DigiTimes: AMD market share may hit record low in Q1-16

[BurnItDwn]

Ehh, they havent really had any CPUs to compete well in desktop or laptop marketspace since Intel "Core" architecture came out...

They have some low end parts and can compete on price, but, they more or less are only selling in the low margin part of the market.

Every release they trade blows with Nvidia when it comes to GPUs, and they seem to have had a few lackluster releases as of late ..

 

[VirtualLarry]

When you keep selling uncompetitive products it can only go one way. Bristol Ridge for example is just the failed Carrizo in new clothes.

But their GPUs are not "uncompetitive". Quite the opposite, at nearly all price points, AMD offers more performance. The only good card NV has is the 980ti. It's hilarious that they've sold so many gimped 970 cards, if it weren't so sad.

 

[ShintaiDK]

But their GPUs are not "uncompetitive". Quite the opposite, at nearly all price points, AMD offers more performance. The only good card NV has is the 980ti. It's hilarious that they've sold so many gimped 970 cards, if it weren't so sad.

If you say so. Is that the same reason why a Nano owner cant be found? It was a card championed to the skies on this forum. Yet even AMD people didn't buy it?

 

[frozentundra123456]

If it goes anywhere below $1.80 before the Polaris release....I'll buy a bunch...because it can only go up from there...really hoping that the shares drop a bit more in the meantime. Even IF they go broke...it's not gonna be in 2016/17.

SO yes.....do me a favor and have it drop to record low for a few days.



Also about the polaris in mid 2016....other rumors have it that first Polaris laptops will actually ship in April. So at least in the mobile market they might kick it off early.

Famous last words "it can only go up from there".

 

[stockwiz]

their cash reserves are all that's been keeping them going. Buying the stock here is like having a 50/50 chance of being wiped out. This is actually the most in distress company I've looked up using the new website I've been using now for analysis.

Is that a good thing? Honestly the desktop's dead so that just leaves enthusiasts and corporate customers for Intel now. I doubt lack of competition will raise prices... people will simply stop buying the processors then and use what they have... processing power has reached a point where it will be "good enough" for many years unless it's absolutely a hobby of yours and you just must have 60FPS @ 4K resolution with tri-SLI or whatever.

Skylake is what... 28% more powerful than sandy bridge clock for clock, 5 years later? Meh. I usually wait until there's a 75-100% gain in FPS before upgrading the graphics card.

Like Microsoft, they were late to the game seeing that mobile was the future, and I don't think they will ever catch back up. I'm certain MSFT won't.

 

[frozentundra123456]

But their GPUs are not "uncompetitive". Quite the opposite, at nearly all price points, AMD offers more performance. The only good card NV has is the 980ti. It's hilarious that they've sold so many gimped 970 cards, if it weren't so sad.

They aren't competitive from an efficiency standpoint, and despite what the AMD fans say in these forums, performance per watt *does* matter, especially in mobile, where they have pretty much zero market share. It also hurts brand perception I think that they dont have a new architecture, and just keep pumping out rebrand after rebrand, even though they are commpetitive from a performance per dollar standpoint. On top of that, the one innovative product they came out with (Fury with HBM) is barely competitive with 980Ti, and has much less overclocking headroom.

 

[MiddleOfTheRoad]

They aren't competitive from an efficiency standpoint, and despite what the AMD fans say in these forums, performance per watt *does* matter, especially in mobile, where they have pretty much zero market share. It also hurts brand perception I think that they dont have a new architecture, and just keep pumping out rebrand after rebrand, even though they are commpetitive from a performance per dollar standpoint. On top of that, the one innovative product they came out with (Fury with HBM) is barely competitive with 980Ti, and has much less overclocking headroom.

HA HA HA HA LOL

Yeah, like Nvidia's 1% marketshare in mobile is so much better than AMD's sliver of a little more than 0% (They fall under "Others" on the pie chart).

 

[mrmt]

That's quite the observation -- revenue is down since 2000.

It's not like the PC industry has contracted since then.

/sarcasm off

It hasn't.

 

[Shaun_Brannen]

You're definitely missing something: threads like this one are created with purpose of bashing AMD and nothing else.
Yes, I agree that he's enthusiastic about Intel, however a bit too much IMHO.

Okay, let's have a no AMD news only rule. That will end real well...

It hasn't.

Seriously. How many record quarters has Intel had lately? Nividia? But no, the market's contracted? The heck?

We really need to kick out the pathological liars of this forum. This is ridiculous.

But no, only personal attacks are what get moderated here... not the consistent delusion of certain members. It's not really fair to have a single guy, who's not an active member of the community, being the sole judge of what's okay and what isn't.

