Consumer Confidence Soars in December

[dullard]

Originally posted by: ntdz
There is nothing wrong with being cautious. What I have a problem with is the inability of certain people to accept good news for it is...GOOD NEWS. They have to bring in other economic stories that seemingly prove the economic is terrible to counteract any good news. I hate pessimism, that's all.

Well, there are lots of stories that do show we are on unstable foundations. We get one month of good data followed by one month of bad data. Look at housing for example. Record gains in November but record drops in December. This cyclical pattern in housing has been going on for about 6 months. Same goes with GDP, inflation, and other common measures. A great economy would have good GDP, low inflation, etc without all these bumps. A good economy with unstable foundation has good GDP, low inflation, etc but lots of fluctuations. If we hit one bad bump in these oscillations, we may be thrown off the good economy course.

Unfounded exubberance is very dangerous. If you ignore the bad news and only look at the good news, you are setting yourself up for disaster when things do finally turn sour. Your unabated optimism (as well as others) will encourage the country to live beyond its means and be unprepared for the future. Basically, optimism will make a mild recession very disasterous. A recession will eventually happen - they cannot be avoided forever.

A pessimist is always happy - things are always better than expected and he is always prepared for the worst. Meaning there are procedures in place to make the bad things go away quickly.

An optimist is always unhappy. Things never go as well as hoped. And he is never prepared for the worst. Meaning there is nothing available to combat the bad things and they stick around for a long time.

 

[GoPackGo]

Originally posted by: conjur
It would "seem" to go with your earlier thread if your earlier thread were accurate. I noticed you turned tail and ran away from your own thread once the truth about the "growth" was posted.


As for this, the recent drop in gas prices and the lower-than-expected rise in heating bills are likely behind it (plus the overall holiday mood).

If this is a continued trend and market fundamentals become something worth talking about, then I'd toot a horn. In the meantime, your trolling topic summary is noted and dismissed.

My guess its another credit card christmas.

People want to at least pretend things are good during christmas

 

[Engineer]

I think this is great news. I'm going investing after the first of the year with my new, completely DEBT FREE lifestyle (everything including home PAID OFF). I hope the consumers buy everything from every company I invest in. I've decided not to join them (in their credit spending and non saving ways), I've decided to beat them!

Hopefully energy won't be a thorn in my side, but I guess I could invest in some of that energy!

:thumbsup:

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Engineer
I think this is great news. I'm going investing after the first of the year with my new, completely DEBT FREE lifestyle (everything including home PAID OFF). I hope the consumers buy everything from every company I invest in. I've decided not to join them (in their credit spending and non saving ways), I've decided to beat them!

Hopefully energy won't be a thorn in my side, but I guess I could invest in some of that energy!

:thumbsup:

:thumbsup:

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: conjur
See my edit above. I'd bet $100 you haven't read that article which lays it all out.

Also, there's that EPI article I've posted a couple of times up here.


You take one month's positive news and declare victory. It's senseless and inane. You haven't "won" anything.

No, I'm not declaring victory or anything similar, I just want some liberals to admit its good news...thats ALL I want, and I can't even get that from you. You always have to come back with some stupid study or something totally unrelated to try to downplay good news, it's your M.O. At least bowfinger and todd33 admitted it's good news, can't you follow suit?

It is good news for what it is ... a single piece of data. The issue is that it is only one piece of a very complex puzzle. In order to understand the health of the economy, one must look at that whole puzzle, not just cherry-picked bits and pieces. The "stupid study" you whine about provides a much broader view, and it is very directly related to your OP, whether you like it or not.



(PS. Even though you know better, I see you continue to insinuate that anti-Bush == liberal. It doesn't, no matter how many times Rush&Co preach otherwise.)

 

[conjur]

BTW, ntdz, have you bothered to even click the link to that WaPo article? It includes someone from your favorite think-thank (Heritage Foundation):

While Washington plunged into a procedural fight over a pair of judicial nominees, Stuart Butler, head of domestic policy at the conservative Heritage Foundation, and Isabel Sawhill, director of the left-leaning Brookings Institution's economic studies program, sat down with Comptroller General David M. Walker to bemoan what they jointly called the budget "nightmare."

 

[BBond]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: BBond
Setting up a bullsh!t assumption then saying someone will tear it down then calling yourself "right" for predicting it is the height of trolling.

It's not bullshit if it happened, now is it?

It's bullsh!t if you try to frame a simple return to previous levels after Bush and his band of idiots dropped the ball on Katrina as "Soaring".

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: ntdz
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/12/28/D8EPDG7OI.html

The report is closely watched because consumer spending drives about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, and gains in sentiment tend to precede increases in spending.

That would seem to go with my earlier thread about holiday spending up 8.7% from last year.

This cannot be seen as anything other than good news, and there will still be people trying to downplay it...

