Does anyone think we'll see ARM replace x86 in desktops?

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bystander36

Diamond Member
Apr 1, 2013
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See, this is exactly what will make ARM work. Simply use a custom Linux fork (Steam OS, Fire OS) and then make sure your apps work with that fork and the end user will never know the difference. You buy a "FirePC" from Amazon, download apps happily from their AppStore and play your simple games without ever noticing that you aren't in a Windows environment. And it doesn't necessarily have to be a desktop, could just as easily be a laptop (equivalent to Chromebook perhaps).

The question posed was about desktops. ARM is already in the household, just in the form of iPads, Fire and phones.
 

pooptastic

Member
Oct 18, 2015
87
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For 'near future' let's say 2020.

It just seems like ARM processors are catching up to x86 lightning fast.
 
Feb 25, 2011
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"Will it play Crysis?" << actually a relevant question in this discussion.

People will run their software on the cheapest hardware that will run it, assuming broadly equivalent performance. The fastest ARM CPUs are performance- and cost-competitive with low-TDP mobile x86 CPUs, but the software doesn't really exist yet to make them usable.

When it does? People who don't care will buy whichever is on sale.

</prediction>
 
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Dribble

Platinum Member
Aug 9, 2005
2,076
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I doubt ARM will make it into desktops, mostly because desktops are for old fashioned geeks who want their high end windows games these days. Most people won't have desktops, they'll just have phones/smart devices/laptops. Those devices have a pretty high chance of using arm.

Hence imo no arm won't make it into desktops, but no one much will be using them anyway so it won't really matter. The masses may well end up with no x86 powered computers in there houses - not to say you won't be able to get Intel powered devices but they will probably end up in a small % of devices.
 
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Nothingness

Platinum Member
Jul 3, 2013
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I voted x86. I don't see ARM going into the desktops before 5 years (if ever). And no ARM chip comes close to my 3 years old 4770K.

OTOH I have little doubt we'll see interesting laptops with ARM chips within 2 or 3 years, that could compare well against Intel lower power Core chips.
 

Rngwn

Member
Dec 17, 2015
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I don't see any possibility for ARM, unless Linux would take over MS Windows in popularity or MS would have gone completely nuts and force every Windows users to use RT. The latter would be a big FU to all software industries depending on x86.
 

hojnikb

Senior member
Sep 18, 2014
562
45
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x86 will eventually die, unless intel changes it's strategy.
ARM is simply progressing much faster. And their licensing enables pretty much anyone to build an SoC around arm cores.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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Though I agree with you, we've been hearing that since Apple A7 and they kept on surprising us.

The A9X is still slower than Core. Yet a dual core A9X 147mm2 on 16nm with 51.2GB/sec memory, twice the L1 cache, 3MB L2 cache and quite power hungry.

Apple simply turned towards brute force.
 

Nothingness

Platinum Member
Jul 3, 2013
2,769
1,429
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The A9X is still slower than Core.
A9X IPC is similar to Core. So when Core frequency is low, A9X is competitive. But it certainly is no match when Core can use higher frequencies.

Yet a dual core A9X 147mm2 on 16nm
147 mm2 is the whole SoC area. The CPU itself is much smaller than that.

with 51.2GB/sec memory, twice the L1 cache, 3MB L2 cache and quite power hungry.
Remind me how large Intel L3 is exactly?

Apple simply turned towards brute force.
Do you really think simple brute force can lead to where their CPU is? Only someone with no CPU design experience can think so.

Let's see if they can still improve things. I would be surprised if they could, but as I wrote, they've surprised many knowledgeable people.
 

Denithor

Diamond Member
Apr 11, 2004
6,300
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"Will it play Crysis?" << actually an irrelevant question in this discussion.

People will run their software on the cheapest hardware that will run it, assuming broadly equivalent performance. The fastest ARM CPUs are performance- and cost-competitive with low-TDP mobile x86 CPUs, but the software doesn't really exist yet to make them usable.

When it does? People who don't care will buy whichever is on sale.

</prediction>

Fixed that for you. Since we already have Atom based machines being sold in the desktop market I don't think this is a reasonable question.

I don't see ARM challenging Intel's flagship (or even mid-range, honestly) chips anytime soon. But in the race to the bottom I think they will likely start to show up at some point. Could work with either a reboot of Windows RT or some fork of Linux.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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A9X IPC is similar to Core. So when Core frequency is low, A9X is competitive. But it certainly is no match when Core can use higher frequencies.

147 mm2 is the whole SoC area. The CPU itself is much smaller than that.

Remind me how large Intel L3 is exactly?


Do you really think simple brute force can lead to where their CPU is? Only someone with no CPU design experience can think so.

Let's see if they can still improve things. I would be surprised if they could, but as I wrote, they've surprised many knowledgeable people.

The IPC isn't similar. And when scaling up it goes bad for A9X. Its easy to make high IPC, its hard to make high IPC and high clocks.

