Crucial DDR just got even cheaper!!

[LXi]

BaldingLoser,

I understand your concept, only a fool would be shocked by computer prices coming down, it's what's suppose to happen and should be nothing surprising. But you're missing something here, the point is not about RAM prices coming down, it's about the rate of price decline. Just two months ago 256MB of PC133 RAM would've cost over $100, with DDR PC2100 RAMs going for as high as $190 a little after its debut. But look at the prices just a mere two months afterwards, $55 for 256MB PC2100, the most advanced SDRAM technology, with Crucial quality which always cost a premium. So yes, we are shocked, not because RAM prices fell, because how rapid they fell. You can score yourself a point if you can find a counterexample showing a bigger percentage price decline in the history of memory industry.

 

[BaldingLoser]

An excellent point LXi (I'll award you two points!). The rate of decline over the past 2 months is unusual for memory. Dropping by roughly 50% in two months is relatively rare given my recollection of memory prices. RDRAM has taken quite a spill as well. Other product prices often show this kind of volatility though. For example, equities, fruits & vegetables, natural gas, and I seem to recall Intel recently slashing the price of high-end P4's roughly in half.
What got my gander up was the comment that someone back in January thought that memory prices would be going up and would presumably be higher here in June. Rare to find 6 month periods where the price of a particular stick of memory rises, especially for the newest kind of memory. They continually push to faster and faster standards and lower latencies, so any particular stick of RAM is destined to fall in price given a reasonably long horizon.
An interesting question would be as to the cause for this price decline. Fall in demand? Increase in Supply? Or perhaps a pricing strategy to try and push DDR into the market and make it the standard platform? What would be a fair bet concerning the price of a 256mb DDR stick in 3 months? I remember people betting me a couple of months ago that DDR was artificially low and that in a few months (which is now) it would be much higher.

 

[ndee]

BaldingLoser:
I'm with LXi. The DDR-RAM Prices in Switzerland dropped from Week 14, 552 CHF to Week 23, 151 CHF and that's a little more than 70%, and if the GF3 would fall so rapidly, sheesh, I would be the happiest person on earth

 

[Phiberoptix]

Balding Loser, you sound like a loser alright...but a know-it-all kinda loser.
so some guy spent $90 on a 256 sdram stick and he just stated that at the time he thought that the price would go up (as happened to edo ram). And to much of his surprise, crucial prices are going down almost every week and 256 2100 DDR is costing a measily 56 bucks now. Who could predict that in January ? Could you ?

 

[Moohooya]

Memory prices right now are much lower than they "should" be. The prices keep dropping as demmand is so low due to the slow economy we are having right now. (Hint, you might want to buy before everyone gets their $300-$600 check as this MIGHT boost the economy.) When the demand picks up, I wouldn't be surprised to see prices come close to double in just a few weeks. A more realistic price should be at least 50% higher than todays price. Also, when it goes up, expect it to stay up fo quite some time. It could well be a year, maybe even 18 months before the prices drop back down to the level they'll fall to prior to the market recovery.

Just my 2 cents.

PS. I believe this current drop in memrory prices is the largest in history. Someone let me know if I am wrong.

 

[Raspewtin]

does it make sense to buy DDR memory now for a system to build in Septmember, which will have some spike in demand. I am thinking i should buy a few sticks and sit on them, but i'm not sure that's wise with anything relating to computers. any advice?

 

[Raspewtin]

oops - double post

 

[dullard]

<< The prices keep dropping as demmand is so low due to the slow economy we are having right now. (Hint, you might want to buy before everyone gets their $300-$600 check as this MIGHT boost the economy.) >>



Sorry if this sounds too political. Americans who paid taxes last year will get UP TO 5% of their taxes TEMPORARILY back with a max of $300-$600. For example, if you paid $1000 in taxes last year, you will get a rebate check for $50. However, this is not a true rebate. Since, this $50 will be paid back on your taxes due April 15, 2002. That is, you will have to either A) pay an extra $50 on your 2001 taxes or B) your 2001 rebate will be reduced by $50. Thus it is a TEMPORARY loan from the government (interest free, so this loan is great!)

To sum it up, I doubt a small temporary loan will change the economy drastically.

 

[Moohooya]

dullard,

Beats me. They (Georgy and friends) claim that this check will boost the economy and we'll all be happy again. Then I've heard others claim this check amounts to anywhere from 1 meal from Mickey D's a week for a year to nothing due to increased fuel costs. However, it is safe to say that at some point the economy will turn. If this is too far into the future, chip manufacturers might cut their losses and cut production and prices will go up. Or they might sell out to those willing to keep production running at full, reducing competition meaning really big hikes when demand returns. (They can't run at a loss forever.) Either way I think Raspewtin has a good point. Buy now (I don't think this would mean this month) for a system to be built later.

What we need is a way for people to be notified as soon as the prices turn, and for us all to go and buy memory then. I don't know if we can subscribe to this thread and then be able to receive notifications in 3 months when someone posts a &quot;Buy now&quot; alert. I'm sure with all the people wanting to purchase memory for a future system, someone will read somewhere that demand is increasing, or notice the first retailer to increase their memory prices, in time for everyone else to place their order before the prices soar. Any suggestions?

 

[Shudder]

I may lose my job, my house, my car and my wife if I had one, but dammit at least I have that extra 128MB of ram when prices were still good.

