Desktop CPU upgrades have now shifted to a 20 year cycle.

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readers

Member
Oct 29, 2013
93
0
0
Yup just imagine your 8 year old Q9550 is still going strong on the latest games. And i am very certain based on current projections it will last another 7 years again before it becomes minimum.

And we have not yet even begun to talk about the fact that 90% of gamers are playing games that still run on single threads. Games designed each with a 10 to 15 year life span.

CS 1.6 and Starcraft 1, 15 and 17 years old respectively are 2 of the most active online games currently.


And just imagine, back then we didn't have all these options of having future proof hardware like core i7 etc. Back then was old single core CPU. And was the golden age of PC hardware.

I don't believe for a second that an i7 will last 20 years, but I believe 100% what the OP is talking about in that an i7 will last the 90% of PC Gamers 20 years simply because Valve, Blizzard and Riot are easy to predict. Incase many missed it, 90% of PC Gamers play the same game everyday because of its monetary online capability, the ability to earn ingame currency that translates into real world currency.

when you have as much invested in a League of Legends account it further cements you into the same game. Its incredibly infinite variables involved in its gameplay also keeps it fresh this is why MOBA players never get bored of the same game even after more than 10 years.

No, while people are still playing them, they are mostly replace by SC2 and GO.

Most popular games like Lol, DoTA2, Minecraft, CS:GO, SC2, D3 etc are only about 3-5 years old, WOW is the only exception, might want to fact check before you post.
 

jsmith0000

Banned
Sep 6, 2015
12
0
0
No, while people are still playing them, they are mostly replace by SC2 and GO.

Most popular games like Lol, DoTA2, Minecraft, CS:GO, SC2, D3 etc are only about 3-5 years old, WOW is the only exception, might want to fact check before you post.

You are wrong according to steam stats CS 1.6 has over 20,000 players daily.

And the only reason it lost its 60,000 daily players is because many play CS GO for its skins because you can sell it back and get cash in your steam wallet to buy games and stuff.

Prior to CS GO and its Skin feature, CS Source which was much newer than 1.6 actually had WAY LESS players than CS 1.6

So you may want to fact check

PS CS 1.6 has more players than the latest COD on PC which shows I am right in that CS 1.6 is one of the most active FPS on the planet.
 

jsmith0000

Banned
Sep 6, 2015
12
0
0
I also find it highly unlikely that there won't be an additional extension of x86 within 20 years -- to take us to 128 bit CPU's.

I would suspect that it would.

But the odds of the major 3 companies behind PC Gaming, (Riot, valve and blizzard) designing games that must use 128 bit is as unlikely as God being real.

The 3 major companies command 90% of PC gamers. They make games to last 1 decade minimum and they target last gen hardware to top it off.

Just imagine if you bought an i7 that has 8 threads right now? when Starcraft 2, Diablo 3, WOW, CS GO, DOTA 2, league of Legends are all largely 1 or 2 threads. And come with a minimum of 10 year lifespan each.

Just imagine to this day the latest starcraft 2 legacy of the void 2015 is still using by large just 1 thread. And we are in the age of 16 thread i7, and SC2 is designed to be a minimum 1 decade game.

By this estimation it would take Blizzard 40 years to utilize 16 threads.
 

ehume

Golden Member
Nov 6, 2009
1,511
73
91
I just thought of something. Think about the wear and tear your laptops take. It's not computational obsolescence, but mechanical obsolescence that gets 'em.

Desktop boxes, though, we can get at to upgrade. What held them back in the past was the lack of RAM. And when that advanced later, our XP boxen not only didn't have enough RAM for Win 7, but the old stuff was no longer for sale at reasonable prices. The advance of Windows forced us to larger RAM sizes.

But that's all in the past. Windows no longer requires ever-increasing RAM. I see no reason to scrap my wife's 2008 box, for example. So maybe a 20-year refreshment cycle is in the works, especially for business.

The only fly in the ointment is that we may figure out that we need EMP-resistant hardware. Think Carrington event.
 

jsmith0000

Banned
Sep 6, 2015
12
0
0
ehume that one is a reality that you pointed out. If we think Capacitor lifespan on motherboards, I know MSI has claims to 25 year lifespan Mainboards now they are touting as part of their marketing campaign but thats only for desktops.

Laptops is a whole different case, hardware on that is way slower etc I won't even count laptops in this cycle. But for Desktops? yup just imagine if you bought a motherboard marketed for 20 years and you bought either a 8 thread i7 or a 16 threaded i7.

I could totally see the 16 threaded i7 devils canyon lasting 20 years even with the increasing advancements of games. This is Assuming future gen consoles like PS5 don't go above 16 cores.

