Hello, football fans! We're back, just in time for the start of the 2016 NFL Season! After a year where I picked the Panthers to go 6-10 and the Cowboys to go 11-5, I'm ready for another year of predictions! I'll forgo the caveats - by now you know them, and you'll ignore them anyway, so on with the picks!
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (8-8) – Tony Romo is already out. Prescott already looks better than any of their backups last year, but he’s still a rookie. Elliott should provide a shot in the arm to the running game and take pressure off Prescott, but the defense wasn’t great last year and didn’t get better.
New York Giants (7-9) – A lot of flux in the Giants lately, but can they really come together? Eli Manning has looked worse and worse each year, but he’s still throwing to one of the best young receivers in the league, so they’ll move the ball through the air. Made moves to improve a woefully bad defense, but I don’t think it will be enough to turn the franchise around.
Washington Redskins (7-9) – Putting a lot of eggs in the Kirk Cousins basket. I don’t see it. Alfred Morris hasn’t looked great, but are they better without him? Josh Norman was a surprising and good pick for the defense, but I think he was a bit overrated. They won the division last year on the strength of it being a dumpster fire, which it still is, so they’ve got a shot…but I just don’t see Cousins taking them that far.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-10) – Trading Sam Bradford was an incredible future-looking move for the Eagles. They took advantage of a desperate Vikings team, but likely mortgaged their season in the process. Wentz might be good someday (if he doesn’t get locked in the bathroom), but a middling running game, weak receiving core, and blah defense won’t do much for Pederson’s first year.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers (12-4) – A lot of people, myself included, said the Packers would be fine no matter who was at WR as long as Rodgers was throwing the ball. Apparently that’s not true, he’s human after all. Assuming health is better than 2015, they should bounce back and win the division, especially given the QB situation in Minnesota.
Minnesota Vikings (8-8) – Oof. Bridgewater goes down, Bradford comes in, has to learn the offense in a week. Good luck. Peterson is still superhuman, but he’s getting older, he can’t keep doing this forever. They still have a strong running game, but the QB situation is going to drag them down.
Chicago Bears (6-10) – The receiving corps should make strides this year, but a bad offensive line, no running game, and the always inconsistent Jay Cutler is going to lead to a pretty slow offense. The defense isn’t bad up front, but it won’t be enough to carry the team.
Detroit Lions (5-11) – Calvin Johnson made this team a factor every game, you never knew when he was going to explode. He’s gone now and there’s not much else special left behind. They should struggle.
NFC South
Carolina Panthers (11-5) – Cam Newton exploded last year on his way to the MVP and the Super Bowl. I don’t think they’ll be as solid this year, not because I think they lost all that much (I already said I thought Norma was overrated), more because I think last year was a bit of overachieving. The division still isn’t great so they still have a good chance to win it, but I don’t see them repeating.
Atlanta Falcons (10-6) – Atlanta was a funny team last year, starting strong then fading fast, all the while being the only team to knock off the Panthers in the regular season. Freeman looked great and I expect the offense to be solid, the defense is young and not exactly top tier but I do expect some improvement as they come together.
New Orleans Saints (7-9) – Drew Brees is still Drew Brees, but the defense was just completely horrendous last year. Brees is getting older, the other offensive weapons aren’t anything to write home about, and the defense isn’t really better yet. The interior line should be solid but that’s about it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10) – Wintston looked great as a rookie QB, they can run the ball, but there isn’t a lot else to like about this team. The offensive line can’t protect the quarterback, which is never good for a young QB, and the defense isn’t going to stop many people.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) – Losing Lynch is going to hurt this team in more ways than one. A young, unproven corps of backs running behind a bad offensive line is going to make for busy days for Russell Wilson, who improved a lot last year. The defense isn’t as deep as it used to be, but they’re still the scariest set of starters in the league.
Arizona Cardinals (10-6) - A lot of people have the Cardinals in the Super Bowl this year. I just don’t see it. They’re still solid, Palmer can still play, the secondary is still great, but on the whole the team isn’t getting any younger – in fact their best offseason acquisition is 34. They’ll be good, but I see them stepping back, not forward.
LA Rams (5-11) – Goff and LA may be the future, but it won’t be 2016. Gurley is a stud, but the line is inexperienced and hasn’t lived up to its billing. The defense was solid last year, but lost a few players which won’t help, especially if they’re on the field more. They will struggle.
San Francisco 49ers (4-12) – The 49ers coaching carousel continues on to Chip Kelly. How the mighty have fallen. In just a few short years Kelly went from potentially revolutionizing the game with his high-pace offense to falling flat and being fired. I don’t think San Fran has the tools he needs to succeed.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (11-5) – The Bills were pleasantly surprising last year despite an off-season by LeSean McCoy. The offensive line is decent, the line is strong, Sammy Watkins is starting to live up to his billing, and Taylor exceeded expectations. Combined with the issues in New England, I see them taking the east.