 

[AtenRa]

They aren't competitive from an efficiency standpoint, and despite what the AMD fans say in these forums, performance per watt *does* matter, especially in mobile, where they have pretty much zero market share. It also hurts brand perception I think that they dont have a new architecture, and just keep pumping out rebrand after rebrand, even though they are commpetitive from a performance per dollar standpoint. On top of that, the one innovative product they came out with (Fury with HBM) is barely competitive with 980Ti, and has much less overclocking headroom.

Actually AMD has 30-35% market share in Mobile.

http://www.mercuryresearch.com/graphics-pr-2015-q2.pdf

And this is from Q3

http://jonpeddie.com/publications/market_watch

The quarter in general
AMD's shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, i.e., APUs, increased 15.0% from the previous quarter, and were down -1.0% in notebooks. AMD's discrete desktop shipments increased 33.33% from last quarter, and notebook discreteshipments increased 17.6%. The company's overall PC graphics shipmentsincreased 15.9% from the previous quarter.

 

[LTC8K6]

You're definitely missing something: threads like this one are created with purpose of bashing AMD and nothing else.
Yes, I agree that he's enthusiastic about Intel, however a bit too much IMHO.

The story itself must have been written to bash AMD, I guess.

Have you emailed the author?

 

[frozentundra123456]

Actually AMD has 30-35% market share in Mobile.

http://www.mercuryresearch.com/graphics-pr-2015-q2.pdf

And this is from Q3

http://jonpeddie.com/publications/market_watch

Maybe you are right, but I was talking about higher end discrete cards like 950/960M and up. I dont think AMD has any appreciable share in higher end discrete. I think most of their discreet cards are low end cards unfathomably paired with APUs.

 

[AtenRa]

Well up to Tonga is competitive, above that its NV all the way.

 

[mrmt]

Seriously. How many record quarters has Intel had lately? Nividia? But no, the market's contracted? The heck?

We really need to kick out the pathological liars of this forum. This is ridiculous.

But no, only personal attacks are what get moderated here... not the consistent delusion of certain members. It's not really fair to have a single guy, who's not an active member of the community, being the sole judge of what's okay and what isn't.

We might kick the liars and the people with low reading skills as well.

I'm not saying that the market isn't contracting, just that it was bigger than in year 2000. I only said that 2000 was peak because we were discussing specific data. It is expected for Middleoftheroad to go for it and give us more one of his gems, but I really can't understand why someone else would argue against such an easily verifiable point like the size of the pc market.

 

[DidelisDiskas]

Say they go bankrupt (which, from my understanding would not happen sooner than two years into the future), how would that impact the amd open source drivers on linux? I am planning on building a pc on the am4 platform and am wondering if gloom circumstances for amd would somehow cause any major ccompatibillity issues for linux (in general) and steam, in the upcoming 4-5 years?

 

[ShintaiDK]

Say they go bankrupt (which, from my understanding would not happen sooner than two years into the future), how would that impact the amd open source drivers on linux? I am planning on building a pc on the am4 platform and am wondering if gloom circumstances for amd would somehow cause any major ccompatibillity issues for linux (in general) and steam, in the upcoming 4-5 years?

First of all, wouldn't it be better to see what gets released for AM4 and how it performs first?

And a theoretical chapter 11 can also be very beneficial for AMD to shed dead weight like the WSA and other parts.

From the looks of it, the RTG group is being set up to be sold off as the next cash infusion.

 

[krumme]

The article mentions sources like 10 times. Lol.
Is this crap a product of a Odesk bidding contest ?
Man it takes Andrei 200 times more time to do a proper review and benchmark of a new cpu than this rambling speedy robot stuff. Google could do it better. Even toms

 

[DidelisDiskas]

First of all, wouldn't it be better to see what gets released for AM4 and how it performs first?

Yes it would be, but i don't have a pc at the moment (in pursuit to computer minimalism, i gave away my i5-4430/650gtx pc to my brother and opted to using a 13inch arm based chromebook with linux) and i want to build one sooner than later (the previously mentioned pursuit lasted about 10 months, though i still love this chromebook, as it gives me 10 hours of battery time with no noise, but heavier compiling and gaming is an ich that cannot be scratched by it).

In the case of bristol ridge apu's being at least as good as kaveri in terms of igpu performance and at least as cheap, my plan was on getting a bristol apu with ddr4 ram for the time being and then, when the dust settles, upgrading to zen and maybe adding a polaris dgpu on the same motherboard.

Now that i read it, it sound like a goofy plan. I probably have the "VirtualLarry" syndrome for trying out stuff, or a case of going against the grain, or whatever.

