DigiTimes: AMD market share may hit record low in Q1-16

Sweepr

Diamond Member
May 12, 2006
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AMD is losing market share to Nvidia in the discrete GPU market while falling further behind Intel in the PC processor field. AMD is likely to suffer from a record low share of both markets in the first quarter of 2016, according to industry sources.

Demand for standalone graphics cards has already been sluggish given a weak PC market, and the market for standalone grahics cards continues to decline. In the already-shrinking market, AMD's rival Nvidia has eaten away at its market share, the sources indicated. AMD's discrete GPU market share has also been hurt by falling shipments of its own PC processors, the sources said.

In the PC processor market, AMD's gap behind Intel has widened. And it remains uncertain whether AMD's next-generation Zen architecture can help the company make a comeback, industry sources noted. The Zen processor architecture will be introduced in high-end desktops like gaming PCs and servers, and the first Zen products are unlikely to arrive until the fourth quarter of 2016. Zen probably will not help AMD regain its PC share, but Intel may feel pressure when bargaining with PC firms, the sources said.

In the standalone GPU segment, AMD will have to ensure that the launch of its Polaris architecture will be on schedule, the sources suggested. Any delays of the launch or performance issues could interrupt its way to recovery, the sources said.

AMD expects shipments of Polaris architecture-based GPUs to begin in mid-2016. AMD reportedly will use the 14nm LPP process from Samsung/Globalfoundries for its upcoming Zen CPUs and Polaris GPUs.

www.digitimes.com/news/a20160223PD208.html
 
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rainy

Senior member
Jul 17, 2013
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If I understand your intention any potentially bad news about AMD is a good news for you and those who share similar views.

Btw, it's really strange that so many people on this planet need to hate someone/something to be able to live.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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When you keep selling uncompetitive products it can only go one way. Bristol Ridge for example is just the failed Carrizo in new clothes.
 
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BigDaveX

Senior member
Jun 12, 2014
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A record low in their CPU marketshare? I know they haven't been doing so hot for a while, but that seems doubtful. If memory serves, around 1995-96 or so they were actually behind both Intel and Cyrix in overall marketshare, so I'm sure there's been even worse times for them than now.
 

LTC8K6

Lifer
Mar 10, 2004
28,520
1,575
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If I understand your intention any potentially bad news about AMD is a good news for you and those who share similar views.

Btw, it's really strange that so many people on this planet need to hate someone/something to be able to live.

So we should hide the story and not post it or talk about it?
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
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A record low in their CPU marketshare? I know they haven't been doing so hot for a while, but that seems doubtful. If memory serves, around 1995-96 or so they were actually behind both Intel and Cyrix in overall marketshare, so I'm sure there's been even worse times for them than now.

I think you remember wrong.
 

CHADBOGA

Platinum Member
Mar 31, 2009
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I'm wondering how quickly Intel will roll out KabyLake up and down its product line?

Coz if KabyLake comes out in Q3, AMD's already weak position in CPU's will get even worse, so I would expect either Q3 or Q4(if Zen arrives very late in Q4) will be their worst Qtr from a CPU perspective this century.
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
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Two problems I see them have:

1.) Desktop APUs are priced too high (especially in OEM desktops vs. Core i3)

2.) Low end desktop GPUs are priced too high vs. Nvidia. (The higher end dGPUs they price right, but there were many times when even the Cape Verde R7 250X GDDR5 was priced lower than the Oland based R7 250 DDR3). And in a slow PC market having a low end low profile card available is good for folks that don't want to buy a new PC....and instead want to upgrade and older SFF PC (perhaps a Sandy Bridge i5 2400 unit).

Therefore I would be so much happier if AMD focused on mobile where that extra integration of the APU can actually make a difference. We don't need Big iGPU quad core APUs on desktop. Then lower the price on the low end desktop dGPU so they can actually compete against Nvidia.
 
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Sweepr

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May 12, 2006
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I'm wondering how quickly Intel will roll out KabyLake up and down its product line?

Coz if KabyLake comes out in Q3, AMD's already weak position in CPU's will get even worse, so I would expect either Q3 or Q4(if Zen arrives very late in Q4) will be their worst Qtr from a CPU perspective this century.

Mobile likely comes out in Q3. Plenty of Kabylake-U entries @ SiSoftware since late 2015.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
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I think you remember wrong.

How does that disprove what he said? Not only is that revenue and not CPU market share, but it's the wrong timeframe. K6 launched in early 97, but prior to that K5 was a bit of a disaster.
 
Mar 10, 2006
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I'm wondering how quickly Intel will roll out KabyLake up and down its product line?

Coz if KabyLake comes out in Q3, AMD's already weak position in CPU's will get even worse, so I would expect either Q3 or Q4(if Zen arrives very late in Q4) will be their worst Qtr from a CPU perspective this century.

Kabylake-U (2+2) will make it in Q3, Kabylake-DT (4+2) will arrive in 4Q 2016. Kabylake-U (2+3e) will be early 2017 and then Kabylake-H 4+4e...probably in Q2'17.
 

Shaun_Brannen

Member
Jan 25, 2016
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If I understand your intention any potentially bad news about AMD is a good news for you and those who share similar views.

Btw, it's really strange that so many people on this planet need to hate someone/something to be able to live.
Maybe I'm missing something, but Sweepr seems like the kind of person that's enthusiastic about hardware, and hardware news in general. They may bat for Intel more often, but you've got to realize that you calling them out is equally hypocritical to any biases they may have.

Live an let live, and take your Xanax next time, okay?
 

rainy

Senior member
Jul 17, 2013
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Maybe I'm missing something, but Sweepr seems like the kind of person that's enthusiastic about hardware, and hardware news in general.

