Defeated, the Iranian Reformists have Given Up

[blackangst1]

I signed up for twitter just to see the updates...amazing what mainstream media isnt showing. Whole shit ton of pics and videos.

The people. Are. Pissed. Here's an example: http://i40.tinypic.com/2dturfo.jpg

 

[cyclohexane]

Originally posted by: blackangst1
I signed up for twitter just to see the updates...amazing what mainstream media isnt showing. Whole shit ton of pics and videos.

The people. Are. Pissed. Here's an example: http://i40.tinypic.com/2dturfo.jpg

holy shit!

 

[tvarad]

Originally posted by: Sacrilege
My post may be slightly parody, but I think the protests could easily be quelled, bottled up for a few more years at least. We have seen the "revolutions" in recent years in countries around the world.... "orange", "pink", "purple", "crimson", etc. Many were in nations which are free-er than Iran. But don't forget the "saffron revolution" in Burma which has completely been bottled up. Granted, Burma may be more closed and authoritarian than Iran, but all we have seen so far in Iran are fights between some cops, militia thugs, and protesters. There are still two armies which could be deployed against the protesters. The regular army may be reluctant, but if the Revolutionary Guard thinks their power or future is in jeopardy, you can be sure they'll fight for real.

My point is, it takes a lot more than throwing rocks and burning motorcycles to change a regime that wields absolute power. And if the clerics feel threatened, I predict they will crack down. Survival is a very strong instinct, and those in all-powerful positions like to hold onto their power at all costs.

I have had a number of Iranian colleagues/friends (as I'm sure, many others) and they have come across as a very passionate people about politics compared to, say the Chinese. Somehow, I don't think a Tianenmen style crackdown is going to work. This is not a student led uprising, many people in the ruling hierarchy are involved and the issue is about an alleged electoral fraud.

At the very least, it has considerably weakened the mullahs' hold on power and exposed them as fallible; something unthinkable even a few years ago.

 

[tvarad]

Thought I'd cut and paste a lovely riposte from BBC's "Have your say" on the subject:

"What can Iran protests achieve?"

Hopefully no more mullah heads of state or "religious" or "religion-based" leadership anywhere in the Islamic world.

Religion should be a personal matter between oneself & one's Maker; politics a public matter between oneself & other people; & freedom a right for all.

Our so called religious leaders have made a mockery of our religion, & their sheep have poisoned our relationships within & without.

Time to forsake the long night & greet the dawn.

Muhammad Zaman

 

[SickBeast]

Originally posted by: nullzero
I don't know what your talking about. It seems the protesting and coup against the Iranian government has just started. Wait for stage two... when sporadic groups of armed protesters start firing back.

Do you think that the US would get involved in terms of arming a militia?

 

[nullzero]

Originally posted by: SickBeast

Originally posted by: nullzero
I don't know what your talking about. It seems the protesting and coup against the Iranian government has just started. Wait for stage two... when sporadic groups of armed protesters start firing back.

Do you think that the US would get involved in terms of arming a militia?

I think there is no question the U.S. would try to siphon arms from Afghan or Iraqi army units. Have an inside person that is either Iraqi or Afghan doing the face to face arrangements with Iranian protesting groups.

 

[ProfJohn]

We should take all those Iranian weapons we seized in Iraq and return them to Iran via the protesters.

If only such a thing was possible

 

[Paddington]

Jesus H. Christ. These are the stupidest ideas I've ever heard. America's already in 2 wars in the Middle East. Getting involved in Iran in anyway will be America's grave yard. The situation needs to cool down. American politicians need to STFU and stay out of another country's affairs, as if they didn't already learn this lesson.

 

[SickBeast]

What does the "H" stand for?

 

[Paddington]

Henry, of course. A very popular middle Eastern name circa 0 AD.

 

[nullzero]

Originally posted by: Paddington
Jesus H. Christ. These are the stupidest ideas I've ever heard. America's already in 2 wars in the Middle East. Getting involved in Iran in anyway will be America's grave yard. The situation needs to cool down. American politicians need to STFU and stay out of another country's affairs, as if they didn't already learn this lesson.

Unfortunately I think we will not stay out of it. The high ranking military leadership is looking at this as a once in a life time chance to have regime change in Iran.

 

[Paddington]

As if we didn't learn from the regime change mistake in Iraq.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: Paddington
As if we didn't learn from the regime change mistake in Iraq.

I'm thinking we did learn. We didn't put the same kind of people back in power here.

