That's just not accurate. The easist ballpark way to see whether or not a country can make payments on its debt is to check its debt/GDP ratio. Ours is most certainly still within the manageable range, and our debt/GDP ratio has in fact been higher in the past than it is today. So not only is inflation low now, but it does not necessarily need to be higher in the future. (although a modestly higher inflation rate would probably be a good thing)
Most interestingly, the market has no expectations for significant US inflation in the future, as evidenced by 10 year bond prices. If you DO think we're going to have major inflation coming you can bet against the market and make a killing. I will warn you however that quite a few people have been trying to do that for the last five years and have lost an awfully large amount of money.
So we agree inflation will be needed. The reason I think we'll need more of it than you is because you trust the government more. You trust them to spend less, take in more, and eventually get federal spending under control. There's nothing wrong with having faith in people, but I don't think that's realistic. I think something pretty bad would have to happen for politicians to stop spending and spending. Right now, there's not much reason for them to stop.
I don't think it's a common misunderstanding, at least it's not a misunderstanding I hold. And no, the only two options are not inflation or ridiculous taxes. The other option is continued economic growth.
That's fine, I wasn't saying you were mistaken. Again, when I say that those are the only 2 ways, I am assuming that no matter the economic growth, politicians have little reason to balance a budget then stick to it.
There is absolutely zero evidence of anyone 'losing faith in the dollar'. The reason the debt ceiling might cause market panic has nothing to do with raising the debt ceiling, it had to do with NOT raising the debt ceiling. ie: if the US government decided it would no longer take on any more debt.
People have enormous faith in the US government, despite it's free spending ways. That's why US bond prices are so low. They are in fact so low at the moment that in many cases recently investors have been willing to take negative returns on them. That means they have so much faith in the US government that the government can dictate terms in which investors are paying the US money so that the US can borrow from them.
If this was true, nobody would care about credit downgrades. People do have enormous faith in the US dollar, yes. It is still the standard currency of the entire world. What I am saying, is alot of our economic strength and therefore world power, comes from this. We get the benefit of the doubt, every time. However, our good grace with the world is not infinite. What happens when the national debt is 25tn? What about 50tn? Again, I'm assuming it will continue to rise. If it were to stop rising, that would mean we cut medicare/aid and/or SS. That would mean an economic downturn, and I have no reason to believe that would be an easy transition at all.
I do hope you're not one of those who believes in some sort of infinite amount of economic prosperity that America just hasn't tapped into yet. There is not going to be some sort of major source of spending power that pops up out of fairy land in the foreseeable future. Economic growth is good, but let's be realistic about it.
I'm not sure, did people in the 50's and 60's experience hard times from the huge debt we ran up in WW2? (a debt larger than we have now) I haven't noticed it yet, so when are we going to be paying for the sins of the 1930's and 40's?
First, yes, someone did pay for that. Second, when you consider the circumstances under which we took on the debt, then the circumstances under which we paid it, is there really any comparison? The reason Americans were ok with that debt, and ok with 90% tax rates, was that we were in a global war. It was a fight to survive. Do you honestly think politicians are going to be elected anytime in the near future who are going to significantly raise taxes? First thing Obama did his first term, he extended the Bush tax cuts. There wasn't even any significant talk of changes. Post-WWII, there were several factors that lead to incredible economic expansion. I trust you know the generality of the thing. Those factors are not present, nor will they be. If we're going to pay off this debt, it will be the old fashioned way. We will cut spending, raise taxes, and keep them there till the debt is paid off.
Again, there are alot of people will all the faith in the world that our good government will take care of us. Just keep giving them more and more money, and all our worries will be solved. I just don't think that's the way it works. Maybe with a different group of politicians, but this group has proven they'll spend everything you give them, then borrow from the future on top.
I really don't think we strongly disagree here. We both know that changes are needed in Washington for any good things to start happening on the national debt front.
I would have to say that if you look at the performance of the US as opposed to other countries that tried to cut spending during a depression our performance and even our long term debt outlook is considerably superior. I believe that not only was that spending necessary, but that we should have spent much more. We should still be spending more.
Well you're certainly entitled to that. I think our outlook is considerably superior not because of anything the government did (I think the government was mostly responsible for the recession in the first place, or at least the extent of it), I think the US is simply too good to fail. At least today. We have too many things going for us. There is our standing in world economics, there is our standing in technology, in medicine, there is our military. There is a long list of reasons nobody in this world is interested in seeing the US fail. And there are too many hard working people in this country to let the government screw it all up.
Alot of these things get completely attributed to the government. Some people blame the government entirely for the recession, and some people give the government absolute credit for the slow progress towards recovery we're seeing. It sounds like you're in the second camp. I disagree, and I think it is the hard work of Americans that is getting us back to where we need to be. Not politicians throwing unimaginable amounts of money at a problem they clearly don't understand; money someone else will have to repay.