New England Patriots (9-7) – Call me crazy but I see an off year for the Patriots. Brady’s suspension will hurt the start of the season, and they lost some solid players on defense. Sure, sure, the Patriots have been retooling and replacing players forever. It’s nothing new. I just see them coming down a notch this season.
New York Jets (8-8) – Overachieved last season, any team that’s holding their breath that Ryan Fitzpatrick will sign an extension can’t be taken too seriously, can it? Added Forte to the offense, but he’s not the force he used to be. Revis is back to anchor a decent defense, but in a stronger division, I don’t see them repeating last year’s success.
Miami Dolphins (5-11) – The defensive line sounds great but they’re all old and underperforming. Byron Maxwell has always been overrated and he showed it in Philly. Tannehill will never be more than just ok. Meh.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (14-2) – If Roethlisberger holds up this team is monstrous on offense. Bell is a beast, Antonio Brown is unstoppable, and while the line isn’t great, it’s a lot better than it used to be. The defense is very un-Pittsburgh like so they’ll see their share of shootouts, but a combination of great passing game and running game should be enough to put them over the top.
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) – Dalton took some strides last season, but another one and done year for the Bengals. They are solid all around, with a few exceptional pieces like AJ Green. However, year in and year out they’re predicted to turn the corner, and it just never seems to happen. Why should this be the one?
Baltimore Ravens (8-8) – A horde of injuries led to a big let-down season or the Ravens. Flacco never lived up to his elite billing, but the rest of the offense is reasonable, if not flashy. The defense is certainly not the force it used to be, but Suggs coming back will give them a big boost. They’ll be better this season, but that’s not saying much.
Cleveland Browns (4-12) – I think RGIII got a bad deal in Washington and I think he’s an improvement here for the Browns. Unfortunately, the rest of the team is still terrible so that doesn’t matter.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) – Losing one of the top QBs in the league is enough to sink any season, but it wasn’t just bad…Luck…that got them there. The offensive line was horrendous and they paid the price. They’re trying to address it, but it still won’t be great, and the defense is still pretty bad. The return of Luck should boost them back to the top of a pretty bad division, but they won’t go much farther than that.
Houston Texans (8-8) – I perennially underrate the Texans, and this will be no exception. They have the best defensive player in the game, with solid talent around him, but the offense just doesn’t scare anyone. A stronger Colts team knocks them out of the playoffs.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) – Every year seems to be the Jags year that they’re finally going to turn it around, and every year is disappointing. Bortles and Hurns showed some good chemistry last year, they added several solid free agents, and the draft should bolster the defense. They’ll be better, and they’re young so the potential is there, but I don’t see them really turning the corner in 2016.
Tennessee Titans (4-12) – Adding DeMarco Murray helps this team. Sure, he underwhelmed in Philly, but that was as much Chip Kelly’s fault as his own. Even still, Mariota failed to impress, and the defense isn’t anything special. It’s possible the young offensive line comes together and helps them put together a decent enough offense, but I wouldn’t count on it.
AFC West
Denver Broncos (11-5) – The Broncos won the Super Bowl on the strength of the best defense in the AFC (and possibly the league), despite starting the aging mummy that was Peyton Manning. People seem worked up over their QB situation, but come on…last year wasn’t exactly stellar. As long as they can minimize the mistakes, as Peyton did, they’ll still be solid.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) – The Chiefs finished on a great run last season, the opposite of what a Reid team usually does…only to have his old nemesis, clock management, strike them down in the postseason. Alex Smith is always underrated, and they do have a strong defense, but I expect them to
Oakland Raiders (8-8) – Derek Carr looked great last year, and they played behind a surprisingly stout line. Similarly, the defense was better than expected last season, too. Still, the offensive weapons left something to be desired, and I’m not sure they’ll continue their upward trend this season.
San Diego Chargers (5-11) – Phillip Rivers can still play, but not quite at the level he used to…or it could just be the fact that the rest of this team was terrible, and doesn’t look a lot better this season.
average to somewhere between their poor start and strong finish.
Playoffs
Wild Card
Falcons @ Panthers
Cardinals @ Cowboys
Patriots @ Colts
Bengals @ Bills
Divisional Round
Cardinals @ Packers
Panthers @ Seahawks
Patriots @ Steelers
Bills @ Broncos
Championship Round
Seahawks @ Packers
Broncos @ Steelers
Super Bowl
Steelers vs Seahawks
A rematch of Super Bowl XL...unfortunately for the great Northwest, I don't see it ending much differently.
