Debt-free: Invest or buy a house next?

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slugg

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2002
4,722
73
91
Do interest rates work the same on these loans?

Yes and no. Typically, yes, however it does depend on the financing agreement. They have the right to make the interest rate work however they want, as long as it's legal and in the contract. For example, if the loan is going to be fixed-rate, then it's pretty much going to work like any other loan. Pay close attention to out-of-pocket expenses, other fees (PMI, MIP, Impact Fee, CDD fees) and how they affect APR rates, which more accurately resemble what you'll actually be paying. The amortization rates are standardized, however it's possible to effectively front-load interest in the form of fees, which will increase your APR as well. Conversely, it's also possible to effectively rear-load interest with some creative financing on your part.

One thing I've heard of from owner financing is that they like to build in some early payoff penalties. This doesn't necessarily happen all the time; I'm just making you aware that terms and conditions may vary and you really should just read all the paperwork.
 

Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
Are my friends stupid for buying homes with little down and no savings? I have a lot more in savings than some (not all) of my friends, but they're all buying houses!
It depends on a few things. They're idiots if their mortgage is only affordable at the current interest rate. The main reason the housing market crashed was because nobody planned for rising interest rates, which is insane because interest rates were at record lows. Anyone who wasn't completely retarded could have predicted rising interest rates. When the interest rate increases by 1%, people with 30+ year loans see huge jumps in monthly payments because the first years are mostly interest. My mortgage is at 3.8% interest, but I could afford the mortgage up to 8% interest, and that's only if minimum payments are made. I've paid about 1/3 of the mortgage in 2 years, so the rates could probably go higher than 10% and I would still be ok. Interest rates are currently at record lows, so there's about 100% chance of the interest rate going up at some point in the future.

You can buy a home with little or no savings as long as the house is affordable. Go through your numbers and see how long it would take to pay the mortgage if you maintained your current life style, ate the same food, wore the same clothes, drove the same distance, and put every surplus dollar toward the mortgage. If it takes longer than 10-15 years, the house or condo is too expensive. Your home should be cheap enough that you can start with no savings and be able to build up savings in a short period of time. You should never put yourself in a situation where your income is just enough to cover the bills. That kind of stress will take years off your life, and it makes bankruptcy a very real threat at all times. You should also assume that your house will be worth LESS than what you paid if you decide to sell it. Being overly optimistic tends to bankrupt a lot of people.

Do you know anyone's rent that doesn't change for 10 years?
Detroit?

This has got to be the stupidest article I have ever read. He assumes a couple things
1. The stock market, year in and year out, will always give you an 8% ROI. Every. single. year.
Most articles about real estate are painfully stupid. Does anyone buy a piece of land then do nothing with it? Of course not. People buy houses or apartments so they can be leased. If you don't feel like dealing with cunty tenants, you can get into the real estate market by purchasing REIT stock. I'm pretty sure I casually recommended an REIT in that stock market thread I started last week. The dividend yield was something like 14%. REITs often have very good dividend yields because the profit margins are so high. As Pizza pointed out, mortgage payments stay the same while the rent being charged is always increasing.
 

spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
5
76
One would be a fool not to get a 30 year with as little down as possible and invest the rest. Easy to beat 4.25% in the market for the long term. It is literally like FREE money. With rates this low it is equally foolish to pay any extra on the principal, you're throwing away free money. That low rate is locked for 30 years and tax deductible so your effective rate is more like 3%.
 

MrDudeMan

Lifer
Jan 15, 2001
15,069
92
91
It depends on a few things. They're idiots if their mortgage is only affordable at the current interest rate. The main reason the housing market crashed was because nobody planned for rising interest rates, which is insane because interest rates were at record lows. Anyone who wasn't completely retarded could have predicted rising interest rates. When the interest rate increases by 1%, people with 30+ year loans see huge jumps in monthly payments because the first years are mostly interest. My mortgage is at 3.8% interest, but I could afford the mortgage up to 8% interest, and that's only if minimum payments are made. I've paid about 1/3 of the mortgage in 2 years, so the rates could probably go higher than 10% and I would still be ok. Interest rates are currently at record lows, so there's about 100% chance of the interest rate going up at some point in the future.

Where did he say his friends bought houses with a loan that's an ARM? Your understanding of a mortgage is...completely wrong if you think the rate can just bounce around, especially on a 15 or 30 year loan.

Ignore everything he said. If you can easily afford the house when the interest rate is X%, then you can afford the house as long as your lifestyle stays roughly the same or better. The rate can't increase and you'll never be obligated to pay more than your set monthly payment unless you get an ARM, which isn't always a bad idea. ARMs can be risky, but they also have a lot of potential upside if you understand the implications of having that kind of mortgage.
 

spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
5
76
Where did he say his friends bought houses with a loan that's an ARM? Your understanding of a mortgage is...completely wrong if you think the rate can just bounce around, especially on a 15 or 30 year loan.

