"Don't shoot the messenger" will be Saddam's undoing

[RyanM]

Chew on this for a moment.

Let's assume, ignoring the lack of evidence for this point, that Saddam Hussein IS alive. He's hunkered down in some bunker or military complex that's off our radar.

With me so far?

Now, just as our President, he's not going to be looking over military schematics and footage from the front - He's going to rely on his military commanders and advisors to present him with an accurate depiction of the war, and then he'll issue broad directives from there to steer the military commanders in their campaigns.

Now, we're talking about Saddam Hussein. Do you think there is a SINGLE member of his administration who's willing to tell him they're getting their asses handed to them?

Of course not. Saddam wouldn't hestitate to shoot the messenger.

This fact echoes down the ranks - His advisors and commanders are not going to want to tell him the truth, and they're also going to be pissed at the messenger when they get informed. So whomever tells them will likely also embellish or distort, or, perhaps, totally ignore the truth.

This ripples down the command chain, and the end result is simple - As the chain of command in his organization gets higher, they are relying on less and less reliable, or possibly totally false, information. And whoever is at the top, whether it be Saddam Hussein, one of his sons, or whomever is next in line for command, whoever is up there, is going to be hearing NOTHING but good news - Despite the contrary.

It won't become clear to everyone until we're within a 9mm bullet's arc from Baghdad - Only then will it be clearly visible to everyone who is REALLY winning the war.

Anyone else think this sounds totally plausible?

 

[gplanet]

You might be right but is Saddam really stupid enough to think that his military is capable of victory? Does he really believe that Allah is going to lead them to victory?

 

[RyanM]

No, Saddam's secular. Some say he's a closet Atheist.

But, if everyone who reports to you is telling you emphatically that they're beating back coalition troops, and you have no indication otherwise, yes, you will believe them.

 

[Alistar7]

How funny would that be if they actually believed the crap they were claiming,lol. The thought of his own guys convincing him they were winning is making me laugh uncontrollably.

Interesting theory, probably not far from the truth.

I for one cannot wait to find out the true feelings of the majority of Iraqi's once they are safe and free to speak their minds.

 

[NightTrain]

Originally posted by: MachFive
No, Saddam's secular. Some say he's a closet Atheist.

But, if everyone who reports to you is telling you emphatically that they're beating back coalition troops, and you have no indication otherwise, yes, you will believe them.

He could look out a window.

 

[RyanM]

What if he can't? What is he's trapped in a bunker because our bombs destroyed the exits? Or perhaps bedridden in a hospital from wounds from that same bunker buster?

 

[gplanet]

it's like the episode of the simpsons when mr. burns is broke and his team of 9 lawyers only tell him what he wants to hear

 

[RyanM]

Originally posted by: gplanet
it's like the episode of the simpsons when mr. burns is broke and his team of 9 lawyers only tell him what he wants to hear

You couldn't be more right.

Scaring a dozen men into becoming yes-men through psychological torture and veiled death threats is fine during peace time, but as soon as the bombs start dropping, it will screw you royally.

 

[Yossarian]

Originally posted by: MachFive
Chew on this for a moment.

Let's assume, ignoring the lack of evidence for this point, that Saddam Hussein IS alive. He's hunkered down in some bunker or military complex that's off our radar.

With me so far?

no... *drools*

 

[Alistar7]

Saddam made his own bed, let him Die in it.....

 

[jjones]

Saddam knew damn well he would get his ass handed to him before the war started and if he's alive, he sure knows that hte Iraqi army butts are being collectively kicked by the coalition. That's not what he was aiming for. His plan was to get sympathy from the international community and hopefully put a halt to the war or, if that could not happen, create such confusion on the battlefield that enough civilians would be killed that it would enrage the international community, and especially the Arab and Muslim community, that the coalition would either have to cease its attack or that it would spark a greater conflict.

In reality, I believe he had simply hoped that his friendship and, quite frankly, bribes with France and Russia would be enough to keep the Americans at bay through diplomatic channels and it almost worked.

 

[Morph]

You make one very big mistake in your reasoning, in fact a mistake that's very common around here. You assume that Saddam Hussein and his followers are stupid. They are not.

 

[NightTrain]

You make one very big mistake in your reasoning, in fact a mistake that's very common around here. You assume that Saddam Hussein and his followers are stupid. They are not.

Luckily we have our local minister of disinformation handy to dispel such notions. Otherwise we might accidentally blow ourselves up with pencils.

 

[Chadder007]

Originally posted by: gplanet
it's like the episode of the simpsons when mr. burns is broke and his team of 9 lawyers only tell him what he wants to hear

Same thing I was thinking. IB that is exactly what is going on in Baghdad.

 

[Chadder007]

Originally posted by: Morph
You make one very big mistake in your reasoning, in fact a mistake that's very common around here. You assume that Saddam Hussein and his followers are stupid. They are not.

So you are assuming that they are smart? ...They are not. Then again,...you should know what happens when you "ass"ume.

