DDR memory prices face possible collapse **UPDATE** "Things WILL get worse"

[apoppin]

Prices down 20% in February

Yes it's the Inq. So what? GOOD news for US (not the mfgs)

THE MEMORY MARKET is suffering continuing turbulence over prices. Many companies had hoped that the market would stabilise after Chinese New Year but that certainly doesn't seem to be the case. Spot prices for 256Mbit DDR chips dropped 4.1% on Wednesday according to Economic Daily News.
The average price for 256Mbit chips is now as low as US$2.87 and the market is riddled with fear that the prices could plunge to below US$2. Even SDRAM, which had been enjoying something of a gentle rise recently, is slipping downwards. Manufacturers have been switching to DDR which had led to SDRAM making small gains as supply decreased.

In what could be a dreadful piece of news for the industry but great news for consumers, DigiTimes and Commercial Times reported that DRAMeXchange is forecasting another 10-15% drop in prices in the first few weeks of March.

Related News
Infineon is once again pulling out from its Promos joint venture with Mosel Vitelic. The two companies have had a ridiculously on-off-on relationship for some time

Consolidation won't help the Dramurai any more

 

[bgeh]

i have nothing to say but

 

[Ice9]

Will you guys say that when Micron goes belly-up and has to lay everyone off?

They're going to be the first to go.

 

[Adul]

i think hynix will be the first to go, hard to say what will happen to micron

 

[acid16]

Not all DDr prices drop. Corsair still seems to think they can sell their XMS for $190 for 512MB ........ uh, news check corsair......... Samsung Original DDR333 PC2700 is going for $70.

 

[Ice9]

I think Hynix will be 2nd. They have the Korean government bailing them out, and will keep doing so for the forseeable future.

Micron can't survive on the $500M/quarter they're borrowing to stay in business. Even if the govt. intervenes now, they can't be saved.

They're just too far gone.

 

[apoppin]

We didn't lose manufacturers in the LAST RAM price collapse.

I think they will weather the "storm" (at least the savvy players) much as the other manufacturers unless the entire economy goes South.

 

[Ice9]

Things are MUCH different now.

We now have TEN dram manufacturers trying to edge each other out of the market. It's NEVER been this saturated with players.

The biggest catalyst to this mess was Y2K upgrades. EVERYONE got in on the Pre-2k upgrade boom. EVERYONE wanted in, and EVERYONE was making huge profits. Y2K is over now.

 

[apoppin]

You're (kind of) right . . . we will (probably) lose some (weaker) players.

That is not necessarily "bad" in an oversaturated market.

 

[human2k]

Originally posted by: acid16
Not all DDr prices drop. Corsair still seems to think they can sell their XMS for $190 for 512MB ........ uh, news check corsair......... Samsung Original DDR333 PC2700 is going for $70.

CHeck your prices, MicroPro/spartan tech/buymstar (decent vendors), have Corsair XMS DDR333 512MB for $100 a stick, not $190.

 

[tart666]

Damnit, somebody better come up with ways of requiring 1GB of RAM minimum! For all appliances, including TiVo's, routers, X-boxes, toasters, etc.

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: tart666
Damnit, somebody better come up with ways of requiring 1GB of RAM minimum! For all appliances, including TiVo's, routers, X-boxes, toasters, etc.

LOL . . . M$ to the "rescue" with "Langhorn". I bet it'll need a MINIMUM of 512K RAM just to boot (AND a 9700Pro, minumum).

 

[fkloster]

Originally posted by: tart666
Damnit, somebody better come up with ways of requiring 1GB of RAM minimum! For all appliances, including TiVo's, routers, X-boxes, toasters, etc.

I bought a gig of ram!!


(woops, its rdram...and I bought it a long time ago)

 

[human2k]

Originally posted by: tart666
Damnit, somebody better come up with ways of requiring 1GB of RAM minimum! For all appliances, including TiVo's, routers, X-boxes, toasters, etc.

I bought a new toast the other day, it asked me for a CD Key when I plugged it in.

 

[oldfart]

Not all DDr prices drop. Corsair still seems to think they can sell their XMS for $190 for 512MB ........ uh, news check corsair......... Samsung Original DDR333 PC2700 is going for $70.

Googlegear has Corsair 512 Meg PC 2700 for $83

 

[Megatomic]

I bought 1GB of Kingston PC2700 (Infineon chips) 2 weeks ago. I did my part to help.

 

[XBoxLPU]

How far will Original Samsung PC2700 go ?

DDR 400, with two dimms installed ?

Thinking about upgrading to a gb of ram

 

[Ice9]

Who owns corsair, anyway? Or do they just build modules with other manufacturer's drams?

 

[codehack2]

Originally posted by: Ice9
Who owns corsair, anyway? Or do they just build modules with other manufacturer's drams?

That is correct... they are tier 2. I think that Winbond chips seem to be appearing on most of thier sticks.

CH2

 

[TheFishingGeek]

Originally posted by: apoppin

Originally posted by: tart666
Damnit, somebody better come up with ways of requiring 1GB of RAM minimum! For all appliances, including TiVo's, routers, X-boxes, toasters, etc.

LOL . . . M$ to the "rescue" with "Langhorn". I bet it'll need a MINIMUM of 512K RAM just to boot (AND a 9700Pro, minumum).

Thank goodness my 386 here has 2 megs of RAM. That's more than enough to boot.

 

[apoppin]

New UPdate

Consolidation won't help the Dramurai any more

By Mike Magee: Friday 28 February 2003, 15:01


A REPORT BY market research company iSuppli said that ten years of constant consolidation isn't going to help the memory market recover from what it describes as the present manufacturing capacity glut.
The top 10 Dramurai in 2002 were Samsung (33%), Micron (18%), Infineon (13%), Hynix (13%), Nanya (6%), Elpida (4%), Winbond (3%), Mitsubishi (2%), Mosel Vitelic (2%) and Toshiba (2%) ? a far cry from the top 10 in 1992 and 1995.

Those lists included Fujitsu, TI, Motorola, Siemens, Hitachi, Hyundai, LG Semicon and OKI.



All of these have experienced consolidation and Mitsubishi recently confirmed it is selling its DRAM outfit to Elpida this year.

The percentile figures of the top three suppliers amounts to 64% of total memory sales worldwide.

According to iSuppli, further consolidation isn't going to fix anything quickly. Instead, DRAM needs killer apps and new drivers for demand.

Anyone got a killer app in mind? µ

"Killer Ap" . . . DEPEND on MS for code-bloat and the next-to-be-released O/S codenamed Langhorn . . .

 

[Ice9]

At least we know that when DDR is long dead, Rambus will still be around

With the PS2 and PS3 safely secured, they ain't goin' *nowhere*. And that's a hell of a killer app for 'em to have.

 

[codehack2]

Originally posted by: Ice9
At least we know that when DDR is long dead, Rambus will still be around

With the PS2 and PS3 safely secured, they ain't goin' *nowhere*. And that's a hell of a killer app for 'em to have.

What's the tech behind the PS3... RDRAM or one of the newer forth coming technologies?

CH2

 

[everman]

Wow, I "almost" bought 512 megs yesterday, but I'm going to wait and see what happens here! muahahaha

 

[Ice9]

What's the tech behind the PS3... RDRAM or one of the newer forth coming technologies?

Yellowstone memory with Redwood interconnects for each "cell". Both Rambus technologies, both licensed by Toshiba and Sony.