 2016 Season 1 - Fact meets fiction in this docudrama of a spacecraft crew as it embarks in 2033 on a mission to colonize the red planet. With the first permanent base established by 2037.
It was an OKay show, but in my opinion, a bit of an unrealistic in its time table. Yes I understand that if we humans become a multi planet species, the chances of humans getting wiped out by a cataclysmic event drops to pretty much zero, but what is the rush? It is not like humankind will start dying off in 14 years. Don't get me wrong, I do think we should start the process, but I think we should do a lot more long range planning of a 200 to 500 year timespan.
Something like the following:
1) Establish a permanent base on the Moon within the next 20 years. It would be set up similar to the Antarctic research stations we currently have. We can learn a lot from the Moon, and if something bad happens, help is only 3 days away vs. Mars at the earliest 8 months away.
2) Within the next 50 years, set up the first Lunar colony. This colony's primary purpose would be for mining and manufacturing. It would be a lot easier to manufacture and launch sections of an assembly station into Lunar orbit. Once built, the mining and manufacturing on the moon would shift to producing spacecraft components, then launch them to the assembly station. This assembly station would build the needed spacecraft to actually travel to Mars, plus supply water for rocket fuel and for consumption by the crews. It would also manufacture all needed components for establishing a permanent base on Phobos and Mars.
3) Within the next 70 years, establish a permanent base on Phobos. Phobos would need to be thoroughly explored for resources. If water and CO2 can be sourced on Phobos, fuel in-situ-resource utilization (ISRU) would be possible there too. With fuel from Phobos less fuel is needed over all because the fuel for Trans Earth Injection (TEI) would not need to be lifted up from Mars. It would enable larger payloads back to earth as well. The crew at the Phobos Station would tele-operating robotic equipment on the Martian surface to construct the permanent base on Mars. People would be able to shuttle between Phobos and the Martian surface to carry out exploration. This would permit more extensive tele-robotic exploration of the Martian surface for resources before deciding where to situate a permanent Mars base. The Phobos Station would initially be completely re-supplied from Earth, while trying to transition to Mars ISRU. Perhaps it could also serve as a springboard for missions to the asteroid belt, including asteroid ISRU.
4) Within the next 100 years establish the first permanent base on Mars. Continue with the exploration and determine the sites for multiple permanent base locations.
5) Within 150 years, establish the first permanent colony on Mars. This first colony would be the proving grounds to see if true colonization without total failure can happen. It is not a short term experiment, and has a goal of being completely self sufficient within 100 years.
6) If Everything works as planned, within the next 250 years, start the construction of follow on colonies.
7) At the 300 year mark, two more Mars colonies would be established, and more would be in development.
My opinion, even this timetable is a bit aggressive, and it probably should be stretched to 400 or 500 years. What is your opinion?
It was an OKay show, but in my opinion, a bit of an unrealistic in its time table. Yes I understand that if we humans become a multi planet species, the chances of humans getting wiped out by a cataclysmic event drops to pretty much zero, but what is the rush? It is not like humankind will start dying off in 14 years. Don't get me wrong, I do think we should start the process, but I think we should do a lot more long range planning of a 200 to 500 year timespan.
Something like the following:
1) Establish a permanent base on the Moon within the next 20 years. It would be set up similar to the Antarctic research stations we currently have. We can learn a lot from the Moon, and if something bad happens, help is only 3 days away vs. Mars at the earliest 8 months away.
2) Within the next 50 years, set up the first Lunar colony. This colony's primary purpose would be for mining and manufacturing. It would be a lot easier to manufacture and launch sections of an assembly station into Lunar orbit. Once built, the mining and manufacturing on the moon would shift to producing spacecraft components, then launch them to the assembly station. This assembly station would build the needed spacecraft to actually travel to Mars, plus supply water for rocket fuel and for consumption by the crews. It would also manufacture all needed components for establishing a permanent base on Phobos and Mars.
3) Within the next 70 years, establish a permanent base on Phobos. Phobos would need to be thoroughly explored for resources. If water and CO2 can be sourced on Phobos, fuel in-situ-resource utilization (ISRU) would be possible there too. With fuel from Phobos less fuel is needed over all because the fuel for Trans Earth Injection (TEI) would not need to be lifted up from Mars. It would enable larger payloads back to earth as well. The crew at the Phobos Station would tele-operating robotic equipment on the Martian surface to construct the permanent base on Mars. People would be able to shuttle between Phobos and the Martian surface to carry out exploration. This would permit more extensive tele-robotic exploration of the Martian surface for resources before deciding where to situate a permanent Mars base. The Phobos Station would initially be completely re-supplied from Earth, while trying to transition to Mars ISRU. Perhaps it could also serve as a springboard for missions to the asteroid belt, including asteroid ISRU.
4) Within the next 100 years establish the first permanent base on Mars. Continue with the exploration and determine the sites for multiple permanent base locations.
5) Within 150 years, establish the first permanent colony on Mars. This first colony would be the proving grounds to see if true colonization without total failure can happen. It is not a short term experiment, and has a goal of being completely self sufficient within 100 years.
6) If Everything works as planned, within the next 250 years, start the construction of follow on colonies.
7) At the 300 year mark, two more Mars colonies would be established, and more would be in development.
My opinion, even this timetable is a bit aggressive, and it probably should be stretched to 400 or 500 years. What is your opinion?