the real comparison should be GF's 32nm to TSMC's 28nm, and GF was 6 months ahead.
AMD just announced revised revenue projections for Q3. Revenue is up compared to Q2 by 4 - 6%, but AMD had originally expected an increase of 10%. The reason for the revised projections? Llano supply is limited by apparently poor yields on Global Foundries' 32nm process. We had heard rumors to this effect for a while, but now they're officially confirmed by AMD.
The official statement is below:
The less-than-forecasted preliminary third quarter 2011 revenue results are primarily due to 32 nanometer (nm) yield, ramp and manufacturing issues at GLOBALFOUNDRIES in its Dresden, Germany factory that limited supply of "Llano". Additionally, 45nm supply was less than expected due to complexities related to the use of common tools across both technology nodes. AMD continues to work closely with its key partner GLOBALFOUNDRIES to improve 32nm yield performance in order to satisfy strong demand for AMD products.
The seemingly slow-moving nature of the industry is probably the main reason why people have getting their heads around it, but it's just not possible to make the kind of financial and technological advances that are being demanded of GF in such a short space of time.
Some of you might enjoy this - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ed1WexCZgFs
As you can see the guys at GF are not sitting on their asses smoking cigars while counting AMD's revenue. They have 20nm silicon working and ready but they just can't start mass manufacturing of it until they actually have the fab ready. It's coming, there's no chance of GF not making 20nm, or 14nm after that. You just have to give them the time that it naturally takes to make it happen.
GF have accepted a WSA for 2013 that was down a third in value compared to 2012. That's a half-billion revenue shortfall they have accepted in 2013, just because AMD can't afford it. Where does the charity end? It's just amazing that people think GF is deliberately screwing AMD for everything they have - if that was the case why do they even accept WSA after WSA that is designed to help ease AMD's burden?
Smaller consistent lumps of cash over a period of years add up to more money than a single chunk of cash over a single year.
You're stating that Mubadala/ATIC have to answer to Abu Dhabi via the red and black ink, but you're failing to tie the two strings together between AMD and GloFo. GloFo doesn't want AMD gone, but they also want as much money as possible. If modifying WSA's is what keeps AMD around then you dig deep and get it done.
GloFo isn't deliberately screwing AMD, they're just looking after their own bottom line.
IDC hit the nail on the head when he said that AMD is a fabless chipmaker without any of the benefits of being fabless. For example, if TSMC is to offer 20nm or 16nm-FinFETs w/ HPP early, AMD would have to pay out of GloFo's WSA and then pay TSMC to utilize it. A company like Qualcomm is able to avoid that double investment on two accounts: 1) they're in a booming market and make a crapload of chips, and 2) they avoid signing longterm WSAs. They can haggle with TSMC, because if TSMC doesn't want their business Qualcomm can just look elsewhere.
In the end it was AMD who chose to make Bulldozer and Llano/Trinity at GF, while doing Jaguar at TSMC. I'm sure Jaguar would have been good on GF's SLP, maybe not hitting 2GHz of course but does that really matter? Intel will only be going as high at 10W with Atom, did AMD really need 25W with Jaguar?
If it's purely because of yields or time to market, AMD will still eventually be able to port Jaguar over to GF, opening up more wafers at TSMC for graphics or even just more Jaguars. There are clear benefits to AMD's relationship with GF - they just need the right bloody chips! This is the only real problem with AMD and GF's agreement - FX and APU's are in lowering demand because of performance and the declining PC market.
Intel for example was 2 years 4 months between Sandy and Ivy Bridge.
Woops yes my bad, should have been...yes Clarkdale to IB. That was 2 years 4 months I think.
I guess Mubadala is some sort of political controlled looking by the crazy behavior and the fantacy ppt gf provides for the emperor.
If thats the case differentiating between revenue and profit can sometimes be a challenge. GF generate a lot og big numbers.
But at some time the political focus changes quicly.
I dont see the political interests in GF now:
The ambition to build a fab the worst place on earth outside of the poles have ended. What gf provides now is just big numbers until a new playing field is found.
I can see better use of the money from a political perspective. I think its a disaster in all dimensions.
The 'screwing' is going to be at the 20nm and 14nm-FinFETs nodes, imo. While GloFo's other customers will have access to both of those nodes early on, AMD has no choice but to wait it out to see if there will be an HPP available.
They haven't done it because they don't have to. Intel's development hasn't just outstripped the competition, it's outstripped demand.
In the past, that lack of urgency led to Intel getting overtaken. Time will tell if that will happen again.
Isn't the GPU lane for kabini PCIe 2.0 x4?
Fine for ultra low power/ low power devices but for desktop more lanes would be nice.
Kaveri as an APU makes no sense, its just there to ensure Gloflo actually does something for their $1B+ annual cheque.
You may recall that AMD changed their accounting for their GF investment to original investment so that they wouldn't indirectly be disclosing GF's losses (and eventually the share certificate was just handed over of course). They boast of revenue growth which is fine but some of that is WSA contractual revenue they didn't even have to produce anything for.
The consumer PC business is down 20%, and there are no more significant emerging markets remaining, are you saying they should wait until the business its gone altogether?
It has nothing to do with disclosing GLF losses. As the IP share agreement with Intel did not allow AMD to manufacture its chips in external factories, AMD had to engineer the transaction trying to disguise Mubadala ownership. In that case, as Globalfoundries was AMD subsidiary it has to consolidate the financial statements.
After the settlement, when Globalfoundries was officially recognized as an independent company, this requirement dropped and because of that AMD did not have to recognize GLF results on its balance sheet but instead as an investment.
No I'm saying they are going to wait until market forces (their competitors) compel them to offer more cores at a lower price.
The low end of the spectrum is all about what is the slowest cheapest thing we can throw together that the OEMs will buy.
Keep in mind too, the OEMs want this. They want segmented product lines because then they can upsell at a profit.
How do you propose AMD makes up the shortfall without their desktop and higher ASP mobile share?
This is a plausible but it doesn't change the fact that this approach no longer works and hasn't worked for quite a while.