Ignore everything he said. If you can easily afford the house when the interest rate is X%, then you can afford the house as long as your lifestyle stays roughly the same or better. The rate can't increase and you'll never be obligated to pay more than your set monthly payment unless you get an ARM, which isn't always a bad idea. ARMs can be risky, but they also have a lot of potential upside if you understand the implications of having that kind of mortgage.

I don't get that either at all. Mortgage is fixed which fights inflation.

There is simply no argument against maxing out a mortgage at 30 years.

It's just math and you can't argue the math. ARMs have their place but not for a roof over your head. They add too much risk, especially so at today's rates. It's free fucking money.
 

iGas

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2009
6,240
1
0
It is a good idea to buy if you are going to live there at least 3+ years. 5 years or more is even better.

Where are you living to have such cheap housing?

$565K is the average older 3 bedrooms house in my area. A new home would start around $650K for a 3 bedrooms bottom of the barrel in not so good neighborhoods .
 
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Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
Where did he say his friends bought houses with a loan that's an ARM? Your understanding of a mortgage is...completely wrong if you think the rate can just bounce around, especially on a 15 or 30 year loan.
But how many people get a fixed mortgage? The interest rates are much higher because you're buying an insurance policy against rate changes. Banks have armies of mathematicians and statisticians that do nothing but crunch numbers. If you're buying an insurance policy, you're going to be on the losing end of the deal almost every time. Banks are not stupid.
bank of america
30 year fixed = 4.584%
5 year ARM = 3.218
Relative difference: interest on the 30 year fixed is 42% higher.

The amount you are paying in interest is mostly in the first years, and the amount of interest decreases every year.


Here's a simple demonstration of how this works. Suppose you borrow 100k and the mortgage length is 30 years. For the first 5 years, a rate of 4.584% will cost $509 per month and costs this much in interest each year:
1 - $4,507.76
2 - $4,433.50
3 - $4,355.81
4 - $4,274.51
5 - $4,189.44
total = $21,761

To keep things fair, let's use the same monthly payment of $509 for a 5 year ARM at 3.218%. With this payment schedule, the mortgage length is only 23 years instead of 30 years, and interest paid in those first 5 years are:
1 - $3,153.06
2 - $3,055.96
3 - $2,955.74
4 - $2,852.23
5 - $2,745.40
total = $14,762

So what happens after 5 years? The 30 year mortgage still has $91,214.42 principle remaining for 25 years while the 5 year ARM has a principle of $84,033.39 remaining for 18 years. Let's say the interest rates are going up, it's no longer possible to finish the ARM in 18 years, and we're going to extend that to 25 years so it takes a total of 30 years. With that same limit of $509/month, what is the maximum interest rate the ARM can have before it becomes unaffordable? The answer is 5.4%, which would be a relative increase of 68%. This leaves us with a question. Do you think the interest rates will jump 68% or more in the next 5 years? If yes, get the 30 year fixed. If no, get the 5 year ARM.
 

spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
5
76
It is a good idea to buy if you are going to live there at least 3+ years. 5 years or more is even better.

Where are you living to have such cheap housing?

$565K is the average older 3 bedrooms house in my area. A new home would start around $650K for a new 3 bedrooms bottom of the barrel home in not so good neighborhoods .

Move. Increase your net worth.

Move.
 

dighn

Lifer
Aug 12, 2001
22,820
4
81
with that price I'd buy in a heartbeat. it's not that much money for a pretty stable piece of investment that provides a ton of utility and comfort.

with the ridiculous prices here (vancouver area, try 3x that for a little condo) I'd rather invest.
 

Rage187

Lifer
Dec 30, 2000
14,276
4
81
Do you think the interest rates will jump 68% or more in the next 5 years? If yes, get the 30 year fixed. If no, get the 5 year ARM.

Yes. Once QE ends, which may be next month, expect over 5 within 2 months.
 

spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
5
76
But how many people get a fixed mortgage? The interest rates are much higher because you're buying an insurance policy against rate changes. Banks have armies of mathematicians and statisticians that do nothing but crunch numbers. If you're buying an insurance policy, you're going to be on the losing end of the deal almost every time. Banks are not stupid.
bank of america
30 year fixed = 4.584%
5 year ARM = 3.218
Relative difference: interest on the 30 year fixed is 42% higher.

The amount you are paying in interest is mostly in the first years, and the amount of interest decreases every year.


