It almost didn’t happen, but once again, football is back! Much like the start of free agency, I’m a little later than normal, but that doesn’t make it any less exciting. What’s in store for the first Favre-less football season spanning three decades? Stay tuned!
As usual, I will start with my disclaimers. I do not claim to be an expert; I am not vying for a job with ESPN. I’m just a football fan that likes to discuss the game. Some of my picks will be good, while others will be terrible. I try to be unbiased, but it’s always there in some form, so you’ll have to pardon me if I pick the Cowboys to win a game. Also, people tend to get personally insulted when I pick against their team…believe it or not, that’s really not what I meant. Finally – I don’t do game by game predictions; these are rough estimates, so these exact win-loss totals might not be possible. I don’t really care, so don’t complain.
Previous threads:
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4) – They massed an absurd amount of talent in the short free agency period. Personally, I’m not among those expecting an MVP-season out of Vick, but they’ll be strong either way. The defense is nasty on the edges but soft in the middle – a smart coordinator could take advantage of this. I expect them to be a bit rocky in the beginning, but they have too much talent to not pick them.
2. Dallas Cowboys (8-8) – A year in flux for Dallas. Count me among those that hates Jason Garrett, but Rob Ryan could have a huge impact on the defense – and its much needed. The offense shed five starters, and while Roy Williams and Marion Barber won’t be missed, the offensive line has a lot to prove after losing three starters, including multiple former pro bowlers.
3. New York Giants (7-9) – Eli has to throw fewer picks, and that might be harder to do with all the players they lost on offense. The defense can still generate pressure, but isn’t great after that.
4. Washington Redskins (7-9) – The Redskins should be fairly solid on defense, despite overpaying for Stephen Bowen, they certainly have a lot of talent on that side of the ball – but not enough to carry their abysmal offense. Is there a single player on offense that excites anyone? Hightower? Sexy Rexy/John Beck?
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (11-5) – The Packers finished the season strong after making the playoffs as a wild card, and they kept that team largely intact, making them an easy favorite. Aaron Rodgers keeps getting better, but I’m not completely sold on their running game. They should win the division, but not without challenges.
2. Chicago Bears (10-6) – The defense carried this team to a division crown last year. Cutler needs to step it up if they want to take the next step. He has the physical tools, and while Roy Williams was a disappointment on Dallas, he is still an addition to their offense. The o-line is troublesome, though, and doesn’t help Cutler out much.
3. Detroit Lions (9-7) – The Lions have a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball, but they’ve struggled to stay healthy. If they can stay healthy, they’ll push for a playoff spot. The defense is among the league’s best up front, but they fade in the secondary. Could see some exciting shootouts with this team – Lions/Packers will be fun games.
4. Minnesota Vikings (6-10) – Does anyone really think McNabb is going to rejuvenate his career, or Minnesota becoming the Florida of the NFL – where old players go to retire? Adrian Peterson is still a beast, of course, and while the defense has some talent, they lost some talent too. I don’t foresee a great year for the Vikings.
NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals (9-7) – Generally speaking, some team in the NFL goes from worst-to-first, and I’ve got the Cardinals. I think they overpaid to get him, but Kevin Kolb will have a big impact on the offense – the fact that he’s throwing to Larry Fitzgerald doesn’t hurt. Hard to imagine this team with a winning record in another division, but the NFC West is soft enough that it could happen.
2. St Louis Rams (9-7) – Sam Bradford looked surprisingly good as a rookie last season, but what else do they have? Steven Jackson is getting old, which is why the Rams brought in some better backups. This team has some decent building blocks for the future, but I don’t think they’re quite there yet.
3. San Francisco 49ers (7-9) – Lots of weapons in the passing game, but at this point, it may be time to move on from Alex Smith. Gore looks good in spurts, but is injury prone. The defense is completely rebuilt with a new coach – it will take time for them to come together.
4. Seattle Seahawks (4-12) – Despite making the playoffs as a 7-9 team, and knocking off the Saints, the Seahawks just aren’t very good. They made some good forward-looking moves in the offseason, dumping Hasselback and shoring up the offensive line, but it was at the cost of today. My “home team” should finish at the bottom of the sewer of the NFL.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (11-5) – Drew Brees had a bit of an off year last year, with more picks than usual, but its hard to see that happening again. The offense should be very strong on the Saints, and the defense filled some gaps as well. I see them retaking the division.