Infact as I understand Intel has a 1150 Xeon CPU with 36 threads right now. But it is costly at $4500
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
I just thought of something. Think about the wear and tear your laptops take. It's not computational obsolescence, but mechanical obsolescence that gets 'em.

Desktop boxes, though, we can get at to upgrade. What held them back in the past was the lack of RAM. And when that advanced later, our XP boxen not only didn't have enough RAM for Win 7, but the old stuff was no longer for sale at reasonable prices. The advance of Windows forced us to larger RAM sizes.

But that's all in the past. Windows no longer requires ever-increasing RAM. I see no reason to scrap my wife's 2008 box, for example. So maybe a 20-year refreshment cycle is in the works, especially for business.

The only fly in the ointment is that we may figure out that we need EMP-resistant hardware. Think Carrington event.

Provided your desktop case is metal, it should be shielded from emp. Make sure you've got a good surge protector though.
 

CHADBOGA

Platinum Member
Mar 31, 2009
2,135
832
136
Highly doubt it since the OP provided actual statistical evidence on everything while people like you spew nasty anal feces instead and expect us to believe you based on your "belief"

Many of you here on this thread have yet to actually read and understand what the OP wrote, you read the thread title and came to comment.

You are one of the strangest trolls I have had the pleasure of encountering.

Are you by any chance that autistic chap that got banned after throwing a tantrum?
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,550
13,115
136
20 years. 20 years. We could be looking at a global scale nuclear winter, alien invasion, quantum computing paradigm shift, emdrive flying cars and a human colony on mars.
Im not putting money down on anything 20 years out.
 

mohit9206

Golden Member
Jul 2, 2013
1,381
511
136
Like others have said, it will be almost impossible for an i5 cpu of 2011 to be able to play even low spec games from 2031.
The game might launch but either it will crash on startup or be laggy as hell.
But 10 years is completely doable. There is no good reason to bolieve why an i5 or i7 of 2010 won't be able to play games of 2020.
The reason most people on this forum are saying nope to even 10 year lifespan is because these are the same forum members that consider resolution of 720p ugly and average fps of less than 30 as unplayable. In short these are enthusiasts so their thought process and logic is different from most average PC gamers and often wrong.
So yes a dual core CPU from 2005 can play(with decent fps) a LOT of the games from 2015 and im sure a LOT of games of 2025 will also run just fine and playable on a true quad core CPU from 2015. All you have to do is BOLIEVE.
 

SPBHM

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2012
5,058
410
126
2005 we are talking Pentium D and Athlon 64 X2 at best (and most people were running single core), those CPUs are seriously bad for current games, they are bad even for some games from 2007-2008, for a new game to perform OK on these it has to be very, very simple, so I don't see the point, yes, you can use these CPUs for basic usage kind of OK, but the difference to something newer is very obvious even for OS stuff and web browsing...

my main PC is far bellow the average from this place, but I don't see how 10 years old CPUs can be considered good or adequate at this point, certainly not for gaming, if you go to 2008-2009, then yes, you can find a lot of hardware that I would still consider good for newer software.
 

mohit9206

Golden Member
Jul 2, 2013
1,381
511
136
2005 we are talking Pentium D and Athlon 64 X2 at best (and most people were running single core), those CPUs are seriously bad for current games, they are bad even for some games from 2007-2008, for a new game to perform OK on these it has to be very, very simple, so I don't see the point, yes, you can use these CPUs for basic usage kind of OK, but the difference to something newer is very obvious even for OS stuff and web browsing...

my main PC is far bellow the average from this place, but I don't see how 10 years old CPUs can be considered good or adequate at this point, certainly not for gaming, if you go to 2008-2009, then yes, you can find a lot of hardware that I would still consider good for newer software.
It can be used for more than basic use. Forget Pentium D, it was crap even on the day it was launched. I played lots of heavy games on my 64X2 4600 like Max Payne 3, Arkham City, Crysis 2, etc and i got smooth frame rates so I'm sure recent low spec games like Walking Dead, Wolf Among Us, Game of Thrones, various MMOrpgs shooters, etc will run well too. I would still be using it today if it were not for my Motherboard dying.
So 10 years is pretty doable as long as you're not trying to play the high spec games from 10 years in the future.
Someone should do a test comparing a Core 2 Duo from 2006 vs Skylake Pentium from this year testing various games from released in 2015 and I'm sure if Core2Duo is unplayable, Pentium would be too.
Or if someone here has Q6600/6300/6400 etc please do a comparison with i5-6600k testing games from 2015 and let's see how much difference does 8 years make not in synthetic benchmarks but actual real time games from 2015.
 

