Does lightning really not strike twice?

John Connor

Lifer
Nov 30, 2012
22,840
617
121
So I was on the back patio having a smoke and it was raining. All of a sudden I seen a flash to the north about a mile away and I heard the flat screen through the screen door go ZIIIIIIIT. I thought crap! It doesn't have a surge protector yet and we just got the damn thing. So I went inside and the TV said no signal and was a black screen. About the time I was going to turn the TV off and back on again the picture showed up. So needles to say I was relieved. Then I went to check on my desktop that was in the process of copying 32 GB of data and it too was fine. That has a surge protector. In fact an industrial surge protector they use for audio/video equipment, etc.

After the copy/paste on the desktop I shut down the surge protector and the power switch the the PSU thinking it might happen again with the storm. MY question: Does lightning really not strike twice? Or is this a myth? I mean strike twice in the same spot. What I believe the lightning hit was the sub station that just so happens to be about a mile north of here and it was in that vicinity. I know it couldn't be the cable line since that come from the south from Denver and the power comes from the north since that's where the power plant is.
 

SilthDraeth

Platinum Member
Oct 28, 2003
2,635
0
71
Though I can't answer your question exactly, I can offer a scenario.

Your tv may have just turned off briefly due to static discharge. In my house, static for some reason will turn off my tv. I can step on the metal edging on the carpet to the kitchen and the TV on a stand in the living room will shut off briefly.
 

Jeff7

Lifer
Jan 4, 2001
41,599
19
81
Myth. Electrical charges don't have memory.

Skyscrapers get hit plenty of times, and a "single" lightning hit can consist of multiple rapid pulses along the ionized channel.
 
May 11, 2008
20,041
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I suspect the path for lightening strikes is partially created by charged particles that fly through our atmosphere. Such as cosmic rays traveling through.

My idea is :
These cosmic rays are charged particles that do not really ionize (or may at some point do ionize locally) the molecules in the air but do raise the energy level of electrons in the air. Creating the path the discharge will follow. The high voltage difference between layers in the clouds and the earth are the cause of the breakdown.

I would say no, lightning never strikes exactly the same spot unless we find a way to create a path such as an electrical wire on a launched rocket or a laser contraption to ionize the air.


Or a lightning rod. But even with a lightning rod, the path through the air the discharge follows will not be the same...
 
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May 11, 2008
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Laser lightning rod experiments.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21328584.200-lightning-directed-by-laser-beams.html

IT'S not quite Zeus, but at least it's not entirely myth. Lasers have been used for the first time to trigger and divert lightning bolts.

The idea of using a powerful laser to create a low-resistance path through the atmosphere - a virtual lightning rod - gained momentum in the 1990s. Lasers were developed that could generate terawatts (trillions of watts) of power for femtoseconds (millionths of billionths of a second). These created pulses so intense that they ripped electrons from air molecules, forming channels of ionised air along the beam path. These paths focused the laser light in high intensity zones called filaments, which kept the air ionised long after the laser passed through, but failed to trigger or direct lightning.

In 2008, a group led by André Mysyrowicz of the applied optics laboratory at ENSTA ParisTech in France took a trailer-sized laser to New Mexico for field experiments with clouds. The group found that its laser filaments increased electrical activity in storm clouds, but did not trigger lightning.

Now the group has reached two milestones on the road to practical lightning protection with a more compact laser. In one experiment in a military lab in Toulouse, France, they set up a high-voltage discharge with two possible targets about 2.5 metres away. With the laser off, the artificial lightning always hit the closer target. But with the laser on, generating a filament path to the farther target, the discharge went where it was directed.

In a second experiment, Mysyrowicz's team aimed the laser beam across 50 metres of a lab, passing 5 to 20 centimetres from a lightning-producing electrode and an oppositely charged electrode. Usually, lightning jumps straight from electrode to electrode, but with the laser on, the discharge jumped to the laser filament and followed it before jumping to the second electrode (AIP Advances, DOI: 10.1063/1.3690961).

Controlling the lightning without making contact with the electrodes makes this more like a real-world situation, says Jérôme Kasparian of the University of Geneva, Switzerland. "In the clouds you don't really have an electrode you can touch," he says. But in the real world, he adds, the targets are far more distant.

Mysyrowicz's group is planning more field experiments with the laser. Kasparian thinks success will require a more powerful laser, and the development of pulses shaped precisely for guiding lightning through the air.
 