You're definitely missing something: threads like this one are created with purpose of bashing AMD and nothing else.
Yes, I agree that he's enthusiastic about Intel, however a bit too much IMHO.
 

PPB

Golden Member
Jul 5, 2013
1,118
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If I understand your intention any potentially bad news about AMD is a good news for you and those who share similar views.

Btw, it's really strange that so many people on this planet need to hate someone/something to be able to live.

There is a subforum for financials, yet they keep being posted in the technical discussion subforums. Moderation 404 as usual.


This has directly to do with what AMD is doing with products in the market.
And your comment on moderation is almost a mod callout. This is a warning.
Markfw900
 
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dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
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You're definitely missing something: threads like this one are created with purpose of bashing AMD and nothing else.
Yes, I agree that he's enthusiastic about Intel, however a bit too much IMHO.

A bit is little... But I am nothing to criticize it since there are more Intel news on there... At least Intel has problems on mobile since they chose the worst option for them: Android. For Intel was easy to enter with Microsoft and if they didn't win, they could the best they know: take down the whole phone market. Just like they did with the Netbook one. And start to make a new one from their ashes at image of themselves.

As for AMD, they shown up that they manages to destroy their own improvements on Bulldozer... Just like happened from Richland to Kaveri and now with Carrizo.
 
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mrmt

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Aug 18, 2012
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How does that disprove what he said? Not only is that revenue and not CPU market share, but it's the wrong timeframe. K6 launched in early 97, but prior to that K5 was a bit of a disaster.

The bulk of AMD revenue in the end of the 90's weren't CPU, but RAM. That said, it's a sad state of affairs that AMD GPU + CPU business today is smaller than AMD revenues in the 2000's. Intel in comparison grew 40% from the 2000 peak.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
3,974
0
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I'm wondering how quickly Intel will roll out KabyLake up and down its product line?

Coz if KabyLake comes out in Q3, AMD's already weak position in CPU's will get even worse, so I would expect either Q3 or Q4(if Zen arrives very late in Q4) will be their worst Qtr from a CPU perspective this century.

Kaby Lake won't be a fundamental change in terms of cost structure compared to Skylake, so I don't expect a fundamental change in the rhythm of the erosion of AMD market share, and 10nm will be more or less around the same time frame of AMD mainstream 14nm products, so the product gap might actually shrink unless AMD fumble big time with Zen.

Those two events, Zen roll out and the debut of Intel 10nm, are the two that will decide the market for 2017.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
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Those two events, Zen roll out and the debut of Intel 10nm, are the two that will decide the market for 2017.

10nm volume in 2017 will be too small to actually have a meaningful impact in the market.
 

Shehriazad

Senior member
Nov 3, 2014
555
2
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If it goes anywhere below $1.80 before the Polaris release....I'll buy a bunch...because it can only go up from there...really hoping that the shares drop a bit more in the meantime. Even IF they go broke...it's not gonna be in 2016/17.

SO yes.....do me a favor and have it drop to record low for a few days.



Also about the polaris in mid 2016....other rumors have it that first Polaris laptops will actually ship in April. So at least in the mobile market they might kick it off early.
 
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Sweepr

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May 12, 2006
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Also about the polaris in mid 2016....other rumors have it that first Polaris laptops will actually ship in April. So at least in the mobile market they might kick it off early.

Probably rebrands.

We don't have any specs at this moment, but it's a rebrand. The next-gen FinFET products have not yet been announced, and AMD will want to do that themselves.
 

MiddleOfTheRoad

Golden Member
Aug 6, 2014
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The bulk of AMD revenue in the end of the 90's weren't CPU, but RAM. That said, it's a sad state of affairs that AMD GPU + CPU business today is smaller than AMD revenues in the 2000's. Intel in comparison grew 40% from the 2000 peak.

That's quite the observation -- revenue is down since 2000.

It's not like the PC industry has contracted since then.

/sarcasm off
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
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If it goes anywhere below $1.80 before the Polaris release....I'll buy a bunch...because it can only go up from there...really hoping that the shares drop a bit more in the meantime. Even IF they go broke...it's not gonna be in 2016/17.

SO yes.....do me a favor and have it drop to record low for a few days.



Also about the polaris in mid 2016....other rumors have it that first Polaris laptops will actually ship in April. So at least in the mobile market they might kick it off early.

The article refers to market share not share price. Also if you think that AMD stock has nowhere to go but up from $1.80, why are you worrying about $0.10 or so per share?
 

Shehriazad

Senior member
Nov 3, 2014
555
2
46
The article refers to market share not share price. Also if you think that AMD stock has nowhere to go but up from $1.80, why are you worrying about $0.10 or so per share?

I wasn't paying attention then....I just quickly glanced over it...my fault.... :'(


Eh....I don't think it has a lot of time to actually drastically fall...my hopes are that it will actually rise pretty hard with the Polaris release....but that depends on if AMD is first to release next gen or Nvidia is.


If Nvidia is first....AMD is out of the race no matter what...because people want next gen yesterday...not tomorrow.




But yes...their marketshare is gonna drop tons I guess.
 

dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
2,655
138
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AMD is likely dead now. Is better to sell their technologies now before the competition gets them and renders useless. Or just like VIA. Sell their soul to the Chinese.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,587
1,748
136
If it goes anywhere below $1.80 before the Polaris release....I'll buy a bunch...because it can only go up from there...really hoping that the shares drop a bit more in the meantime. Even IF they go broke...it's not gonna be in 2016/17.

SO yes.....do me a favor and have it drop to record low for a few days.



Also about the polaris in mid 2016....other rumors have it that first Polaris laptops will actually ship in April. So at least in the mobile market they might kick it off early.

It can go two directions from $1.80, really.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny_stock
Which way it goes depends on how they execute in the next few years, same as any company.
 
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