Convergence - When and how?

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Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,471
2,427
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It will be interesting to see how Intel gets to that 7 watts.

For example, according to this Anandtech investigation the 45 watt TDP and 17 watt Ivy Bridge TDPs appear to be rated under different conditions.

45 watt i7 = TDP rated with both iGPU and CPU under turbo boost.
17 watt i5= TDP rated with iGPU at mostly full boost, but turbo on CPU is not active.





So I am wondering exactly how the 7 watt will be rated? (besides the obvious lower base clocks.)


I'm sure they are lowering gpu power consumption when cpu power consumption is high and vice-versa, only engaging full power for brief periods, etc..
 

Fx1

Golden Member
Aug 22, 2012
1,215
5
81
Why would u want to run a stupid little app on a desktop and run a big app on and stupid little screen.

Why are people so obessesed with making everything do everything.

Want to know why you have GOLF CLUBS and not a GOLF CLUB?
 

taltamir

Lifer
Mar 21, 2004
13,576
6
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No doubt the tablet experience outside of watching movies, viewing picture, and browsing can get frustrating in a hurry.
I just wanted to point out I do own a tablet.
Although I use it exclusively as a ebook reader. (I had bought and returned 3 book readers who use eInk... which totally sucks compared to an actual tablet with an LCD).

I have a nook tablet and owned a nexus 7 for a few months before returning it due to bugs in the google shop system making them unable to bill me (someone shipped it before they charged the CC which resulted in the order being both completed and pending, later completed and canceled at the same time, and forbidding further CC charges; they couldn't fix it and eventually I just got tired of the mess and the phone and sent it back).

I have software to do a bunch of things on those 2 tablets but I found myself easily frustrated with the clumsiness of the input and output and just walk to the nearest laptop/PC instead for many things
 
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dastral

Member
May 22, 2012
67
0
0
Right now I doubt ever. Its like trying to pick a bicycle and a car and unify the 2, while removing both the others.
There is no incentive to converge the 2.

I find this VERY misleading, it has already started (Asus Padphone) but i think you are missing the point.

I use my PC for League of Legends and Diablo3 and have a Galaxy Tab (the first one).
Put my i3-2100 / 8800GT /128Gb SSD in my Galaxy Tab with a 10 hour battery.... and i don't need a PC.
All i need is a keyboard, a screen, a mouse, and a docking station with a 10TB HDD.
Which if we had 2020's technology today would be quite easy...

Convergence is natural and unavoidable as computing power increases.
HOWEVER (and this is the big issue) manufacturers have ZERO incentive to to converge.

Why sell me a Hyper-Phone + DockingTablet + DockingDesktop
When you can sell me an iPhone, and iPad, and of course an iMac ?
Profit wise it makes absolutely no sense....
 

KingFatty

Diamond Member
Dec 29, 2010
3,034
1
81
Why would u want to run a stupid little app on a desktop and run a big app on and stupid little screen.

Why are people so obessesed with making everything do everything.

Want to know why you have GOLF CLUBS and not a GOLF CLUB?

Do you ever go on vacation, and fly somewhere in an airplane?

Wouldn't it be nice to just carry one single device, say a reasonably sized tablet with a keyboard/touchpad sleeve, and have everything at your fingertips?

I like your golf club analogy, but I think it's not the best analogy here. I think of it more like, would you want to have 18 different golf carts to play golf, having to switch between them just to access each hole, and not play a particular hole if you have the wrong golf cart?

I don't want to keep switching devices to use all my software that I own. I want to use the software as easily as possible. I think it's undeniable that there is software that is fine for desktop or tablet use, especially as tablets get bigger. Why artificially prevent me from running my desktop software on my tablet? IF I'm on the plane and I have to edit my excel spreadsheet and email it back to my boss, then it's great if I can do that on my tablet without having to buy an extra ticket to let my desktop computer sit on the seat next to me...
 

taltamir

Lifer
Mar 21, 2004
13,576
6
76
All i need is a keyboard, a screen, a mouse, and a docking station with a 10TB HDD.
Which if we had 2020's technology today would be quite easy...
The fact you still NEED a docking station actually proves his analogy to be correct about it being like combining a car and a bicycle and then needing either.

