Deeko's NFL Predictions

[BHeemsoth]

Please don't make picks again next year.

 

[Deeko]

Three years running now....every year the thread grows. Why would I stop now?

 

[WisMan]

I'm just glad you were so wrong about the packers!

Favre is still the man.

 

[SampSon]

Originally posted by: hdeck

Originally posted by: Deeko

Originally posted by: SampSon
Man your predictions suck. They are very similar to all preseason sports media I've read.
Must be just a coincidence, right? OOoooooor you're just another Jim Rome clone.

Go eagles! McNabb! His Knees!

Jime Rome gets paid a lot more money than I do to talk about sports, so I'll take that as a compliment.

pretty sure he was saying you just copy what the popular sports talking heads say and post them as your own original thoughts.

How dare you claim deeko is a mindless clone?!?!?!?!
The man is a professional sports savant! His predictions are nearly exactly the same as all professional analysts since late spring. These guys are totally ripping his content. It's shameful! It's like spygate round two!

 

[Alistar7]

Originally posted by: thepd7

Originally posted by: Alistar7

Glad you enjoyed the discussion thepd7, but I am done in this thread.

lol I was talking about him owning you. He keeps admitting he made a mistake and providing reasonable explanations for his predictions (again, all while admitting he was wrong) and you keep kissing ROFLsbergers butt like it's JAlba.

Originally posted by: Deeko

ps thepd7, you broke my heart.

I am far too in love with gender confused fratboys to do that to you.

Call me out I will come back, just this once though

Deeko owns nothing, certainly not me. His predictions provide valuable insight into his football knowledge. I can hear the same crap watching the pundits on ESPN. Reasonable explanations, after the fact no less, can't back up an inherently flawed and self contradictory opinion. His prediction was based off his opinion, an opinion that contradicts reality.

He also thinks pass attempts per game have far more to do with QB rating than completion %(accuracy), or TD/Int ratio. I guess that is more proof of his"ownage" thepd7, bahahaha, the only thing funnier than Deeko is you thinking he owns. Odd, I didn't think attempts per game were even part of QB rating:

http://www.docsports.com/2006/...uarterback-rating.html

The passer rating is the combination of four different categories of statistics - completion percentage, average yards per passing attempt, the ratio of touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt.

You took into account his successful, but generally small, contributions during his first two seasons, yet apparently forgot about these major accomplishments:

AFC Wild Card Game 1/8 at Cincinnati: 148.7 passer-rating.
AFC Divisional Game 1/15 at Indianapolis: 95.3 passer-rating.
AFC Championship Game 1/22 at Denver: 124.9 passer-rating.

All games on the road no less. Those games answered the question of "can he do more than manage a game". All you used for your opinion based prediction was his performance in the SB and those after a near fatal accident, which was short sighted on your part.

I could give examples of other QB's who had displayed a similar loss of production after an injury, where previously they had shown all pro ability, but they would be well before your time. Again, your lack of long term perspective on the game fails you. I don't know all, but I am willing to bet I have forgotten more about the game than you will ever know.

Seattle fans still crying about the refs, boo hoo. There were bad calls that hurt both teams in that game, good teams find a way to win in spite of those events. Did the refs let Willy Parker score on the longest run in SB history? Did the refs somehow intervene and give Ike Taylor an int. when the Hawks were driving to score? Outplayed Pitt in every phase of the game, what a joke. Check the rushing yards, the 3rd down conversion rate, and the final score.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=260205023

It was over when ...
Ben Roethlisberger picked up a big first down on third-and-3 from the Pittsburgh 38 with just under four minutes to go. The Steelers were able to run another two minutes off the clock, all but sealing the win.

Ben did make some huge plays in that game, they would not have won if he had not. He made some mistakes, but none that cost them the game.

The biggest play of the first half was a ludicrous third-and-28 at the Seattle 40. Common sense dictated a safe 10-yard play that would bring the Steelers into comfortable field goal range. When Roethlisberger was flushed out of the pocket, he seemed on the verge of scrambling that distance but pulled up just inches short of the line of scrimmage, as though it were an invisible canine fence, ran sideways and spotted Ward streaking downfield. Roethlisberger heaved it across the field, and Ward beat Boulware to the ball. It was a 37-yard play, all the way down to the 3-yard line.