Previous years:
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL??
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (8-8) – Tony Romo is already out. Prescott already looks better than any of their backups last year, but he’s still a rookie. Elliott should provide a shot in the arm to the running game and take pressure off Prescott, but the defense wasn’t great last year and didn’t get better.
New York Giants (7-9) – A lot of flux in the Giants lately, but can they really come together? Eli Manning has looked worse and worse each year, but he’s still throwing to one of the best young receivers in the league, so they’ll move the ball through the air. Made moves to improve a woefully bad defense, but I don’t think it will be enough to turn the franchise around.
Washington Redskins (7-9) – Putting a lot of eggs in the Kirk Cousins basket. I don’t see it. Alfred Morris hasn’t looked great, but are they better without him? Josh Norman was a surprising and good pick for the defense, but I think he was a bit overrated. They won the division last year on the strength of it being a dumpster fire, which it still is, so they’ve got a shot…but I just don’t see Cousins taking them that far.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-10) – Trading Sam Bradford was an incredible future-looking move for the Eagles. They took advantage of a desperate Vikings team, but likely mortgaged their season in the process. Wentz might be good someday (if he doesn’t get locked in the bathroom), but a middling running game, weak receiving core, and blah defense won’t do much for Pederson’s first year.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers (12-4) – A lot of people, myself included, said the Packers would be fine no matter who was at WR as long as Rodgers was throwing the ball. Apparently that’s not true, he’s human after all. Assuming health is better than 2015, they should bounce back and win the division, especially given the QB situation in Minnesota.
Minnesota Vikings (8-8) – Oof. Bridgewater goes down, Bradford comes in, has to learn the offense in a week. Good luck. Peterson is still superhuman, but he’s getting older, he can’t keep doing this forever. They still have a strong running game, but the QB situation is going to drag them down.
Chicago Bears (6-10) – The receiving corps should make strides this year, but a bad offensive line, no running game, and the always inconsistent Jay Cutler is going to lead to a pretty slow offense. The defense isn’t bad up front, but it won’t be enough to carry the team.
Detroit Lions (5-11) – Calvin Johnson made this team a factor every game, you never knew when he was going to explode. He’s gone now and there’s not much else special left behind. They should struggle.
NFC South
Carolina Panthers (11-5) – Cam Newton exploded last year on his way to the MVP and the Super Bowl. I don’t think they’ll be as solid this year, not because I think they lost all that much (I already said I thought Norma was overrated), more because I think last year was a bit of overachieving. The division still isn’t great so they still have a good chance to win it, but I don’t see them repeating.
Atlanta Falcons (10-6) – Atlanta was a funny team last year, starting strong then fading fast, all the while being the only team to knock off the Panthers in the regular season. Freeman looked great and I expect the offense to be solid, the defense is young and not exactly top tier but I do expect some improvement as they come together.
New Orleans Saints (7-9) – Drew Brees is still Drew Brees, but the defense was just completely horrendous last year. Brees is getting older, the other offensive weapons aren’t anything to write home about, and the defense isn’t really better yet. The interior line should be solid but that’s about it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10) – Wintston looked great as a rookie QB, they can run the ball, but there isn’t a lot else to like about this team. The offensive line can’t protect the quarterback, which is never good for a young QB, and the defense isn’t going to stop many people.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) – Losing Lynch is going to hurt this team in more ways than one. A young, unproven corps of backs running behind a bad offensive line is going to make for busy days for Russell Wilson, who improved a lot last year. The defense isn’t as deep as it used to be, but they’re still the scariest set of starters in the league.
Arizona Cardinals (10-6) - A lot of people have the Cardinals in the Super Bowl this year. I just don’t see it. They’re still solid, Palmer can still play, the secondary is still great, but on the whole the team isn’t getting any younger – in fact their best offseason acquisition is 34. They’ll be good, but I see them stepping back, not forward.
LA Rams (5-11) – Goff and LA may be the future, but it won’t be 2016. Gurley is a stud, but the line is inexperienced and hasn’t lived up to its billing. The defense was solid last year, but lost a few players which won’t help, especially if they’re on the field more. They will struggle.
San Francisco 49ers (4-12) – The 49ers coaching carousel continues on to Chip Kelly. How the mighty have fallen. In just a few short years Kelly went from potentially revolutionizing the game with his high-pace offense to falling flat and being fired. I don’t think San Fran has the tools he needs to succeed.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (11-5) – The Bills were pleasantly surprising last year despite an off-season by LeSean McCoy. The offensive line is decent, the line is strong, Sammy Watkins is starting to live up to his billing, and Taylor exceeded expectations. Combined with the issues in New England, I see them taking the east.
