Does the RTX series create an openning for AMD?

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Head1985

Golden Member
Jul 8, 2014
1,866
699
136
Why compare only TFs for gaming when ROPs are halved, TMUs are less and memory bandwidth almost half and yet Polaris is faster.

As i have said before, you have to compare against R9 390 at the same clocks vs RX480 and see how much faster Polaris is in gaming.
Comparing only TFLOPs for gaming is wrong.
They have same bandwidth.But yeah hawaii have more rops and TMU.But in 1080p rops will have little impact.
 

Head1985

Golden Member
Jul 8, 2014
1,866
699
136
omg how many times i must say to you that they underclocked 390x to match rx480?
390x 512bit with ram at 2000
rx480 256bit with ram at 4000
Thay have same 256GB/s bandwidth.This is 3rd time i am telling this to you.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136
omg how many times i must say to you that they underclocked 390x to match rx480?
390x 512bit with ram at 2000
rx480 256bit with ram at 4000
Thay have same 256GB/s bandwidth.This is 3rd time i am telling this to you.
What are you on about? Who underclocked 390X ram, AMD and/or Techpowerup?

Why waste posts on easily verifiable facts? Ram was 2000MHz clock on RX480 times 4 = 8000, Ram was 1500MHz clock on 390X times 4 = 6000, so 50% more for 390X vs RX480.
 

Head1985

Golden Member
Jul 8, 2014
1,866
699
136
Jesus ok 4th time with google translate
https://translate.google.com/transl...formancerating-polaris-architektur&edit-text=
Unfortunately, it is currently hardly possible to pinpoint the advantages of Polaris in games. Instead, you can only do this roughly - as in this section. For example, the Radeon R9 390X can be easily upgraded to a theoretically similar level of performance as the Radeon RX 480. By minimizing the clock rate to 1035 MHz, the theoretical shader and texture performance of both graphics cards is the same. A memory clock of only 2,000 MHz also results in an identical memory bandwidth
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
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Ok my bad i didnt see the memory downclock, but again the ROPs are still double for the R9 390X , with 22% more cores and 22% more TMUs and still Polaris its faster.
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
136
Whatever. When your most important market is consoles and the gaming base is optimized for that there is no reasons for huge changes. Makes sense.
Where the problem arises is the inability to make a functioning ngg path in vega after so many years of designing new arch.
That surely is a no bonus result
 

krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
136
An bgg path would have enabled a smooth transistion to newer archs.
Dont know where navi lands. Unless they seriously mess up again we should be in for some solid step forwards. Bug fix plus new things plus 7nm. Certainly far better than the currrent dirt expensive half slow stuff. I m not pesimistic. No more gf either. Good.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,223
1,598
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Where the problem arises is the inability to make a functioning ngg path in vega after so many years of designing new arch.
That surely is a no bonus result

Was there actually ever a statement why it doesn't work? is the hardware broken or just no software support (driver or game devs) ?
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,223
1,598
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Sad true is that AMD is stuck on 4x shader engines/64rops/256TMU/4096SP.That is pretty unbalanced setup.

Agree but is it proven they are really stuck or just went the "easy" way from Fiji to Vega due to lack of funds? Obviously they had limited time and money so maybe they decided to do FP16 stuff over expanding to 6 engines.

The lack of funding is obvious and probably the reason Raja left.
 

zliqdedo

Member
Dec 10, 2010
59
10
81
I have written before in another thread there is a potential opening here. But, a lot of stars would have to align. Too many IMO.

AMD is simply too far behind, and while there has been a lot of complaing, NVidia is not really standing still on performance on regular games with RTX.

I will be totally shocked if AMD released a gaming GPU that caught 2080Ti on non Ray traced games. I don't think there is more than a 1% chance of that happening.

2060/2050 likely won't have RT cores, so they will be small die pure conventional performance. So no opportunity there.

That leaves 2080/2070. AMD might in theory catch 2080/2070 if the planets align, but they probably won't undercut NVidia on price, just like they didn't with Vega.

So there is opportunity, but likely nothing will come of it.

I've been thinking, and I'm convinced that 1% chance could actually be much higher.

It's true, Nvidia isn't standing still on regular performance with RTX, but it's also not dedicated the whole silicon to regular performance so, for example, you aren't getting ~750 mm2 worth of regular performance with 2080 Ti, or ~500 mm2 with 2080 - you're getting less.