After two handoffs to Bettis left Pittsburgh 1 yard short, Roethlisberger, rolling left, faked a pitch to Bettis but kept the ball himself. He cut back toward the middle and leaped toward the end zone, where he was met by linebacker D.D. Lewis. The play was ruled a touchdown, and replays suggested the ball had penetrated the plane of the goal line before Lewis knocked Roethlisberger back. With 1:55 left in the half, the Steelers had their first lead, 7-3.

 

[Deeko]

I knew you couldn't stay away.

You seem to think QB Rating is a perfect stat, even though most former coaches/GMs say they don't use it when evaluating a QB, and you ignore that your savior had a 22 FOR THE SUPERBOWL! That's not just bad, that's terrible. If you throw 0 completions, I believe you have around a 39! Great, he threw one good pass the entire game...compared to what, 20 bad ones?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c...ting.system/index.html

I never said passing attempts determine if a QB is worthy or not, you're pulling that out of either your ass, or your masterful 30+ years of football experience, which somehow determines what I'm really thinking. Regardless, if a QB is running an offense that runs the ball the good majority of the time, and he only throws the ball 20 times per game, not only are there less chances for error, the defense isn't keying on the pass nearly as much. It also doesn't really test if the QB is able to take the team on his shoulders and sling the ball downfield to win the game. Can you do that in a run-first offense? Of course! But how often did Roethlisberger do it early in his career?

 

[Alistar7]

Originally posted by: Deeko
I knew you couldn't stay away.

You seem to think QB Rating is a perfect stat, even though most former coaches/GMs say they don't use it when evaluating a QB, and you ignore that your savior had a 22 FOR THE SUPERBOWL! That's not just bad, that's terrible. If you throw 0 completions, I believe you have around a 39! Great, he threw one good pass the entire game...compared to what, 20 bad ones?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c...ting.system/index.html

I never said passing attempts determine if a QB is worthy or not, you're pulling that out of either your ass, or your masterful 30+ years of football experience, which somehow determines what I'm really thinking. Regardless, if a QB is running an offense that runs the ball the good majority of the time, and he only throws the ball 20 times per game, not only are there less chances for error, the defense isn't keying on the pass nearly as much. *It also doesn't really test if the QB is able to take the team on his shoulders and sling the ball downfield to win the game. Can you do that in a run-first offense? Of course! But how often did Roethlisberger do it early in his career?

Hard to back pedal or are you used to it by now? You said less passing attempts, or a shorter passing game (west coast offense) equate to an easier time achieving a high QB rating, both false. Shorter passing game helps in one area, hurts in another. It should lead to better accuracy, but kills your yards per completion. Did you actually get the chance to watch Steve Young or Joe Montana play?

* Again, Ben faced that challenge early in his career in his 2nd postseason, and excelled. You seem to have completely forgotten what he demonstrated he could do when deciding he was "amazingly overrated". He did it a handfull of times in his first two seasons, but none more notable than those 3 road playoff games. QB rating is far from perfect, but it is a good barometer.

You seem to forget protection is also vital for a QB to have success. Ben has not had good protection the past two seasons, even though this year he is doing quite well despite the breakdowns. Pitts line is great for running, piss poor for pass protection. He is not my savior, he is just the QB for Pitt. I am basing my arguement solely on his proven performance, not my personal opinion.

Yes, overall he had a piss poor superbowl throwing the ball, but he did score on the ground and made clutch throws at key moments to help win the game.

Romo would have had more experience in the NFL if he wins the SB this year. Romo also had the luxury of time on the bench/practice field before he was thrust into a starting role. Bens rookie season he got basically no reps with the first team, he was tossed into the fire due to injury, completely different scenario. This is pointless, you are entitled to your opinion however illogical it may be, good day.

