David Ortiz. Hall of Fame?

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happybelly

Senior member
Dec 4, 2004
493
0
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Except if you go back through history and analyze using some of those stats such as WAR you will see that they kinda suck. They may have some value when you look at a specific circumstance, but they aren't nearly the be all golden throne position some think.


I'd like to hear how they suck. WAR isn't perfect, but it's far better than looking at any traditional counting stats in evaluating players value.
 

bradley

Diamond Member
Jan 9, 2000
3,671
2
81
I blame Pedro for throwing a man with a metal plate in his head to the ground. RIP Zim, keeping that bench warm in the sky. I'll sleep safe tonight knowing that Leo Mazzone is alive and well.
 

Ayrahvon

Senior member
Aug 7, 2007
683
4
81
Your link has proven that Edgar did provide more value, yet they were two different types of hitters. From a pure value standpoint, if Papi gets in, then so should Edgar.

However, the two hitters brought different things to the table. Of significance is Papi easily trumping Edgar in ISO, or isolated power: .260 to .204. Edgar was a better pure hitter if we look at batting average: .312 vs .286, albeit having better luck (BABIP .335 vs .312 for Papi, lower is better).

A couple of other things that I think makes up for the WAR difference between Papi and Edgar.

1) To reiterate the above, Papi handily beats Edgar in ISO, or power numbers.

2) Papi was more clutch in the playoffs. Yes, Edgar was a bit more clutch in "Late and Close" situations of the regular season, but that doesn't compare to the postseason when pressure is at its highest: .962 OPS vs .873, .295 average vs .266. For those concerned about small sample sizes, Papi did this in over double the Plate Attempts of Edgar: 357 vs 148, which makes it even more impressive. To put it simply, Papi's postseason numbers go up vs his career average whereas Edgar's went down vs his career average. Is Edgar's 148 PA's a small sample size? I don't think so, especially when making the argument for the greatest DH of all time. Edgar simply didn't produce when it mattered most, i.e. the playoffs.

3) As a result of #1 and #2 above, Papi was/is more feared in his era. Proof: He led the league in intentional walks (IBB) last year (2013) with 27, and is leading the league in them this year (2014) so far. This is a man who is in his 18th season and plays in the same league as superstars named Cabrera, Pujols, and Bautista. Who has ever lead the league in IBB in their 17th and 18th seasons? Nobody except Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. Papi has finished in the top 8 or less since 2005 and is 4th overall among active players only behind future First Ballot HOFers (Pujols, Cabrera, and Suzuki). Power commands fear because it can change the game with one swing. Edgar never commanded that type of fear in his era. In fact, Edgar never led his league in IBB, ever.

4) Papi had to play in an era against more advanced metrics, which led to more ABs against the shift. Let's cut the BS, Papi is still putting up sick numbers while having to deal with the shift on most ABs. Want proof that the shift is being employed even more last year?
http://www.billjamesonline.com/whos_shifting_and_whos_not/

If Papi continues to put up big numbers this late in his career, especially against better metrics/tactics like the shift, then you have to put him on par with Edgar in my opinion. Regardless, they were both the best DH's of their eras and if one got in, the other should also get in.

To those who still think DH shouldn't be included. Wouldn't that disqualify any pitchers who benefited from never having to swing a bat thanks to that DH on their team?

WAR is currently the best metric to summarize a career in one single base stat. The major issue with WAR (and the reason you should always compare Fangraphs WAR and BPs WAR) is that defensive metrics are hardly standardized and are more subjective than batting stats.

To SP33: Yes, Ortiz has had better slugging numbers, but not better wOBA. Weighted on base percentage looks at both your ability to get on base and how much power you are hitting for. Someone with better .woba but less slugging is STILL a more valuable player even if they are not hitting for as much power, simply because they are getting on base more often and creating more run opportunities. Not only was he better, he was better for a longer period of his career.

As for playoff clutch, I would contend that Edgar did not get a lot of opportunities but did have a memorable one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g794oDdc1l0 (His at bat is at 3:43)


All this, and I still think Ortiz is one of the best hitters in the game right now. He is one of my favorites players to watch, and he is absolutely amazing at crushing the ball. He just wasn't as good as Edgar, who should get in the Hall as a DH.

Edit: BABIP is not just luck by the way. Edgar had a higher babip because he hit more line drives as a net percentage of his at bats than Ortiz has. Line Drives are more likely to fall fair and away from a defender than fly balls, so players with high line drive rates typically have higher BABIP. BABIP stabilizes quickly for players, and you can look at it more as an indication of whether a player is playing above or below their own historical ability rather than others. Someone who has a .300 babip over 4 years and currently has a .240 babip is likely to improve because he has been unlucky, in other words (assuming there is no injury or other changes).
 
