CPU performance matters...

[Magic Carpet]

How can anybody say CPU performance doesn't matter? Even in a general purpose machine, a faster CPU makes things feel a lot snappier.

But, in a grand scheme of things, it is the same, only a bit faster :whiste:

Congrats on a new toy, though.

 

[pyjujiop]

It's still a valid point in an environment where the going meme is "good enough CPU performance", and people keep saying that real desktop and laptop computers are going to disappear because of cute little toys because "that's all most people need". You've got a major chip maker flatly telling people that what they are selling is merely "good enough" and that people should be happy with that.

Well, they're not lying about it being good enough, because for the vast majority of people, it is. Honestly, I have an FX-8350 in my desktop rig, and a six-year-old C2D T7200 in my laptop, a 2 GHz dual-core. And for 95 percent of the things I do, there's no difference between the two. If I surf the internet, watch videos, do work-related stuff, i.e. the type of things that Joe Everyman does with a PC, any of those things run just as well on the ancient T7200 as the FX-8350. I have to do something like play a recent game or re-master a large set of DVDs, like I did the other night, before the 8350 becomes a necessity.

I don't know that AMD is pushing "good enough" like you say, anyway. When it comes to the APU's, they do, but that's what an APU is--good enough CPU performance for everyday use, good enough GPU for playing games on a typical 1080p display. They don't make those claims with the FX line, which is why the FX-8350, the best CPU they make, costs less than Intel's mainstream 3570K part. That's a tacit admission on their part as to how it performs. When they tried a bogus pricing scheme with Bulldozer, they got kicked in the proverbial teeth for it.

 

[Idontcare]

And a point I've made earlier: it's been a while since the latest "must have" piece of software. At some point, a new "killer app" will emerge, and people will start paying attention to CPUs a lot more. Until then, though, it's worth noting that even now, "good enough" doesn't necessarily mean "good".

The killer app for PC's was the internet. Now its things on the internet, which makes smartphones the new killer hardware for running said killer app.

The next killer app for PCs will be the next big thing on the internet, which won't need a killer computer to operate (myspace, facebook, google search, email) but mobile access is the killer hardware vector.

The desktop is done when it comes to killer apps. May as well talk about the next killer app for big-iron servers, just as relevant in the context of what the "killer app" label is meant to capture and convey regarding sales and mindshare.

The cloud will be the next killer app, but it will only take off once they get the mobile hardware peice functioning. That's where tablets with 24hr battery life come in.

 

[Idontcare]

Honestly, I have an FX-8350 in my desktop rig, and a six-year-old C2D T7200 in my laptop, a 2 GHz dual-core. And for 95 percent of the things I do, there's no difference between the two.

There's a joke in there, somewhere, and it doesn't have anything to do with the FX-8350 being "good enough", it has more to do with the FX-8350 not being any faster than a 6yr-old laptop...:whiste:

(tongue in cheek, I have one too )

Obviously it comes down to what you are doing. If a 4GHz 8core CPU isn't notably faster than a 2GHz 2core CPU then you, specifically, were not what AMD thought the target audience was going to be for their product because you, specifically, are not doing anything that taxes even a 2-core CPU in a noticable way (so why get an 8core then?).

 

[Puppies04]

(so why get an 8core then?).

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Well, they're not lying about it being good enough, because for the vast majority of people, it is. Honestly, I have an FX-8350 in my desktop rig, and a six-year-old C2D T7200 in my laptop, a 2 GHz dual-core. And for 95 percent of the things I do, there's no difference between the two. If I surf the internet, watch videos, do work-related stuff, i.e. the type of things that Joe Everyman does with a PC, any of those things run just as well on the ancient T7200 as the FX-8350. I have to do something like play a recent game or re-master a large set of DVDs, like I did the other night, before the 8350 becomes a necessity.

I have a 2007-era laptop and an i7-920 desktop -- itself no longer close to bleeding edge -- and the difference is obvious to me in everything. So maybe it's a personal perception thing.

I don't know that AMD is pushing "good enough" like you say, anyway. When it comes to the APU's, they do, but that's what an APU is--good enough CPU performance for everyday use, good enough GPU for playing games on a typical 1080p display. They don't make those claims with the FX line, which is why the FX-8350, the best CPU they make, costs less than Intel's mainstream 3570K part. That's a tacit admission on their part as to how it performs. When they tried a bogus pricing scheme with Bulldozer, they got kicked in the proverbial teeth for it.