 

[Deeko]

What? I didn't backpedal anywhere, nor do I revoke my statement that its easier to have a higher rating if you aren't in a pass-first, high attempt system. Yes, 30+ year grandmaster, I did see Steve Young play plenty in his prime, and while I was about 5 when Montana played, I have seen clips and replays of his superbowls. The ONLY thing a west coast system hurts your rating in is YPA, but it helps completion % and lowers int %, and overall is more conducive to a higher rating. I'm not making that up, its pretty well accepted. Also, like I said before, its not to detract from Steve Young. He was a great QB, but according to his QB rating, he's the greatest of all time, and I can't say I've found anyone that agrees with that.

You're still completely sidestepping the issue here. I never denied, and in fact explicitely state that Roethlisberger DID do some good things early in his career, thus allowing reason to believe he was worthy of the hype. Yes, he played well in the playoffs (*until the superbowl, the game that matters most of all) However, my main point here, which you for some inexplicable reason are unable to accept, is that there WERE downsides that could cause LEGITIMATE criticism to whether or not he is an elite QB. This really is a stupid argument since I've already said several times that it seems I was wrong in my assessment, we've now been arguing for two days on whether or not it was 'ok' to think that in the first place. Good show, Alistar, good show.

And again, I never denied that protection is important, but as you yourself said - he holds the ball too long, which you can't do when protection is breaking down. Drew Bledsoe didn't always have the best protection either, and if you put him on a team with a stellar offensive line, he was one of the best QBs in the league....yet, he was replaced three times by a young, unproven QB, on three different teams. Just sayin'. You can't blame ALL of your problems on protection, just ask David Carr.

So once again the aged grandmaster claims he is taking his leave of this argument....wanna take bets on if he can stick to it this time?

 

[Alistar7]

Originally posted by: Deeko
What? I didn't backpedal anywhere, nor do I revoke my statement that its easier to have a higher rating if you aren't in a pass-first, high attempt system. Yes, 30+ year grandmaster, I did see Steve Young play plenty in his prime, and while I was about 5 when Montana played, I have seen clips and replays of his superbowls. The ONLY thing a west coast system hurts your rating in is YPA, but it helps completion % and lowers int %, and overall is more conducive to a higher rating. I'm not making that up, its pretty well accepted. Also, like I said before, its not to detract from Steve Young. He was a great QB, but according to his QB rating, he's the greatest of all time, and I can't say I've found anyone that agrees with that.

You're still completely sidestepping the issue here. I never denied, and in fact explicitely state that Roethlisberger DID do some good things early in his career, thus allowing reason to believe he was worthy of the hype. Yes, he played well in the playoffs (*until the superbowl, the game that matters most of all) However, my main point here, which you for some inexplicable reason are unable to accept, is that there WERE downsides that could cause LEGITIMATE criticism to whether or not he is an elite QB. This really is a stupid argument since I've already said several times that it seems I was wrong in my assessment, we've now been arguing for two days on whether or not it was 'ok' to think that in the first place. Good show, Alistar, good show.

And again, I never denied that protection is important, but as you yourself said - he holds the ball too long, which you can't do when protection is breaking down. Drew Bledsoe didn't always have the best protection either, and if you put him on a team with a stellar offensive line, he was one of the best QBs in the league....yet, he was replaced three times by a young, unproven QB, on three different teams. Just sayin'. You can't blame ALL of your problems on protection, just ask David Carr.

So once again the aged grandmaster claims he is taking his leave of this argument....wanna take bets on if he can stick to it this time?

The only downsides were due to his accident. You don't forget proven performance when evaluating a player on an overall basis, as you did. As far as the team, the defense is essentially the same, 3 starters are different, how are they performing?

Wanna bet you can't help but try to get the last word in, and therefore call me back. You said it was easier to get a high QB throwing less, when attempts have nothing to do with rating. Again, you were flat out wrong about something that should be common knowledge for anyone who claims to know so much about the game, good show, almost as good as your "informed" predictions.

 

[Deeko]

Of course I'll reply back, this is the thread on my NFL predictions, that probably isn't dying right now, regardless of how our argument goes. I can point out how ridiculous the discussion is all I want, but that doesn't mean I have a problem with extending it. Makes the day go by.