Here's a simple demonstration of how this works. Suppose you borrow 100k and the mortgage length is 30 years. For the first 5 years, a rate of 4.584% will cost $509 per month and costs this much in interest each year:
1 - $4,507.76
2 - $4,433.50
3 - $4,355.81
4 - $4,274.51
5 - $4,189.44
total = $21,761

To keep things fair, let's use the same monthly payment of $509 for a 5 year ARM at 3.218%. With this payment schedule, the mortgage length is only 23 years instead of 30 years, and interest paid in those first 5 years are:
1 - $3,153.06
2 - $3,055.96
3 - $2,955.74
4 - $2,852.23
5 - $2,745.40
total = $14,762

So what happens after 5 years? The 30 year mortgage still has $91,214.42 principle remaining for 25 years while the 5 year ARM has a principle of $84,033.39 remaining for 18 years. Let's say the interest rates are going up, it's no longer possible to finish the ARM in 18 years, and we're going to extend that to 25 years so it takes a total of 30 years. With that same limit of $509/month, what is the maximum interest rate the ARM can have before it becomes unaffordable? The answer is 5.4%, which would be a relative increase of 68%. This leaves us with a question. Do you think the interest rates will jump 68% or more in the next 5 years? If yes, get the 30 year fixed. If no, get the 5 year ARM.

Wow. I mean. Just WOW.

Do you even do you even math bro?

Wow. I mean....WOW! I need to switch careers because people are really this stupid.


-edit-
WOW! WOW! I don't mean to sound condescending but do you have any idea how compounding interest works?
 
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spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
5
76
Care to show where my numbers are wrong? Here's a calculator you can use:
https://www.usbank.com/calculators/jsp/MortgageLoan.jsp

You are totally neglecting the gains from the market and focusing short term.

Your numbers arent wrong. Your 10-30 year wealth building are.

May I ask how old you are? I didn't get my wake up call on wealth building till my late 20s. Damn I was foolish and stupid. Now every decision I make financially is "will I make money from this"?

Can my money make more money for me? Can my money make more money over 5, 10, 20, 30 years?

What is my net worth? How can I make my money make more money for me. I plan to retire by age 50 based on my money. Just 8 years to go.

Make your money make more money for you. That's what some call "income". Others call it "work". My goal is to not work, I'm retiring early before 50.

"work" labor as in I have to work. I'd rather just not work. One can chose to live day to day, week to week, whittling away at debt.

Or one can use debt wisely to increase net worth and wealth over the long term.

BUILD WEALTH OVER THE LONG TERM!! MAKE YOUR CAPITAL MAKE MORE MONEY FOR YOU!
 
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Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
You are totally neglecting the gains from the market and focusing short term.

Your numbers arent wrong. Your 10-30 year wealth building are.

May I ask how old you are? I didn't get my wake up call on wealth building till my late 20s. Damn I was foolish and stupid.
Late 20s. I want to own my home before I jump head first into investing. As I said in my first post, the numbers show that I could keep afloat on minimum wage once my mortgage is completely done. That's a really great position to be in. How many people put up with bullshit at work because they absolutely need that job? I would probably be more successful at work just by having that aura of confidence, not caring if I get fired or let go for other reasons. I was always more liked at the jobs that I didn't care about - retail stores, mcdonalds, etc. The other great thing about having a low debt load is that it reduces the chances of being forced into a position to sell. Nobody forces you to sell things when the market is booming. People are forced to sell when it crashes. In 2008, lots of people lost their jobs and were only able to find part time or minimum wage work. If there was a mortgage to pay, people lost their homes. They had to walk away at a huge loss, abandoning the house when the market is at the absolute bottom. The middle class people who didn't have debt, such as my parents and most other baby boomers, did fine. The upper class people who had surplus cash made an absolute killing because every stock and piece of property was on sale. Intel was half price, microsoft was half price, condo buildings half price.

So that's my motivation. Do everything possible to avoid being forced to sell when the market is down. It's actually very similar to the keynsian approach to economics. Save money and pay debts while I can. When the market crashes, I'll buy as much stock as possible. If I'm in a really really good position, I might be able to buy a house, move into the house, then rent out the condo I currently live in. Or I could stay in this condo and rent out the house. It's a very conservative approach to wealth building.

What is my net worth? How can I make my money make more money for me. I plan to retire by age 50 based on my money. Just 8 years to go.
Don't do this. You'll literally go crazy after not working for 30 years. I would bet the only reason Warren Buffet is still sharp is because he's still working at age 83. He might work fewer hours, but he's still working.
 
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spidey07

No Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
65,469
5
76
At your age you should really follow my advice.

I wish i had known what I know now back then.

Do the math. Build wealth. Make your money make more money.
 
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iGas

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2009
6,240
1
0
Move. Increase your net worth.

Move.
I'm contemplating at moving, but the city I live in is the nicest city in Canada to live. Other cities may in crease my income by 50-100% however winter is 6-8 months of the year with an average of 28-35 days per year that the temperature drop below -20C.

