Despair in Argentina

[Specop 007]

I've often found what happend in Argentina to be an interesting case study in the collapse of a government and the class structure within a country. In fact I occasionally would reference it to help me manage my own day to day choices.

But its almost scary to read articles like the one linked and then take the before after pictures of Argentina and overlay that to America....

I wont post the article as its 4 pages long, its quite lengthy but is well worth the read, and does raise some questions.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...s/A47822-2002Aug5.html

 

[StageLeft]

Before 1999, when this country of 36 million inhabitants slipped into recession, Argentina's per capita income was $8,909 -- double Mexico's and three times that of Poland.

Wut? CIA factbook says Poland per capita is $16k/year. I knew there was no way they were on third world wages there.

Anyway, I just read it. Interesting. Of course it has no relevance to the United States in any way, shape, or form. I find the attempt to draw any parallel to be humorous. You could just as easily talked about Somalia and how a country that had a government now is a complete anarchist state or talk about Sierra Leone or Sri Lanka.

 

[fskimospy]

Comparing developing countries with poorly structured institutions, poorly educated populations, and without sound technological and infrastructural bases to America probably isn't such a great idea.

So no, not a playbook for how things will go in America.

 

[BeauJangles]

Originally posted by: eskimospy
Comparing developing countries with poorly structured institutions, poorly educated populations, and without sound technological and infrastructural bases to America probably isn't such a great idea.

So no, not a playbook for how things will go in America.

I tend to agree. Despite the clear need for reform in some sectors of our economy, the country is still far more advanced than Argentina was and we have a far better understanding of how the global economy works. Making comparisons between Argentina and the US really isn't a good barometer of what could unfold. Take a look at a country like Japan to get a better idea of the kind of economic downturn we can suffer.

 

[Specop 007]

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: eskimospy
Comparing developing countries with poorly structured institutions, poorly educated populations, and without sound technological and infrastructural bases to America probably isn't such a great idea.

So no, not a playbook for how things will go in America.

I tend to agree. Despite the clear need for reform in some sectors of our economy, the country is still far more advanced than Argentina was and we have a far better understanding of how the global economy works. Making comparisons between Argentina and the US really isn't a good barometer of what could unfold. Take a look at a country like Japan to get a better idea of the kind of economic downturn we can suffer.

Japan is also an excellent example however how severe was their economic downturn?

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: Specop 007

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: eskimospy
Comparing developing countries with poorly structured institutions, poorly educated populations, and without sound technological and infrastructural bases to America probably isn't such a great idea.

So no, not a playbook for how things will go in America.

I tend to agree. Despite the clear need for reform in some sectors of our economy, the country is still far more advanced than Argentina was and we have a far better understanding of how the global economy works. Making comparisons between Argentina and the US really isn't a good barometer of what could unfold. Take a look at a country like Japan to get a better idea of the kind of economic downturn we can suffer.

Japan is also an excellent example however how severe was their economic downturn?

I do not recall roving mobs of machete armed Japanese roaming the streets killing livestock.

BTW, Skoorb, the CIA factbook reference is for today. The reference was to 1999. Back then Poland was in worse shape.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: Specop 007

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: eskimospy
Comparing developing countries with poorly structured institutions, poorly educated populations, and without sound technological and infrastructural bases to America probably isn't such a great idea.

So no, not a playbook for how things will go in America.

I tend to agree. Despite the clear need for reform in some sectors of our economy, the country is still far more advanced than Argentina was and we have a far better understanding of how the global economy works. Making comparisons between Argentina and the US really isn't a good barometer of what could unfold. Take a look at a country like Japan to get a better idea of the kind of economic downturn we can suffer.

Japan is also an excellent example however how severe was their economic downturn?

Japan's economic system was a bit different. I read a case study on their issues in a management class. What I got out of it was families and banks were tied at the hip. Corruption lead to a collapse. LK may have more information on it.

Japan is also experience negative population growth. That puts a strain on your social systems. The United States still grows at a healthy rate due to immigration. I think Japan is a good case study on how a modern industrialized and for all intents and purposes westernized nation can still falter. I think the EU is going to start seeing something similar mainly due to their declining populations and unwillingess to accept immigrants like we do in this country.

 

[Dufusyte]

The article is from 2002 when things certainly were bad in Argentina. Since that time they have bounced back significantly. fwiw

Interesting to see how low things can go, but remember that things will get better, like a forest which regrows after a forest fire.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Specop 007

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: eskimospy
Comparing developing countries with poorly structured institutions, poorly educated populations, and without sound technological and infrastructural bases to America probably isn't such a great idea.

So no, not a playbook for how things will go in America.

I tend to agree. Despite the clear need for reform in some sectors of our economy, the country is still far more advanced than Argentina was and we have a far better understanding of how the global economy works. Making comparisons between Argentina and the US really isn't a good barometer of what could unfold. Take a look at a country like Japan to get a better idea of the kind of economic downturn we can suffer.

Japan is also an excellent example however how severe was their economic downturn?