2. Atlanta Falcons (11-5) – Matt Ryan is emerging as an elite QB, and Julio Jones should add another element to their offense. I’ve never been a big fan of Michael Turner though – he’s not as consistent as you want your primary back to be, and I’m not big on their defense in any aspect. They’ll still be good, but not as good as last year.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) – The Buccaneers surprised just about everyone last season, but I don’t see them improving. Yes, they’re young, and yes, Josh Freeman looked better than anyone thought he would, but this division has some strong teams. If its any consolation, they’d win the NFC West.
4. Carolina Panthers (3-13) – Last year, if I needed a fantasy defense, I just scoured the free agent wire for whomever was playing Carolina. This team was bad. Does Cam Newton really turn them around? Hard to imagine that. He might get there with time and more pieces around them, but he won’t do it this year.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots (13-3) – The Patriots stumbled in the playoffs last year, but they still have Brady, Chad Johnson is aging but Brady will get everything they can from him. The 1-2 punch of Wilfork and Haynesworth could be devasting if Haynesworth gets his head out of his ass, but I’m not too sure about the rest of the defense. It won’t matter much – they’ll still put up points in droves with Brady and their o-line.
2. New York Jets (11-5) – The Jets were really banking on landing Asmogugah, which would have given them perhaps the best CB combo in history. It didn’t pan out, which hurt their offseason. Still, the defense isn’t the problem – it’s the offense. If Plaxico can still play, he’s an upgrade over Edwards, and Sanchez still has time to mature. They’ll still be strong, but the offense will decide if they can take the next step.
3. Miami Dolphins (7-9) – I hate Chad Henne for personal reasons, so it brings me joy that he isn’t turning out to be very good. The Dolphins are fast on offense, but not terribly skilled, and the defense won’t be enough to carry them in this division.
4. Buffalo Bills (3-13) – Well, the Bills got rid of the only player that has been good for the past few years. That’s really about all I need to say. Are they in Canada yet?
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-4) – Flacco has been in the league a few years now, and he has a solid combo of receivers in Bolden and Evans. The defense is still scary, but aging – they need to make their mark soon, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis won’t be here forever. They’ve got a shot this year.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) – The Steelers are still the Steelers – they’ve got an intimidating defense, potential for explosion on offense, and a leaky o-line that will leave Roethlisberger battered and throwing picks at bad times.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (5-11) – I’m going to pretend I didn’t pick them to win the Superbowl last year. Its really hard to gauge this team now – the offense has been headlined by Palmer to Johnson, and they’re both gone (along with T.O.). There’s not a lot to get excited about here – but hey, maybe they’ll surprise us. With this many new faces, its possible.
4. Cleveland Browns (5-11) – Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis aren’t a bad combo lining up behind center, and the Browns have an underrated offensive line. The new defense might be a good step, but this team still has a ways to go.
AFC West
1. San Diego (12-4) – I like the Chargers this year. Rivers is still among the very best QBs, and his receivers should be together more consistently. Defense, though, is where they’ve improved the most – the addition of Bob Sanders and Takeo Spikes could be huge, if Sanders stays healthy of course.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) – The Chiefs looked good last year, but I don’t see it happening again. I’ve never been high on Cassel, and I don’t necessarily see Charles being as strong as people expect. However, Breaston was a nice addition. They’ll still challenge teams, but hard to see them defending their crown.
3. Oakland Raiders (6-10) – The Raiders finished with a decent record last season…and proceeded to dump two of their best players. They aren’t completely hopeless, McFadden is still solid when healthy, but they won’t threaten the top teams.
4. Denver Broncos (4-12) – Orton might be the best of their trio of QBs, but he’s not the elite guy they need to reignite this franchise. They’ve got an acceptable, but not stellar set of running backs, and a few decent players on defense, but they’ll still struggle.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans (10-6) – This is the Texans biggest chance they’ve ever had. They still have a powerful offense, and the Colts will likely stumble out of the gate. Wade Phillips is a much better coordinator than head coach and should help the defense, which has some solid players. I’m not sure Schaub is really a championship caliber QB, though, even if he can put up numbers.
