Chinese cases flatlined likely because of quarantines. They go back to work and it's likely exponential growth again.
The markets are forward looking. Panic makes them price towards the worst case.
If the rate of increases in the number of cases continues to increase their panic will be justified and the markets will continue to drop.
However if the rate slows and cases begin to flatline expect the recovery to begin shortly there after.
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See how Chinese cases have flatlined? Their manufacturing is slowly coming back now. The rest of the world is still ramping up however.
If the rate slows soon expect a mostly full recovery. If it takes awhile expect a couple of years until fully recovered.
Its not the actual virus the market is responding to. Its the fact China is essentially closed, and businesses cant get their goods. No goods, nothing to sell. I know thats a broad overview, but its really the reason the market is crashing.
Chinese cases flatlined likely because of quarantines. They go back to work and it's likely exponential growth again.
Nothing has even gotten bad in the US outside of Seattle. WTF is the market going to do when we're Italy in three weeks?
due to the lack of supporting information for your position, your noted biases and availability of contradicting information I’m going to say you are wrong in your position.
The largest contribution to today’s drop is the poor handling done by our administration.
- Chinese manufacturing is beginning to improve so today’s drop is most likely not caused by lack of Chinese widgets as the markets are forward looking and the current conditions are priced in. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-virus-spread-may-slow-recovery-idUSKBN20W0RO
- Today’s drop is directly after Trumps European travel ban which he botched launching last night. There’s little scientific rationale behind the ban and he incompetently led everyone to believe it included cargo and repatriation of US citizens starting another panic on Wall Street. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-march-12-013620137.html
Something to think about—if you’re anticipating a tax refund and haven’t already filed—get off your ass and e-file today.
not entirely. They’ve learned how to detect and isolate cases by now. So it won’t be able to spread as fast and pockets of infection will be stopped.
The same thing will happen in the US once the local health orgs and business get a handle on things. Locally, county health services were refusing to test people who came back from Italy and came down with mild upper respiratory to infections. This week they are loosening restrictions on testing. Businesses are also pushing telework and cancel travel. Eventually these efforts will turn the curve enough that it the medical establishment should not be overwhelmed by cases.
When that becomes obvious expect the markets to recover.
my opinion.
Oops, my bad. Trump already owns the top twelve and fifteen of the worst twenty.At this rate Trump will own all ten of the worst market days in history (pointwise).
Because work/financial institutions often make mistakes and then have to issue corrected tax forms. In the past 5 years I've had 2 instances when I've been given corrected tax forms. If your refund is negligible it may make sense to wait a little to make sure everybody has sent you correct info so that you don't have to refile.I don’t understand people who expect a refund waiting to file taxes. When I used to get refunds I field the first day filing was available. Now that I always owe, I wait until the last day to file.
Today Hubei province has fatality rate of 5.7% (dead/(dead+recovered) Italy is at 44%.China’s cases have flatlined the issue is no one outside of the Chinese government will know how bad it really when they started shutting things down and restricting travel. Italy and Milan in particular shows they China’s data was incomplete or falsified... Covid-19s death toll in China is way higher than they state.
But they are starting to recover. I know a guy who was supposed to start a 3 year contract in China at the end of Jan. They postponed his flight.
He flew to Tawian and then to Shanghai last night and today. He will be in a two week quarantine in Shanghai before being allowed to travel to the city he will live for three years but by all accounts China flatened the curve and everything is getting better. The rest of the world is about to get a dose of what happened at Wuhan before it gets better in the rest of the world.
All things point to US are 1 Week behind EU, so shit might hit the fan as early as a week from now. It might not be as bad as Italy but still.
500,000 Americans dead is the conservative estimate as this drags over us for months. There is no way we're talking recovery any time soon.
I know who slept through statistics class!How do we go from roughly 5K deaths globally, to 500K Americans dead? Unless this thing mutates in a hurry this is fear mongering nonsense.
How do we go from roughly 5K deaths globally, to 500K Americans dead? Unless this thing mutates in a hurry this is fear mongering nonsense.
Just fucking careening down now.
Yes, we all need to keep the phrase "logarithmic growth" top of mind.
It was just on 2/27 when The Dotard said there were 15 cases, going to zero quickly, but it was all a hoax ....to where we are today with thousands of cases (and likely many more as we aren't testing in large scale yet.)
We'll be to hundreds of thousands of cases in short order, then to potentially millions of we don't get our heads out of our asses.
Unfortunately it helped for all of about an hour, from the looks of things.Fed to corporate America: "Oh dear, it looks like you blew the longest economic expansion in history on pornography, sugar water, and bombs. Here's a trillion bucks to get you back on your feet."
not entirely. They’ve learned how to detect and isolate cases by now. So it won’t be able to spread as fast and pockets of infection will be stopped.
The same thing will happen in the US once the local health orgs and business get a handle on things. Locally, county health services were refusing to test people who came back from Italy and came down with mild upper respiratory to infections. This week they are loosening restrictions on testing. Businesses are also pushing telework and cancel travel. Eventually these efforts will turn the curve enough that it the medical establishment should not be overwhelmed by cases.
When that becomes obvious expect the markets to recover.
my opinion.
News now saying $1.5T injection planned. Since it didn't work, can the Fed just drop the whole thing now?Unfortunately it helped for all of about an hour, from the looks of things.