Do the Democrats have the votes?

[Patranus]

So Pelosi claims that the Democrats have the votes to get HR3200 done in the House of Representitives.

Pelosi and Reid Tell President: We Have the Votes; President Wants Bill Passed Soon

http://blogs.abcnews.com/polit...-bill-passed-soon.html

Now, we know that 44 democrats have stated publicly that they will not vote for HR3200 in its current from (IE with a Government Option) while on the other had 60 Democrats have publicly stated they wont vote for a bill unless it has a government option
http://politics.theatlantic.co...tes_on_health_care.php

To pass legislation in the house, the legislation required a simple majority. There are 435 members of the house of representatives meaning that the Democrats need 218 votes. Currently there are 178 Republicans and 256 Democrat representatives.

Now, if all 44 vote against HR3200 because it includes the government option that would only give the Democrats 212 votes. On the other hand, if all 60 vote against whatever new legislation is presented because it doesn't include a government option that would only give the Democrats 196 votes.

As things stand right now, with a government option, there is a vote deficit of 6 votes and without a government option there is a vote deficit of 22.

So, the question is, does Pelosi have the votes to get HR3200 through the house?

A side question: If Pelosi does not have the votes, does this hurt her chances of being reelected as speaker of the house?

 

[nageov3t]

Pelosi probably does, it's the senate that's going to be the hurdle.

 

[seemingly random]

Obsessing a little, patranus? This can't be healthy. Looks like it'll be the likes of you who'll have an aneurysm when the public option passes. How about we exclude you from any beneficial legislation that might be passed. Feel better now?

 

[Patranus]

Ok, lets look at the Senate as the ABC article says Reid claims he has the votes as well.

To pass legislation in the senate, the legislation requires a "super majority" of 3/5. There are currently 99 members of the senate meaning the Democrats need 60 votes for cloture. Currently there are 40 Republican, 57 Democrat, and 2 Independent Senators.

If the Democrats get both Independent (as both "Independents" caucus with the Democrats) votes their vote total would raise to 59. That would leave a vote deficit of 1 votes.

1 Republicans would be required to vote for HR3200 to get it through the Senate.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: Patranus
Ok, lets look at the Senate as the ABC article says Reid claims he has the votes as well.

To pass legislation in the senate, the legislation requires a "super majority" or 2/3s. There are currently 99 members of the senate meaning the Democrats need 66 votes for cloture. Currently there are 40 Republican, 57 Democrat, and 2 Independent Senators.

If the Democrats get both Independent (as both "Independents" caucus with the Democrats) votes their vote total would raise to 59. That would leave a vote deficit of 7 votes.

7 Republicans would be required to vote for HR3200 to get it through the Senate.

cloture requires 60%, assuming the don't use the 'nuclear' option. If they really want to they can get something out of the senate, assuming baucus can stop being a shill

 

[BarrySotero]

Who Knows. She might have confused health-care votes with how many Prozac pills she took that day. Pelosi is a mess who couldn't run a Pizzeria - but oh she runs the House.

 

[Patranus]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
cloture requires 60%, assuming the don't use the 'nuclear' option. If they really want to they can get something out of the senate, assuming baucus can stop being a shill

You are correct. It is 3/5 not 2/3.

 

[sportage]

I loved that look from Nancy Pelosi gave that heckler calling Obama a liar.
The look of death!
Pelosi is becoming my hero. I love her. She has balls, big ones.
She sticks to the public option and holds her ground.
I'd love to see her as president. She's a tough cookie.
No doubt that is why right wingers hate her so much.
They fear strong women in power.
I just wish the rest of the democrats were not such roll over pussies when up against republicans. We need a hard core liberal attitude to get real healthcare passed, just as we had with LBJ and Medicare.
And you cannot argue with the FACT seniors LOVE their Medicare !!!!!
Forget about republicans... just kick some of those democrat butts into gear.
Pelosi can do that very well... thank God.

 

[BarrySotero]

Originally posted by: sportage
Pelosi is becoming my hero. I love her. She has balls, big ones.

Bigger than liberal men anyway. They only attack the US or CIA or something easy - while kissing up to terrorists. I'm sure you know what I mean.

 

[TheSkinsFan]

Originally posted by: BarrySotero

Originally posted by: sportage
Pelosi is becoming my hero. I love her. She has balls, big ones.

Bigger than liberal men anyway. They only attack the US or CIA or something easy - while kissing up to terrorists. I'm sure you know what I mean.

Yeah, but Pelosi herself lied about her talks with the CIA and her knowledge of their interrogation techniques.

So, I'd say two things still hold true for both parties: They're ALL weak, and they're ALL liars.

 

[BigJelly]

If pelosi had the votes, then the vote would be over and done.

they haven't voted because the house doesn't have the votes

 

[rudder]

Nancy Pelosi is an unyielding idealogue.... so says Obama.

 

[Robor]

Originally posted by: BarrySotero

Originally posted by: sportage
Pelosi is becoming my hero. I love her. She has balls, big ones.

Bigger than liberal men anyway. They only attack the US or CIA or something easy - while kissing up to terrorists. I'm sure you know what I mean.