John Connor

Lifer
Nov 30, 2012
22,840
617
121
I suspect the path for lightening strikes is partially created by charged particles that fly through our atmosphere. Such as cosmic rays traveling through.

My idea is :
These cosmic rays are charged particles that do not really ionize (or may at some point do ionize locally) the molecules in the air but do raise the energy level of electrons in the air. Creating the path the discharge will follow. The high voltage difference between layers in the clouds and the earth are the cause of the breakdown.

I would say no, lightning never strikes exactly the same spot unless we find a way to create a path such as an electrical wire on a launched rocket or a laser contraption to ionize the air.


Or a lightning rod. But even with a lightning rod, the path through the air the discharge follows will not be the same...


That's interesting that you mention cosmic rays because lightning when it strikes also goes up through space.
 
May 11, 2008
20,041
1,289
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http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=28&month=06&year=2014



GIGANTIC SPRITES OVER THE USA: With the arrival of summer, thunderstorm activity is underway across the USA. We all know what comes out of the bottom of thunderstorms: lightning. Lesser known is what comes out of the top: sprites. "Lately there has been a bumper crop of sprites," reports Thomas Ashcraft, a longtime observer of the phenomenon. "Here is one of the largest' 'jellyfish' sprites I have captured in the last four years." The cluster shot up from western Oklahoma on June 23, so large that it was visible from Ashcraft's observatory in New Mexico 289 miles away:

Movie about these sprites :

http://vimeo.com/99060196

The storm over western Oklahoma on June 23, 2014 produced hundreds of sprites and some ELVEs and also some rare phenomena called negative sprites. I am still processing the captures. The radio emissions in the video are VLF-ELF, very low frequency and extremely low frequency, and you can hear the lightning strokes that generated the sprites.

More transient luminous events and sprite specimens can be found here:
www.heliotown.com/Catalog_Transient_Luminous_Events.html

Color near infrared image here of sprite above: www.heliotown.com/Sprite_June_23_2014.html

More various observations here : heliotown.com

Thomas Ashcraft - New Mexico

 
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BrightCandle

Diamond Member
Mar 15, 2007
4,762
0
76
Its a saying, its not actually a scientific fact. Lightning takes the easiest route to the ground, so if there happens to be a tall building or a lot of metal or both then this spot is going to be very preferable to charge in the future and hence lightning is far more likely to strike the same place. The layout of the land makes the spot previously chosen more likely in the future, not because its remembered by under similar conditions the charge will act similarly.

As a lad growing up I lived near a tree hat had been hit with lightning in the 1970s. There was a big storm in 1994 and that same tree was struck again. The first strike did a lot of damage but the tree stood quite tall afterwards, all be it half dead. The second strike burnt the tree down. Why that tree? Well it was in an area of flat farm land, mostly just the beets and bushes around the fields. Then in the middle of many miles of this flat ground is this enormous tree, its simply a shorter route to the ground. Its also a classic example of how lightning never striking the same place is categorically false.
 
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May 11, 2008
20,041
1,289
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Its a saying, its not actually a scientific fact. Lightning takes the easiest route to the ground, so if there happens to be a tall building or a lot of metal or both then this spot is going to be very preferable to charge in the future and hence lightning is far more likely to strike the same place. The layout of the land makes the spot previously chosen more likely in the future, not because its remembered by under similar conditions the charge will act similarly.

As a lad growing up I lived near a tree hat had been hit with lightning in the 1970s. There was a big storm in 1994 and that same tree was struck again. The first strike did a lot of damage but the tree stood quite tall afterwards, all be it half dead. The second strike burnt the tree down. Why that tree? Well it was in an area of flat farm land, mostly just the beets and bushes around the fields. Then in the middle of many miles of this flat ground is this enormous tree, its simply a shorter route to the ground. Its also a classic example of how lightning never striking the same place is categorically false.

You have a point, the same spot on the ground might be possible. But it will never be exact the same trajectory through the air.
 

Aluvus

Platinum Member
Apr 27, 2006
2,913
1
0
So, a few things. Bearing in mind that I am not by any means an expert in lightning formation or the power grid.