Even if AMD's new architecture is less efficient than Nvidia's, the fact that it'd be built on 7nm, rather than 12nm, should compensate for that, and so a ~500 mm2 AMD on 7nm might be able to match 2080 Ti on 12nm in regular games. Sure, that would only last until Nvidia releases its 7nm products, but it might be enough time to swift the landscape, seeing as how AMD might be able to compete in regular games even without aggressive pricing. Nvidia's ~500 mm2 card, 2080, currently costs just shy of $800, even if prices reach the suggested base of $700 by the time AMD's cards come out, they could easily price their ~500 mm2 card at $650, which would be similar to the $1200-1000 2080 Ti in regular games. Not to mention a cut-down version like the non-X 290, or Fury, or Vega 56, that might have 85-90% of that performance for about $500 - a card faster than 2080 that costs as much as 2070. That ought to cause a stir.

As wonderful as ray tracing might be, in reality and/or as a concept, by pushing the technology in the here and now Nvidia finds itself in a situation where it not only has to compete with its previous products in regular games, but also with an AMD that would have the advantage of a new process, and the lack of need to build GPUs that are as big.

What do you think?
 
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krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
5,956
1,595
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Was there actually ever a statement why it doesn't work? is the hardware broken or just no software support (driver or game devs) ?
There was a statement but it didnt explain why.
I mean surely there is a technical explanation but there is organizational reasons it was borked.

Its not about the devs or engines. Amd cant get the driver to work properly and they stopped trying to get it to work months back. So you can say its a hardware problem but i assume differentiating between hardware and software in that way is not fruitfull.

The ngg was important because if it worked the efficiency and perf would have been there independant of devs. Like maxwell. Now we have to wait to 2019. Lol.
 
Reactions: Headfoot

Dribble

Platinum Member
Aug 9, 2005
2,076
611
136
We're waiting on a GCN replacement for the high end, from what we can tell AMD have just put that on a back burner for too long - just tweaking GCN again and again extending it's life a little. The money and manpower went to Ryzen so this is all they could afford to do. I'm guessing that's why Raja left - it takes years to develop a new arch and they weren't doing it. If AMD had something exciting coming he would have stayed.

I'm also guessing AMD feels a full GCN chip is still good enough for the mid range or a new console so that's what they will release in 2019 at 7nm. Yet another GCN with the same 64 rops/4096 cores but good clocks and DDR6, it'll also power consoles combined with ryzen cpu cores. That's enough to keep the relatively small gpu team busy, and the console chip should make them good money.

Hence the replacement for GCN that is still a long long way off, probably further off then whatever Raja is doing at Intel.
 

PeterScott

Platinum Member
Jul 7, 2017
2,605
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I've been thinking, and I'm convinced that 1% chance could actually be much higher.

It's true, Nvidia isn't standing still on regular performance with RTX, but it's also not dedicated the whole silicon to regular performance so, for example, you aren't getting ~750 mm2 worth of regular performance with 2080 Ti, or ~500 mm2 with 2080 - you're getting less.

Even if AMD's new architecture is less efficient than Nvidia's, the fact that it'd be built on 7nm, rather than 12nm, should compensate for that, and so a ~500 mm2 AMD on 7nm might be able to match 2080 Ti on 12nm in regular games. Sure, that would only last until Nvidia releases its 7nm products, but it might be enough time to swift the landscape, seeing as how AMD might be able to compete in regular games even without aggressive pricing. Nvidia's ~500 mm2 card, 2080, currently costs just shy of $800, even if prices reach the suggested base of $700 by the time AMD's cards come out, they could easily price their ~500 mm2 card at $650, which would be similar to the $1200-1000 2080 Ti in regular games. Not to mention a cut-down version like the non-X 290, or Fury, or Vega 56, that might have 85-90% of that performance for about $500 - a card faster than 2080 that costs as much as 2070. That ought to cause a stir.

As wonderful as ray tracing might be, in reality and/or as a concept, by pushing the technology in the here and now Nvidia finds itself in a situation where it not only has to compete with its previous products in regular games, but also with an AMD that would have the advantage of a new process and the lack of need to build GPU that are as big.

What do you think?

This is essentially what the original post was about. It's exactly that possibility of exploiting NVidia's "wasted" die area for RT.

But really I think the window to exploit is quite small.

On the the 7nm advantage:
Initially 7nm is going to be quite expensive, so initial parts will probably be on the small size from everyone, So I just don't see AMD shooting for a consumer die on a 7nm at ~500 mm2, at least not a while. By the time 7nm is refined for large dies, NVidia will likely be moving to 7nm as well.

On AMDs die not having space devoted to RT:
Some may disagree, but IMO AMD will need it's own RT solution. RT is not PhysX or Hairworks. RT is a DX12 feature going forward, and it will be hard to ignore.