That said,
I'm renting at the moment, and putting away $10K into retirement fund and $20-30K into my stocks portfolio per annum. However, I'm contemplating at buying a house, because it give the freedom to modify it to my liking.
 

MrDudeMan

Lifer
Jan 15, 2001
15,069
92
91
But how many people get a fixed mortgage? The interest rates are much higher because you're buying an insurance policy against rate changes. Banks have armies of mathematicians and statisticians that do nothing but crunch numbers. If you're buying an insurance policy, you're going to be on the losing end of the deal almost every time. Banks are not stupid.
bank of america
30 year fixed = 4.584%
5 year ARM = 3.218
Relative difference: interest on the 30 year fixed is 42% higher.

The amount you are paying in interest is mostly in the first years, and the amount of interest decreases every year.


Here's a simple demonstration of how this works. Suppose you borrow 100k and the mortgage length is 30 years. For the first 5 years, a rate of 4.584% will cost $509 per month and costs this much in interest each year:
1 - $4,507.76
2 - $4,433.50
3 - $4,355.81
4 - $4,274.51
5 - $4,189.44
total = $21,761

To keep things fair, let's use the same monthly payment of $509 for a 5 year ARM at 3.218%. With this payment schedule, the mortgage length is only 23 years instead of 30 years, and interest paid in those first 5 years are:
1 - $3,153.06
2 - $3,055.96
3 - $2,955.74
4 - $2,852.23
5 - $2,745.40
total = $14,762

So what happens after 5 years? The 30 year mortgage still has $91,214.42 principle remaining for 25 years while the 5 year ARM has a principle of $84,033.39 remaining for 18 years. Let's say the interest rates are going up, it's no longer possible to finish the ARM in 18 years, and we're going to extend that to 25 years so it takes a total of 30 years. With that same limit of $509/month, what is the maximum interest rate the ARM can have before it becomes unaffordable? The answer is 5.4%, which would be a relative increase of 68%. This leaves us with a question. Do you think the interest rates will jump 68% or more in the next 5 years? If yes, get the 30 year fixed. If no, get the 5 year ARM.

There's plenty of gray area with real estate investments, but this really isn't it. You can be as conservative as you want, but you aren't really building wealth in a way that's significantly outpacing inflation. No one with substantial worth accumulated it by being ultra-conservative and planning for the market to crash so they could get by on minimum wage with no debt. You're looking at this literally all wrong.

Your numbers neglect reality. ARM rates can double, not just raise a little bit. You should look into typical rates for ARMs once they start increasing. Sometimes people get lucky, but often they don't. It's not unusual for an ARM to go to 12% and that's when the rates are stable. It can go as high as 20%. Negative amortization due to caps can end up causing the loan to extend beyond anything you calculated as well. That's just one example of where it can go wrong; there are plenty of other examples. The primary reason to avoid an ARM, especially if you're planning on keeping it for a while, is the huge risk of the rate inflating to an unreasonable level.

I have multiple real estate investments and none of them were purchased with an ARM. I'm very glad I did it that way. Slight savings up front pale in comparison to the potentially huge increases later. Also, being able to have an exact budget isn't meaningless. Someone else is covering all of the costs, so there's no reason I should stick my neck out to try to save a few pennies.

ARMs wouldn't exist if they were pure evil and never had a chance to offer some savings, but it usually doesn't work out like that especially for a long term purchase.
 

AViking

Platinum Member
Sep 12, 2013
2,264
1
0
ARMs are one of the primary reasons we have a housing problem.

This idea that you NEED to buy a home is wrong. It's all based on rents, interest rates, and other investments. First get debt free. You did, so good. Then look at the numbers closely. Do not under any circumstances use this forum as an oracle. Learn how the math works or get 2 professional people to do it for you.

The good news is that housing is looking up. I wouldn't buy a home for that reason though. Like I said, buy it because you want to live there long term and because you can afford it.

I had been renting in the USA and I literally made a killing investing my money instead. It's starting to look like next year might be worth looking at buying a home again but it's been about 8 years with no return on this so called housing investment. Look at a graph of housing prices and you'll see that most markets have had a downward slope since 2005. Some places are downright terrible still so be careful.

It's no fun to put your money in something and lose 20%.
 

jaedaliu

Platinum Member
Feb 25, 2005
2,670
1
81
At your age you should really follow my advice.

I wish i had known what I know now back then.

Do the math. Build wealth. Make your money make more money.

Teach us. What's your method for guaranteeing continuous, more than current mortgage rate returns on investment? How do I make my money make money for me?
 

AViking

Platinum Member
Sep 12, 2013
2,264
1
0
I'm waiting for him to suggest investing in Herbalife but maybe he'll surprise me.
 
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