TheELF

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2012
3,993
744
126
Someone should do a test comparing a Core 2 Duo from 2006 vs Skylake Pentium from this year testing various games from released in 2015 and I'm sure if Core2Duo is unplayable, Pentium would be too.

You can play any 2015 games on a haswell celleron,not with great speeds but unplayable they aint,but you do need a huge VGA if you want to play them at 1080 and high quality.
Core2duo at same Ghz would be around half the speed.

G1820,windowed mode with monitoring tools and while recording with OBS (no huge VGA )
tomb raider
GTA V
Witcher 3
BF4 64player shanghai
GTA IV plus video converting
 
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mohit9206

Golden Member
Jul 2, 2013
1,381
511
136
You can play any 2015 games on a haswell celleron,not with great speeds but unplayable they aint,but you do need a huge VGA if you want to play them at 1080 and high quality.
Core2duo at same Ghz would be around half the speed.

G1820,windowed mode with monitoring tools and while recording with OBS (no huge VGA )
tomb raider
GTA V
Witcher 3
BF4 64player shanghai
GTA IV plus video converting
Good. This means all those games will also run smoothly on C2D from 2006 if it runs fine on Haswell Celeron as well.
As for needing huge gpu, nobody said running them at 1080p high is mandatory. Even 720p medium can look decent. All that's needed is playable average fps which means around 25fps avg is good. So the 10 year CPU life cycle is proven to be true which is not really a surprise.
 

SPBHM

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2012
5,058
410
126
It can be used for more than basic use. Forget Pentium D, it was crap even on the day it was launched. I played lots of heavy games on my 64X2 4600 like Max Payne 3, Arkham City, Crysis 2, etc and i got smooth frame rates so I'm sure recent low spec games like Walking Dead, Wolf Among Us, Game of Thrones, various MMOrpgs shooters, etc will run well too. I would still be using it today if it were not for my Motherboard dying.
So 10 years is pretty doable as long as you're not trying to play the high spec games from 10 years in the future.
Someone should do a test comparing a Core 2 Duo from 2006 vs Skylake Pentium from this year testing various games from released in 2015 and I'm sure if Core2Duo is unplayable, Pentium would be too.
Or if someone here has Q6600/6300/6400 etc please do a comparison with i5-6600k testing games from 2015 and let's see how much difference does 8 years make not in synthetic benchmarks but actual real time games from 2015.

I retired my A64 X2 from gaming back in 2009, it was very slow on Dragon Age origins (around 15FPS in one place I remember), it was slow for TF2 (a lot of slowdowns, even with 24p) and so on... if you try to play bad company 2 with it for example it's a disaster, GTA4 would go easily to 15FPS and bellow (that's a game from 2008), as I said I tested F1 2014 with int recently and it was horrible, min was 12FPS even on the lowest settings... Dirt (2007) had some bad stutters and slowdowns on the events with more than 1 car, which I solved when upgraded the CPU and so on... it's bad...



Good. This means all those games will also run smoothly on C2D from 2006 if it runs fine on Haswell Celeron as well.
As for needing huge gpu, nobody said running them at 1080p high is mandatory. Even 720p medium can look decent. All that's needed is playable average fps which means around 25fps avg is good. So the 10 year CPU life cycle is proven to be true which is not really a surprise.



g1820 will beat an e6600 at 3.6GHz easily for gaming, it's not representative of 2006 at all,
 

mohit9206

Golden Member
Jul 2, 2013
1,381
511
136
I retired my A64 X2 from gaming back in 2009, it was very slow on Dragon Age origins (around 15FPS in one place I remember), it was slow for TF2 (a lot of slowdowns, even with 24p) and so on... if you try to play bad company 2 with it for example it's a disaster, GTA4 would go easily to 15FPS and bellow (that's a game from 2008), as I said I tested F1 2014 with int recently and it was horrible, min was 12FPS even on the lowest settings... Dirt (2007) had some bad stutters and slowdowns on the events with more than 1 car, which I solved when upgraded the CPU and so on... it's bad...







g1820 will beat an e6600 at 3.6GHz easily for gaming, it's not representative of 2006 at all,

Which gpu and resolution did you use in 2009? Because afterall gpu is still the most important part of getting good fps. I used amd hd7750 with 64X2 4600+ at 1440*900 and thus got good fps(30 fps average) so you might be using a weaker gpu or higher resolution hence you got poor fps.
Yes G1820 will beat e6600 but that is hardly the point. The point is c2d or Athlon x2 would still fare relatively well(25-30fps average at atleast) in today's games provided it's paired with a mid range gpu like gtx 750ti and tested at 720p medium settings instead of forcing the poor grandpa cpu's from 05/06 to perform at 1080p high.
 