I was specifically thinking of their marketing for the APUs when I said that. I consider it rather disingenuous because I believe the only reason they market their CPUs as "good enough" is because they aren't able to make anything better that is cost-competitive. If they could make an APU with a screaming CPU, we wouldn't hear "good enough" from them.

And they've basically thrown in the towel on the desktop anyway, unfortunately.

The desktop is done when it comes to killer apps. May as well talk about the next killer app for big-iron servers, just as relevant in the context of what the "killer app" label is meant to capture and convey regarding sales and mindshare.

This is the conventional wisdom, and where I differ from the majority. I don't know what it will be, but something will develop over the next few years to make "real" computer performance important again. Desktops may continue to yield to notebooks, but I don't think the PC is going anywhere any time soon, and may one day have a resurgence that will surprise people.

(Some actually say that gaming has become the most recent killer app for PCs. I'm not sure about that, though it is true that gaming is driving a lot of the high end of the PC market now.)

 

[ehume]

(responding to IDC's Killer App comment) Actually, given my experience, I'd say that for hardware SSD's are the Next Big Thing. My wife's 2008 Dell, for example, has taken a new lease on life with a 500 GB SSD replacing her 500 GB 5400 rpm HD. Even at SATA II speeds, it's a completely satisfactory system now. And I did it to hers because my own rig responded so well to SSD's. It's like going from dial-up to highspeed Internet.

 

[Idontcare]

(Some actually say that gaming has become the most recent killer app for PCs. I'm not sure about that, though it is true that gaming is driving a lot of the high end of the PC market now.)

If someone makes that claim then I'd argue they don't understand what "killer app" means.

Gaming may be the last remaining prominent app driving growth in PC's (just going with the assumption), but that distinction alone doesn't make it a killer app per se.

SAS is a prominent app for businesses, pushing server sales, but it is not a killer server app

Killer app is one that singularly drives TAM growth versus simply sustaining (or reducing the rate of decline in) the traditional/historical TAM.

Widespread interest in the internet was a killer app to really drive PC sales, followed by the wave of mobility (laptops overtaking desktop sales, etc).

Next killer app is going to be something that eliminates the keyboard and mouse - some kind of mental reader (like a head cap) with surface contact electrodes or proximity sensing and such.

After that it will be about going super-human, - mental controlled robotics for super strength, super speed, super memory, super learning (reverse feedback from the mental reader, going from passive collector to active signal generator), etc.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

I'm thinking shorter term than that. I mean something that people will want to do that requires a lot of CPU power, not just "good enough" and being connected to the Internet.

I fully admit that this is a hunch and I have no way of backing it up. I just think it will happen at some point, and rather unexpectedly, because these things can't be predicted. I could well be wrong, in which things will continue to just evolve as they are now.

 

[Idontcare]

(responding to IDC's Killer App comment) Actually, given my experience, I'd say that for hardware SSD's are the Next Big Thing. My wife's 2008 Dell, for example, has taken a new lease on life with a 500 GB SSD replacing her 500 GB 5400 rpm HD. Even at SATA II speeds, it's a completely satisfactory system now. And I did it to hers because my own rig responded so well to SSD's. It's like going from dial-up to highspeed Internet.

Oh I agree there, 100%. I guess I was kinda baking that one in as "done", meaning it is surely the "next thing" but it has already pretty much arrived. That market is nearing mature growth phase now in my mind.

Ironically I just replaced the HDD with an SSD in my wife's work laptop just this past week. Those USB dongles for laptop upgrades are slick as hell.

But that kind of hardware isn't driving TAM growth for PC's, if anything it is cannibalizing PC revenue because a $300 500GB Samsung 840 SSD upgrade on a 4 yr old laptop breaths enough life into the laptop that the owner doesn't feel the need to drop $800 on a new 2013 laptop (you selfish bastard, don't you realize you are damaging the economy! :hmm

I'm thinking shorter term than that. I mean something that people will want to do that requires a lot of CPU power, not just "good enough" and being connected to the Internet.

I fully admit that this is a hunch and I have no way of backing it up. I just think it will happen at some point, and rather unexpectedly, because these things can't be predicted. I could well be wrong, in which things will continue to just evolve as they are now.

I expect the mental-caps to be commercialized within 5 yrs.

But you are thinking of a software-based application that will bring CPUs to their knees and drive a big demand for 4GHz CPUs...interesting. Any guesses what area this will be in? Entertainment or productivity?

