Even after they retire the G-Sync module they will still require devices to be certified and licensed (i.e. royalty paying) in order to work with NVIDIA cards. They have 2/3rds of the dGPU market and a well-liked brand, which gives them the standing necessary to remain proprietary.
And there lies another major negative of GSync. We already know that GSync worked on several laptops without a GSync module which means as you said with a modern driver and a modern display controller capable of A-Sync, the GSync module is not required. Now if you have 2 technologies where 1 only works on 15% of the GPUs in the world (because Intel+AMD occupy the other 85%), you are alienating a huge market. Not only that but if AMD finally manages to get solid mobile dGPUs, then we could have Intel+AMD powered FreeSync laptops that cost $100-200 less.
2/3rds? Much more than that today with 76% (May even be 80% now.). Just increasing the incentive to keep their own implementation.
All of that changes the minute Intel announces support for FreeSync. NV's market share context would go from 76% to 14-16% worldwide. Considering Intel isn't just making graphics for 'fun' and Intel isn't about to stop innovating / increasing GPU performance over the next 10 years, there is a strong possibility that once FreeSync gains market adoption, Intel will start paying attention. It would be suicidal for Intel to try to compete with AMD's 2016-2020 APUs and not have some kind of ASync technology. If Intel doesn't adopt ASync of some sorts, it would automatically destroy their chances of being considered for sub-$1000 laptops that are often used for less intensive gaming like LoL, WoW, Dota 2, SC2, L4D2, Team Fortress, etc. If we have a situation where Intel's APUs didn't support Async but AMD's APUs did, who would recommend Intel's APUs for gaming moving forward? Hardly many people. As a result, while Intel is currently lagging in this regard, they are a sleeping giant that is closely evaluating FreeSync. Once Intel goes to the drawing board for next generation GPU designs in Cannonlake and Icelake, why wouldn't they include DP 1.3 and FreeSync support?
And guess what would happen if Intel + AMD both supported FreeSync in 2-3 years from now?
Also, that 76% market share NV has today is 'artificial.' AMD basically voluntarily conceeded a ton of market share starting in Q3 2014 and continuing to Q1 and even Q2 2015 because they stopped shipping all R9 200 products to OEMs/wholesalers in order to clear inventory. This huge nuance keeps getting ignored on the forums. NV's GPU sales are hardly increasing at the expense of AMD's sales. What's happening is AMD is forfeiting sales to its own partners/channels but these sales are NOT being filled by NV, hence the
entire discrete GPU market has
dramatically shrunk by 15-20%. If NV was taking away AMD's sales, the market would still be at 14.5-16 million and NV's share would increase dramatically from 7-9 million to 11-12 million. That's not at all what's happening in the GPU industry. Once AMD ramps up R9 300 series production and sends products in Q3, Q4 2015 and Q1 2016, there should be a big rebound in their market share regardless of what NV does.