Actually, 58421659 was not the a priori expected number of DPs for a solution. That number was based on the number of expected points exp(54.8). Unfortunately, decimal accuracy in an exponent can change things quite a bit. 54.8 was rounded(??) from the true number 54.735616...., resulting in a DP estimate exp(54.8-29) = 58421659 = 53% probability.
A more accurate number for the a priori probability of 50% is DP = 55871794, which we passed some time ago.
But if you like predicting when we will reach a random number of DPs, please, by all means be my guest.