Japan's economic system was a bit different. I read a case study on their issues in a management class. What I got out of it was families and banks were tied at the hip. Corruption lead to a collapse. LK may have more information on it.

Japan is also experience negative population growth. That puts a strain on your social systems. The United States still grows at a healthy rate due to immigration. I think Japan is a good case study on how a modern industrialized and for all intents and purposes westernized nation can still falter. I think the EU is going to start seeing something similar mainly due to their declining populations and unwillingess to accept immigrants like we do in this country.

I don't think the EU will see these kinds of problems. Continued population growth is about as wise as amassing increased debt. It's all well and good until the resources to support it become problematic, as we've all seen recently.

The main problem the EU has is an aging population. In the short term, it's not pleasant, however once we old codgers die off then a zero population growth economy has a good shot at long term stability.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
I don't think the EU will see these kinds of problems. Continued population growth is about as wise as amassing increased debt. It's all well and good until the resources to support it become problematic, as we've all seen recently.

The main problem the EU has is an aging population. In the short term, it's not pleasant, however once we old codgers die off then a zero population growth economy has a good shot at long term stability.

Well, amassing more debt is fine if you keep increasing income, like a person who's credit card debt keeps growing but they get raises. It's when the raises stop that the problem occurs. In theory a country can continue to increase population for many generations, so population growth may not be as bad as debt, because the younger, larger generation can take care of the old, unlike an income that flatlines or decreases having to take care of greater debt.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
I don't think the EU will see these kinds of problems. Continued population growth is about as wise as amassing increased debt. It's all well and good until the resources to support it become problematic, as we've all seen recently.

The main problem the EU has is an aging population. In the short term, it's not pleasant, however once we old codgers die off then a zero population growth economy has a good shot at long term stability.

Well, amassing more debt is fine if you keep increasing income, like a person who's credit card debt keeps growing but they get raises. It's when the raises stop that the problem occurs. In theory a country can continue to increase population for many generations, so population growth may not be as bad as debt, because the younger, larger generation can take care of the old, unlike an income that flatlines or decreases having to take care of greater debt.

The problem is the theory. Forget energy, consider raw materials and real world increasing standards of living. No matter how much you bid up a pound of copper, there's only so much of it and you can't get more. Eventually an increasing world standard couple with rising population will drive up prices faster than income, simply because the resource doesn't get any larger.

More people competing for finite resources is not amenable to unlimited sustained populations. Few seem to realize that we've already gone beyond our ability to sustain the present population as far as metals go. It's a time bomb of sorts, because when the rest of the planet strives to reach our standard of living, something very unpleasant will happen. The world isn't going to want to live in poverty always.

Edit: Also consider that the current mortgage crisis exists because in theory if the market continued to go up forever, then there wouldn't be problem. The reality is that everything has it's limits. Better to prepare for the certainly of that, than to rely on hypotheticals.

 

[Thump553]

My daughter spent the last half of 2007 in Buenos Aires. By then their economy had greatly recovered and was doing well again. The problems with Argentina were extremely unfortunate as it was one of the few South American countries that was developing a true middle class.

Recently however they have backslid considerably. The government came up with a plan to so-called guaranty their equivalent of 401ks. Essentially the government took them over-and their is no security that the government will pay out as promised in the future. A huge mistake that that rightfully caused a lot of turmoil.

Incidentally there is a very reasonable school of thought that the US system of privatization is destructive to South American societies. For example, many water companies and other utilities have been privatized, usually ending up being owned by some European company. Water (or the other commodity) ends up costing a whole lot more and the service isn't any better.

 

[First]

No.

 

[BeauJangles]

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Specop 007

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: eskimospy
Comparing developing countries with poorly structured institutions, poorly educated populations, and without sound technological and infrastructural bases to America probably isn't such a great idea.

So no, not a playbook for how things will go in America.

I tend to agree. Despite the clear need for reform in some sectors of our economy, the country is still far more advanced than Argentina was and we have a far better understanding of how the global economy works. Making comparisons between Argentina and the US really isn't a good barometer of what could unfold. Take a look at a country like Japan to get a better idea of the kind of economic downturn we can suffer.

Japan is also an excellent example however how severe was their economic downturn?

Japan's economic system was a bit different. I read a case study on their issues in a management class. What I got out of it was families and banks were tied at the hip. Corruption lead to a collapse. LK may have more information on it.

Japan is also experience negative population growth. That puts a strain on your social systems. The United States still grows at a healthy rate due to immigration. I think Japan is a good case study on how a modern industrialized and for all intents and purposes westernized nation can still falter. I think the EU is going to start seeing something similar mainly due to their declining populations and unwillingess to accept immigrants like we do in this country.

I don't think the EU will see these kinds of problems. Continued population growth is about as wise as amassing increased debt. It's all well and good until the resources to support it become problematic, as we've all seen recently.

The main problem the EU has is an aging population. In the short term, it's not pleasant, however once we old codgers die off then a zero population growth economy has a good shot at long term stability.

