I've been thinking, and I'm convinced that 1% chance could actually be much higher.
It's true, Nvidia isn't standing still on regular performance with RTX, but it's also not dedicated the whole silicon to regular performance so, for example, you aren't getting ~750 mm2 worth of regular performance with 2080 Ti, or ~500 mm2 with 2080 - you're getting less.
Even if AMD's new architecture is less efficient than Nvidia's, the fact that it'd be built on 7nm, rather than 12nm, should compensate for that, and so a ~500 mm2 AMD on 7nm might be able to match 2080 Ti on 12nm in regular games. Sure, that would only last until Nvidia releases its 7nm products, but it might be enough time to swift the landscape, seeing as how AMD might be able to compete in regular games even without aggressive pricing. Nvidia's ~500 mm2 card, 2080, currently costs just shy of $800, even if prices reach the suggested base of $700 by the time AMD's cards come out, they could easily price their ~500 mm2 card at $650, which would be similar to the $1200-1000 2080 Ti in regular games. Not to mention a cut-down version like the non-X 290, or Fury, or Vega 56, that might have 85-90% of that performance for about $500 - a card faster than 2080 that costs as much as 2070. That ought to cause a stir.
As wonderful as ray tracing might be, in reality and/or as a concept, by pushing the technology in the here and now Nvidia finds itself in a situation where it not only has to compete with its previous products in regular games, but also with an AMD that would have the advantage of a new process and the lack of need to build GPU that are as big.
What do you think?