 

[Charles Kozierok]

I also think we're going to see a shifting of some part of the market from the desktop to mobiles that stops there -- doesn't continue on to tablets. For example, I want to get a portable machine that I can edit photos on and do other work, because that would be very useful compared to a desktop machine, even if a bit slower. But I don't want a tablet because, as I like to say, "any computer without a real keyboard and a real mouse is a toy".

 

[frozentundra123456]

I have a 2007-era laptop and an i7-920 desktop -- itself no longer close to bleeding edge -- and the difference is obvious to me in everything. So maybe it's a personal perception thing.

Yea, I dont understand how in any way a 2ghz laptop could feel the same as an 8350 desktop. I just moved up from and E4500 system to an i5, primarily for gaming. I was not really expecting much difference in everyday use, but I am frankly amazed how much faster it seems. In addition my wife and son, neither of who is particularly computer savvy, have remarked how fast it feels.

I also agree with your feelings about tablets. I can see how someone would gladly give up a desktop for a laptop, but I cannot imagine not having a computer available for occasional heavier use than a tablet allows. I also would be very reluctant to try to use a tablet for online banking due to the lousy interface and lack of security on android.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

I expect the mental-caps to be commercialized within 5 yrs.

I assume you're pulling my leg, right?

But you are thinking of a software-based application that will bring CPUs to their knees and drive a big demand for 4GHz CPUs...interesting. Any guesses what area this will be in? Entertainment or productivity?

Not sure, but if I had to guess, I'd say entertainment is more likely. When it comes to productivity, I don't think the regular PC has ever been in much danger. Just from a bang-for-the-buck standpoint, it still makes a lot of sense for most businesses to use desktops.

As for consumers, who knows. But just when I thought everyone was happy with HD quality video, suddenly the world is abuzz in talk of "4k" video. That's a lot of pixels to push around. Who knows what else will be out there in 5 or 10 years.

It doesn't have to be demanding new software that taxes CPUs leading to a sea change either. It could be some new dramatic change in some other aspect of hardware that creates new demands that weren't there before. As an example, how many PCs have been sold over the last decade solely due to the rise of digital photography?

 

[ShintaiDK]

I would estimate that around 90% of what we do will be cloud based in 2020. However that doesnt exclude the need for CPU or GPU power. Smartphones and laptops will be dominant, and tablets will simply be caught in between and quickly dissapear like netbooks.

The world also demands more power/performance efficiency. Its unsubstainable what we still do today. However, ARM is not part of that solution. Its simply underperforming and underfunded as it is.

I only hope we can get proper cloud software. And not some of the nigthmare that Microsoft for example brings with o365. Enterprise class software trying to fill the role of cloud software.

I also think alot of people taking care of IT at offices might need to...reeducate for new times ahead.

We cant push CPU performance much higehr anyway without new instructions. Alot of catchup in software will be needed as well. And software that can change over night, not over years.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Maybe I'm just a new-age luddite but I cringe at the idea of doing things "cloud based".

I don't trust the "cloud".
I don't want my important stuff sitting on a server somewhere that I have no control over.
I don't want to trust my Internet connection to be able to get important things done. I don't want my performance limited by the speed of a bunch of routers "out there" somewhere.

I still don't see real, important work being done "in the cloud", even a decade from now. Most of the unimportant stuff has already migrated.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Maybe I'm just a new-age luddite but I cringe at the idea of doing things "cloud based".

I don't trust the "cloud".
I don't want my important stuff sitting on a server somewhere that I have no control over.
I don't want to trust my Internet connection to be able to get important things done. I don't want my performance limited by the speed of a bunch of routers "out there" somewhere.

I still don't see real, important work being done "in the cloud", even a decade from now. Most of the unimportant stuff has already migrated.

I am in the same boat. And even worse, I seen how it all works from the inside. It makes me crawl back into fetus position every night. Its one of those things that is better not to know anything about and live in the illusion that its highly professional handled. But its still a reality to come that we need to live with.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

So I guess we can add the cloud to sausages and legislation in the list of things one doesn't want to see made.

 

[CHADBOGA]

The Cloud is a joke.

What happens if I want to watch a 13gig Blu-Ray rip?

Many ISP's are getting less generous with download limits and I don't want to waste time and download allocation to watch my Blu-Ray rips.

And I sure as hell don't want to waste time or bandwidth limits(I also get charged for uploads) uploading my Blu-Ray rips to the Cloud in the first place.

The Cloud can go #$%! itself.