2. Indianapolis Colts (6-10) – And so the mighty fall. Without Peyton, the Colts offense is a hollow shell of its normal self. The defense has plenty of holes, which doesn’t help things.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10) – David Garrard is gone. Normally, a team cutting its starting QB the week of the season opener is bigger news – but Garrard hasn’t been much of a factor lately. McCown isn’t great himself, but its not too much of a loss. Jones-Drew used to be a powerhouse, but he’s wearing down. Jags need to start rebuilding.
4. Tennessee Titans (6-10) – Look, I’ve been vocal with my criticism of Vince Young, but an aging Matt Hasselback doesn’t exactly right the ship. They’ve still got the best RB in football, but really…that’s it.
Playoffs
Wild Card Round
(3) Packers vs (6) Falcons – Packers offense overpowers the Falcons defense.
(4) Cardinals vs (5) Bears – Bears knock off the underpowered home team.
(3) Ravens vs (6) Steelers – Ed Reed picks of Roethlisberger following a Terrell Suggs blitz to seal it.
(4) Texans vs (5) Jets – The Jets defense shuts down Schaub.
Divisional Round
(1) Eagles vs (5) Bears – A rested Eagles squad puts up big points on the Bears tired defense.
(2) Saints vs (3) Packers – Packers top the Saints in a shootout.
(1) Patriots vs (5) Jets - Rematch of the AFC East rivals goes in favor of Brady.
(2) Chargers vs (3) Ravens – Chargers edge the Ravens in a lower scoring than expected game.
Championship Round
(1) Eagles vs (3) Packers – The Eagles team is playing together by this point. Back to the Superbowl for the 2nd time in the Reid era.
(1) Patriots vs (2) Chargers – Chargers offense continues to roll on to the Superbowl.
Superbowl
Chargers over Eagles – Phillip Rivers gets his trophy, people stop putting him in the leagues of “best QBs never to win the Superbowl”.
Alright – I’ll be the first to admit, last year’s picks weren’t great, here’s to hoping it happens again! But, this is the NFL – you never know what you’re gonna get, so we'll see what happens this year.
And we’re off! ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL???
edit: Modified following news of Peyton's 2nd surgery.
As usual, I will start with my disclaimers. I do not claim to be an expert; I am not vying for a job with ESPN. I’m just a football fan that likes to discuss the game. Some of my picks will be good, while others will be terrible. I try to be unbiased, but it’s always there in some form, so you’ll have to pardon me if I pick the Cowboys to win a game. Also, people tend to get personally insulted when I pick against their team…believe it or not, that’s really not what I meant. Finally – I don’t do game by game predictions; these are rough estimates, so these exact win-loss totals might not be possible. I don’t really care, so don’t complain.
Previous threads:
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4) – They massed an absurd amount of talent in the short free agency period. Personally, I’m not among those expecting an MVP-season out of Vick, but they’ll be strong either way. The defense is nasty on the edges but soft in the middle – a smart coordinator could take advantage of this. I expect them to be a bit rocky in the beginning, but they have too much talent to not pick them.
2. Dallas Cowboys (8-8) – A year in flux for Dallas. Count me among those that hates Jason Garrett, but Rob Ryan could have a huge impact on the defense – and its much needed. The offense shed five starters, and while Roy Williams and Marion Barber won’t be missed, the offensive line has a lot to prove after losing three starters, including multiple former pro bowlers.
3. New York Giants (7-9) – Eli has to throw fewer picks, and that might be harder to do with all the players they lost on offense. The defense can still generate pressure, but isn’t great after that.
4. Washington Redskins (7-9) – The Redskins should be fairly solid on defense, despite overpaying for Stephen Bowen, they certainly have a lot of talent on that side of the ball – but not enough to carry their abysmal offense. Is there a single player on offense that excites anyone? Hightower? Sexy Rexy/John Beck?
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (11-5) – The Packers finished the season strong after making the playoffs as a wild card, and they kept that team largely intact, making them an easy favorite. Aaron Rodgers keeps getting better, but I’m not completely sold on their running game. They should win the division, but not without challenges.
