Economic `Armageddon' predicted

[HeroOfPellinor]

Well, once the dollar gets real low, we'll become the affordable place to manufacture goods and import from and then you and Dave can have back all those sweet sweet labor jobs you've been bemoaning the loss of. Woohoo.

Let's see you complain about the high price of gas, and then complain about low WalMart prices. You complain about lost jobs, and then you complain about the low dollar which helps jobs. The only thing consistent about what you type is that you complain.

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: HeroOfPellinor
Well, once the dollar gets real low, we'll become the affordable place to manufacture goods and import from and then you and Dave can have back all those sweet sweet labor jobs you've been bemoaning the loss of. Woohoo.

Let's see you complain about the high price of gas, and then complain about low WalMart prices. You complain about lost jobs, and then you complain about the low dollar which helps jobs. The only thing consistent about what you type is that you complain.

Actually manufacturing jobs go to where the cheapest labour is...unless you are willing to compete with china, russia and india...once the jobs are gone...they are gone...

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: HeroOfPellinor
Well, once the dollar gets real low, we'll become the affordable place to manufacture goods and import from and then you and Dave can have back all those sweet sweet labor jobs you've been bemoaning the loss of. Woohoo.

Let's see you complain about the high price of gas, and then complain about low WalMart prices. You complain about lost jobs, and then you complain about the low dollar which helps jobs. The only thing consistent about what you type is that you complain.

So how low will the dollar have to go before our wages match those of Indonesia and China? That is the manufacturing competition. You just don't start and stop making things based on the value of the dollar. It would have to take a nosedive, stay there for the long term, and require hundreds of billions of dollars in capital outlay during a depressed economy to START producing.

There is going to be another Depression one day. Forever is a damned long time to not have one. Is it a year or twenty away? No clue.

 

[XZeroII]

It's been predicted for decades. If it happens, this guy is a visionary. If not, he'll make the same prediction again in a few years after everyone has forgotten about this prediction.

 

[Stunt]

Maybe you can refresh my memory with the last time the US had a trade deficit as high as it is, a debt as big as it is, inflation rising so fast, money dumped into gold and forign investments as fast, US dollar dropping fast.

I agree you can find all these points separately far worse. But with all these coming together...one cannot exclude the facts. And some proffessionals are realizing this...this is not a scare tactic.

Why would investors get out of the US...because they are protecting themselves for what they believe is true.

Find me some prominant private investors, ie. investment bankers and the like...investing IN the US...they we'll talk...otherwise you are in denile.

I have my facts, show me yours.

 

[flexy]

iin my humble opinion,

the "enonomic amageddon" for this country already started....maybe years ago.

) high unemployment
) high number of people not insured or unable to afford proper healthcare
) growing and very high number of working, but poor (sub $13k/anno) people.
(This rate rose 89% from 1989 to 1999 as i read in the paper today)
) SS down the drain
) more spending on wars
) outsourcing
) companies going in bancruptcy or doing pretty BAD, or say "we are doing better" (after they ousourced to india)
All/MOST of the big companies in my area Motorola, United Airlines, ATA, 3COM, American Airlines and MANY MANY more i forgot
do really bad or are about to go out of business

You cannot scare me with the "economic armageddon" its already HERE.

 

[LunarRay]

Lets see if this makes any sense....

In order for a anyone to invest in the US investment vehicles they have to see that the return is greater than the alternative investment. If Euro denominated investments (having the same beta as the US investments) return 4% but also strengthen against other currency denominations beyond the point where break even is expected to exist it makes little sense not to invest in Euro denominated issues. But... what Euro denominated demand is there... is there enough to provide that incentive? I don't see it. I think I see that while many commodities are denominated in US dollars holding dollars makes little sense if it is dropping.. but the alternative just is not there.. no supply incentive.. I don't think.. This will force Oil and the other commodities to be denominated in the more stable and secure currency.. the Euro! Then the supply and demand for the Euro will increase.. and the US will be in a big bucket of poo poo.......

edit... what I mean by supply and demand incentives is: Who needs the intake of money for use in investments in Europe... are they in the same economic need as the US..? Are there intrinsic assets that are being depleted? Is the current supply of investment capital sufficient to meet the needs in Europe? I think it is.

 

[XZeroII]

Originally posted by: Stunt
Maybe you can refresh my memory with the last time the US had a trade deficit as high as it is, a debt as big as it is, inflation rising so fast, money dumped into gold and forign investments as fast, US dollar dropping fast.

I agree you can find all these points separately far worse. But with all these coming together...one cannot exclude the facts. And some proffessionals are realizing this...this is not a scare tactic.

Why would investors get out of the US...because they are protecting themselves for what they believe is true.

Find me some prominant private investors, ie. investment bankers and the like...investing IN the US...they we'll talk...otherwise you are in denile.