How is the Steelers' defense performing? I dunno, pretty well I'd say since they're first in every statistical category. So? Are you back to defending the 2005 Steelers? I never denied that they had a good defense, did I? No, I just said they shouldn't have won the Superbowl, just like the shouldn't this year, despite still having a punishing defense.

I dare you - since ya know, I'm a little kid compared to your 30+ years of experience - to go up and find where I said attempts were a part of the QB rating formula. They aren't. I never said it. However, I said that in a system where you throw less, it is easier to have a higher rating. If you're in a run-first system that only requires you to throw 20 times a game, 1) the defense isn't keying on the pass. Do you think that doesn't make a difference? It makes a huge difference, and you're ignoring it and 2) if your system relies heavily on the running game and defense, the quarterback can indeed be more of a "game manager", resulting in safer throws - and a higher completion % with less INTs. I already explained that, but you keep repeating that I think attempts are a part of the QB Rating formula. Are you satisifed now?

And no, see, you're still doing it. You're refusing to admit there was any reason to doubt Roethlisberger coming into this season, when there WERE! Did you see him in the Superbowl? Oh, its one game, it doesn't matter...Its the Superbowl! It matters more than anything! And yes, he had injuries, and surgeries, and all of that leading into 2006 - LOTS of quarterbacks have serious injuries and come back to play great the next year. Carson Palmer? Donovan McNabb (ok not so much this year, but he's been hurt plenty of times before)? Those are some recent examples for you, I know with 30+ years of football knowledge it might be hard to fit new stuff in there.

You can say its "common knowledge" that Ben Roethlisberger is a superstar all you want, and because I disagreed, all of my predictions are worthless. Fine, change your defense from "you're a cowboys fan lolz you hate the steelers!!1!" to "wow you no nothing about footbal if u didnt think ben roethlsiberger was tha best!". Its amazing how the argument of such a veteran as yourself can be reduced to 13 year old AIM-speak.

 

[rise]

if you two are arguing over romo/roflsburger, they're both good qb's with a ways to go to become anything other than a footnote in nfl history. i'd prolly take romo ofer roflsberger.

deeeko should stop pointing out bens terrible qb rating in his biggest game seeing as romo single handedly blew his biggest game.

 

[ThePresence]

This thread delivers.

 

[Deeko]

The discussion isn't really about Romo vs Roethlisberger, that was just a quick point of comparison. I love Romo but I'll be the first to admit he'll be "just another good QB", kinda like Danny White. The discussion is over (yes, really) whether or not it was justifiable to have doubts that Roethlisberger was an elite QB prior to this season.

We all know that neither of them can measure up to Terrific Tom, don't worry.

edit: It only just occurred to me now that its amusing that I brought up the Carson Palmer injury. If it weren't for that injury, in the playoff game, its very possible that the Steelers never even made it to the Superbowl. Doesn't really play a role in the discussion, I just thought that was funny that it came into the argument.

 

[Alistar7]

Originally posted by: Deeko
Yes, he's been a better game manager than Dilfer was, never doubted that. As ThePresence pointed out, he was TERRIBLE in the Superbowl. A win is a win, but it was hardly thanks to your pal Ben. Plus, look farther than QB rating - its much easier to have a high QB rating if you only throw 25 times a game, compared to say, a Peyton Manning. Just like Steve Young has such a high career rating cuz he played a rating-friendly west coast offense (note: I don't mean to detract from Young, but according to his rating, he's the greatest QB to ever play the game). This is the first season Roethlisberger has thrown more than 20 TDs. In his rookie season, he only threw more than 25 times twice. In his second season, three times. Only ONE of those games (second season playoff win vs Denver) was his QB rating higher than his season average, which lends itself to the theory that he is not efficient in that role.

Like I said, he looks much better this season, but you have to be severely biased to not at least understand, even if you disagree, why people were skeptical of his ability to be more than a game manager-quarterback before this year.

Did you come out and say it was part of the formula, no, you implied it though. Attempts have no bearing on rating, it is not easier to have a higher rating just by throwing less. The parameters stay the same no matter how many times you throw the ball.