2. Chicago Bears (10-6) – The defense carried this team to a division crown last year. Cutler needs to step it up if they want to take the next step. He has the physical tools, and while Roy Williams was a disappointment on Dallas, he is still an addition to their offense. The o-line is troublesome, though, and doesn’t help Cutler out much.
3. Detroit Lions (9-7) – The Lions have a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball, but they’ve struggled to stay healthy. If they can stay healthy, they’ll push for a playoff spot. The defense is among the league’s best up front, but they fade in the secondary. Could see some exciting shootouts with this team – Lions/Packers will be fun games.
4. Minnesota Vikings (6-10) – Does anyone really think McNabb is going to rejuvenate his career, or Minnesota becoming the Florida of the NFL – where old players go to retire? Adrian Peterson is still a beast, of course, and while the defense has some talent, they lost some talent too. I don’t foresee a great year for the Vikings.
NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals (9-7) – Generally speaking, some team in the NFL goes from worst-to-first, and I’ve got the Cardinals. I think they overpaid to get him, but Kevin Kolb will have a big impact on the offense – the fact that he’s throwing to Larry Fitzgerald doesn’t hurt. Hard to imagine this team with a winning record in another division, but the NFC West is soft enough that it could happen.
2. St Louis Rams (9-7) – Sam Bradford looked surprisingly good as a rookie last season, but what else do they have? Steven Jackson is getting old, which is why the Rams brought in some better backups. This team has some decent building blocks for the future, but I don’t think they’re quite there yet.
3. San Francisco 49ers (7-9) – Lots of weapons in the passing game, but at this point, it may be time to move on from Alex Smith. Gore looks good in spurts, but is injury prone. The defense is completely rebuilt with a new coach – it will take time for them to come together.
4. Seattle Seahawks (4-12) – Despite making the playoffs as a 7-9 team, and knocking off the Saints, the Seahawks just aren’t very good. They made some good forward-looking moves in the offseason, dumping Hasselback and shoring up the offensive line, but it was at the cost of today. My “home team” should finish at the bottom of the sewer of the NFL.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (11-5) – Drew Brees had a bit of an off year last year, with more picks than usual, but its hard to see that happening again. The offense should be very strong on the Saints, and the defense filled some gaps as well. I see them retaking the division.
2. Atlanta Falcons (11-5) – Matt Ryan is emerging as an elite QB, and Julio Jones should add another element to their offense. I’ve never been a big fan of Michael Turner though – he’s not as consistent as you want your primary back to be, and I’m not big on their defense in any aspect. They’ll still be good, but not as good as last year.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) – The Buccaneers surprised just about everyone last season, but I don’t see them improving. Yes, they’re young, and yes, Josh Freeman looked better than anyone thought he would, but this division has some strong teams. If its any consolation, they’d win the NFC West.
4. Carolina Panthers (3-13) – Last year, if I needed a fantasy defense, I just scoured the free agent wire for whomever was playing Carolina. This team was bad. Does Cam Newton really turn them around? Hard to imagine that. He might get there with time and more pieces around them, but he won’t do it this year.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots (13-3) – The Patriots stumbled in the playoffs last year, but they still have Brady, Chad Johnson is aging but Brady will get everything they can from him. The 1-2 punch of Wilfork and Haynesworth could be devasting if Haynesworth gets his head out of his ass, but I’m not too sure about the rest of the defense. It won’t matter much – they’ll still put up points in droves with Brady and their o-line.
2. New York Jets (11-5) – The Jets were really banking on landing Asmogugah, which would have given them perhaps the best CB combo in history. It didn’t pan out, which hurt their offseason. Still, the defense isn’t the problem – it’s the offense. If Plaxico can still play, he’s an upgrade over Edwards, and Sanchez still has time to mature. They’ll still be strong, but the offense will decide if they can take the next step.
3. Miami Dolphins (7-9) – I hate Chad Henne for personal reasons, so it brings me joy that he isn’t turning out to be very good. The Dolphins are fast on offense, but not terribly skilled, and the defense won’t be enough to carry them in this division.
4. Buffalo Bills (3-13) – Well, the Bills got rid of the only player that has been good for the past few years. That’s really about all I need to say. Are they in Canada yet?
