Are you taking population density into consideration?
I think there are a lot of factors to consider (climate, variants, local masking behavior, immunity level) but I haven't seen anything to date proving that density is a meaningful factor.
It's been brought up as a defense by the NJ gov for example, I just don't know that it's true.
If you do go and overlap a bunch of different states, the 3rd wave trend is pretty constant for a lot of states when you measure per capita, and by outcome (eg deaths.) Looking at a number of countries across the world, I haven't seen a strong correlation to density and transmission either, but lots of factors to consider.
I was expecting different, but it really didn't turn out so for the winter season.
I'm looking forward to future thorough analysis.
For now, it seems more like just a matter of timing, but rona was coming either way.