Convergence is natural and unavoidable as computing power increases.
HOWEVER (and this is the big issue) manufacturers have ZERO incentive to to converge.
Intel has proven you can converge to massive reduce cost to manufacture while still increasing cost to buy with their integration of north-bridge into the CPU.

Put my i3-2100 / 8800GT /128Gb SSD in my Galaxy Tab with a 10 hour battery.... and i don't need a PC.
Physics would like to have a few words with you. also i3-2100 / 8800GT barely plays modern graphics engines, much less outputting future resolutions and graphics quality. You need to render photorealistic graphics in real time.
D3 is a very non demanding game (as blizzard wanted it to work on older hardware to increase customer base).

I like your golf club analogy, but I think it's not the best analogy here. I think of it more like, would you want to have 18 different golf carts to play golf, having to switch between them just to access each hole, and not play a particular hole if you have the wrong golf cart?
No, his analogy is correct, its golf clubs not golf carts.
As time progresses and new devices are created people get more different kinds of electronics. People buy a laptop, desktop, smartphone, tablet, and TV. They don't remove devices as "no longer needed" but buy additional devices because even though what they wanted could have been done by any of the other devices they own, it couldn't have been done as well.
 
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taltamir

Lifer
Mar 21, 2004
13,576
6
76
Do you ever go on vacation, and fly somewhere in an airplane?

Wouldn't it be nice to just carry one single device, say a reasonably sized tablet with a keyboard/touchpad sleeve, and have everything at your fingertips?

I fly on business every 2 weeks. I go everywhere with:
1. Phone
2. Tablet
3. Laptop (with external wireless mouse)

Keyboard for tablet is not a replacement for laptop, at all. And will not be plausible to fit in an airplane (it needs to physically dock with it because space constraints mean you have to work at some awkward angles in a plane.)
I can't ever see convergence replacing any of those 3 in my travels, its just not practical for using.
 

KingFatty

Diamond Member
Dec 29, 2010
3,034
1
81
As time progresses and new devices are created people get more different kinds of electronics. People buy a laptop, desktop, smartphone, tablet, and TV. They don't remove devices as "no longer needed" but buy additional devices because even though what they wanted could have been done by any of the other devices they own, it couldn't have been done as well.

Why do you think someone would need both a laptop and a desktop?

I think in an ideal situation, you could buy a laptop and not need a desktop, because you'd just connect any peripherals to the laptop. You wouldn't need separate devices.

Or is there something I missing?

You seem to be begging the question about how people buy more devices because more devices are created? I'm not sure what you mean - are you saying that people are forced to buy more devices because there would be no other way to do something better?
 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,471
2,427
136
I find this VERY misleading, it has already started (Asus Padphone) but i think you are missing the point.

I use my PC for League of Legends and Diablo3 and have a Galaxy Tab (the first one).
Put my i3-2100 / 8800GT /128Gb SSD in my Galaxy Tab with a 10 hour battery.... and i don't need a PC.
All i need is a keyboard, a screen, a mouse, and a docking station with a 10TB HDD.
Which if we had 2020's technology today would be quite easy...

Convergence is natural and unavoidable as computing power increases.
HOWEVER (and this is the big issue) manufacturers have ZERO incentive to to converge.

Why sell me a Hyper-Phone + DockingTablet + DockingDesktop
When you can sell me an iPhone, and iPad, and of course an iMac ?
Profit wise it makes absolutely no sense....


I agree for the most part but I think that some manufacturers have incentive to converge and others to keep the status quo.

Obviously Intel would like convergence because it would instantly give them the lead in the ultramobile space. And the opportunity to sell millions of additional processors.
It would be good for Microsoft too because most people would want Windows and associated Windows apps. Also all of the Windows software developers could move their apps to ultramobile devices with only superficial changes to the GUI (for the most part).