At this moment I'd wager that all sorts of scenarios of what can happen in Iran are being explored, and that's as it should be. One of the things that will probably rejected is doing anything that can be materially traced back as being of US origin. If we get caught providing aid, or even approaching people in Iraq about overthrowing the current government the situation will suddenly work in the hard liners favor. Listening to the rhetoric from them, I'd say they are desperately hoping well do just that. They'd turn it around and say we are once again manipulating the Iranian public, and given our track record will probably get away with it.

Now if civil war broke out so that the military fought the Republican Guards, then we might offer access to satellite images or other intel, but that would be about it.

There is no way we will get caught with our fingers in the cookie jar. We're not going near it.

 

[seemingly random]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
We should take all those Iranian weapons we seized in Iraq and return them to Iran via the protesters.

If only such a thing was possible

We could insert some christian pamphlets with each weapon. This would send the message about what christians are all about.

 

[seemingly random]

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider

Originally posted by: Paddington
As if we didn't learn from the regime change mistake in Iraq.

I'm thinking we did learn. We didn't put the same kind of people back in power here.

At this moment I'd wager that all sorts of scenarios of what can happen in Iran are being explored, and that's as it should be. One of the things that will probably rejected is doing anything that can be materially traced back as being of US origin. If we get caught providing aid, or even approaching people in Iraq about overthrowing the current government the situation will suddenly work in the hard liners favor. Listening to the rhetoric from them, I'd say they are desperately hoping well do just that. They'd turn it around and say we are once again manipulating the Iranian public, and given our track record will probably get away with it.

Now if civil war broke out so that the military fought the Republican Guards, then we might offer access to satellite images or other intel, but that would be about it.

There is no way we will get caught with our fingers in the cookie jar. We're not going near it.

Would that be iranian or american hard liners? Unfortunately, they seem interchangeable to me.

I think you're definitely correct that we should be gaming as many scenarios as possible. One of the dimensions that hasn't been broached in these threads is the possibility of other regimes wanting a piece of iran. The u.s. is not the only ones capable of much chicanery.

 

[guyver01]

Originally posted by: Sacrilege
In November 2012, Sarah Palin will become America's first female president,

wow seriously dude... what crack are you smoking? someone musta spiked it with fairy dust, because it just took you on a magical trip to never never land

 

[themusgrat]

Agreed, I'm conservative, and I'd rather see almost anyone else President than Palin. I had a problem with Obama because of his actual experience, but Palin would serve no other useful purpose other than to make Obama look like a God among Presidents, she's really not who the Republicans want running next term.

 

[Siddhartha]

Originally posted by: Sacrilege
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl...iran-protest-crackdown

Tonight, sporadic gunfire was heard in northern parts of Tehran, yet there was no repeat of the mass protests that have brought hundreds of thousands to the streets of the capital over the last week.

Meanwhile, the regime was turning its attention to more distant adversaries, with Ahmadinejad blaming the US, as well as Britain, for the crisis.

Business as usual it seems. The street protesters will fade back into Iranian society, grow older and more conservative, and never speak about their youthful rebellion.

Israel will strike the Iranian nuclear facilities, uniting Iranians against the Jewish state and strengthening support for Ahmadinejad and the clerical leadership.

Obama's overtures at peace will not work, and he will be a one term president due to ineffective foreign policies, massive budget deficits, and failed domestic initiatives (stimulus, health care).

In November 2012, Sarah Palin will become America's first female president, and in her state of the union address that spring, demonize Iran by reiterating it as part of the New Axis of Evil (Along with North Korea and a randomly selected Muslin nation, perhaps Pakistan, or maybe Burma).

Palin's words and harder line on Iranian interests will solidify support for conservatives in Iran and in their June 2012 elections they will choose a conservative to replace Ahmadinejad.

If 60% of Iranians had guns would there be a revolution? I think there would be a lot more people getting shot but I doubt anything else would happen.

Israel bombing Iran? Why didn't it happen while GWB was in power?

If the economy does not turn around by July 2011, Mr Obama will be in political trouble.

If the economy is in bad shape by July 2011, Ms Palin could have a chance. The republicans like candidates like Ms Palin. She reminds me of Mr George W Bush and Mr Reagan. Whose personas were\are average plain speaking individuals who fronted the values of the GOP base.

 

[TruePaige]

Originally posted by: Siddhartha

Originally posted by: Sacrilege
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl...iran-protest-crackdown

Tonight, sporadic gunfire was heard in northern parts of Tehran, yet there was no repeat of the mass protests that have brought hundreds of thousands to the streets of the capital over the last week.

Meanwhile, the regime was turning its attention to more distant adversaries, with Ahmadinejad blaming the US, as well as Britain, for the crisis.

