I think right now there is way too many ways to play DayZ, and not enough people willing to play the different mods for vanilla DayZ. I see some servers with people in them, but nothing at all compared to last august.
I'd be amazed if upon release Bohemia makes anywhere near the amount of sales they did when DayZ helped Arma 2 sell. I think overall the Zombie simulation in the A3 engine will be a rehash/fad and people will get disinterested very quickly. I also don't think that the release version of endgame for DayZ will be something worth playing. I've yet to hear any news regarding what to do AFTER you get equipped.
If it keeps your items/buildings in-game as you are offline, I don't see many casuals building huge bases because it would be impossible to defend them. Casuals were a LARGE part of DayZ vanilla.