 

[Piroko]

After that it will be about going super-human, - mental controlled robotics for super strength, super speed, super memory, super learning (reverse feedback from the mental reader, going from passive collector to active signal generator), etc.

I can totally see them selling one of these with a hardware privacy switch. Commercials for this helmet would be hilarious, full of innuendos.

 

[Idontcare]

Maybe I'm just a new-age luddite but I cringe at the idea of doing things "cloud based".

I don't trust the "cloud".
I don't want my important stuff sitting on a server somewhere that I have no control over.
I don't want to trust my Internet connection to be able to get important things done. I don't want my performance limited by the speed of a bunch of routers "out there" somewhere.

I still don't see real, important work being done "in the cloud", even a decade from now. Most of the unimportant stuff has already migrated.

I don't like the idea of the cloud either, but I am a luddite when it comes to stuff like that and I accept it. Never been on myspace, never had a facebook account, never done twitter or chat, never played online games, etc.

So I know I'm bassackwards in that regard, but I am also observant and I see what everyone else and my brother are doing and they loves them some cloud without really even knowing it.

Do you know where these forums are hosted? The cloud. That's right. You are posting content too, and retrieving it from, the dreaded cloud. Right here, right now, in realtime. And, dare I say, loving it

The Cloud is a joke.

What happens if I want to watch a 13gig Blu-Ray rip?

Many ISP's are getting less generous with download limits and I don't want to waste time and download allocation to watch my Blu-Ray rips.

And I sure as hell don't want to waste time or bandwidth limits(I also get charged for uploads) uploading my Blu-Ray rips to the Cloud in the first place.

The Cloud can go #$%! itself.

The cloud has its limits, of course, and 20 yrs ago you would have said the same thing had someone suggested to you that someday you'd be watching videos on the internet that were larger than a postage stamp, let alone streaming entire movies over netflix.

Give the cloud 10yrs to mature and you'll be wondering what you did before it ever came along.

 

[ehume]

I would estimate that around 90% of what we do will be cloud based in 2020. However that doesnt exclude the need for CPU or GPU power. Smartphones and laptops will be dominant, and tablets will simply be caught in between and quickly dissapear like netbooks.

When tablets pack CPU's that make current i73770's look like 386's, then do we need laptops for their computing power? When tablets sport virtual keyboards and mental input, do we need a laptop for its input? Consider what the computing scene will look like in 2020, seven years from now.

Maybe the laptop will go away, leaving us with tablets. And desktops? For hobbyists like us.

 

[ShintaiDK]

When tablets pack CPU's that make current i73770's look like 386's, then do we need laptops for their computing power? When tablets sport virtual keyboards and mental input, do we need a laptop for its input? Consider what the computing scene will look like in 2020, seven years from now.

Maybe the laptop will go away, leaving us with tablets. And desktops? For hobbyists like us.

You list alot of revolutionizing requirements for the tablet to overtake the laptop. Yet the laptop only need 1 thing to replace the tablet, power efficiency. And right now the laptop is spearheading into that area.

 

[CHADBOGA]

The cloud has its limits, of course, and 20 yrs ago you would have said the same thing had someone suggested to you that someday you'd be watching videos on the internet that were larger than a postage stamp, let alone streaming entire movies over netflix.

Give the cloud 10yrs to mature and you'll be wondering what you did before it ever came along.

I really, really doubt that.

I don't know if Netflix is in Australia or not, but the concept doesn't particularly appeal to me anyway.

 

[CHADBOGA]

When tablets pack CPU's that make current i73770's look like 386's, then do we need laptops for their computing power? When tablets sport virtual keyboards and mental input, do we need a laptop for its input? Consider what the computing scene will look like in 2020, seven years from now.

Maybe the laptop will go away, leaving us with tablets. And desktops? For hobbyists like us.

I suspect that detachable screen laptops will win out in the end.

I still think tablets are a near useless device and the only reason I would want one, is to use as a bookreader in portrait mode, other than that, an Ultrabook/Mac Air appeals to me far more than a tablet does.

 

[Abwx]

No more desktop since 2001 or so when i got rid of a Duron based one ,
only laptops , the last one with a 2C T6600 , enough for whatever i do
including spice simulation of analog circuits.

As for the cloud , it s just a try to highjack people from their own content
and create a system where you are forced to pay unrelentlessly for something
that was once almost free and deprive us of any property , in short , like Intel
SB and IB , you are no more owner of the product you payed for since it can
be remotely disabled by the manufacturer....