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-4) – Flacco has been in the league a few years now, and he has a solid combo of receivers in Bolden and Evans. The defense is still scary, but aging – they need to make their mark soon, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis won’t be here forever. They’ve got a shot this year.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) – The Steelers are still the Steelers – they’ve got an intimidating defense, potential for explosion on offense, and a leaky o-line that will leave Roethlisberger battered and throwing picks at bad times.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (5-11) – I’m going to pretend I didn’t pick them to win the Superbowl last year. Its really hard to gauge this team now – the offense has been headlined by Palmer to Johnson, and they’re both gone (along with T.O.). There’s not a lot to get excited about here – but hey, maybe they’ll surprise us. With this many new faces, its possible.
4. Cleveland Browns (5-11) – Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis aren’t a bad combo lining up behind center, and the Browns have an underrated offensive line. The new defense might be a good step, but this team still has a ways to go.
AFC West
1. San Diego (12-4) – I like the Chargers this year. Rivers is still among the very best QBs, and his receivers should be together more consistently. Defense, though, is where they’ve improved the most – the addition of Bob Sanders and Takeo Spikes could be huge, if Sanders stays healthy of course.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) – The Chiefs looked good last year, but I don’t see it happening again. I’ve never been high on Cassel, and I don’t necessarily see Charles being as strong as people expect. However, Breaston was a nice addition. They’ll still challenge teams, but hard to see them defending their crown.
3. Oakland Raiders (6-10) – The Raiders finished with a decent record last season…and proceeded to dump two of their best players. They aren’t completely hopeless, McFadden is still solid when healthy, but they won’t threaten the top teams.
4. Denver Broncos (4-12) – Orton might be the best of their trio of QBs, but he’s not the elite guy they need to reignite this franchise. They’ve got an acceptable, but not stellar set of running backs, and a few decent players on defense, but they’ll still struggle.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans (10-6) – This is the Texans biggest chance they’ve ever had. They still have a powerful offense, and the Colts will likely stumble out of the gate. Wade Phillips is a much better coordinator than head coach and should help the defense, which has some solid players. I’m not sure Schaub is really a championship caliber QB, though, even if he can put up numbers.
2. Indianapolis Colts (6-10) – And so the mighty fall. Without Peyton, the Colts offense is a hollow shell of its normal self. The defense has plenty of holes, which doesn’t help things.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10) – David Garrard is gone. Normally, a team cutting its starting QB the week of the season opener is bigger news – but Garrard hasn’t been much of a factor lately. McCown isn’t great himself, but its not too much of a loss. Jones-Drew used to be a powerhouse, but he’s wearing down. Jags need to start rebuilding.
4. Tennessee Titans (6-10) – Look, I’ve been vocal with my criticism of Vince Young, but an aging Matt Hasselback doesn’t exactly right the ship. They’ve still got the best RB in football, but really…that’s it.
Playoffs
Wild Card Round
(3) Packers vs (6) Falcons – Packers offense overpowers the Falcons defense.
(4) Cardinals vs (5) Bears – Bears knock off the underpowered home team.
(3) Ravens vs (6) Steelers – Ed Reed picks of Roethlisberger following a Terrell Suggs blitz to seal it.
(4) Texans vs (5) Jets – The Jets defense shuts down Schaub.
Divisional Round
(1) Eagles vs (5) Bears – A rested Eagles squad puts up big points on the Bears tired defense.
(2) Saints vs (3) Packers – Packers top the Saints in a shootout.
(1) Patriots vs (5) Jets - Rematch of the AFC East rivals goes in favor of Brady.
(2) Chargers vs (3) Ravens – Chargers edge the Ravens in a lower scoring than expected game.
Championship Round
(1) Eagles vs (3) Packers – The Eagles team is playing together by this point. Back to the Superbowl for the 2nd time in the Reid era.
(1) Patriots vs (2) Chargers – Chargers offense continues to roll on to the Superbowl.
Superbowl
Chargers over Eagles – Phillip Rivers gets his trophy, people stop putting him in the leagues of “best QBs never to win the Superbowl”.
Alright – I’ll be the first to admit, last year’s picks weren’t great, here’s to hoping it happens again! But, this is the NFL – you never know what you’re gonna get, so we'll see what happens this year.
And we’re off! ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL???
edit: Modified following news of Peyton's 2nd surgery.
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