The Index of Consumer Sentiment was 91.5 in the December 2006 survey, up from 81.6 in November and the recent low of 74.2 in October. Despite the recent gains, the Sentiment Index remained well below last December?s 97.1. The Index of Consumer Expectations, a closely watched component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, rose to 80.2 in December 2005, up from 69.6 in November and 63.2 in October, but it remained below the 90.9 recorded in the December 2004 survey

Keep trying to blow sunshine up our a$$es though, makes for a good chuckle.

 

[azazyel]

An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

I think this is similar to people pointing to a cold winter and then gleefully claiming that global warming is not an issue. As with most trends, there will be ups and downs. Unfortunately, the problem of the economic force of global labor wage arbitrage is still around in spite of any small packets of positive data that we might receive. Thus, I think that the overall trend will continue to be downward over time for as long as we continue to maintain our current policies.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper
I think this is similar to people pointing to a cold winter and then gleefully claiming that global warming is not an issue.

I'd say the better comparison would be some people pointing to March and gleefully claiming that the temperatures are rising and it'll never be cold again. Blissfully unaware that another winter will come next December.

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper
I think this is similar to people pointing to a cold winter and then gleefully claiming that global warming is not an issue.

I'd say the better comparison would be some people pointing to March and gleefully claiming that the temperatures are rising and it'll never be cold again. Blissfully unaware that another winter will come next December.

I think you missed the humor in that first sentence

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: ntdz
There is nothing wrong with being cautious. What I have a problem with is the inability of certain people to accept good news for it is...GOOD NEWS. They have to bring in other economic stories that seemingly prove the economic is terrible to counteract any good news. I hate pessimism, that's all.

Well, there are lots of stories that do show we are on unstable foundations. We get one month of good data followed by one month of bad data. Look at housing for example. Record gains in November but record drops in December. This cyclical pattern in housing has been going on for about 6 months. Same goes with GDP, inflation, and other common measures. A great economy would have good GDP, low inflation, etc without all these bumps. A good economy with unstable foundation has good GDP, low inflation, etc but lots of fluctuations. If we hit one bad bump in these oscillations, we may be thrown off the good economy course.

What parts of the economy are on shakey foundations. OVerall the economy seems pretty healthy. There are of course parts of the economy where things could be better, but that is always the case. Alll economic indicators are never all poiinted in the positive direction all the time.

Unfounded exubberance is very dangerous. If you ignore the bad news and only look at the good news, you are setting yourself up for disaster when things do finally turn sour. Your unabated optimism (as well as others) will encourage the country to live beyond its means and be unprepared for the future. Basically, optimism will make a mild recession very disasterous. A recession will eventually happen - they cannot be avoided forever.

Unfounded gloom is probably more dangerous. A recent survey reveiled that a large chunk of the US population thought we are currently in a recession. It is not healthy for the media to harp the bad news on the front page and hide the good news on the back page. For now the US economy is is pretty healthy.

A pessimist is always happy - things are always better than expected and he is always prepared for the worst. Meaning there are procedures in place to make the bad things go away quickly.

I would disagree as a pessimist will always see the worst in things, even when they are good.

An optimist is always unhappy. Things never go as well as hoped. And he is never prepared for the worst. Meaning there is nothing available to combat the bad things and they stick around for a long time.

I would disagree on this too. An optimist will realize that when things dont go as hoped, they are also realize that things could have gone worse.

 

[her209]

"Oh look, the economy is going up!"

"Oh look, the economy is going down!"

(rinse)

(repeat)

 

[zendari]

Buh, buh, buh, buh, gloom and doom!

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: zendari
Buh, buh, buh, buh, gloom and doom!

Here's your normal smartass

You're a terrible waste of youth in this country! :roll:

 

[TallBill]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: zendari
Buh, buh, buh, buh, gloom and doom!

Here's your normal smartass

You're a terrible waste of youth in this country! :roll:

Nawh, someones gotta cover the lower end of the IQ spectrum. If there werren't so many dumb people, my IQ would probably drop 20 points!

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: her209
"Oh look, the economy is going up!"

"Oh look, the economy is going down!"

(rinse)

(repeat)

The pattern set by the Republican liars is very clear.

They will lightly admit the Economy is in the tank next year and a good part of 2007. Then they will concock a bunch of fooey that the Economy has turned around in time for the Nov 2008 Election.

 

[Pabster]

No surprise. Economic indicators have been steadily going up for some time now.

The only ones with the 'gloom and doom' nonsense are a select few here and the mainstream media.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Pabster
No surprise. Economic indicators have been steadily going up for some time now.

The only ones with the 'gloom and doom' nonsense are a select few here and the mainstream media.

I've watched many channels of mainstream media, including FoxNews :shocked:, and I don't see all of the 'gloom and doom' that you talk about. Most that I've saw are rather bullish on the US economy for the forseeable future!

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Pabster
No surprise. Economic indicators have been steadily going up for some time now.

The only ones with the 'gloom and doom' nonsense are a select few here and the mainstream media.