Flapdrol1337

Golden Member
May 21, 2014
1,677
93
91
Skylake i5 is 25% clock/clock compared to sandy bridge i5 in games. took 4.5 years. So about 5% per year.

At this pace we'll be at 2x sandy bridge in another 9.5 years.
 

mohit9206

Golden Member
Jul 2, 2013
1,381
511
136
Skylake i5 is 25% clock/clock compared to sandy bridge i5 in games. took 4.5 years. So about 5% per year.

At this pace we'll be at 2x sandy bridge in another 9.5 years.
Yeah that's exactly the point. That is precisely the reason why CPU upgrade has moved to 10 year upgrade cycle.
My policy is simple upgrade cpu when new cpu =2x old cpu. That used to be every 2-3 years some years ago but now its become every 10 years.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
Its only the 1% crowd that talks about absolute performance.

Everyone else talks about performance watt.

Accept you are the dying dinosaur and move on.

Personally I am replacing a 87W i5 661 from 2010 with a 15W Skylake that offers better performance and some 600%+ performance/watt.
 
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mohit9206

Golden Member
Jul 2, 2013
1,381
511
136
Its only the 1% crowd that talks about absolute performance.

Everyone else talks about performance watt.

Accept you are the dying dinosaur and move on.

Personally I am replacing a 87W i5 661 from 2010 with a 15W Skylake that offers better performance and some 600%+ better performance/watt.
So you mean Intel was catering to the 1% crowd till 2011 and then suddenly they started catering to the 99% crowd? Or Is it because AMD fell out of the competition and Intel no longer needed to keep increasing performance but instead now started focusing on perf/watt? Or is it because Intel felt cpu performance was now enough and time to focus on efficiency? Could be a lot of reasons but one thing is for sure, Intel has become a boring company for enthusiasts. You cannot expect enthusiasts to be happy and eat up 5% more performance every year. The Intel that we loved is gone even though they still make great products but there's nothing to get excited about anymore.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
So you mean Intel was catering to the 1% crowd till 2011 and then suddenly they started catering to the 99% crowd? Or Is it because AMD fell out of the competition and Intel no longer needed to keep increasing performance but instead now started focusing on perf/watt? Or is it because Intel felt cpu performance was now enough and time to focus on efficiency? Could be a lot of reasons but one thing is for sure, Intel has become a boring company for enthusiasts. You cannot expect enthusiasts to be happy and eat up 5% more performance every year. The Intel that we loved is gone even though they still make great products but there's nothing to get excited about anymore.

I think you need to understand the consumer demand change.

The train departed and you got left on the station.
 

Flapdrol1337

Golden Member
May 21, 2014
1,677
93
91
Its only the 1% crowd that talks about absolute performance.

Everyone else talks about performance watt.

Accept you are the dying dinosaur and move on.

Personally I am replacing a 87W i5 661 from 2010 with a 15W Skylake that offers better performance and some 600%+ performance/watt.

I'd say most people want performance/$, which has at best stagnated, maybe even gone back a bit.
 

TeknoBug

Platinum Member
Oct 2, 2013
2,084
31
91
And the only reason it lost its 60,000 daily players is because many play CS GO for its skins because you can sell it back and get cash in your steam wallet to buy games and stuff.
You can do that? didn't know.

PS- I still have a dual Pentium Pro 200MHz, curious to how well it'd play these games lol. Also I know LOTS of people that are still using an old computer, my friend's sister still has an AMD Thunderbird PC that runs Windows XP.
 
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cooper69

Member
Jun 25, 2015
49
0
6
hey, i've recently made a thread about something similar. basically, i've been building computers for some friends who actually fall into OP's supposedly "90% of PC Gamers," in which all they play are LoL and CS GO. i've used Core 2 Duo E8400s, 4-8gb of ram, 128gb ssd for os and other applications and an older graphics card (9800gtx and 5850 to be exact).

now admittedly, i didn't make the best decision with this build, as pointed out by many members who have responded to my thread. i've gotten many recommendations for lower end haswell builds, which is something that definitely sounds like a good idea. however,

my question is: how much worse is an E8400 than let's say the cheapest haswell celeron/pentium when it comes to windows, browsing and office applications? would the c2d be deemed completely unusable by some standards? or rather just a slightly inferior/slower choice, but still very much so usable?
 

dpk33

Senior member
Mar 6, 2011
687
0
76
this has just been on my mind since i first saw this thread and not sure if it's already been mentioned. but does the slowdown in cpu performance development have anything to do with the not-so fierce competition from AMD's side for the past couple of years?
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
this has just been on my mind since i first saw this thread and not sure if it's already been mentioned. but does the slowdown in cpu performance development have anything to do with the not-so fierce competition from AMD's side for the past couple of years?

No.
 
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