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: Morph
You make one very big mistake in your reasoning, in fact a mistake that's very common around here. You assume that Saddam Hussein and his followers are stupid. They are not.

I would bet Saddam is quite intelligent. He's very skilled at protecting his hide and keeping his populace in fear so that he may rule unopposed for decades. He's managed to build an elaborate underground system of bunkers to protect himself using revenue from oil. And I'm sure he's mapped out a plan to escape safely (provided he is still alive and healthy enough to travel) with as much money as he can take with him.

He knows how to toy with the media to make himself look good to his followers and managed to evade the U.N. for 12 years.

 

[yowolabi]

It's a plausible theory, assuming Saddam is an idiot, like Morph said.

We have no evidence to suggest that he is. The Bush administration seems to think he's very clever and good at manipulating a situation, i.e. giving the inspectors just enough cooperation for them to give him a favorable report and keep world opinion on his side. He's also ruled a country for decades and become one of the world's richest men in the process.

Taking all this into consideration, I highly doubt he thinks that his country can survive in a war with the U.S., or that he won't want to know the truth so that he can run when the troops get to close.

 

[Martin]

Originally posted by: Chadder007

Originally posted by: Morph
You make one very big mistake in your reasoning, in fact a mistake that's very common around here. You assume that Saddam Hussein and his followers are stupid. They are not.

So you are assuming that they are smart? ...They are not. Then again,...you should know what happens when you "ass"ume.

If he was an idiot, he would have never lasted this long, in fact he would not have been able to seize power at all. You guys are simply too busy demonizing the enemy to look at the situation objectively.

 

[RyanM]

I am not suggesting Saddam isn't anything other than a very intelligent dictator, especially skilled at deception and switch and bait.

I don't see how my theory requires him to be as idiotic as the people waving signs that tell me to "Give Peach a Chance" [sic].

An intelligent leader can still have the wool unwittingly pulled over his eyes by yes-men eager to please their master. He is not going to be out in the open if he's alive - He'll be underground, or in a heavily camoflauged compound isolated from the rest of the city. Regardless of whether he has windows, a view of Baghdad certainly isn't a picture of the war - He will HAVE to rely on the intelligence reports provided to him by those below him in the food chain.

These are people that have had their colleagues, possibly even friends and family, tortured, executed, or threatened - They equate defying Saddam with death. They also would form a subconscious link between dissapointing him and the same end result - And they'll be hesitant, even unwilling, to give him an accurate report of the battle.

He probably doesn't even realize that his own regulars need to be coerced into fighting by having the lives of their families threatened - At this point, after years of being under his thumb, his lietenants don't NEED to be told to get their soldiers in gear. They'll do it without a command, because that might make Saddam happy, and may lead to them being favored.

He's no doubt smart. Cunning? Absolutely. Viscious? Without a doubt.

But I'll bet dollars to donuts he suffers from the worst information deficit because of his methods of running the country over the past 30 years.

 

[OFFascist]

Originally posted by: Morph
You make one very big mistake in your reasoning, in fact a mistake that's very common around here. You assume that Saddam Hussein and his followers are stupid. They are not.

You are correct, they are just inept.

 

[RyanM]

::snicker::

Well, the man has made some "miscalculations," as one news article put it. Chief among them - Putting his faith in the ability of a bunch of fromage-quaffing snobs to convince the world we should continue treating him with kid gloves. That was pretty funny really. Didn't he realize that France doesn't matter anymore?

Ah well. Anything that's good for a laugh or three is peachy in my book.

 

[Loralon]

Originally posted by: MachFive
I am not suggesting Saddam isn't anything other than a very intelligent dictator, especially skilled at deception and switch and bait.

I don't see how my theory requires him to be as idiotic as the people waving signs that tell me to "Give Peach a Chance" [sic].

An intelligent leader can still have the wool unwittingly pulled over his eyes by yes-men eager to please their master. ... <snipped> ...

I would have to agree. Logically, even if we assume that Saddam and all of his closest advisors and generals are intelligent people, that doesn't necessarily invalidate your argument. It isn't a necessary condition that Saddam and his cronies are stupid for the stated argument to hold water.

 

[RyanM]

Thanks for the backup. That's the point I was trying to get across. Intelligent != infallible, and even the most intelligent people are prone to stubborn beliefs and misguided moves, just as the rest of the world is.

 

[DeeKnow]

even though you may hate his guts, you have to admit Saddam Hussein is a sharp sonofabitch ... you don't rule a place like Iraq for 30 years by being dumb... he is also an ex-soldier so he knows a big gun when he sees one. of course he knows he'll get his ass handed to him in pieces if he were ever stupid enough to try and face off the US , but he aint stupid enough to do that... he's going to try and ride this out with lies, deception, trickery and lotsa cannon fodder - he isn't short of that... he wont blink before he lets 10,000 iraqis die, but does the western world have the nerves to take that ??

I'd like to see him hanged in public, but i wouldn't underestimate him. i think the western media are naive to think as low of him as they mostly do

 

[dudleydocker]

hopefully he's dead and all this doesn't matter.