I have my facts, show me yours.

I have thousands of facts. but that doesn't mean that the we are looking at an economic armogeddon. That's like saying that we are all going to die from a massive flood because it rained today and rain is wet. I know this because I saw an ant drown in a puddle on my driveway. The facts are accurate, but they don't necessarily point to the conclusion made.

As I've said, people have been predicting this for decades. The average person is gullible enough to believe them every time.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: flexy
iin my humble opinion,

the "enonomic amageddon" for this country already started....maybe years ago.

) high unemployment
) high number of people not insured or unable to afford proper healthcare
) growing and very high number of working, but poor (sub $13k/anno) people.
(This rate rose 89% from 1989 to 1999 as i read in the paper today)
) SS down the drain
) more spending on wars
) outsourcing
) companies going in bancruptcy or doing pretty BAD, or say "we are doing better" (after they ousourced to india)
All/MOST of the big companies in my area Motorola, United Airlines, ATA, 3COM, American Airlines and MANY MANY more i forgot
do really bad or are about to go out of business

You cannot scare me with the "economic armageddon" its already HERE.

Too bad all of the things you listed above 51% of the Country feels is a good thing, you better like it.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Stunt
Maybe you can refresh my memory with the last time the US had a trade deficit as high as it is, a debt as big as it is, inflation rising so fast, money dumped into gold and forign investments as fast, US dollar dropping fast.

I agree you can find all these points separately far worse. But with all these coming together...one cannot exclude the facts. And some proffessionals are realizing this...this is not a scare tactic.

Why would investors get out of the US...because they are protecting themselves for what they believe is true.

Find me some prominant private investors, ie. investment bankers and the like...investing IN the US...they we'll talk...otherwise you are in denile.

I have my facts, show me yours.

Again, although these "professionals" are getting out of the U.S., 51% of the Country feels this is a good thing so what's your problem???

 

[XZeroII]

Originally posted by: flexy
iin my humble opinion,

the "enonomic amageddon" for this country already started....maybe years ago.

) high unemployment
WRONG
) high number of people not insured or unable to afford proper healthcare
WTF does that have to do with anything?
) growing and very high number of working, but poor (sub $13k/anno) people.
(This rate rose 89% from 1989 to 1999 as i read in the paper today)
Are these numbers including teenagers and college students? I bet so.
) SS down the drain
WTF are you talking about? SS brings in an excess of over $200 billion per year.
) more spending on wars
What does that have to do with anything
) outsourcing
There is no conclusive evidence yet as to whether this is a good or bad thing.
) companies going in bancruptcy or doing pretty BAD, or say "we are doing better" (after they ousourced to india)
All/MOST of the big companies in my area Motorola, United Airlines, ATA, 3COM, American Airlines and MANY MANY more i forgot
do really bad or are about to go out of business
I don't know what you're trying to get at here. Companies have been going out of business since the beginning of time. What ever happened to the big railroad monopolies that were unstoppable way back when? GONE! Because times changed and ushered in new eras.

You cannot scare me with the "economic armageddon" its already HERE.
You are already scared to death by media propeganda, why would you even be here now instead of hiding in your bomb shelter? Planet X is moving in to destroy us soon!

 

[alent1234]

Originally posted by: flexy
iin my humble opinion,

the "enonomic amageddon" for this country already started....maybe years ago.

) high unemployment
) high number of people not insured or unable to afford proper healthcare
) growing and very high number of working, but poor (sub $13k/anno) people.
(This rate rose 89% from 1989 to 1999 as i read in the paper today)
) SS down the drain
) more spending on wars
) outsourcing
) companies going in bancruptcy or doing pretty BAD, or say "we are doing better" (after they ousourced to india)
All/MOST of the big companies in my area Motorola, United Airlines, ATA, 3COM, American Airlines and MANY MANY more i forgot
do really bad or are about to go out of business

You cannot scare me with the "economic armageddon" its already HERE.

you must still be in school

i've been hearing about the economic doomsday for a long time. things were a lot worse in the late 1970's and early 1980's.

as far as your companies going doing poorly,
Motorola has always done poorly then found a nice product to make money and then started to go down the drain again. they have been doing it for decades.
3com got owned by cisco a long time ago
airlines never made any money, in their entire history. if you take all their earnings and losses for the last 50 years that they have existed you will see that they have lost money. all except for a few like Southwest and JetBlue. It has nothing to do with the economy, but because they can't run a business. that is what happens when you pay pilots $250k a year and crazy salaries to other employees and then your customers don't share your business plan. some really stupid union members are in for a shock when their pension checks will start coming in the next 10 years.


oh, and if you look at the Dow Jones industrial average from 100 years ago, only two companies are still around today. GE and 3M. fact of life is that 95% of all businesses will go out of business over time.