The manufacturers of Android specific hardware and software will put up the battle. They will make Android more Windows like, we'll be able to get under the hood and tinker a bit more, more and better apps, etc.

As always the competition will be good for the consumer.
 

taltamir

Lifer
Mar 21, 2004
13,576
6
76
Why do you think someone would need both a laptop and a desktop?

Because carrying a large and comfortable monitor, keyboard, and mouse everywhere is too heavy and cumbersome.
And giving up the full sized equipment is unpleasant for gaming and even work
Not to mention issues of size, power consumption, and performance. We are many years away from having a laptop capable of rendering photo-realistic graphics and realistic physics in a high resolution.

I think in an ideal situation, you could buy a laptop and not need a desktop, because you'd just connect any peripherals to the laptop. You wouldn't need separate devices.

Or is there something I missing?
Well now, this is a question of definitions. Using a laptop instead of a tower for your desktop setup is essentially going back to the dock question.
You said "why would anyone have both"... for now and for years to come its because there is just no comparison in performance.

If one day we overcome the limitations physics place on the miniaturization of microchips and have sufficient processing power in a laptop then at that point a laptop docking station could replace the desktop. However, it is extremely important to point out that you did not eliminate a device.
Instead of having laptop + desktop you have a laptop + docking station. You merely exchanged one device (desktop) for another (docking station) as it is more economical in that purely hypothetical scenario.
 
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Gryz

Golden Member
Aug 28, 2010
1,551
204
106
I don't like mobile devices.
I never liked mobile devices.

I remember Sun MicroSystem's slogan. "The network is the computer".

In the early nineties, when I traveled, I traveled without any equipment. When I got at my destination, I could sit behind any computer, and log in over Internet, and access my email, my files, everything. When I started to work for a (networking company), I could fly across the ocean without a laptop. In the main office, there were workstations reserved for guests. When I logged in, my screen, my environment, my settings, my files, everything was there. At IETFs there were big terminal rooms where all the attendees could do the same.

Later laptops got introduced. I bet it were the managers and the salespeople who liked them most. (I can understand salespeople wanting to take a laptop to customers). Within a few years, everybody in the company got a laptop. Now when you have to travel, you always have to carry equipment (laptop) with you. At IETFs, there are no terminal rooms anymore, just WiFi. I hate that. It is a big step back, imho.

I still hope that some day, the idea of "the network is the computer" will come back.

The biggest hurdle, imho, is security. Sitting behind a device you don't own, and typing your passwords and getting access to your electronic documents is a liability. Viruses, trojans, eavesdropping, stealing documents, etc. But maybe there will be better solutions in the future. Public monitors everywhere, that can connect wirelessly to your private computing device, the size of a mobile phone. The mobile device could contain data. It could have encryption functionality and keys, to communicate with your data at home (or in the cloud). Add public wireless keyboards and mice, and you can have a complete desktop setup, while being away (from the office, or from home). I just don't wanna carry stuff with me, not even if it is only the size and weight of a tablet.
 
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Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,471
2,427
136
"Convergence" does not mean that you can or need only have one device.

Convergence means that all devices can run the same operating system and applications. With that being stated, the smallest most power efficient device, while being able to run the desktop apps in a meaningful way, will do so with a lower performance envelope than the larger, more powerful devices.

Now first I want to say we can never have enough compute.

But for the average user hardware has outpaced software in terms of performance. Stated another way, the hardware has become faster at the higher rate than the software has become increasingly complex. Again, I'm talking about applications that the average person uses on a daily basis. Word processing, small spreadsheets, perhaps some light video/photo editing, maybe some financial software...

That is the reason IMO for our impending convergence as defined above.

And again we can never have enough compute we can all pick a number of applications which can slow our systems to a crawl. Just read the latest motherboard review and the computational chemistry used for testing for one example.
 

taltamir

Lifer
Mar 21, 2004
13,576
6
76
I still hope that some day, the idea of "the network is the computer" will come back.
Me too.