First, what is lightning? Lightning is an electrical discharge; it's a type of dielectric breakdown that occurs when the potential difference (e.g. voltage) between clouds and the ground or between two clouds is high enough to overcome the dielectric effects of air. Clouds tend to accumulate electrostatic charges (positive at the top and negative at the bottom) for reasons I am not qualified to explain. The air becomes ionized and forms a plasma, which is electrically conductive - lightning. In the process, the electrical charge at the two ends of the lightning strike will become (more or less) equal. For our purposes we will ignore cloud-to-cloud strikes, even though I believe they outnumber cloud-to-ground strikes.

Note that cloud-to-ground strikes may involve either the negatively-charged lower region of the cloud or the positively-charged upper region; for simplicity, and because they make up the large majority of such strikes, we are only going to worry about strikes involving the negatively-charged part of the cloud.

Second, where does lightning strike? If the Earth were a perfect sphere, with a perfectly uniform shell of clouds above it, with perfectly evenly distributed charge on each, and if the air were a perfectly uniform dielectric between them... then the probability of a lightning strike would be equal in all places. But those assumptions are not true. The Earth's surface is uneven, in part due to man-made artifacts like buildings. The distribution of clouds is uneven. The distribution of charge on each is uneven. And the dielectric properties of air vary considerably with factors like humidity. So this creates a non-uniform probability distribution for lightning strikes. A very tall building will be struck more often than the ground around it. This is why, after all, you should not stand in an empty field during a thunderstorm.

But recall that, at the moment of the strike, the charge between the object on the ground and the (region of the) cloud is equalized. This means that another strike from the same cloud to the same area on the ground is unlikely until charge can re-accumulate. And as clouds have vaguely similar charge distributions, the charge on the ground should now be closer to that of the other clouds, so a strike from the other clouds to the same point on the ground is also less likely.

So, for a period of time, lightning is in fact less likely to strike the same place twice. But that effect is pretty localized, and only lasts for a limited time (my guess would be minutes, maybe hours). Certainly not years.

Third, and this is important to your particular line of questioning, how does lightning disrupt the power grid? The popular notion is that when lightning strikes part of the electrical grid this electrical transient is conducted directly to home devices attached to the grid. And this can happen. But to my understanding the more common cause is that the strike causes a component of the grid to fail or shutdown, which still results in ugly transients but is less extreme. Or the lightning may cause a secondary effect that impacts the grid; for example, a strike may hit and knock down a tree, which damages equipment (often cables) as it falls.

To the best of my understanding, failures due to downed trees are actually the primary cause of outages. And I believe strikes on power lines (of which there are a lot, usually suspended up in the air) are more common than strikes on ground equipment like substations, although both power lines and ground equipment have a variety of protections intended to prevent outages or damage.

TL;DR: Does lightning really not strike twice? Lightning does strike twice, but usually not immediately.
 

Aluvus

Platinum Member
Apr 27, 2006
2,913
1
0
You have a point, the same spot on the ground might be possible. But it will never be exact the same trajectory through the air.

Define "never", I guess. The path of a lightning bolt is essentially a random process with many possible outcomes. If you have a large enough data set, you will start to see duplicates. It's like shuffling a deck of cards; if you do it enough times, eventually you will repeat yourself. There is even a (vanishingly small) chance that you could have two identical outcomes one right after the other.

But more likely, you will need a really large number of strikes. It's like the meme that circulated recently that any time you shuffle a deck of cards, it is almost certainly an arrangement of cards that no one has ever produced before.

The limiting factor is that the Earth and its atmosphere will not last forever, so the number of lightning strikes that will occur is finite.
 

Mand

Senior member
Jan 13, 2014
664
0
0
The whole point of lightning rods is so that they get hit more than once.
 

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,389
1,778
126
The whole point of lightning rods is so that they get hit more than once.
Maybe if you were trying to justify the cost and wanted to quantify it by a 'cost-per-strike' number....but lightning rods are just insurance to provide the lightning the path of least resistance to ground.

Tall buildings and other structures prone to lightning strikes install them as insurance policies, mainly for fire prevention.
 
May 11, 2008
20,041
1,289
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Define "never", I guess. The path of a lightning bolt is essentially a random process with many possible outcomes. If you have a large enough data set, you will start to see duplicates. It's like shuffling a deck of cards; if you do it enough times, eventually you will repeat yourself. There is even a (vanishingly small) chance that you could have two identical outcomes one right after the other.