Business as usual it seems. The street protesters will fade back into Iranian society, grow older and more conservative, and never speak about their youthful rebellion.

Israel will strike the Iranian nuclear facilities, uniting Iranians against the Jewish state and strengthening support for Ahmadinejad and the clerical leadership.

Obama's overtures at peace will not work, and he will be a one term president due to ineffective foreign policies, massive budget deficits, and failed domestic initiatives (stimulus, health care).

In November 2012, Sarah Palin will become America's first female president, and in her state of the union address that spring, demonize Iran by reiterating it as part of the New Axis of Evil (Along with North Korea and a randomly selected Muslin nation, perhaps Pakistan, or maybe Burma).

Palin's words and harder line on Iranian interests will solidify support for conservatives in Iran and in their June 2012 elections they will choose a conservative to replace Ahmadinejad.

If 60% of Iranians had guns would there be a revolution? I think there would be a lot more people getting shot but I doubt anything else would happen.

Israel bombing Iran? Why didn't it happen while GWB was in power?

If the economy does not turn around by July 2011, Mr Obama will be in political trouble.

If the economy is in bad shape by July 2011, Ms Palin could have a chance. The republicans like candidates like Ms Palin. She reminds me of Mr George W Bush. Whose IQ's were\are below-average plain speaking individuals who fronted the values of the GOP base.

Fixed.

 

[Lemon law]

First, please keep Palin out of threads on Iran.

Second, from the links I am reading, its clear the revolutionary guard will crack down on street demonstration, but (a) I see no evidence the protests are going away. (b) This ignores the fact that protests can take many other forms rather than just street marches. Things like work strikes and the like, even wearing a given color clothes, singing given songs, are all ways of keeping the pressure on an increasingly cartoonist looking establishment. In terms of internal nationalistic movements, Universities have been a hot bed of activism for two centuries or more.

But today, even the Mullahs have revealed that there was widespread vote fraud in over 50 cities with the 6/12/09 vote. My guess, Iran is going to end up re voting as the only way to defuse the internal crisis.

 

[Vic]

Uhh... Ahmadinejad is a conservative.

OP is epic fail.

 

[eleison]

Originally posted by: Vic
Uhh... Ahmadinejad is a conservative.

OP is epic fail.

I thought conservative meant smaller governments, less taxes, and less regulations. Basically, the smaller government, the better. Let free market reign, etc.. Ahmadinejad looks like the type that would like to tell you how to dress, how to eat and how to pray. Allah forbid, if you had a business, what your business cannot do, and what your business can...

In that regard, its seems like Ahmadinejad is more like a california liberal... regulation, after regulation... telling you when you can and can not smoke, drink, etc...

 

[MotF Bane]

Originally posted by: eleison

Originally posted by: Vic
Uhh... Ahmadinejad is a conservative.

OP is epic fail.

I thought conservative meant smaller governments, less taxes, and less regulations. Basically, the smaller government, the better. Let free market reign, etc.. Ahmadinejad looks like the type that would like to tell you how to dress, how to eat and how to pray. Allah forbid, if you had a business, what your business cannot do, and what your business can...

In that regard, its seems like Ahmadinejad is more like a california liberal... regulation, after regulation... telling you when you can and can not smoke, drink, etc...

That's the original definition of a liberal.

 

[eleison]

Originally posted by: MotF Bane

Originally posted by: eleison

Originally posted by: Vic
Uhh... Ahmadinejad is a conservative.

OP is epic fail.

I thought conservative meant smaller governments, less taxes, and less regulations. Basically, the smaller government, the better. Let free market reign, etc.. Ahmadinejad looks like the type that would like to tell you how to dress, how to eat and how to pray. Allah forbid, if you had a business, what your business cannot do, and what your business can...

In that regard, its seems like Ahmadinejad is more like a california liberal... regulation, after regulation... telling you when you can and can not smoke, drink, etc...

That's the original definition of a liberal.

Whats the new definition of a liberal then?

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: TruePaige

If the economy is in bad shape by July 2011, Ms Palin could have a chance. The republicans like candidates like Ms Palin. She reminds me of Mr George W Bush. Whose IQ's were\are below-average plain speaking individuals who fronted the values of the GOP base.

Fixed.

Bush has a BA from Yale and an MBA from Harvard plus he was a jet fighter pilot... I am sure he got all those things why having a below average IQ :roll:


What is even better is that Bush and Kerry were both officers at the same time and based on studies of their test scores 'experts' surmise that Bush has a higher IQ than Kerry due to him scoring higher than Kerry...