So AMD could deliver a huge 7nm before NVidia gets there, without RT HW and thus giving them a leg up, but I doubt it, and it will probably have to happen by middle of 2019, or the opportunity will be slipping away, as NVidia will soon be on 7nm and AMD will soon need RT.

So I doubt it will happen, but AMD could surprise us. The are more in Stealth mode since the Raja departed, and IMO the new mode of operation is preferable. Hype when the product is ready, not a year in advance.
 

Geegeeoh

Member
Oct 16, 2011
145
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What about "classic" GPU + RT on separate chip connected via Infinity Fabric? Is it too slow? If so, via interposer?
 

zliqdedo

Member
Dec 10, 2010
59
10
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On the the 7nm advantage:
Initially 7nm is going to be quite expensive, so initial parts will probably be on the small size from everyone, So I just don't see AMD shooting for a consumer die on a 7nm at ~500 mm2, at least not a while. By the time 7nm is refined for large dies, NVidia will likely be moving to 7nm as well.
Yeah, maybe. Even if a ~500 mm2 die turns out unrealistic, a ~400 mm2 card might land above 2080, and easily sell for $450-500. The effect would be similar.
On AMDs die not having space devoted to RT:
Some may disagree, but IMO AMD will need it's own RT solution. RT is not PhysX or Hairworks. RT is a DX12 feature going forward, and it will be hard to ignore.
I totally agree and hope AMD would have competitive RT products in the future. That's part of the reason I think it'd be beneficial for them to exploit this small window of opportunity for regular rendering in 2019 - not only would they make an extra profit, gain some market share, but they would also essentially slow down RT adoption, buying them more time, and making them look good - it's not hard to imagine how the people that bought those nice regular cards back in 2019 might be excited when some two years later the same company introduces a mature RT solution that not only works better, and is capable of powering their high-res monitors, but also exists in a landscape where RT games are much more widespread. By which point AMD becomes dominant and exploitative, and we start rooting for Nvidia. The circle of life.
 

PeterScott

Platinum Member
Jul 7, 2017
2,605
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Yeah, maybe. Even if a ~500 mm2 die turns out unrealistic, a ~400 mm2 card might land above 2080, and easily sell for $450-500. The effect would be similar.

I totally agree and hope AMD would have competitive RT products in the future. That's part of the reason I think it'd be beneficial for them to exploit this small window of opportunity for regular rendering in 2019 - not only would they make an extra profit, gain some market share, but they would also essentially slow down RT adoption, buying them more time, and making them look good - it's not hard to imagine how the people that bought those nice regular cards back in 2019 might be excited when some two years later the same company introduces a mature RT solution that not only works better, and is capable of powering their high-res monitors, but also exists in a landscape where RT games are much more widespread. By which point AMD becomes dominant and exploitative, and we start rooting for Nvidia. The circle of life.

It would be good if AMD has such product. It's just that I don't expect it.

But we should get some clues from the new 7nm Pro Vega coming later this year, and maybe they can make a high end consumer card out of it as well.
 

Malogeek

Golden Member
Mar 5, 2017
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I don't think there will be much issue with AMD bringing RT market in 2020 or later. Nvidia are in a great position to bring this hardware even though I don't think we're quite there on performance from what we've seen so far. So it's great that we're finally interesting this in the consumer gaming space and looking forward to the future of gaming and what AMD will do with it... eventually.
 

slashy16

Member
Mar 24, 2017
151
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With RTX prices, the $300 market will swift to entry level. Im sure they can afford another 300-500mm2 die.



Polaris was introduced in 2016, are we all here suggesting that AMD doesnt have a better architecture to release in 2018-2019 ??
From what we have seen from the RavenRidge APUs, Vega mArch is doing ok, even without any tinkering and just porting it to 7nm will make it more than enough to compete in the $600+ market against RTX2070 and RTX 2080.



Sorry but at launch, Vega 56 was easily faster than GTX1070 at same price ($399) and Vega64 was very close to GTX1080 at lower price ($499).

Vega has never ever been cheaper than or the same price as it's Nvidia counterpart. Vega 56/64 has been slower than its Nvidia counterpart since launch and in the past 12 months has gotten even slower. Vega has been getting slower each month as Nvidia has continued to update their drivers while AMD has done nothing for their failed vega architecture. Not only are the Vega cards slower, they consume way more power and their in-game quality is substandard. The amount of stutter I experienced with a vega56 which was purchased for mining was incredible. There are numerous complaints about this all over web. Sorry but, if you own a vega card and purchased it for anything other than mining you got totally ripped off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJFm51OFcNA
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
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AMD doesnt need more than 300-350mm2 VEGA at 7nm to compete against GTX2080/2080Ti.
According to TSMC, "Compared to its 10nm FinFET process, TSMC’s 7nm FinFET features 1.6X logic density, ~20% speed improvement, and ~40% power reduction."
Now if you add the difference between 16/12 vs 10nm, "this process offers 2X logic density than its 16nm predecessor, along with ~15% faster speed and ~35% less power consumption. "

The 7nm density over 16/12nm is enormous (according to TSMC), add the power reduction on top of that and 7nm Products will be amazing.