New England Patriots (9-7) – Call me crazy but I see an off year for the Patriots. Brady’s suspension will hurt the start of the season, and they lost some solid players on defense. Sure, sure, the Patriots have been retooling and replacing players forever. It’s nothing new. I just see them coming down a notch this season.
New York Jets (8-8) – Overachieved last season, any team that’s holding their breath that Ryan Fitzpatrick will sign an extension can’t be taken too seriously, can it? Added Forte to the offense, but he’s not the force he used to be. Revis is back to anchor a decent defense, but in a stronger division, I don’t see them repeating last year’s success.
Miami Dolphins (5-11) – The defensive line sounds great but they’re all old and underperforming. Byron Maxwell has always been overrated and he showed it in Philly. Tannehill will never be more than just ok. Meh.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (14-2) – If Roethlisberger holds up this team is monstrous on offense. Bell is a beast, Antonio Brown is unstoppable, and while the line isn’t great, it’s a lot better than it used to be. The defense is very un-Pittsburgh like so they’ll see their share of shootouts, but a combination of great passing game and running game should be enough to put them over the top.
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) – Dalton took some strides last season, but another one and done year for the Bengals. They are solid all around, with a few exceptional pieces like AJ Green. However, year in and year out they’re predicted to turn the corner, and it just never seems to happen. Why should this be the one?
Baltimore Ravens (8-8) – A horde of injuries led to a big let-down season or the Ravens. Flacco never lived up to his elite billing, but the rest of the offense is reasonable, if not flashy. The defense is certainly not the force it used to be, but Suggs coming back will give them a big boost. They’ll be better this season, but that’s not saying much.
Cleveland Browns (4-12) – I think RGIII got a bad deal in Washington and I think he’s an improvement here for the Browns. Unfortunately, the rest of the team is still terrible so that doesn’t matter.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) – Losing one of the top QBs in the league is enough to sink any season, but it wasn’t just bad…Luck…that got them there. The offensive line was horrendous and they paid the price. They’re trying to address it, but it still won’t be great, and the defense is still pretty bad. The return of Luck should boost them back to the top of a pretty bad division, but they won’t go much farther than that.
Houston Texans (8-8) – I perennially underrate the Texans, and this will be no exception. They have the best defensive player in the game, with solid talent around him, but the offense just doesn’t scare anyone. A stronger Colts team knocks them out of the playoffs.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) – Every year seems to be the Jags year that they’re finally going to turn it around, and every year is disappointing. Bortles and Hurns showed some good chemistry last year, they added several solid free agents, and the draft should bolster the defense. They’ll be better, and they’re young so the potential is there, but I don’t see them really turning the corner in 2016.
Tennessee Titans (4-12) – Adding DeMarco Murray helps this team. Sure, he underwhelmed in Philly, but that was as much Chip Kelly’s fault as his own. Even still, Mariota failed to impress, and the defense isn’t anything special. It’s possible the young offensive line comes together and helps them put together a decent enough offense, but I wouldn’t count on it.
AFC West
Denver Broncos (11-5) – The Broncos won the Super Bowl on the strength of the best defense in the AFC (and possibly the league), despite starting the aging mummy that was Peyton Manning. People seem worked up over their QB situation, but come on…last year wasn’t exactly stellar. As long as they can minimize the mistakes, as Peyton did, they’ll still be solid.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) – The Chiefs finished on a great run last season, the opposite of what a Reid team usually does…only to have his old nemesis, clock management, strike them down in the postseason. Alex Smith is always underrated, and they do have a strong defense, but I expect them to
Oakland Raiders (8-8) – Derek Carr looked great last year, and they played behind a surprisingly stout line. Similarly, the defense was better than expected last season, too. Still, the offensive weapons left something to be desired, and I’m not sure they’ll continue their upward trend this season.
San Diego Chargers (5-11) – Phillip Rivers can still play, but not quite at the level he used to…or it could just be the fact that the rest of this team was terrible, and doesn’t look a lot better this season.
average to somewhere between their poor start and strong finish.
Playoffs
Wild Card
Falcons @ Panthers
Cardinals @ Cowboys
Patriots @ Colts
Bengals @ Bills
Divisional Round
Cardinals @ Packers
Panthers @ Seahawks
Patriots @ Steelers
Bills @ Broncos
Championship Round
Seahawks @ Packers
Broncos @ Steelers
Super Bowl
Steelers vs Seahawks
A rematch of Super Bowl XL...unfortunately for the great Northwest, I don't see it ending much differently.
Previous years:
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL??