Dow tumbles more than 800 points. How ugly will this get?

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Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Don't take off your seat belt, the ride has only begun.

Pretty much. There was plenty of liquidity in finance prior to the tax cuts. That's why the price of money was low. Money is a commodity. Adding more pushes yields even lower, unless investors take on more risk. Which is what's happened. It's hot money chasing returns. CLO's are like the CDO's of the GWB era & corporate junk bonds of the 80's.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...5184de-817a-11e9-95a9-e2c830afe24f_story.html
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,882
34,841
136
Trump basically just told the press that everyone that the current trade situation is fine and that a resolution soon is unlikely but that doesn't matter because "we're making so much money off tariffs"

also:


Collateral damage is starting to pile up in the global economy which was already slowing. Assuming the US and China further escalate, which seems very likely, it doesn't take like a smart person to see what's probably coming.

The programs Trump has been using to prop up ag are also closing in on their fiscal limits and I'm pretty doubtful that congress would authorize more. Drawing a ton more attention to how the farmers are getting helped out so much is politically not good and they worry it could lead to the broad questioning of farms subsidies.
 
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SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,218
4,446
136
Collateral damage is starting to pile up in the global economy which was already slowing. Assuming the US and China further escalate, which seems very likely, it doesn't take like a smart person to see what's probably coming.

I looks like China's strategy is now going to be to just keep escalating until the 2020 election to force Trump to either back down or kill his chances in the election. They are going after him personally.
 

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
17,788
6,040
136
I looks like China's strategy is now going to be to just keep escalating until the 2020 election to force Trump to either back down or kill his chances in the election. They are going after him personally.
Good on China if they're going after Trump to scuttle his election chances, maybe it'll balance out Russia's help to keep him in office.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,882
34,841
136
I looks like China's strategy is now going to be to just keep escalating until the 2020 election to force Trump to either back down or kill his chances in the election. They are going after him personally.

Lol Navarro called the WSJ a "communist paper" when they said that his economic and trade polices were going to drive us into a recession.

Anybody believing this admin's claims about how things are going to go deserves unlimited ridicule. China isn't going to cave.
 
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Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
I looks like China's strategy is now going to be to just keep escalating until the 2020 election to force Trump to either back down or kill his chances in the election. They are going after him personally.

As well they should. We delegate enormous power to the office of the President, which Trump abuses egregiously. If you think She who must not be named would have set out down this path you're out of your mind.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,653
10,517
136
Pretty much. There was plenty of liquidity in finance prior to the tax cuts. That's why the price of money was low. Money is a commodity. Adding more pushes yields even lower, unless investors take on more risk. Which is what's happened. It's hot money chasing returns. CLO's are like the CDO's of the GWB era & corporate junk bonds of the 80's.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...5184de-817a-11e9-95a9-e2c830afe24f_story.html
It was hilarious yesterday watching the pundits on CNBC whistling past the graveyard and saying that the numbers were proof that this is just temporary, and a good buying opportunity. I seem to remember similar sentiments around 2007. Too stupid to realize that everyones fortunes depend on the tweet of the day.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,543
27,851
136
If Trump isn't playing the market and making bank on his market manipulations, he's an idiot.
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,218
4,446
136
As well they should. We delegate enormous power to the office of the President, which Trump abuses egregiously. If you think She who must not be named would have set out down this path you're out of your mind.

I agree. Trump made it personal by making it all about himself. Even if some other administrations had decided to have some form of trade war with China (I doubt many would have been dumb enough to try it with tariffs) they would have done it all though the diplomatic channels and a negotiation team. Trump on the other hand lets everyone know that only he makes the decisions.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Lol Navarro called the WSJ a "communist paper" when they said that his economic and trade polices were going to drive us into a recession.

Anybody believing this admin's claims about how things are going to go deserves unlimited ridicule. China isn't going to cave.

Navarro does decision based fact making. Trump decides, then Navarro makes up alternative facts in support, just like Kellyanne.

Calling the WSJ Communists is desperate denial of the worst kind.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,823
49,521
136
Lol Navarro called the WSJ a "communist paper" when they said that his economic and trade polices were going to drive us into a recession.

Anybody believing this admin's claims about how things are going to go deserves unlimited ridicule. China isn't going to cave.

Exactly. As we keep saying China has no incentive to give Trump anything. Trump can’t be trusted to uphold any deal so there’s no point in making concessions to him. End of story.
 

blackangst1

Lifer
Feb 23, 2005
22,914
2,359
126
Dollar cost averaging FTW. Im up 13.7% for the year. With the current economy (low unemployment, wages slightly up, and low interest rates) I dont see this as anything but a small correction.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
You guys can watch the Dow. My eyes are firmly glued on the Yields. We are very to the 10 years dropping below the 2. Closed half the gap we had today.

What we need now is a nice economic shock, like starting a war in the Persian Gulf or intensifying the trade war with China. The big boys will gleefully clean out every 401K in America.
 

bbhaag

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2011
6,761
2,141
146
The Dow is basically even from a year ago, do you consider that winning?
I believe you missed the point of what he was trying to say. The OP was in an "OMG the market is DOWN 800!!!OMG." state of mind and what s0me0nesmind1 made the point that while the market started out down for the week it eventually evened out. The OP was being a bit hysterical if you ask me.

As far as your question goes the market is always in a state of ups and downs but if you look at the long term outlooks you will see that the rate of return is always positive. A one year outlook like you mentioned is not long term.
 

alien42

Lifer
Nov 28, 2004
12,668
3,067
136
I believe you missed the point of what he was trying to say. The OP was in an "OMG the market is DOWN 800!!!OMG." state of mind and what s0me0nesmind1 made the point that while the market started out down for the week it eventually evened out. The OP was being a bit hysterical if you ask me.

As far as your question goes the market is always in a state of ups and downs but if you look at the long term outlooks you will see that the rate of return is always positive. A one year outlook like you mentioned is not long term.

I suggest you re-read the OP. The point of this thread is that Trump's trade war with China is helping propel us into the next recession. there is nothing hysterical with that assessment.
 

bbhaag

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2011
6,761
2,141
146
I suggest you re-read the OP. The point of this thread is that Trump's trade war with China is helping propel us into the next recession. there is nothing hysterical with that assessment.
How so? The OP links were a bit on the hysteria side. I mean the second link he posted is based on the opinion of one analyst.
 
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