The problem with Westernized nations is that our natural birthrates are way down. So, we're becoming a top-heavy society, with too many older folks and not enough working people. Immigration smooths it out nicely, but the ideal solution would be to balance the numbers.

 

[Specop 007]

After looking at it I disagree with a Japanese style of collapse. For one, the demographics are completely different between Japan and America. Japan isnt a melting pot of cultures. More importantly Japan didnt have near the welfare and entitlement mentality we have here in America.

What happens when Shaneqwa and Billy cant get their food stamps? This country is about 2 meals away from riots.

 

[SigArms08]

Originally posted by: Specop 007
After looking at it I disagree with a Japanese style of collapse. For one, the demographics are completely different between Japan and America. Japan isnt a melting pot of cultures. More importantly Japan didnt have near the welfare and entitlement mentality we have here in America.

What happens when Shaneqwa and Billy cant get their food stamps? This country is about 2 meals away from riots.

Maybe six meals, give some credit!
From posts above: "....we have a far better understanding of how the global economy" and we're an 'educated nation', so assuming it ever came down to that, starvation would never yield improper social behavior, right?

The recent stampede at Walmart was a tremendous display of an 'educated' nation.

 

[BeauJangles]

Originally posted by: Specop 007
After looking at it I disagree with a Japanese style of collapse. For one, the demographics are completely different between Japan and America. Japan isnt a melting pot of cultures. More importantly Japan didnt have near the welfare and entitlement mentality we have here in America.

What happens when Shaneqwa and Billy cant get their food stamps? This country is about 2 meals away from riots.

Argentina has similar demographics to the US?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: Specop 007
After looking at it I disagree with a Japanese style of collapse. For one, the demographics are completely different between Japan and America. Japan isnt a melting pot of cultures. More importantly Japan didnt have near the welfare and entitlement mentality we have here in America.

What happens when Shaneqwa and Billy cant get their food stamps? This country is about 2 meals away from riots.

Argentina has similar demographics to the US?

Republican desperation

Hopefully it will be worse here for them and they move to Argentina pronto.

 

[Specop 007]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: Specop 007
After looking at it I disagree with a Japanese style of collapse. For one, the demographics are completely different between Japan and America. Japan isnt a melting pot of cultures. More importantly Japan didnt have near the welfare and entitlement mentality we have here in America.

What happens when Shaneqwa and Billy cant get their food stamps? This country is about 2 meals away from riots.

Argentina has similar demographics to the US?

Republican desperation

Hopefully it will be worse here for them and they move to Argentina pronto.

For someone thats always pissing down his leg in fear of everything going on you suddenly have a pretty nonchalant attitude regarding out current situation economically.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Specop 007
After looking at it I disagree with a Japanese style of collapse. For one, the demographics are completely different between Japan and America. Japan isnt a melting pot of cultures. More importantly Japan didnt have near the welfare and entitlement mentality we have here in America.

What happens when Shaneqwa and Billy cant get their food stamps? This country is about 2 meals away from riots.

It's Shanequa, if you are going to disparage a race through stereotypes at least you can get the spelling correct .

 

[Specop 007]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Specop 007
After looking at it I disagree with a Japanese style of collapse. For one, the demographics are completely different between Japan and America. Japan isnt a melting pot of cultures. More importantly Japan didnt have near the welfare and entitlement mentality we have here in America.

What happens when Shaneqwa and Billy cant get their food stamps? This country is about 2 meals away from riots.

It's Shanequa, if you are going to disparage a race through stereotypes at least you can get the spelling correct .

Why? it doesnt really matter how its spelled, if the sterotype fits...... And I see far more of them leading kids through grovery stores for government cheese then I do leading business to a new golden age.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: Specop 007

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Specop 007
After looking at it I disagree with a Japanese style of collapse. For one, the demographics are completely different between Japan and America. Japan isnt a melting pot of cultures. More importantly Japan didnt have near the welfare and entitlement mentality we have here in America.

What happens when Shaneqwa and Billy cant get their food stamps? This country is about 2 meals away from riots.

It's Shanequa, if you are going to disparage a race through stereotypes at least you can get the spelling correct .

Why? it doesnt really matter how its spelled, if the sterotype fits...... And I see far more of them leading kids through grovery stores for government cheese then I do leading business to a new golden age.

At least you don't try to hide your racism, unlike some others on here. I mean it's still makes you a disgusting human being, but it does cut out the middle man for those trying to figure out if you're serious or not.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Specop 007

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: Specop 007
After looking at it I disagree with a Japanese style of collapse. For one, the demographics are completely different between Japan and America. Japan isnt a melting pot of cultures. More importantly Japan didnt have near the welfare and entitlement mentality we have here in America.

What happens when Shaneqwa and Billy cant get their food stamps? This country is about 2 meals away from riots.

Argentina has similar demographics to the US?

Republican desperation

Hopefully it will be worse here for them and they move to Argentina pronto.

For someone thats always pissing down his leg in fear of everything going on you suddenly have a pretty nonchalant attitude regarding out current situation economically.

You have to fall down before you can get back up.