Does anyone think we'll see ARM replace x86 in desktops?

[pooptastic]

Since cellphones and such all seem to be using ARM, i'm sure it's made lightning progress in the process...

Curious what anyone else here thought.

 

[Exophase]

Why would they? ARM CPU makers suffer from similar obstacles that Intel has faced getting into mobile but worse in scale. In addition to unique obstacles. And there's been little actual interest shown thus far, so even if they had the big advantages they need but lack they'd still take a long time to start breaking ground.

 

[Phynaz]

Define "near future".

 

[MarkizSchnitzel]

I don't think so, not with desktop importance falling in consumer space, and all the x86 software locking in bussiness users and gamers.

 

[DidelisDiskas]

Will there even be desktops in the near future?

 

[Thala]

Not sure, what near future means precisely. However I am convinced that the shift to ARM in desktop space will not start with Windows. Most likely candidate would be OSX. In short term for Windows and to some extend Linux as well, the x86 ecosystem turns out to be a blocker for ARM.

 

[MarkizSchnitzel]

Not sure, what near future means precisely. However I am convinced that the shift to ARM in desktop space will not start with Windows. Most likely candidate would be OSX. In short term for Windows and to some extend Linux as well, the x86 ecosystem turns out to be a blocker for ARM.

OSX is a closed hardware ecosystem, no chance at all.

 

[prtskg]

OSX is a closed hardware ecosystem, no chance at all.

I think he's right that Apple will be the first one to use its own custom ARM core in its desktop. It'll take almost a decade though. Linux will follow and slowly we'll see it in windows too but that'll take another 10 years. I don't know what the OP meant by near future so I voted for x86.

 

[dealcorn]

ARM's best path to the desktop is via Linux. However, Linux desktop market share is too small to make Linux support costs economically viable. Credible Linux support for some competitive ARM server chip with decent IPC is important. Once a credible ARM server chip supports Linux, some sort of almost popular desktop beachhead becomes possible. While interesting, I do not consider the Raspberry PI to be a "popular" alternative. I question whether any competitive ARM server chip exists today. However, if fantasy ARM server chips help the big kids get price concessions from Intel, they have that value.

 

[myocardia]

OSX is a closed hardware ecosystem, no chance at all.

A closed hardware ecosystem is the only place that ARM has any chance at all, though. Apple is the absolutely perfect candidate to go all in with ARM, if/when they decide to do so.

 

[AMDisTheBEST]

not likely because complex applications need complex instructions.

 

[deasd]

Do you think iPad Pro is desktop variant? If so, then that's it.

 

[ShintaiDK]

x86 near and long term.

 

[Exophase]

not likely because complex applications need complex instructions.

Not sure if serious.

 

[Tuna-Fish]

One thing to keep in mind about Apple is that they have changed ISAs twice in the past. They have both the existing infrastructure (OS X executables and libraries are multiarch) and the institutional knowledge to do the switch. However, because of this, Apple can tell you the exact dollar cost of switching ISAs. I'd bet you top dollar they can use this to negotiate better prices with Intel, reducing the incentive to switch.

If ARM expands on the desktop I'd be willing to bet that it happens through iPads and their lineage slowly growing up and out and replacing cheaper Macbook models, rather than a direct switch.

 

[el etro]

Will replace one day, but not in near future. x86 will live much more in the professional/server/HPC markets.

 

[Exophase]

One thing to keep in mind about Apple is that they have changed ISAs twice in the past. They have both the existing infrastructure (OS X executables and libraries are multiarch) and the institutional knowledge to do the switch. However, because of this, Apple can tell you the exact dollar cost of switching ISAs. I'd bet you top dollar they can use this to negotiate better prices with Intel, reducing the incentive to switch.

If ARM expands on the desktop I'd be willing to bet that it happens through iPads and their lineage slowly growing up and out and replacing cheaper Macbook models, rather than a direct switch.

Apple can do it, we may see it happen there, and that's about the only place where it makes any kind of sense.

I took the question to be whether or not we'd see a major shift in desktops though, not just whether or not we'd see any presence. I don't think Apple would start taking a lot more desktop share than it has now with this move.

I also don't think Apple will replace their highest end desktops because I suspect they'd really need a substantial uarch development effort dedicated just to that, and I doubt that's worth it.

 

[dark zero]

Nope for now. In 10 years it might be possible

 

[sm625]

Eventually I would expect most people to end up with a single computing device which will end up being a smartphone with some sort of desktop dock. That basically implies ARM. Given the massive bloatfest that microsoft has become, one can only hope that it is only a matter of time before it is replaced by competent software developers.

 

[Phynaz]

Not sure if serious.

He is. Examine his post history.

 

[Denithor]

A closed hardware ecosystem is the only place that ARM has any chance at all, though. Apple is the absolutely perfect candidate to go all in with ARM, if/when they decide to do so.

Actually I think Steam or Amazon would make far more sense in a dedicated "consume" box - ie not intended for any content creation, just consumption of their closed system video/apps/etc.

And, because we already see Atom level CPUs in use in "desktop" computers, this may come sooner than anyone expects.

 

[bystander36]

Actually I think Steam or Amazon would make far more sense in a dedicated "consume" box - ie not intended for any content creation, just consumption of their closed system video/apps/etc.

And, because we already see Atom level CPUs in use in "desktop" computers, this may come sooner than anyone expects.

I'd think the fact Atom's are already in desktops, makes it less likely ARM would make its way in. Why use a new architecture that needs a new OS which is not compatible with old software, when an Atom will work.

I think cloud computing, and a move away from the desktop and Windows is what will allow ARM to make it into the home, but not work. And even then, it may take a while. I wouldn't expect ARM to be in new desktops, but rather be a part of some tablet or all in one device that will replace the desktop for home users.

 

[Systems analyst]

ARM and partners will certainly tackle the laptop/AIO market in the next five years; they refer to this as 'Mobile', lumped in with phones and tablets.
They have just announced, informally, that there are 9 new mobile processors, going by the names of cats, dogs and flowers etc. This is not a joke! These have already been licenced out.
They have previously stated that they will develop HPC processors; I think that a bottom-end one of these could form the basis of a desktop HPC server.
Meanwhile, existing server SoCs might form the basis of a desktop server; ARM originally estimated server SoC prices in the range of $50 - $200 each, probably with up to eight processor cores.

http://ir.arm.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=197211&p=irol-reportsother 2015Q4 transcript refers to the 9 processors.

 

[Exophase]

He is. Examine his post history.

Well in that case I'm not sure whether or not I should give a counter to that comment, what do you think? >_>

 

[Denithor]

I'd think the fact Atom's are already in desktops, makes it less likely ARM would make its way in. Why use a new architecture that needs a new OS which is not compatible with old software, when an Atom will work.

See, this is exactly what will make ARM work. Simply use a custom Linux fork (Steam OS, Fire OS) and then make sure your apps work with that fork and the end user will never know the difference. You buy a "FirePC" from Amazon, download apps happily from their AppStore and play your simple games without ever noticing that you aren't in a Windows environment. And it doesn't necessarily have to be a desktop, could just as easily be a laptop (equivalent to Chromebook perhaps).