I've watched many channels of mainstream media, including FoxNews :shocked:, and I don't see all of the 'gloom and doom' that you talk about. Most that I've saw are rather bullish on the US economy for the forseeable future!

Same here, I don't see any mainstream media bashing the economy right now...For obvious reasons.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Pabster
No surprise. Economic indicators have been steadily going up for some time now.

The only ones with the 'gloom and doom' nonsense are a select few here and the mainstream media.

I've watched many channels of mainstream media, including FoxNews :shocked:, and I don't see all of the 'gloom and doom' that you talk about. Most that I've saw are rather bullish on the US economy for the forseeable future!

Same here, I don't see any mainstream media bashing the economy right now...For obvious reasons.

Is that reason because the "doom and gloom" agenda of the "liberals" is all in your head? You and Pabster and God only knows who else have this imaginary liberal faction that rejoyces in bad economic news, and that spins all positive news into something bad. But maybe, and this is a crazy thought, maybe the hated liberals are simply being realistic and cautious. After several years of a pretty bad economic outlook, it seems acceptable not to immediatly jump on the bandwagon of economic recovery. Now that the outlook does indeed look like it's going to be more positive, almost everyone seems to be getting onboard, if cautiously at first.

In fact, the only time I hear about doom and gloom is when you guys are bitching about it.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Pabster
No surprise. Economic indicators have been steadily going up for some time now.

The only ones with the 'gloom and doom' nonsense are a select few here and the mainstream media.

I've watched many channels of mainstream media, including FoxNews :shocked:, and I don't see all of the 'gloom and doom' that you talk about. Most that I've saw are rather bullish on the US economy for the forseeable future!

Same here, I don't see any mainstream media bashing the economy right now...For obvious reasons.

Is that reason because the "doom and gloom" agenda of the "liberals" is all in your head? You and Pabster and God only knows who else have this imaginary liberal faction that rejoyces in bad economic news, and that spins all positive news into something bad. But maybe, and this is a crazy thought, maybe the hated liberals are simply being realistic and cautious. After several years of a pretty bad economic outlook, it seems acceptable not to immediatly jump on the bandwagon of economic recovery. Now that the outlook does indeed look like it's going to be more positive, almost everyone seems to be getting onboard, if cautiously at first.

In fact, the only time I hear about doom and gloom is when you guys are bitching about it.

ANd this is where i disagree. There have now been a couple good years of solid growth and the entire time the press has only been trumpeting ever bad portion of the economy. Is this a case of it bleeds it leads or political bias. I dont know but I would lean to later. There are numerous examples of press treating similar economic news different based up who is office. CNN rewarded clinton for unemployment being a 5.5%, bush got slammd for it. There are also numerous examples of papers running the bad news front page, but burying the good news.

I can understand the cautioned outlook, but we have solid growth for over 2 years now, It appear there are some that want right the doom and gloom right into the next recession. I guess with this attitude, one day they will be right.

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Pabster
No surprise. Economic indicators have been steadily going up for some time now.

The only ones with the 'gloom and doom' nonsense are a select few here and the mainstream media.

I've watched many channels of mainstream media, including FoxNews :shocked:, and I don't see all of the 'gloom and doom' that you talk about. Most that I've saw are rather bullish on the US economy for the forseeable future!

Same here, I don't see any mainstream media bashing the economy right now...For obvious reasons.

Is that reason because the "doom and gloom" agenda of the "liberals" is all in your head? You and Pabster and God only knows who else have this imaginary liberal faction that rejoyces in bad economic news, and that spins all positive news into something bad. But maybe, and this is a crazy thought, maybe the hated liberals are simply being realistic and cautious. After several years of a pretty bad economic outlook, it seems acceptable not to immediatly jump on the bandwagon of economic recovery. Now that the outlook does indeed look like it's going to be more positive, almost everyone seems to be getting onboard, if cautiously at first.

In fact, the only time I hear about doom and gloom is when you guys are bitching about it.

When I refer to liberals, I'm talking about people like you, conjur, dave, etc...Not the average American liberal.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: Rainsford
Is that reason because the "doom and gloom" agenda of the "liberals" is all in your head? You and Pabster and God only knows who else have this imaginary liberal faction that rejoyces in bad economic news, and that spins all positive news into something bad. But maybe, and this is a crazy thought, maybe the hated liberals are simply being realistic and cautious. After several years of a pretty bad economic outlook, it seems acceptable not to immediatly jump on the bandwagon of economic recovery. Now that the outlook does indeed look like it's going to be more positive, almost everyone seems to be getting onboard, if cautiously at first.

Liberals being "realistic"?

Let's be honest here. You read the NY Times front pages lately?

Look how desperately they tried to downplay the holiday shopping sales and portray the economy as down in the dumps... (And they were hardly alone.)

In fact, the only time I hear about doom and gloom is when you guys are bitching about it.

Perhaps your news sources are more balanced?