You seem to have observed the trends for a while, and so it sounds like you see a definite pattern where LTC would react to BTC crashing. I agree. But do you recall how fast that happens? If BTC begins to crash, will LTC follow it instantly based on auto-trading, so there isn't really a 'gap' in time when BTC starts to crash but LTC still hasn't moved yet?
Also, does BTC just stand on its own like a massive elephant, and decides to go up or down on its own, and then the LTC will follow along like a bird on the elephant's back?
Or can BTC be influenced by LTC? Can the little bird riding on the elephant peck hard enough on the BTC elephant to make him start to move?
I just wonder if there is any chance that this is kind of the behavior trend you might see: when BTC price drops, then the LTC price will crash hard and go low. So, LTC hits the bottom, and BTC continues downward in the same direction, but more slowly. Then, LTC starts to increase all by itself, even though BTC is still heading down?
That would seem like a great time to trade LTC for BTC.
So could LTC have movement totally independent of BTC? And then, if LTC goes up a little, maybe that can help BTC to stop dropping?
I'm just wondering if there has been this kind of behavior in the past, or if the BTC price and LTC price are so locked together that they move almost as a single coin that goes up or down in price together.
My point is that could there be an advantage to selling when BTC/LTC prices are crashing or surging, compared to when prices are somewhat stabilized.
That's a lot of Qs, I'll start from the top down. These aren't rules, just general observations of market behaviour.
1. When BTC crash all altcoins will instantly tank in $ value since its linked to their ratio of a BTC. Then after that, there is a small window gap where the altcoin holders take some time to process the info and if the BTC crash is severe, there will be panic for a mass sale. Altcoins get exchanged into BTC for cashing out into real $. So Altcoins will tank much faster than BTC.
2. When BTC recovers, obviously all altcoins follow it up based on their ratio to BTC, again, there is a lag phase, and a lot of people become optimistic and see an opportunity to make $, so they buy heaps of very cheap altcoins (from the crash).
Taking #1 and #2 together, the take home message is that altcoins seems to amplify what happens to BTC. It therefore provides good opportunities to smart and fast traders to take advantage of the situation.. that is why lots of people trade in alts, for no other reason (before someone tells me there is intrinsic value in some new psuedo coin due to x,y,z algorithm, the market doesn't GAF because its beyond all non-geek's understanding..), except fast chance of making $.
3. LTC can move independent of BTC value, its ratio to BTC can go up and down but it seems to be around the 0.03 mark for a long time now. It fell down to 0.02 during the recent BTC crash, and was as high as 0.0356 when BTC was ~$1,400. Where you think its headed is purely your own gut feelings.
Lastly, there is an advantage to selling/buying when you feel the ratio of LTC to BTC is too low or high, regardless of whether there's a crash or not.
Myself, I made a lot of potential profit in the last crash, I bought a lot of LTC when it was down to 0.022 of a BTC (using the BTC I've mined/traded with altcoins, no injection of real fiat $). But its not profit I've cashed out yet, because I still feel 0.029 or 0.03 is a bit low of where it should be.
I hope it helps you.. all these things are difficult to explain its all about instincts.