But more likely, you will need a really large number of strikes. It's like the meme that circulated recently that any time you shuffle a deck of cards, it is almost certainly an arrangement of cards that no one has ever produced before.

The limiting factor is that the Earth and its atmosphere will not last forever, so the number of lightning strikes that will occur is finite.

Oh, you are right, if you search hard enough, you will find more variables and more ways to predict those variables. But in common language, that defines as pretty random. There is no chaos or truly random if you have all the variables. But if you do not, it is sometimes more practical to call it random or chaos.
 

Z15CAM

Platinum Member
Nov 20, 2010
2,184
64
91
www.flickr.com
I was an Railway Station Operator (Agent) back in 74 temporarily assigned to a Station in Algonquin Park just out side of North Bay Ontario Canada named Nipississing. Hot summer night at 12 O'clock Midnight. Horrific Lightening storm. The Station consisted of a Railway Junction between 2 railway lines (CNR/ONR) that had a fair amount of steel at a repetitively high elevation.

Believe me, lightening can strike the same location more then once and within seconds and last for over 30 minutes smashing Transformers, Trees and Fusing Switch Points with strikes after strikes as if you where being shelled with an Artillery Barrage.

I left the station and got into my car. After the storm which lasted approx 30 minutes I saw the damage including a 12ft round hole through the Stations Buggy Garage with burnt out wagon smoldering and melted (Iron wheels on the Buggy) and blown up trees with shattered Switch Posts lying all over the yard. Wooden Railway Ties where splintered and on fire. 2ft holes in crushed rock fill shrapnel-led holes in the walls of the station. I don't believe there was a wire that was not burnt or knocked down within an 1/8th mile area and what got me about the episode that there wasn't any amount of wind but the Ionization was like Acid.

PS: Anybody see Lightning Balls rolling off a High Hill and across a lake? How about just one big cloud just a few hundred feet above a foggy town that Ionized and discharged a 1/8th mile Dia flash that destroyed very Window and TV - KA-BOOM. Gotta love Cambrian Shield Weather and that happened in January, not the summer ;o)
 
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Pottuvoi

Senior member
Apr 16, 2012
416
2
81
Only way to get the saying even remotely accurate is to take planetary movement into an account when thinking about strike locations.
 

Chipfiref

Member
Aug 1, 2013
102
0
71
There is a "micro" path that lightning follows, at the atomic level, which would never be the same if our theories are correct about electron locations, and there is a "macro" path that lightning travels to strike an endpoint such as a tree or lightning rod. It can hit a lightning rod all day long

And by the way, there is no "surge protection" from a local lightning strike - it will jump the gap. You have to unplug a device if you really want to protect from lightning.
 
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Chipfiref

Member
Aug 1, 2013
102
0
71
I was an Railway Station Operator (Agent) back in 74 temporarily assigned to a Station in Algonquin Park just out side of North Bay Ontario Canada named Nipississing. Hot summer night at 12 O'clock Midnight. Horrific Lightening storm. The Station consisted of a Railway Junction between 2 railway lines (CNR/ONR) that had a fair amount of steel at a repetitively high elevation.

Believe me, lightening can strike the same location more then once and within seconds and last for over 30 minutes smashing Transformers, Trees and Fusing Switch Points with strikes after strikes as if you where being shelled with an Artillery Barrage.

I left the station and got into my car. After the storm which lasted approx 30 minutes I saw the damage including a 12ft round hole through the Stations Buggy Garage with burnt out wagon smoldering and melted (Iron wheels on the Buggy) and blown up trees with shattered Switch Posts lying all over the yard. Wooden Railway Ties where splintered and on fire. 2ft holes in crushed rock fill shrapnel-led holes in the walls of the station. I don't believe there was a wire that was not burnt or knocked down within an 1/8th mile area and what got me about the episode that there wasn't any amount of wind but the Ionization was like Acid.

PS: Anybody see Lightning Balls rolling off a High Hill and across a lake? How about just one big cloud just a few hundred feet above a foggy town that Ionized and discharged a 1/8th mile Dia flash that destroyed very Window and TV - KA-BOOM. Gotta love Cambrian Shield Weather and that happened in January, not the summer ;o)

Amazing story - you got to see something the average person would never believe!
 

alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
83,967
19
81
The phrase is a joke because after lightning strikes it's no longer the same place.
 
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