The seconed part in bold was yet another incorrect post on your part, even though the numbers were already posted. The Denver postseason game was the only one lower than his season rating, the other two were significantly higher. Even when provided with the facts, you still cannot draw an accurate conclusion. The numbers actually lend themselves to the theory that he is quite efficient in that role, which is why the doubters position was untennable.

I know there were other doubters, you mimick their arguement decently, but it was flawed from the start. I never said he was a superstar, or that it was common knowledge he was considered in that regard.

Lots of quaterbacks have had near fatal accidents? Almost dying is not the same as spraining a ligament.

Without an injury to Bledsoe, Brady might not have ever stepped on the field. Without the "tuck rule" BS call, they wouldn't have made it to the SB that year. You think if Palmer played that whole game Pitt wouldn't have won? Here was Ben's rating for the game: AFC Wild Card Game 1/8 at Cincinnati: 148.7 passer-rating. It would have taken the best game of Palmer's career to win that game. Bengals have never been much of a match for Pitt anyway, the trend would have been continued most likely.

Rise - I will take a SB winner over someone who has not proven anything in the postseason. I agree both need to maintain their numbers for at least 7-8 more years before they are considered elite in an all time perspective, or at least win a championship(s). If Brady retired today he would be a first ballot lock for the HOF, if only judged by his 3 titles.

Deeko wins, even when the facts don't support his arguement he is still right. He is the master of all that is pro football, I bow to his greatness.

 

[Deeko]

You don't read very well, do you? I've already explained to you what I meant by the first bolded part. I didn't backtrack, I didn't change it, I didn't revoke it, I just spelled it out in more detail. Also no...I said in games he threw more than 25 times, his rating was lower in all but one. The Denver game is the game where he threw for more than 25 attempts, and had a higher rating than his season average. You even bolded that I said that. Are you trying to prove my point for me? In the other 2 playoff games in 2005, he didn't throw 25 times. He played well and had good ratings, but I was referring to games where he threw more than 25 times, not playoff games...I don't think those two things are one and the same, do you?

You don't have to have a near-fatal accident to hurt your performance on the football field. Breaking your jaw, losing some teeth, and bleeding a lot might bring you closer to death, but does it affect your football game as much as tearing an ACL and MCL? I'd say no.

The Bengals split with Pittsburgh in 2005, so yes, its very possible they would have won had he played...he DID get injured while throwing a completed bomb down the field. I'm not saying they WOULD have, but it certainly doesn't help to lose your superstar QB on his first pass of a playoff game.

 

[buck]

Cat fight!

 

[Alistar7]

Attempts per game are an important part of QB rating, Aanything you say master......

 

[Deeko]

I'd hate to disagree with your 30+ years of football knowledge, but when all you've got is quoting the same thing over and over.....

 

[thepd7]

Originally posted by: Alistar7
Attempts per game are an important part of QB rating, Aanything you say master......

Have you ever heard of a little something called "play action." Well, let me explain it to you since apparantly in your 30 years you haven't caught on.

When you run the ball well, you run the ball a lot.

Now here's where it gets tricky so stay with me:

When you run the ball a lot, teams expect you to run the ball.

Okay it gets REALLY crazy here so CONCENTRATE!!!

When teams expect you to run the ball, and you FAKE a run, it makes it easier to complete passes (especially long passes due to 1 on 1 coverage but that's a topic for another day).


So when your team (ie the Steelers) has a great run game, the QB passes less. And when he does, he has a higher chance of completing passes and scoring.

Now, I haven't checked but I do think that completion percentage and touchdowns are including in QB rating. I am sure you will let me know if I am wrong.


Let me know if I need to slow it down some more, I wrote it for 2nd grade level but I can go to pre-K if need be.

Also, weren't you finished with this thread 2 times already?

 

[Alistar7]

lol at thepd7, so much knowledge it overwhelms the senses


I stumbled across the most unusual object today. I was hoping someone here might be able to help identify:

Text

 

[Deeko]

I think they call that a "hockey puck", I dunno, I don't watch those weird Canadian sports.

 

[thepd7]

Originally posted by: Alistar7
lol at thepd7, so much knowledge it overwhelms the senses


I stumbled across the most unusual object today. I was hoping someone here might be able to help identify:

Text

That's exactly how I would respond if I didn't have any rebuttal as well, good choice.