The biggest hurdle, imho, is security. Sitting behind a device you don't own, and typing your passwords and getting access to your electronic documents is a liability. Viruses, trojans, eavesdropping, stealing documents, etc. But maybe there will be better solutions in the future. Public monitors everywhere, that can connect wirelessly to your private computing device, the size of a mobile phone. The mobile device could contain data. It could have encryption functionality and keys, to communicate with your data at home (or in the cloud). Add public wireless keyboards and mice, and you can have a complete desktop setup, while being away (from the office, or from home). I just don't wanna carry stuff with me, not even if it is only the size and weight of a tablet.
Using an unsecured wifi hotspot is extremely insecure as well.

And the concern of a virus infected terminal can be eliminated by using a drive-less terminal where you bring your own bootable USB drive with an OS installed on it.

Also, if the terminal owner wanted to spy on your in the first place he could very easily do so even if you brought a laptop because he controls the internet connection. Although an encrypted VPN tunnel can protect against that but wouldn't help with spyware on the host computer.

2-step verification does though. Either through a security USB dongle or google or WOW's use of a cellphone.
 

KingFatty

Diamond Member
Dec 29, 2010
3,034
1
81
I think the issue I was having with the golf club analogy is that I'm concerned about not being able to run all my content/software on all my devices.

With golf clubs, you can use any club on any ball, it's just that different situations call for different clubs. If all your clubs break except your putter, you could still finish a game with your putter and get a low score?

But with software, there is no way for me to run steam on my Android tablet. I want convergence to let me choose any device to run my software that I already bought.
 

LoneNinja

Senior member
Jan 5, 2009
825
0
0
I'm just going to say this.

Trying to run desktop apps and a full desktop version of windows on any small screen touch based device is going to be an utter nightmare. There is nothing I do on my desktop I can't already do on my phone that wouldn't require me to carry a keyboard/mouse around to properly utilize the application, it just won't fly with a touch interface.


And regardless of hardware, a Windows/ios combo would fail compared to Android. I just can't see a worth while user interface for desktop windows, and Android already beats ios in most ways.
 

dastral

Member
May 22, 2012
67
0
0
The fact you still NEED a docking station actually proves his analogy to be correct about it being like combining a car and a bicycle and then needing either.

Convergence is not about eliminating "the seat" or a "steering device" or 2 wheels, this is why i find the car bicycle analogy to be very lacking.

Convergence is about "eliminating devices" not functions
Instead of a Mobile Phone, a Gameboy, a VCR, a DVD, a CD Player, a Laptop, a Newspaper, a Tablet, you'll have an iPhone10 that will do every of these functions.

Physics would like to have a few words with you. also i3-2100 / 8800GT barely plays modern graphics engines, much less outputting future resolutions and graphics quality. You need to render photorealistic graphics in real time.
D3 is a very non demanding game (as blizzard wanted it to work on older hardware to increase customer base).
Yet again the point is lost...
If 15 years ago i would had told you "i'd love to have my Athlon64 and 9600Pro in my gameboy" you would have said "physics would like to have a word with you"...
Have you seen the stuff that can run on a Nexus7 ? Is it so unreasonable to expect in 2025-2030 photorealistic graphics in a 2W Chip ?
Today i can buy a Galaxy S3 that's faster than my desktop was in 2000...

No, his analogy is correct, its golf clubs not golf carts.
As time progresses and new devices are created people get more different kinds of electronics. People buy a laptop, desktop, smartphone, tablet, and TV. They don't remove devices as "no longer needed" but buy additional devices because even though what they wanted could have been done by any of the other devices they own, it couldn't have been done as well.
Convergence is this :
In 2030 you get back from work and want to play some Battlefield8.
You put your iPhone10 on its docking station, and click on "DesktopMode" icon.
It hooks up via wireless with your mouse/keyboard/shoundsystem and via WIDI with your 27" QuadHD monitor.

After an hour, you want a small break, head to the living room, click on "TvMode".
The TV turns on, and you use the iPhone10 as a "tactile remote" to select an episode of Thee and a Half men on your SmartTV's Hulu.