 

[eLiu]

hmmm...it'd b much appreciated if someone did post when the prices start to inch up again...a 50% increase would be devastating to my miniscule budget

-eric

 

[TonyB]

How can memory prices recover from this rapid drop in price? Correct me if im wrong but DDR ram and SDRAM are not like CD-R media or gasoline. Once you buy a stick of 256MB of ram for $56 bucks it stays with you forever until you sell it or it breaks. So with the prices at this record low and with it dropping as i type, the memory market is saturated beyond belief. If demand goes up it would not be for the 256MB ram, the demand would be for the 512MB and 1GB ram sticks because everyone and their pet dog already has enough ram to last them until Windows XP and windows 2002 or some other ram guzzler. I read somewhere that the prices for ram has gone so low that they're thinking about giving away free 128MB sticks of ram in every pcmagazine issue.

I dont know if i make sense or not but its kinda like buying a new car. once you buy a car it can only depreciate in value, prices for cars will only go down; in certain instances it can go up. so computer memory like cars are bad investments economically. i guess what im wondering is how can the prices just suddenly rise just because we have more money to spend, shouldnt it drop even more because then we'd be demanding bigger better faster ram with our extra cash instead of the same old stuff. If prices for current memory modules DO RISE, it would only be because of newer technology chips making the old chips out of print and more scarce- certainly not because of demand.

Edit: Again, correct me if im wrong, but now that i thought about it, shouldnt DEMAND actually lower prices? because then companies would find better ways to lower cost to increase supply and meet demand?

 

[MikeyP]

Talking about long term price hikes (6 months was mention earlier). In the summer of 1999, 128MB of PC100 CS2 was about $100. In March of 2000 (when I built my current system), my 128MB of PC133 was $210.

 

[grant2]

<< Who could predict that in January ? Could you ? >>



On a local buy &amp; sell board last january someone happened to ask &quot;should i buy ram now or wait?&quot; and I DID predict &quot;ram prices will fall as they always have, the longer you wait the cheaper it will get&quot;

So either I got lucky or i stated the obvious =)

 

[Moohooya]

With memory the supply is pretty constant. It takes several months for production to ramp up or down. Due to the costs of the equipment, it doesn't make sense to not produce memory at full production. The bank wants is money, your employees want to be paid, so you might as well sell a million modules at $2.80 each than half a million at $3.40, or whatever your &quot;I'm going to make money&quot; point is if you could sell them all.

When demand goes up above supply, the manufacturers know that no one else can fill that demand for at least 9 weeks, so they can charge MUCH more. If they believe the demand will last long enough, they'll ramp up production on a different line, but they know that will take a few months until the dimms hit the stores. When demmand goes down, they sell at a loss to the lucky ones who already have 128MB but decide to up it to 1G for peanuts.

 

[BaldingLoser]

<< Talking about long term price hikes (6 months was mention earlier). In the summer of 1999, 128MB of PC100 CS2 was about $100. In March of 2000 (when I built my current system), my 128MB of PC133 was $210. >>



Note that a stick of PC133 is not the same product as a stick of PC100.

By the way, how far away do you think it will be before AMD and Intel formally adopt the 150mhz fsb and thus PC150 becomes the standard? Hasn't someone announced PC2700 as well for later this year? Although I've heard people have taken their crucial sticks up fairly high even at clock 2....

 

[LukFilm]

PC100 and PC133 is essentially the same. Look at the prices today.

I think the worst it's been was late September 1999. 128MB RAM cost over $300! :Q That was crazy, I still remember hearing that at a LAN party

 

[WildeBeast]

I don't know whether to go with corsair's XMS2400 DDR ram or crucial's PC2100 ram when it is available at CL2. I assume the 2400 is already at CL2. What do you think? I want to hit at around 155 FSB, preferably at CL2 or 2.5, CL3 if there isn't much of a performance decrease, I don't know enough about ram to know the performance differance between CL2 and CL3. BTW, what does 2-2-2 mean?

 

[Insane3D]

There is not much difference between CL 2.5 and CL2 with DDR like there is with SDRAM and CL2 and CL3. I emailed Crucial and they said they will not be offering CL2 PC2100 for at least two months, so I wouldn't wait for them. The Corsair uses Micron's new CL2 modules, so it should o/c a little higher, but you should be able to hit 155 or so @ CL2 with Crucial's DDR. There is no CL3 DDR by the way...

 

[WildeBeast]

Oh, I thought that you could set it at CL3 to OC more...?

 

[Insane3D]

No, you would set it to CL 2.5 to o/c more... I really only would spend the extra cash on the Corsair if you are looking for 160+ on the FSB. You really need to ask yourself if you want to spend ~$100 on 256mb of Corsair for a little extra bandwith, or get twice the amount of Crucial for a little more...

 

[LXi]

I dont think there is CL3 for DDR, correct me if Im wrong.

 

[Motero]

Maybe it's time to think about upgrading again...

 

[WildeBeast]

Well the difference in price is not that profound. We are talking 56 vs 90. Also, I want to be able to use this ram for a while, evenif AMD adopts a 150 mhz fsb.

 

[Insane3D]

Well, if I am not mistaken, they already adopted the 166mhz spec...PC2700, but it is not available yet..


[edit]ooops..I meant 166..[/edit]