How many dead? All of them. All the folks with conditions that cant get the shot plus the part of your country that is dum dum land.. wipe out 20% of all the elders in dum dum land.
In short, a fuckton or dead.
His argument is that its gonna happen anyway. Let it rip.
To some degree, it will happen anyway because the U.S. is mostly out of the mitigation game. There's approx. 0% chance there will be any kind of new lockdowns even if conditions significantly worsen (and it appears the next few weeks are gonna get pretty messy). Most likely, winter will be worse. Local jurisdictions may act, but we're not going back to April 2020 nationally.
I haven't read this entire thread, but anklebiter is pretty consistent in his flawed (but not completely asinine) views. For some reason, he thinks that you can take L.A. County and its 53% vaccination rate (and high infections rate), and then extrapolate that to everywhere else in the country. IF L.A. County is as close to herd immunity as he suggests, then the current surge will burn out very quickly. But even if that's true in L.A., it's not true for many parts of the U.S. Furthermore, he complained about the expense of $15 vaccine doses (the J&J single shot is much cheaper) when hospitalizations are incredibly expensive to administer. Nobody in their right mind wants to intentionally stress (or crash) their own hospital systems just to "save money" on vaccines. I'm actually not one who believes "every life is precious," but sitting here and suggesting the pandemic in the U.S. is nearly over and a few people's deaths are part of that is still fairly callous, and likely premature.
I also think he's wrong about the IFR; it's somewhat unknowable and can only be estimated but most reasonable ones I've seen are about 0.5%.
And besides variants partially escaping current vaccines, you also have variants that can escape immunity from prior infections. This hasn't been discussed all that much, but there was the city in Brazil that was
assumed to be close to herd immunity after a devastating surge in 2020. And yet, it happened to them again during the winter. Many cases in South Africa were also "reinfections," i.e. people who caught the original strain later on caught the SA strain. I can't remember who said it a few months ago when the pandemic looked like it was slowly ending in the U.S., but they said Covid-19 has continually surprised over time, so expect that to happen again. (This was before Delta swept across the world.)