Tomorrow you need to go to NYC to see your mom, so you pack and put your Padphone and it's Keyboard/Battery into your backpack.

On the plane in a bit of nostalgia, you take out your Padphone and decide to watch LOTR from it's 20TB SDCard.
http://cdn1.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/7035169/asus-padfone235_large_verge_medium_landscape.jpg

When you're about to leave the airport, your boss calls, he wants a draft but detailed email as to why "The AdSpace Project is bad" and it wants it for Now.
You take out your Padphone's Keyboard/Battery go to Starbucks log on your company's webmail and start typing away...

When done, you take your rental car, put your iPhone10 in it's dock, start listening to some di.fm streaming and use its GPS function to find your mother's new home.

Convergence is not about making a bicycar... it's about centralizing your digital life into 1 device, and it has already started (albeit poorly) via Asus or decently via Apple (AppleSync).

Open all of these and tell me if it doesn't look like a convergence of "everything to your smartphone"
http://cultofandroid.cultofmaccom.n...013/01/Screen-Shot-2013-01-07-at-14.49.40.jpg
http://1.androidauthority.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Asus-Padfone.jpg
http://i.pcworld.fr/1260131-nvidia-project-shield-4.jpg
http://cdn.slashgear.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/intel_wireless_display-540x153.jpg
http://www.briphonebr.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/joystick-controle-para-iphone.jpg
http://www.case-parts.com/uploads/details/MCH-NEXUS7-02-1.jpg
http://www.intomobile.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/hulu-plus-iphone-demo.jpg
http://cdn.slashgear.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/orange_quick_tap_nfc_hands_on_sg_12-580x443.jpg
http://static.arstechnica.net/2011/10/06/capps_infinity_blade-4e8dfb9-intro.jpg
http://1.standaardcdn.be/Assets/Images_Upload/2012/10/30/kingstonoffice.jpg.525.jpg
http://media.bestofmicro.com/ios-android-office-apps,6-F-364407-22.jpg
 
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beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,231
1,605
136
I believe that as hardware gets better and better the end result will be Windows in all form factors.

I highly doubt the windows part. MS just showed once more how clueless the are. I'm actually often defending MS and run Windows myself (not a Linux geek) but Windows 8 is just a failure...especially Metro/Modern UI that should make it usable in tablets and Phones.
 

MightyMalus

Senior member
Jan 3, 2013
292
0
0
Love my 5year old currently running Win8Pro AMD Laptop.

If all my software could run on an ARM chip. I'd be using an ARM laptop right now.
That's the only reason I haven't yet got one, the OS.
 

KingFatty

Diamond Member
Dec 29, 2010
3,034
1
81
Ah, now what about google glass, or the "eyeglasses" form factor for when you want a big screen? I've never used one, but if I'm on a plane, I'd rather put on a pair of glasses and watch a movie on a virtual 80" screen, rather than use a tablet.

As for whether a docking station is a separate device to replace another device, I'm not sure that is a relevant argument. Instead of thinking of the docking station as a computer-replacement, I think of it as a way to recharge the device, and a place to put the device and/or connect to peripherals.

You have to have a spot to set down your laptop/tablet/phone, so that you can charge it up. Instead of setting it down and plugging in a cable, I much prefer setting it down on a docking station.

Currently I use a touchstone and I have to say wireless charging/docking is magnificently better than plugging in wires for charging/docking. In the future, I could see docking stations becoming little more than mats that provide wireless power and high-bandwidth connections for interfacing with peripherals.

So I really like the idea of having one device, and when i need to recharge it, I just put it on the docking mat and doing that enables my "desktop" mode for that charger when I need to work and game on my monitors with fancy keyboard and mouse. then, when I want to watch movies, I'll pick up my device and put it on the charging/docking mat in my living room, that lets me access all my media on the big screen from the sofa.