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Anubis

No Lifer
Aug 31, 2001
78,716
417
126
tbqhwy.com
Huh? good luck selling tickets in that POS idea of a ballpark and with a foul-line@258ft add17 more HR's to Ortiz's stats not to mention having 2-3 inside the park HR's every game. Fenway is a national treasure and should NEVER be taken down OR Wrigley field, as we pass through our life's enjoying baseball Fenway and Wrigley ARE baseball, imperfect yet timeless, after we are all long gone and pushing up daisies, 200 years from now people should come to a place of where 10 generations ago the game was played, it's called "historic", why don't they just tear down Big Ben and replace it with a modern giant LED clock,... NO!, NO!, NO!,NO!,NO!,... not now, not next year, not next EVER!...When the Sox owners started looking for places for a spot to replace Fenway they were quickly informed by current patrons if you build it, we won't go and they were not joking. With the reactions from the fan base and looking at insane amounts of $$ to acquire enough space in downtown Boston for a new park they came to their senses and just upgraded Fenway a little with the seats above the "monster"..

As a lifelong sox fan im all for them building a new stadium provided they just make it Fenway 2.0 built to the exact same field dimensions just modern and whatnot,

the one idea out there of buying all the land to the right of Fenway and simply rotating the entire thing around home plate by 90 degrees was pretty interesting. the current 1st base line becomes the 3rd base line and everything just shifts

the space between what would then be 3rd and where the monster is would be turned into a museum
 
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Ayrahvon

Senior member
Aug 7, 2007
683
4
81
I'm also going to point out that Edgar was a non-discriminate hitter. He hit to all fields. Even in today's game they would not play a shift (shifts aren't all that new, just the rate that they do them) on him because of how good he was at hitting to the opposite field. Ortiz is a lefty, Edgar is a righty. Ortiz has had favorable platoon splits (He faced a lot more right handed pitching than Edgar faced left handed) his entire career and Edgar still hit better than him.

Edit, just got to keep the stat train going:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1163 Edgar

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1499 Ortiz

He wins handily in the BP comparison as well. TAv (Similar to FG wOBA) of .320 to Ortiz's .304. 63.8 WARP to 44.2 for Ortiz. Also, before you try and use the "Edgar played more seasons" excuse.

Edgar's career games played: 2055
Ortiz's career games played: 2025

Ortiz has thirty games to make up 20 WARP!

I'll also mention Edgar didn't get significant play time until he was 26 years old, compared to Ortiz starting at 22.

Sorry, there just isn't any comparison here, and that still doesn't detract to how good Ortiz has been, only to how much better Edgar was.
 
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cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
To those who still think DH shouldn't be included.

Except nobody in this thread is making the argument DH's should be excluded from the Hall.

I absolutely make the case the DH should be excluded from the game of baseball But they are a part of the game due to the mistake that lesser league made four decades ago, and are eligible for the Hall. They just don't get any bonus credit for being a skilled bench warmer between plate appearances for the rest of the team who does field a position. They have to work double-duty at the plate.

Ayrahvon said:
Wouldn't that disqualify any pitchers who benefited from never having to swing a bat thanks to that DH on their team?

Name me one position player who can put up similar numbers in the pitcher's role to those pitchers being seriously considered in the HOF voting. Just one.

On the other hand, I can easily name a dozen recent position players who have put up superior numbers to Ortiz in the skill that Ortiz has chosen to specialize himself in.
 
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classy

Lifer
Oct 12, 1999
15,219
1
81
Very little doubt he will hit over 500 homeruns before he is done. 3 titles, finished high in MVP voting multiple times, all-star several times. The fact he just DHs doesn't mean anything. He has been one of the most dominate hitters during his era. To argue the DH thing is stupid to be honest. That is his job. What do you do with guys who are only closers, aka Mariano Rivera?
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,929
142
106
Fred McGriff with 493 homeruns got a mere 11% of the vote. Craig Biggio with 3,060 hits got 74% of the vote. Amassing career long statistics is not a guarantee into the Hall of Fame anymore.

Mike Piazza I believe without a doubt should be in the Hall, although the voters haven't agree with me on that one yet. Next year is a big year with Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, & Gary Sheffield entering on the ballot. Johnson & Martinez are no-doubt HOFers. How many votes Sheffield gets will be one indication of the power of 500+ homeruns over McGriff's 493, and a predictor for Ortiz's legacy.

Why even bother bringing up Biggio? I never said 3000 hits guarantees first ballot HOFer (although it usually does). He missed by 2 votes and will get in next year. If anything you proved my point that the 500 / 3000 plateaus are still true by bringing him up.

Crimedog McGriff is a much tougher sell. He never reached the magical 500 mark which isn't good, seriously he couldn't sign as a PH and get 7 more? lol. He only passes 1 out of 4 BRef's HOF tests and the one he passed was at the bare minimum. He only led the league in HRs twice and intentional walks once. He was only top 10 WAR once. I just don't see it happening.

Sheff will not get in is my prediction. Not after admitting to PED use, something Ortiz never did. Otherwise I would say Sheff would eventually get in. Piazza will probably eventually get in despite playing in the height of the roid era. He was never really tied to PEDs.
 