The only problem is if AMD will have the capacity in H1 2019 for VEGA 20 Instinct + a VEGA 20 consumer but also EPYC 2 and Ryzen 3.

Some of those products will have to go in H2 2019 or even H1 2020 for sure. Unless they managed to book all 7nm capacity left from Apple which i find it unrealistic for AMD at this point.
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
7,064
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A 500-600 mm2 AMD GPU that is even 10% slower or less than a 2080 Ti @ $800 (not my ideal price but AMD needs to make money too) would also put a price on RTX.

Right now, as the only game in town and a muddying of performance increases with new features makes the RTX 2080ti price/performance difficult to suss out for those in that performance bracket. AMD can refocus the question to "but is it worth $400 for that RTX functionality" and take some wind out of those sales .

Fact is, all the departures from AMD's RTG group suggests that we can expect a while of cost conscious, margin/marketshare oriented releases releases rather than something that goes for the crown. Intel appears to be where the money/fun is for AMD's gpu designers at the moment.

Lisa Su did say, long ago before the release of the Fury X, that AMD would not be content in settling for second place in any of their markets. I hope she is legitimately dedicated to that goal because NV doesn't rest on it's laurels like Intel for too long and they may not get another opportunity like this one ever again.
 

ZeroRift

Member
Apr 13, 2005
195
6
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On AMDs die not having space devoted to RT:
Some may disagree, but IMO AMD will need it's own RT solution. RT is not PhysX or Hairworks. RT is a DX12 feature going forward, and it will be hard to ignore.

I think this is an important point in the context of the future.

IMO:
RT <> Hairworks
RT == Tessellation

I fully expect the same behavior from Nvidia here as we saw with Tessellation (that is to say, "optimizing" ray counts in green titles), since they have an early lead on hardware support.

In an immediate sense, however, I don't predict this as being terribly relevant to where AMD ends up in the charts. So I don't think this factor necessarily obviates a short-term opportunity for AMD to compete on rasterization alone.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
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AMD first needs a product to have a chance of taking advantage of whatever there is to take advantage of. The only thing that I think they can even release in the next year, would be a 7nm Vega part. We know that they will have 7nm pro Vega card(s) by the end of this year, but I don't recall any definitive statements that they are planning something for the consumer class graphics market.

I guess the scuttlebutt is that if Vega 56/64 had all of the supposed "Game-based fancy goodies" active and usable, then it would currently be a more competitive performance option than it currently is (at the 1080ti level, anyway. not sure about efficiency...). I'm not sure if it's even possible to effectively make the rasterizers or primitive shaders or whatever all that is work in the real world, because a lot of this still depends on developer work. They can be active in the hardware and functioning in the drivers, but honestly will never work if games aren't designed to use them. I think AMD will have this problem forever, unless they choose a different strategy of design.

Best case scenario for them is a price-competitive 7nm Vega that is more efficient and has active, functioning NGG components. I can't imagine them spending time on this, especially with GloFo out of the picture for the foreseeable future when it comes to the hardware that exists in this tier.
 

Despoiler

Golden Member
Nov 10, 2007
1,966
770
136
Vega has never ever been cheaper than or the same price as it's Nvidia counterpart. Vega 56/64 has been slower than its Nvidia counterpart since launch and in the past 12 months has gotten even slower. Vega has been getting slower each month as Nvidia has continued to update their drivers while AMD has done nothing for their failed vega architecture. Not only are the Vega cards slower, they consume way more power and their in-game quality is substandard. The amount of stutter I experienced with a vega56 which was purchased for mining was incredible. There are numerous complaints about this all over web. Sorry but, if you own a vega card and purchased it for anything other than mining you got totally ripped off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJFm51OFcNA

Nvidia didn't release a 1070ti because Vega 56 was slower than a 1070. Vega 56 was MSRP at launch. I'm not having any stuttering issues with Vega 56 and never have on any game I've played. I also don't have any in game quality issues. No one cares about power, certainly not 1/2 a lightbulb worth, unless they are being forced to buy a bigger PSU, which wouldn't happen if you planned your builds better. You can also make the card sip power if that were really your number one goal. You sound like you are doing it wrong on a lot of fronts.
 
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