Whether my library of software and media is stored on a memory in the phone is irrelevant. I'd foresee instead that your software installation and videos/pictures are on a home server/NAS that is accessible wirelessly through your router or via the charging mats for higher bandwidth. Or you could have it on the equivalent of dropbox/google docs.
 

taltamir

Lifer
Mar 21, 2004
13,576
6
76
If 15 years ago i would had told you "i'd love to have my Athlon64 and 9600Pro in my gameboy" you would have said "physics would like to have a word with you"...
No I wouldn't, it was well known there that such miniaturization is possible.

The problem is how small a nm is, we are literally running out of atoms.
http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=299974

So what do you do when you reach a nm figure so small that there are simply not enough atoms to build your structures? And remember due to imperfection in the construction a 1 atom wide connection is not going to be viable.

At that point the age of rapid scaling of speed would have ended. Advancement is still possible but it will take a long time and significant breakthroughs to achieve. Already new processes are costing several times what older ones did (modern plant is 6 billion dollars) and yet the resultant is a shrinking that improves density but not thermals (move from 32 to 22nm to intel according to intel's own claims, as well as anything below 45nm for their competitors)

Intel's tri-gate advacement is an example of the type of new improvements that would be needed, but its not like you can continue coming up with creative solutions like that at a breakneck pace... they will be made of course just not as fast as they used to.

There is certainly a good bit left in traditional advancement via shrinking. But not enough, I think, to get something capable of doing all of these at once:
1. high FPS (120Hz is already here and 3d cuts Hz at half so you need 240FPS to get the equivalent of that... but fine, lets say you are sticking with 2.5d 60Hz monitors)
2. future resolutions (4K) resolution
3. photo-realistic graphics (we already have the graphics engines... but it takes a massive server farm to render them in real time).
4. At a cellphone's form factor.

The above would eventually be reached but it will take longer due to having to come up with non traditional solutions (eg, no more shrinking nm).
 
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Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,471
2,427
136
No I wouldn't, it was well known there that such miniaturization is possible.

The problem is how small a nm is, we are literally running out of atoms.
http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=299974

So what do you do when you reach a nm figure so small that there are simply not enough atoms to build your structures? And remember due to imperfection in the construction a 1 atom wide connection is not going to be viable.

At that point the age of rapid scaling of speed would have ended. Advancement is still possible but it will take a long time and significant breakthroughs to achieve. Already new processes are costing several times what older ones did (modern plant is 6 billion dollars) and yet the resultant is a shrinking that improves density but not thermals (move from 32 to 22nm to intel according to intel's own claims, as well as anything below 45nm for their competitors)

Intel's tri-gate advacement is an example of the type of new improvements that would be needed, but its not like you can continue coming up with creative solutions like that at a breakneck pace... they will be made of course just not as fast as they used to.

There is certainly a good bit left in traditional advancement via shrinking. But not enough, I think, to get something capable of doing all of these at once:
1. high FPS (120Hz is already here and 3d cuts Hz at half so you need 240FPS to get the equivalent of that... but fine, lets say you are sticking with 2.5d 60Hz monitors)
2. future resolutions (4K) resolution
3. photo-realistic graphics (we already have the graphics engines... but it takes a massive server farm to render them in real time).
4. At a cellphone's form factor.

The above would eventually be reached but it will take longer due to having to come up with non traditional solutions (eg, no more shrinking nm).


If the hardware side of things does indeed stall for a while until another technology becomes viable there is always the possibility of massive software speed increases through Assembly programming, by hand. Difficult, tedious, and expensive, but much faster.
 

taltamir

Lifer
Mar 21, 2004
13,576
6
76
If the hardware side of things does indeed stall for a while until another technology becomes viable there is always the possibility of massive software speed increases through Assembly programming, by hand. Difficult, tedious, and expensive, but much faster.

Now that would be interesting...

It is still possible that we will never notice a stall though as key players are well aware of the issue and have been investing in it for a while. AFAIK over 10 years now.

For example there is the idea of switching from silicone to graphite based chips:
http://www.gizmag.com/graphene-computer-chips/11399/

And intel has been funding some research into alternatives to x86 that might be inherently more efficient. (although much less then they do into extending x86 into new markets/applications)
 
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