^ tool ^

 

[MotF Bane]

Originally posted by: sportage
I loved that look from Nancy Pelosi gave that heckler calling Obama a liar.
The look of death!
Pelosi is becoming my hero. I love her. She has balls, big ones.
She sticks to the public option and holds her ground.
I'd love to see her as president. She's a tough cookie.
No doubt that is why right wingers hate her so much.
They fear strong women in power.
I just wish the rest of the democrats were not such roll over pussies when up against republicans. We need a hard core liberal attitude to get real healthcare passed, just as we had with LBJ and Medicare.
And you cannot argue with the FACT seniors LOVE their Medicare !!!!!
Forget about republicans... just kick some of those democrat butts into gear.
Pelosi can do that very well... thank God.

LOL

 

[waggy]

Pelosi is one of the few i just hate. I don't think she i s a positive for her party. how she got her position confuses me. there are times she just does not seem the best qualafied.

 

[TheSkinsFan]

Originally posted by: waggy
Pelosi is one of the few i just hate. I don't think she i s a positive for her party. how she got her position confuses me. there are times she just does not seem the best qualafied.

12:00 AM to 11:59 PM, every day?

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: BigJelly
If pelosi had the votes, then the vote would be over and done.

they haven't voted because the house doesn't have the votes

No they haven't voted because they are uncertain of the situation in the Senate and want to see the Senate's bill. Certain aspects of the health care bill are likely to cause issues for members of the House, and they don't want to vote (and take the heat) for something that won't be in the final bill anyway.

 

[lupi]

Originally posted by: TheSkinsFan

Originally posted by: waggy
Pelosi is one of the few i just hate. I don't think she i s a positive for her party. how she got her position confuses me. there are times she just does not seem the best qualafied.

12:00 AM to 11:59 PM, every day?

the only thing funnier than this are the hack idiots on this very forum that say that will vote for her soley due to the letter in front of her name.

 

[Svnla]

Mike Ross, D Rep from Arkansas said on local tv last night that he will NOT support any bills with public option and he is not alone.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Originally posted by: sportage
I loved that look from Nancy Pelosi gave that heckler calling Obama a liar.
The look of death!
Pelosi is becoming my hero. I love her. She has balls, big ones.
She sticks to the public option and holds her ground.
I'd love to see her as president. She's a tough cookie.
No doubt that is why right wingers hate her so much.
They fear strong women in power.
I just wish the rest of the democrats were not such roll over pussies when up against republicans. We need a hard core liberal attitude to get real healthcare passed, just as we had with LBJ and Medicare.
And you cannot argue with the FACT seniors LOVE their Medicare !!!!!
Forget about republicans... just kick some of those democrat butts into gear.
Pelosi can do that very well... thank God.

"...I never see leftists on here trumpeting the amazing qualities of Nancy Pelosi..." - Eskimospy

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: Doc Savage Fan

Originally posted by: sportage
I loved that look from Nancy Pelosi gave that heckler calling Obama a liar.
The look of death!
Pelosi is becoming my hero. I love her. She has balls, big ones.
She sticks to the public option and holds her ground.
I'd love to see her as president. She's a tough cookie.
No doubt that is why right wingers hate her so much.
They fear strong women in power.
I just wish the rest of the democrats were not such roll over pussies when up against republicans. We need a hard core liberal attitude to get real healthcare passed, just as we had with LBJ and Medicare.
And you cannot argue with the FACT seniors LOVE their Medicare !!!!!
Forget about republicans... just kick some of those democrat butts into gear.
Pelosi can do that very well... thank God.

"...I never see leftists on here trumpeting the amazing qualities of Nancy Pelosi..." - Eskimospy

Well it was true until today.

(I've actually always liked Nancy Pelosi, I feel like we could use some more Democrats like her, but she's hardly someone I would hold up as an example.)

 

[Lemon law]

The house only requires a majority, the Senate will take that 60% majority. As it is, the house and Senate may pass two different bill and then it goes to a conference committee to resolve.

In terms of the Senate, only Maine senator Snowe may be the only GOP defection or a compromise may be reached that receives broad bi-partisan support.

Right now, health care reform is in a cold war phase where lots of political posturing talk is cheap with no consequences, but as the election of 11/2010 looms ever larger, and the time comes when every Senator and House member finally has to vote that binary Yea or Nay on health care reform,
every one of them knows they are playing they are betting their re-election political life on their vote. Guess wrong, and they will not be a member of the House when that opening gavel bangs in
January/2011. For the GOP in the Senate, only one in three can pay the forfeit in 11/2010, but if the GOP loses even a few more net Senate seats, it can spell the end of the GOP.

Think of it somewhat like the Sotomayer vote, if you listened to the GOP rhetoric, she did not stand a chance, but when it came to a vote, she sailed through.

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: BarrySotero

Originally posted by: sportage
Pelosi is becoming my hero. I love her. She has balls, big ones.

Bigger than liberal men anyway. They only attack the US or CIA or something easy - while kissing up to terrorists. I'm sure you know what I mean.

butterbean, go away again.

 

[MovingTarget]

House - yes, Senate - No.

Oh, and nice jabs at Pelosi not being feminine enough for you *****. Stay classy....

 

[TheSkinsFan]

Originally posted by: eskimospy
(I've actually always liked Nancy Pelosi, I feel like we could use some more Democrats like her, but she's hardly someone I would hold up as an example.)