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: gutharius

Originally posted by: conjur

Originally posted by: GoPackGo
Like all things, this too shall pass

But what will be the damage and the consequences in the meantime?

Does it really matter?

If a hurricane is coming do you sit around and wonder which houses will be hit and which ones will not? No you get out of the way then make your way through it as best you can when the storm passes.

A bit easier to get one's person out of the way of a hurricane than it is to hedge against rising inflation or a devalued dollar.

 

[chess9]

I've been saying for a year that the rising deficits, weak dollar, and trade imbalance threaten our current low interest rates. Toss in oil going past $60 a barrel and you have disaster in the making.

Personally, I think the trade imbalance and rising deficit are more longish term problems. Oil prices rising will be the hammer that drives the recession, however. We need to make LARGE and OBVIOUS and VERY PUBLIC moves away from our dependence on OIL. There is a discussion just off the front page on this site about some old/new solar technology. We can significantly lessen our dependence on oil, but we have to have the WILL to do it and we needed to start 50 years ago. Better late than never? I hope so!

-Robert

 

[shiner]

Eh....so if they people in debt up to their eyeballs get screwed...serve em right. People need to learn to stop living beyond their means. I've said for at least 10 years that people were fvkcing themselves by living off credit cards. Having a mortgage is one thing....have 30k in credit card debt is another. The people doing that need to be taught a harsh lesson because obviously they have no common sense.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: shinerburke
Eh....so if they people in debt up to their eyeballs get screwed...serve em right. People need to learn to stop living beyond their means. I've said for at least 10 years that people were fvkcing themselves by living off credit cards. Having a mortgage is one thing....have 30k in credit card debt is another. The people doing that need to be taught a harsh lesson because obviously they have no common sense.

Wasn't it mentioned (in P&N I think) that if the US suffered a "collapse" in the money/financial markets, that the person with lots of debt would "in essence" be rewarded as the debt would be "worthless" and the investor would be punished as his assets would also be "worthless"?

Comments?

 

[shiner]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: shinerburke
Eh....so if they people in debt up to their eyeballs get screwed...serve em right. People need to learn to stop living beyond their means. I've said for at least 10 years that people were fvkcing themselves by living off credit cards. Having a mortgage is one thing....have 30k in credit card debt is another. The people doing that need to be taught a harsh lesson because obviously they have no common sense.

Wasn't it mentioned (in P&N I think) that if the US suffered a "collapse" in the money/financial markets, that the person with lots of debt would "in essence" be rewarded as the debt would be "worthless" and the investor would be punished as his assets would also be "worthless"?

Comments?

Most likely so......how do I feel about that? So be it....many of the CC companies are bottom feeding scum sucking predators that need a good kick to the crotch. Yes in the end the fault for running up debt lies with the morons who do it, but it wouldn't hurt my feelings to see the CC companies taught a lesson as well.

 

[chess9]

I agree with both of you, alhtough I hate the idea of the economy failing. I was honestly hoping for a nice bull market run for 2-3 years like we had in the mid-'90's. <sigh>

Anyway, we only carry about $1500 in credit card debt, max, at any one time because I'm a firm believer in CASH. Around the holidays my wife goes a little nuts with the budget-can you say 40 gig Ipod?-and the credit cards start climbing.

The credit card companies and the people with high balances are going to be in serious trouble if interest rates start puffing up next year. Combine that with job losses due to rising oil prices and you have trouble in paradise. I'm not predicting anything, just worrying out loud. The election is over and I want all my investments to perk up for awhile before I get out of the market for good.

-Robert

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: XZeroII

Originally posted by: Stunt
Maybe you can refresh my memory with the last time the US had a trade deficit as high as it is, a debt as big as it is, inflation rising so fast, money dumped into gold and forign investments as fast, US dollar dropping fast.

I agree you can find all these points separately far worse. But with all these coming together...one cannot exclude the facts. And some proffessionals are realizing this...this is not a scare tactic.

Why would investors get out of the US...because they are protecting themselves for what they believe is true.

Find me some prominant private investors, ie. investment bankers and the like...investing IN the US...they we'll talk...otherwise you are in denile.

I have my facts, show me yours.

I have thousands of facts. but that doesn't mean that the we are looking at an economic armogeddon. That's like saying that we are all going to die from a massive flood because it rained today and rain is wet. I know this because I saw an ant drown in a puddle on my driveway. The facts are accurate, but they don't necessarily point to the conclusion made.

As I've said, people have been predicting this for decades. The average person is gullible enough to believe them every time.

I'm not suggesting economic armageddon...i'm suggesting significant US economy fallout, like loosing its status as a superpower. Perhaps a depression like state. On;y time will tell though.

