Its bad, if indeed its 2%. SARS, was 10% mortality rate, IIRC and MERS was 30%, but
there were far less cases/infections.
Influenza is 0.1% mortality but still, 35,000,000 infections means it still kills 35,000 people in the US.
Its bad, if indeed its 2%. SARS, was 10% mortality rate, IIRC and MERS was 30%, butSo earlier today I did some calcs with the Johns Hopkins coronavirus dashboard.
Dead / (dead + recovered) * 100
for the worst affected Chinese province it worked out to a 12.9% fatality rate
for the rest of China and the world it worked out to a 1.54% fatality rate.
it looks like with proper treatment the fatality rate can be brought down.
I’ve tried to math it a bit but come up short... for instance what is the disease progression? How long after infection do you know if you are gonna beat it? Whats the longest running infected/sick? I see a lot of unknowns ... maybe you guys have more info?So earlier today I did some calcs with the Johns Hopkins coronavirus dashboard.
Dead / (dead + recovered) * 100
for the worst affected Chinese province it worked out to a 12.9% fatality rate
for the rest of China and the world it worked out to a 1.54% fatality rate.
it looks like with proper treatment the fatality rate can be brought down.
We simply do not have the data to come to any high quality conclusions. This is a case where we won't really know until it's over. We can speculate, but not much more.I’ve tried to math it a bit but come up short... for instance what is the disease progression? How long after infection do you know if you are gonna beat it? Whats the longest running infected/sick? I see a lot of unknowns ... maybe you guys have more info?
Some things should be quantifiable, like how many still sick after 7 days 14 days 21 days etc... but cant find the data...We simply do not have the data to come to any high quality conclusions. This is a case where we won't really know until it's over. We can speculate, but not much more.
If often comes down to "how generalizable is this data?" and right now, the answer is not necessarily at all.Some things should be quantifiable, like how many still sick after 7 days 14 days 21 days etc... but cant find the data...
And yet, like almost every other time this has happened for the last 4-5 years there will be an almost complete recovery the next day. At least 600 points back into the green.
My wife and I are both sitting totally in cash since we liquidated our employer 401k's and moved them to Vanguard. Vanguard just puts the funds into a money market acct until you invest it into funds. Trying to decide how long I sit out with the complete and total unknown that the next 10 months of US politics and economy are going to be. :/
Absolutely this, particularly if you're young, now is not the time change course. Keep buying.Plus @hal2kilo
While I'm no pro investor, I'd be careful with not participating in the market and hatred of Trump skew investment decisions if you don't need all that cash soon.
It's certainly good to hold some cash in hand to be able to seize opportunities, I would still remember the old adage that it's very difficult to time the markets, and you're most likely to miss and cost yourself returns.
On one hand we have a lot of uncertainty and we're likely in a global recession, on the other interest rates are extremely low globally, tax rates are low, Trump surrendered on the stupid test was, and there is a lot of money floating around looking for an investment home and not finding much better than the stock market.
That fact isn't changing, so I'm expecting a period of increased volatility and some buying opportunities.
Even a simple sp500 index fund returned 30+% last year. The last 10 years have been amazing for my retirement accounts.
I'm continuing my contributions and buying.
If panic subsides, then market continues back up, if things go tits up, let's hope Trump gets blamed, loses re-election and market will eventually recover over time.
Absolutely this, particularly if you're young, now is not the time change course. Keep buying.
Proper treatment is hard when the hospitals are completely over ran and medical staff are bring infected at a high rate.So earlier today I did some calcs with the Johns Hopkins coronavirus dashboard.
Dead / (dead + recovered) * 100
for the worst affected Chinese province it worked out to a 12.9% fatality rate
for the rest of China and the world it worked out to a 1.54% fatality rate.
it looks like with proper treatment the fatality rate can be brought down.
This is the sad truth. The death rate shoots up once the medical system is overwhelmed. The unfortunate truth is with something like this you want to be among the first to get it in an area before the system is overwhelmed or at the end when effective treatments are in place.Proper treatment is hard when the hospitals are completely over ran and medical staff are bring infected at a high rate.
And yet, like almost every other time this has happened for the last 4-5 years there will be an almost complete recovery the next day. At least 600 points back into the green.
Yeah I had hope at start of day. I don't believe this will last for any appreciable amount of time. Days not weeks.So maybe not this time, down another 500+ so far today.
Yeah I had hope at start of day. I don't believe this will last for any appreciable amount of time. Days not weeks.
Who knows. This could become Trump's Katrina. I hope not. No one knows the future.I wonder how long until Trump breaks out his sharpie and the CDC is forced to proclaim that the coronavirus will never show up in the US.
An ~8% decline in less than 2 days leads me to believe that there's more rattling the markets than just the coronavirus.I wonder how long until Trump breaks out his sharpie and the CDC is forced to proclaim that the coronavirus will never show up in the US.
Ground floor baby and no windows.Your office is on the 4th floor or lower, right?
Yea, oil is below $50 dollars. Lack of demand. I wonder how much air travel is down. Anyway, I'm watching my senior high school class president Tyler Mathison on CNBC delivering all this wonderful news.An ~8% decline in less than 2 days leads me to believe that there's more rattling the markets than just the coronavirus.
Who knows. This could become Trump's Katrina. I hope not. No one knows the future.