News Dow bouncing around -1000

[SteveGrabowski]

Ooh boy, as soon as the 15 minute break ended and trading resumed the dow kept tanking.

 

[cytg111]

Trading halted, but 2,124 points left to go before we rewind the DJI back to January 20, 2017. I pray it doesn’t happen because I can’t imagine the meltdown (stroke?) our fearless leader would have.

Funny thing is this is the first time he actually had to defend the economy from something else... and he “just a flu”’d it right out of the gate. Incompetensus Maximus.

 

[cytg111]

Ooh boy, as soon as the 15 minute break ended and trading resumed the dow kept tanking.

Its bloody murder right now!!!

 

[IronWing]

At this rate Trump will own all ten of the worst market days in history (pointwise).

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Nothing has even gotten bad in the US outside of Seattle. WTF is the market going to do when we're Italy in three weeks?

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Nothing has even gotten bad in the US outside of Seattle. WTF is the market going to do when we're Italy in three weeks?

It's going to depend a lot on what the response from our government is. If it's continuing what we're doing, it's going to be very bad. If an adult steps up and takes the reins, we might flatline another ~10% down from where we are until recovery is made.

 

[Dulanic]

Nothing has even gotten bad in the US outside of Seattle. WTF is the market going to do when we're Italy in three weeks?

That's kind of obvious, there is so much uncertainty and uncertainty causes panic. Banning flights from Europe doesn't do anything to address this. And we don't really know the scope of this so far because we haven't even been testing nearly as much as we could have been.

 

[Vic]

Let's do some quick math. The NBA just suspended its season with about 18 games left. I don't know the exact number of scheduled games left, but 30 teams times 18 games, playing each other, so about 270 games (is that right?), times ~20k fans per game at say $60 each, is $324,000,000 in ticket sales. Lost. And that's a low estimate IMO. Then there's vendors, concessions, parking, uber, the restaurants and bars the fans would have gone to before and after the games, airlines and hotels, etc. And the loss of TV revenue! Overall impact to the economy has to be well over a billion dollars. Probably twice that really. And that's not taking into account the loss of the playoffs, which has to be at least that much over again. And then there's all the employees who might get laid off, and the ripple effects from that..

Now multiply that everywhere you see similar closures, and the impact is simply staggering.

 

[ponyo]

Nothing has even gotten bad in the US outside of Seattle. WTF is the market going to do when we're Italy in three weeks?

That's when the market bottoms.

 

[herm0016]

That's when the market bottoms.

that's when i dump my $13.00 in cash into the market!

 

[JSt0rm]

I changed my mind, I think the bottom might be 16-18k now. I don’t think it will go any lower because trump will be voted out of office by then.

16 to 18 is only 2 days away

 

[blackangst1]

Nothing has even gotten bad in the US outside of Seattle. WTF is the market going to do when we're Italy in three weeks?

Its not the actual virus the market is responding to. Its the fact China is essentially closed, and businesses cant get their goods. No goods, nothing to sell. I know thats a broad overview, but its really the reason the market is crashing.

 

[JSt0rm]

Its not the actual virus the market is responding to. Its the fact China is essentially closed, and businesses cant get their goods. No goods, nothing to sell. I know thats a broad overview, but its really the reason the market is crashing.

its also responding to trumps non response to the actual issue.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Its not the actual virus the market is responding to. Its the fact China is essentially closed, and businesses cant get their goods. No goods, nothing to sell. I know thats a broad overview, but its really the reason the market is crashing.

I mean, the potential for a few million deaths might be tweaking the market somewhat as well.

 

[JSt0rm]

I mean, the potential for a few million deaths might be tweaking the market somewhat as well.

not if it makes his god trump look bad.

 

[IronWing]

16 to 18 is only 2 days away

My boss and I had this very discussion this morning. "I've been thinking I'll get back in at 18K." "Oh, so tomorrow then?"

 

[dawp]

Its not the actual virus the market is responding to. Its the fact China is essentially closed, and businesses cant get their goods. No goods, nothing to sell. I know thats a broad overview, but its really the reason the market is crashing.

don't cha think trump's response, or the lack of a competent response to the crisis might affect wall street just a little?

 

[blackangst1]

don't cha think trump's response, or the lack of a competent response to the crisis might affect wall street just a little?

Of course! In this session there are likely several reasons. But what I said is the biggest factor.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

At this point we have lost nearly 30% of the Dow Jones in a month and shit has not even come close to getting real with SARSCov2 yet. Are we going to lose another half of the market when people start dying off en mass in a month or two?

 

[Paratus]

Of course! In this session there are likely several reasons. But what I said is the biggest factor.

due to the lack of supporting information for your position, your noted biases and availability of contradicting information I’m going to say you are wrong in your position.

• Chinese manufacturing is beginning to improve so today’s drop is most likely not caused by lack of Chinese widgets as the markets are forward looking and the current conditions are priced in. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-virus-spread-may-slow-recovery-idUSKBN20W0RO
• Today’s drop is directly after Trumps European travel ban which he botched launching last night. There’s little scientific rationale behind the ban and he incompetently led everyone to believe it included cargo and repatriation of US citizens starting another panic on Wall Street. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-march-12-013620137.html

The largest contribution to today’s drop is the poor handling done by our administration.

 

[Wreckem]

Nothing has even gotten bad in the US outside of Seattle. WTF is the market going to do when we're Italy in three weeks?

If what’s happening in Italy happens here the bottom will easily be 10000 or lower.

In parts of Italy they are at the point where they are having to make judgment calls on who gets treatment and who is left to die because the healthcare system cannot handle all of the ICU cases.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

It's going to depend a lot on what the response from our government is. If it's continuing what we're doing, it's going to be very bad. If an adult steps up and takes the reins, we might flatline another ~10% down from where we are until recovery is made.

500,000 Americans dead is the conservative estimate as this drags over us for months. There is no way we're talking recovery any time soon.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

If what’s happening in Italy happens here the bottom will easily be 10000 or lower.

In parts of Italy they are at the point where they are having to make judgment calls on who gets treatment and who is left to die because the healthcare system cannot handle all of the ICU cases.

It's not if. It's when.

 

[Paratus]

500,000 Americans dead is the conservative estimate as this drags over us for months. There is no way we're talking recovery any time soon.

The markets are forward looking. Panic makes them price towards the worst case.

If the rate of increases in the number of cases continues to increase their panic will be justified and the markets will continue to drop.

However if the rate slows and cases begin to flatline expect the recovery to begin shortly there after.


See how Chinese cases have flatlined? Their manufacturing is slowly coming back now. The rest of the world is still ramping up however.

If the rate slows soon expect a mostly full recovery. If it takes awhile expect a couple of years until fully recovered.

 

[Jhhnn]

Of course! In this session there are likely several reasons. But what I said is the biggest factor.

Gawd. The need to self isolate kills demand for all sorts of goods & services, particularly for seniors. Haircut? Shoe shopping? Eating out? Concert? Travel? Convention? Sporting events? It'll wait until things calm down.