And a theoretical chapter 11

I'm not sure what does this allude to.

 

[DooKey]

We might kick the liars and the people with low reading skills as well.

I'm not saying that the market isn't contracting, just that it was bigger than in year 2000. I only said that 2000 was peak because we were discussing specific data. It is expected for Middleoftheroad to go for it and give us more one of his gems, but I really can't understand why someone else would argue against such an easily verifiable point like the size of the pc market.

I'm not in charge, but if I was the herd would be thinned. Far too many PC hardware company fans around here that cheer lead and post garbage IMO. Not a Mod call out, just how I would do things.

 

[cbn]

AMD is losing market share to Nvidia in the discrete GPU market while falling further behind Intel in the PC processor field. AMD is likely to suffer from a record low share of both markets in the first quarter of 2016, according to industry sources.

Demand for standalone graphics cards has already been sluggish given a weak PC market, and the market for standalone grahics cards continues to decline. In the already-shrinking market, AMD's rival Nvidia has eaten away at its market share, the sources indicated. AMD's discrete GPU market share has also been hurt by falling shipments of its own PC processors, the sources said.

In the PC processor market, AMD's gap behind Intel has widened. And it remains uncertain whether AMD's next-generation Zen architecture can help the company make a comeback, industry sources noted. The Zen processor architecture will be introduced in high-end desktops like gaming PCs and servers, and the first Zen products are unlikely to arrive until the fourth quarter of 2016. Zen probably will not help AMD regain its PC share, but Intel may feel pressure when bargaining with PC firms, the sources said.

In the standalone GPU segment, AMD will have to ensure that the launch of its Polaris architecture will be on schedule, the sources suggested. Any delays of the launch or performance issues could interrupt its way to recovery, the sources said.

AMD expects shipments of Polaris architecture-based GPUs to begin in mid-2016. AMD reportedly will use the 14nm LPP process from Samsung/Globalfoundries for its upcoming Zen CPUs and Polaris GPUs.

I wonder how much of the decline in desktop dGPU sales has to do with 28nm lasting for more than 4 years?

vs.

Relatively slow improvement in performance per dollar for desktop x86 CPUs (in general) over the same time frame? (Example, if desktop CPU performance per dollar had increased faster would there be more folks feeling what they have is worthy of a gaming dGPU? Even if it were still a 28nm dGPU?)

 

[frozentundra123456]

Seems to me it is more related to increasingly powerful igpus.

 

[cbn]

Seems to me it is more related to increasingly powerful igpus.

AMD Llano (released June 2011) had 400 VLIW stream processors and the current AMD desktop APU has 512 GCN stream processors.

Intel Sandy Bridge i5 2500K and i7-2600K (released Jan 2011) had 12 EUs and the current i5 and i7 has 24 EUs. (major exception is the Broadwell i5 and i7 GT3e with 48EUs, but it is a very rare processor).

That doesn't seem like that much improvement in iGPU.

 

[frozentundra123456]

Well, besides that, the reason I dont accept your theory is that with a high end intel cpu, either quad i7 or hex core, most times one is *gpu* limited, so the reason to not upgrade is lack of gpu power, not cpu power.

 

[The Stilt]

If their Q1/2016 isn't the new low, then it is actually a positive surprise. That's because AMD has nothing to sell at the moment. Their newest µarch used on desktop CPUs is 3 years, 4 months and two days old and even as brand new it wasn't even remotely the fastest µarch available.

AMD APUs meanwhile are not only lacking in CPU performance, but the GPU performance is also at par with ultra-low-end discrete GPUs. The biggest issue with APUs is that they don´t do anything particularly well. The lack of H.264 4K, HEVC and VP9 hardware decoder in currently available models makes them useless for HTPC use too.

As for the discrete GPUs, their flagship Fiji is a complete failure (due price and non-futureproof memory capacity). Hawaii / Grenada cards are basically the only ones which provide good performance and features for their price. The rest of the cards are mostly refreshes from 2012-2013 and they severely lack in features and performance.

 

[cbn]

Well, besides that, the reason I dont accept your theory is that with a high end intel cpu, either quad i7 or hex core, most times one is *gpu* limited, so the reason to not upgrade is lack of gpu power, not cpu power.

I should have phrased that question differently.

Hopefully this is clearer:

Decline in desktop dGPU sales mostly caused by 1.) 28nm being such a long node (4+ years) or 2.) Not enough game worthy x86 desktop CPUs entering the market?

# Existing CPU users upgrading their dGPU (on this long 28nm node) vs. # New CPU users buying their first 28nm dGPU?