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Ayrahvon

Senior member
Aug 7, 2007
683
4
81
Except nobody in this thread is making the argument DH's should be excluded from the Hall.

I absolutely make the case the DH should be excluded from the game of baseball But they are a part of the game due to the mistake that lesser league made four decades ago, and are eligible for the Hall. They just don't get any bonus credit for being a skilled bench warmer between plate appearances for the rest of the team who does field a position. They have to work double-duty at the plate.



Name me one position player who can put up similar numbers in the pitcher's role to those pitchers being seriously considered in the HOF voting. Just one.

On the other hand, I can easily name a dozen recent position players who have put up superior numbers to Ortiz in the skill that Ortiz has chosen to specialize himself in.

Hall of Fame level juicer for sure. Designated Hitters should be excluded on general principle. If you can't haul your fat ass out of the dugout and field a position you're not a great player.

DH should be expanded if anything. The only reason to watch a pitcher hit is to see Bartolo Colon look like an idiot.



Edgar had a career 147 wrc+ that means he was 47% better than the average hitter during his career, Ortiz 38%. There are very few people who manage to sport that type of production over a career, in the field or not. I just don't get why anyone would be against allowing players who otherwise would be injured constantly to play in DH instead of watching joke at bats from pitchers.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
DH should be expanded if anything. The only reason to watch a pitcher hit is to see Bartolo Colon look like an idiot.

Would be good to learn how to spot the difference between someone making an argument because they are passionately serious about the argument, and those making an argument to have fun with the subject.

Edgar had a career 147 wrc+ that means he was 47% better than the average hitter during his career, Ortiz 38%. There are very few people who manage to sport that type of production over a career, in the field or not. I just don't get why anyone would be against allowing players who otherwise would be injured constantly to play in DH instead of watching joke at bats from pitchers.

Let's roid up all the players into thumping home-run derby kings, because that totally makes the game awesome! Scoring! Scoring! Scoring! We should have a whole team of DH's, because why create an offensive deficiency in the middle-infield when we can have reserve thumpers bat for them? Football has separate offensive and defensive players, why shouldn't baseball? I know for sure it would totally improve every aspect of the game.


Here is my reasoning for why I like the game how I like it - I value the game more than I value the combined tally on the scoreboard. And the game is you both play the field along with swinging a bat.

The DH was put in place during a time when pitchers dominated the game, the era of Bob Gibson, Don Drysdale, etc., the sport was in need of changing the rules to score more runs. Lowering the mound was one rule change that helped score more runs. The DH was another. Can't really say that the game is in desperate need of runs today. Most would argue the game has too much scoring.
 
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cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
Ha!

My Cubs starting pitcher just walloped a 2-run homerun to the top of the bleachers! That's why we don't need no worthless DH!

 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
And then in the top of the very next inning the Mets' starting pitcher cranks a hard shot into the gap for a ground-rule double.

You can keep your slow half-player DH position and keep it. Absolutely no need for them here in the real leagues.
 

Ayrahvon

Senior member
Aug 7, 2007
683
4
81
The DH was put in place during a time when pitchers dominated the game, the era of Bob Gibson, Don Drysdale, etc., the sport was in need of changing the rules to score more runs. Lowering the mound was one rule change that helped score more runs. The DH was another. Can't really say that the game is in desperate need of runs today. Most would argue the game has too much scoring.

I'd contend the last few years have been another period of seriously dominate pitching! You have mentioned that there are pitchers who can hit (say Greinke for example isn't half bad) but even still, I just don't think pitchers should have to hit. I agree that offense isn't the end all be all of the sport. Many of my favorite games are pitching battles. I like that there is a difference between the NL and AL. While I think that, I also don't think that great DH players should be punished for playing DH, but the bar should certainly be set high for them to make the hall (Edgar Martinez anyone!?).
 

Poulsonator

Golden Member
Aug 19, 2002
1,597
0
76
I cannot stand that MLB has separate leagues with different rules, but fortunately for the Sox, it hasn't adversely affected them in their last three Series appearances (David Ortiz is a fine fielder, just having to sit one our good bats is dumb).

I want my pitchers to worry about one thing...pitching. I don't want them to hit or to be on the bases. The only scoring I care about is my team scoring more than their opponent. A win is a win, and as a baseball fan, I love 1-0 games as much as a 9-8 games. Offense is nowhere like it used to be just a few short years ago, and that's fine with me. But pitchers still shouldn't be hitting.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
I'd contend the last few years have been another period of seriously dominate pitching! You have mentioned that there are pitchers who can hit (say Greinke for example isn't half bad) but even still, I just don't think pitchers should have to hit. I agree that offense isn't the end all be all of the sport. Many of my favorite games are pitching battles. I like that there is a difference between the NL and AL. While I think that, I also don't think that great DH players should be punished for playing DH, but the bar should certainly be set high for them to make the hall (Edgar Martinez anyone!?).

Have you asked any of the pitchers what they prefer to do?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLECMCargd8
 
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