Your rain example is flawed as it doesn't take into account the facts. I can fix it for you.
It is more like:
-It's been raining everyday for 4years or more (deficits out of control, debt levels quite high, almost 70% gdp, dollar diving.)
-All the weathermen are predicting increased rain, some are even predicting 10% chance of flooding. (economists and proffessional investors - foreign investing and jumping to gold)
-The only people that are predicting no rain are the ones that have vacations planned (bush just expects things to right themselves for no reason), or people saying that it can only rain so long (playing the odds and not looking at the facts)
-Instead of leaving town as all the smart and rich people are doing...the average citizen is moving the family into the basement to hide from the potential flooding (insane personal debt levels.)

Now that is the situation you are looking at...not a little ant dying. There's being an optimist...but be realistic about it. Have to urge your government to take an active role.

There is no reason why your country should go into recession...but you have a man that seems determined to do so. Every one of his policies puts the country back. If it was truely a recession, Canada would be stuggling...and we are not...go back to the policy drawing board...maybe you cannot afford current tax levels, maybe you cannot afford private healthcare, maybe you cannot afford fighting wars.

 

[EDoG2K]

I won't claim to be an expert on the financial matters of the nation, but I here's how I see it. The US is sort of like a business in itself. Treating the United States as a business here is the situation we are facing:

We owe a lot of money. We are spending more money that we are taking in. We are going deeper into debt with no indication of slowing down our spending or increasing our income.

As businesses go, I would bet on a company doing business like that to fold, sooner, rather than later. We are in freefall without a parachute and 51% like it. oh well.

 

[shiner]

I love how some of you keep throwing out the "51% like it" comment. You of course fail to admit that this problem has been brewing for at least the last 10-12 years. Noooooo....that wouldn't fit in with your Bush bashing now would it.

Bottom line....this has zilch to do with who is President....

 

[LunarRay]

I think it would be informative to calculate just one aspect of the Credit Card interest rate jumps that have occurred over the latter part of the summer and are still going up.

I'm speaking in terms of the disposable income used to fuel or sustain the economic growth needs. The interest jump does a few things. The first is it lowers the 'credit worthiness score' that allows folks to purchase on credit or at rates that are more favorable. The interest collected does not fuel the economy because it is used to sustain the lender when the interest jump bankrupts the card holders who've over indulged.... the ones who helped last year's growth.

I've noticed that the money changers raise interest rates 500 basis points when the FED increases the discount rate 50. I also see that the amount of consumer credit card debt is insanely high per middle class house hold.

Everyone knows this, I'm sure but why do we continue to think that Conjur's hurricane is but a minor squall in the face of so large a weather front.. it is right there on the radar screen?

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: EDoG2K
I won't claim to be an expert on the financial matters of the nation, but I here's how I see it. The US is sort of like a business in itself. Treating the United States as a business here is the situation we are facing:

We owe a lot of money. We are spending more money that we are taking in. We are going deeper into debt with no indication of slowing down our spending or increasing our income.

As businesses go, I would bet on a company doing business like that to fold, sooner, rather than later. We are in freefall without a parachute and 51% like it. oh well.

If the US was a company, it would be on the brink of going under. I'd be hard pressed to find a company with the following data:

debt levels 420% of revenues.
losses of almost 30% of revenues.

just one company at these levels in its history would be surprising to see.

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: shinerburke
I love how some of you keep throwing out the "51% like it" comment. You of course fail to admit that this problem has been brewing for at least the last 10-12 years. Noooooo....that wouldn't fit in with your Bush bashing now would it.

Bottom line....this has zilch to do with who is President....

Raise taxes...It's obvious the cuts are not stimulating the economy. Roll them back then you'll at least get the deficit out of your way. Then maybe people won't pull out as fast. Oh and raise interest rates, it limits personal borrowing, and slows inflation. The US is far behind the curve on that. UK and Canada have consistantly been raising interest rates.

 

[shiner]

Originally posted by: Stunt

Originally posted by: shinerburke
I love how some of you keep throwing out the "51% like it" comment. You of course fail to admit that this problem has been brewing for at least the last 10-12 years. Noooooo....that wouldn't fit in with your Bush bashing now would it.

Bottom line....this has zilch to do with who is President....

Raise taxes...It's obvious the cuts are not stimulating the economy. Roll them back then you'll at least get the deficit out of your way. Then maybe people won't pull out as fast. Oh and raise interest rates, it limits personal borrowing, and slows inflation. The US is far behind the curve on that. UK and Canada have consistantly been raising interest rates.

No, the govt needs to cut spending. I work for my money and dammit it's mine. I dont' mind paying for things like defense, NASA, some social programs for those that really need help, but I'm damn tired of funding midnight basketball leagues, etc, etc, etc......the fvkcing budget needs to be cut of all the BS pork.

Raising interet rates will work...but at what point are they high enough? Is it when nobody can afford to buy a house? The problem with consumer debt is the consumer. They need to have more personal responsibilty.