Originally posted by: Krk3561
If you understood policy lags then maybe you would understand the points.
Wow a personal attack on my education. That is helpful in a discussion.
The president has impacts on the economy in multiple time frames.
1) Negative time span. A president can have a mild impact before taking office. This impact can be seen with big jumps in numbers right after an election. Consumer/Business confidence can swing wildly with big news on the next president. Heck, even if a poll shows a president will likely be elected, the confidence can swing before the election. Confidence is one major portion of the strength of the economy. So a president can have an effect before taking office. However, confidence is very temporary and sporadic. Thus this effect is mild and short-lived.
2) Instant time span. A president can have a mild impact before making any major law changes while in office. Just the announcement of a policy stance can be enough for a mild instantaneous effect on the economy. See #1 as the same confidence stuff applies.
3) Short term time span. A president can have a short term ~1-2 year impact with a new law being passed. Take the typical tax cut/increase. Its full impact really isn't felt until the next time tax season rolls around. This is the biggest impact a president has on the economy.
4) Long term time span. Yes some policies can have a long term effect. A policy that helps a new factory/oil rig/etc be built is an example. Typically these take 4-6 years to construct. Thus the president can have an impact 4-6 years after office. Beyond 4-6 years there has been no statistical evidence reported. The reason? Simply since the laws usually have been changed by then. This tends to be a relatively mild effect.
#1. Reagan was handed an ailing economy (stagflation anyone?) when he came into office, much in the way Bush 43 was. The recession started in the summer of 1981 and ended in 1982. It did not start after Reagan's economic policies were in place but before they were passed/signed into law. The benefits of the tax cuts were not received until 1982, as they were not signed into law until the fall of 1981.
Stagflation was in the 1970s, not during Reagan's term. Yes, the economy wasn't great at the start of Reagan's term. 1982 was one of the worst declines in real GDP and 1980 wasn't really great either. But except for 1984, the growth in real GDP wasn't at all spectacular during Reagan's term. And 1984 was not that wonderful compared to the real GDP growth in 1997-2000. Heck, the average growth in real GDP during Reagan's 8 year term was less than during the previous president's average real GDP growth (during the bad 1970s years).
#2 & #3. Bush 41 was VP under Reagan, he basically continued most of his policies, he wasn't in office long enough to really have had that big of an effect. I'm not even sure
So if Bush #1 continued Reagan's policies, and Reagan's policies are good for 4-6 years after his end, why was there a recession in 1991? Heck that is smack dab in the middle of Reagan's policies. But of course, you'll cherry pick the data and ignore this term. So the same policy in place in 1981 (by your link), had no effect in 1991 but suddently had a great impact in 1997-2000? Do you have one shread of evidence of that claim? Even the years 1993 and 1995 weren't too great. Why did Reagan's policy fail in those years? I mean, if Reagan's policy created the boom from 1997-2000, it must be in effect during 1993 and 1995 right?
#4. FYI, Bush wasn't in office when the recession began in the late 1999/early 2000. Clinton's budget surpluses hurt our economy by removing money from the economy that could have been spent. The money's effect would have been multiplied greatly in the economy because of the spending multiplier.
FYI the recession officially started March 2001 when Bush #2 was in office (the GDP actually was growing throughout 1999, 2000, and beginning 2001). But no, I don't blame Bush #2 for it at all. I blame the lawsuit against Microsoft which happened under Clinton's term.
My opinion: yes a president impacts the economy. But most of the economy is outside the president's hands. The impacts are visible, but mild. And no you can't ignore some years and claim credit for others. That is just one of my pet peeves.