A dual core GT2 is what, 89mm2? And that's with PCIe links too. The cores themselves are what, 8mm2 each? So that's pretty much equal for the 2.

The L3 cache is 4MB on the compared products. But the L2 is 256KB. I thought you knew a L3 would be slower due to latency. Memory is 29.8GB/sec contra 51.2GB/sec. The A9 due to its slower memory got a 4MB L3.

Brute force can lead many places when money is of no concern.
 
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turtile

Senior member
Aug 19, 2014
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It's not going to happen any time soon considering the desktop market. You either see a lot of cheap desktops for offices (which use office suite software) or high end desktops for media/software production (which use complex programs).

Now, if Microsoft brought back an ARM version of Windows and Office, I could see that happening for the general office computer. However, I just don't see everyone rewriting complex code for the high end portion of the market.

On top of that, I just think there is not enough money in the desktop market to really justify the writing of so much new code.
 

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
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The IPC isn't similar.

The perf/MHz are pretty similar for reasonable tests.

And when scaling up it goes bad for A9X. Its easy to make high IPC, its hard to make high IPC and high clocks.

The amount of ILP that Twister extracts at the frequency it does was not an easy task. It benefits from design decisions to sacrifice some frequency vs something like Skylake. But it also suffers from decisions to emphasize power efficiency both in the CPU (many latencies can be improved at the expense of power efficiency) and out (for example, LPDDR that is higher latency)

Twister has exceeded most speculation I've seen regarding how far Apple could revise the uarch in this generation. They heavily increased clock speed while decreasing many instruction and cache latencies, improving IPC at the same time. We don't really know how far they can push things but with an explicit focus on higher performance and less efficient desktop designs I expect they could come pretty close to Intel.

A dual core GT2 is what, 89mm2? And that's with PCIe links too. The cores themselves are what, 8mm2 each? So that's pretty much equal for the 2.

The L3 cache is 4MB on the compared products. But the L2 is 256KB. I thought you knew a L3 would be slower due to latency. Memory is 29.8GB/sec contra 51.2GB/sec. The A9 due to its slower memory got a 4MB L3.

Brute force can lead many places when money is of no concern.

The big extra bandwidth on A9X or the L3 cache on A9 doesn't help very much with CPU performance in most programs. You can see this in going from dual to quad channel with Intel as well. It's there for the GPU. As is a lot of the rest of the large die size. Which really can't be compared with Intel chips that need a separate south bridge, lacks a lot of the mobile-focused peripherals that Apple uses, and uses a GPU that doesn't trade in space for power efficiency to the same extent. You wouldn't call Crystalwell a brute force CPU improvement tactic, would you?

Apple has gotten very smart with their CPU designs and it feels like you really want to downplay this.
 

poofyhairguy

Lifer
Nov 20, 2005
14,612
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Now, if Microsoft brought back an ARM version of Windows and Office, I could see that happening for the general office computer.

Uh, we have a couple versions of Office on ARM. In fact Microsoft pays companies to pre-install a version on their devices:

http://www.androidcentral.com/micro...e-installed-lg-sony-and-other-android-tablets

The age of the basic consumer needing a desktop PC for Facebook and Office is over. Now if you need a desktop you probably are doing something on there that you plan to get paid for.
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
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Maybe not desktops, but I see a potential in thin client (which are replacing desktops).
 

RampantAndroid

Diamond Member
Jun 27, 2004
6,591
3
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Maybe not desktops, but I see a potential in thin client (which are replacing desktops).

This. I work on a desktop daily for writing code, compiling and such. I don't see ARM getting there any time soon...but I see the desktop continuing to become less and less relevant for the masses. We're going back to people having dumb terminals for a lot of things...
 

Thala

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2014
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And when scaling up it goes bad for A9X. Its easy to make high IPC, its hard to make high IPC and high clocks

Lol. A9X running on low power process at below nominal VCC to fit the power envelope of an passively cooled tablet. The same microarchitecture can go much higher with high performance process and overdrive voltage.

With other words, the achieved clock of A9x at low power boundary conditions is in itself already impressive. Skylake would most likely clock lower at the same power envelope.

There goes your theory...

Uh, we have a couple versions of Office on ARM. In fact Microsoft pays companies to pre-install a version on their devices:

Right. However the mobile Office offerings from Microsoft are heavily dumbed down feature wise. The only almost feature complete Desktop Office for ARM is Office 2013 for Windows RT.
 
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poofyhairguy

Lifer
Nov 20, 2005
14,612
318
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Right. However the mobile Office offerings from Microsoft are heavily dumbed down feature wise.

Not that dumbed down. If you have an Office 365 subscription you get all the key features many people need. Compatibility wise the iOS version is equal to the OSX version in my experience. That is good enough for most consumers and some small businesses.

The real problem for productivity on mobile today isn't software, but is a lack of good mouse and windowing support. That will come soon though at least to one mobile platform, as Remix desktop is showing what can be done in Android.
 
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