 

[Alistar7]

Originally posted by: thepd7

Originally posted by: Alistar7
lol at thepd7, so much knowledge it overwhelms the senses


I stumbled across the most unusual object today. I was hoping someone here might be able to help identify:

Text

That's exactly how I would respond if I didn't have any rebuttal as well, good choice.

Sorry but your condescending, and flawed, post was not worthy of a legitimate response, but I'll answer it anyway. You honestly think I don't understand how play action works, or how it affects the passing game and defense lol. I do love a good play fake though. Never seen anyone run one better than Boomer, he was the king of the play fake.

So when your team (ie the Steelers) has a great run game, the QB passes less. And when he does, he has a higher chance of completing passes and scoring.

The less you pass, the greater your odds at accuracy and throwing a TD, fail. You seem so proud of your "in depth breakdown" of how the play fake works in theory though, so here's a [deleted]

The defense does not always buy the play fake. Pitt throws more out of spread formations in their offense, the play fake is not employed nearly as much as you believe. The majority of Bens TD's this year have come out of obvious passing sets.

Personal opinion of ROFLsberger, a bit selfish for my taste. Even as a fan of his team I was happy to see him finally have an offseason last year, he needed to be knocked down a peg IMHO. After the SB it was said the only person more upset than the Seahawks in the locker rooms was Ben, he was completely distraught over his performance. That pissed me off, yeah he had a bad game but they won, team first moron. I have talked to a few people who met him in a personal setting, all got the same somewhat negative impression of a cocky jock.

I must admit I don't listen or buy into the hype over any player. 24/7 coverage of the NFL anymore, they need something to fill the time. I have seen it far too many times, and then watched the player fall flat on their face. Think of the myriad of high draft picks who turned out to be busts. I go by what I see on the field & stats.

 

[hdeck]

ok enough essays. time to talk about how roy williams is going to beat the packers by himself and use their tattered remains to stuff his thanksgiving turkey.

 

[thepd7]

Originally posted by: Alistar7

Originally posted by: thepd7

Originally posted by: Alistar7
lol at thepd7, so much knowledge it overwhelms the senses


I stumbled across the most unusual object today. I was hoping someone here might be able to help identify:

Text

That's exactly how I would respond if I didn't have any rebuttal as well, good choice.

Sorry but your condescending, and flawed, post was not worthy of a legitimate response, but I'll answer it anyway. You honestly think I don't understand how play action works, or how it affects the passing game and defense lol. I do love a good play fake though. Never seen anyone run one better than Boomer, he was the king of the play fake.

So when your team (ie the Steelers) has a great run game, the QB passes less. And when he does, he has a higher chance of completing passes and scoring.

The less you pass, the greater your odds at accuracy and throwing a TD, fail. You seem so proud of your "in depth breakdown" of how the play fake works in theory though, so here's a [deleted]

The defense does not always buy the play fake. Pitt throws more out of spread formations in their offense, the play fake is not employed nearly as much as you believe. The majority of Bens TD's this year have come out of obvious passing sets.

Personal opinion of ROFLsberger, a bit selfish for my taste. Even as a fan of his team I was happy to see him finally have an offseason last year, he needed to be knocked down a peg IMHO. After the SB it was said the only person more upset than the Seahawks in the locker rooms was Ben, he was completely distraught over his performance. That pissed me off, yeah he had a bad game but they won, team first moron. I have talked to a few people who met him in a personal setting, all got the same somewhat negative impression of a cocky jock.

I must admit I don't listen or buy into the hype over any player. 24/7 coverage of the NFL anymore, they need something to fill the time. I have seen it far too many times, and then watched the player fall flat on their face. Think of the myriad of high draft picks who turned out to be busts. I go by what I see on the field & stats.

It's not about the less you pass, I never said that blanket statement. It's about what teams are expecting, and when a team is expecting you to run and you play action pass you are going to have a higher completion percentage and more long plays since receivers will be 1 on 1 more often.

If you still don't get it I guess I will have to take it down a couple more notches to pre-K level.

And once again, weren't you done with this thread twice already?