ECCp-109 When will we reach 58,421,659 DPs?

[Joe O]

My guess is 9/17/02 2:37 AM.

Let's everyone post a guess and see who comes closest.

 

[networkman]

I'll guess some time after we reach 58,421,658 DPs.

 

[Evadman]

Originally posted by: networkman
I'll guess some time after we reach 58,421,658 DPs.

*smack*

 

[Confused]

Originally posted by: networkman
I'll guess some time after we reach 58,421,658 DPs.

And some time before we hit 58,421,660 DPs

 

[joinT]

so it's settled then?

 

[Joe O]

58,421,659 is the original expected number of DPs at which the probability of there being a shared value(collision/solution) equals or is greater than 0.5 (i.e., chances are at least even that the next DP submitted will match a DP already submitted that started from a different point). When Chris has these two DPs with different starting points, he can compute the values of the eliptic curve for this challenge.

 

[kmmatney]

November 10th.

 

[Joe O]

Well, as of the NOON update, ECCp-109 has reached 50,026,043 DPs. This has taken 486.5 days.

 

[Joe O]

Come on people. Doesn't anyone else want to hazard a guess?

kmmatney, I'd be interested to know why you picked that date. I really think that it will be in September some time, most likely between the 17th and the 23rd, unless we have a real massive slowdown! Do you know something that I don't?

 

[Joe O]

I'm changing my guess to 9/17/02 19:40 (7:40PM for those who don't like the 24 hour clock).

 

[kmmatney]

Actually, I picked November 10th as the date when the probability of success would be at 50% (using the newer probability calculations), which would be somewhere around 80 million DPs.

 

[Joe O]

My guess for 80,000,000 DPs would be 12/16/02 11:55 AM.

 

[Mardeth]

Add 13.37 seconds to that and date and you be pretty close. (Can anyone guess why I picked that number? )

 

[paralazarguer]

I'm going to hazard a guess that it'll be a lot sooner than you think. See this thread Lots of new hardware. With network man putting some steel towards it, and me as a new member, that's already an improvement....I give it until next week

 

[Orange Kid]

sometime tomorrow

 

[networkman]

I did put some ummph into the project for the "race" with Florian, but I've since moved the machines back to SETI where they'll likely stay for quite a while.

 

[Joe O]

Looks like we picked up the pace by 12 hours. I'm now predicting 9/17/02 7:36 AM

BUT it could be sooner! DPC will probably start dumping to regain 1st place. As of the 1800 update there are only 136,981 DP to go.

 

[Joe O]

As of the 0600 update there were only 21,224 DP to go.

 

[MereMortal]

Actually, 58421659 was not the a priori expected number of DPs for a solution. That number was based on the number of expected points exp(54.8). Unfortunately, decimal accuracy in an exponent can change things quite a bit. 54.8 was rounded(??) from the true number 54.735616...., resulting in a DP estimate exp(54.8-29) = 58421659 = 53% probability.

A more accurate number for the a priori probability of 50% is DP = 55871794, which we passed some time ago.


But if you like predicting when we will reach a random number of DPs, please, by all means be my guest.

 

[Joe O]

Actually Chris wrote:

However, it seems that the iteration function in use now does not have this property, which puts the expected number of needed points to 2^{54.5}sqrt(pi/2) ~ 2^{54.8} or 2^{25.8} ~ 58 million distinguished points.

and subsequently posted the number I used.

 

[GoodRevrnd]

Originally posted by: Mardeth
Add 13.37 seconds to that and date and you be pretty close. (Can anyone guess why I picked that number? )

l4m3r

 

[Orange Kid]

and we're there

Project Statistics
Tue Sep 17 12:57:09 2002



(GMT - 5:00 / US - IN)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The basic units of work are Distinguished Points (DP)
One DP represents approximately 52 minutes of work on a PII 400Mhz.


Total distinguished points : 58,493,360
Total user accounts: 8793
During the previous 6.01 hours there were:
New distinguished points: 92,925
New users : 11