Electoral vote prediction thread.

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Eeezee
FiveThirtyEight.com is run by a real statistician doing real statistics.

As such, I'm putting my bets on his highest probability calculation, which is Obama 375, followed by Obama 364 and 338.

All that is based on data collected TODAY that may be true next week.

Look back and RCP's electoral count history and you will see that back on August 19 they had McCain winning 274-264.

There are a LOT of questions about the poll and how accurate they are. The range of polls this year is much different that last year. And then we have the data out of Nevada that suggests that in early voting so far the young, new voters and hispanics are NOT showing up.

Much of the Obama wins big time is based on the young and new voters showing up. If the Nevada trend is matched nation wide then the race will be a LOT closer than anyone suspects.

most polls do *not* assume that the young and minorities will show up. The ones that do are the ones that show obama up 15 points. The ones that are showing a 3-4 point spread are the ones assuming the voter demographics will match last election.


also, predictions must be in by midnight Sunday central standard time, so lets get something a bit more concrete than that out of you

 

[AstroManLuca]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Eeezee
FiveThirtyEight.com is run by a real statistician doing real statistics.

As such, I'm putting my bets on his highest probability calculation, which is Obama 375, followed by Obama 364 and 338.

All that is based on data collected TODAY that may be true next week.

Look back and RCP's electoral count history and you will see that back on August 19 they had McCain winning 274-264.

There are a LOT of questions about the poll and how accurate they are. The range of polls this year is much different that last year. And then we have the data out of Nevada that suggests that in early voting so far the young, new voters and hispanics are NOT showing up.

Much of the Obama wins big time is based on the young and new voters showing up. If the Nevada trend is matched nation wide then the race will be a LOT closer than anyone suspects.

most polls do *not* assume that the young and minorities will show up.

And many don't even poll them because they don't have land lines.

 

[miketheidiot]

btw updated.

 

[SP33Demon]

322-216 Obama

 

[evident]

Originally posted by: evident
Obama - 9000
Mccain - 0

my real pick

364 obama
174 mccain

 

[AstroManLuca]

Originally posted by: evident
Obama - 9001
Mccain - 0

fixed

 

[alexruiz]

I would love to be wrong and hopefully it will be a thumping against the chimp, his step-son, the inquisition and followers. However, but I predict a very very close one
Obama barely squeaking by 274 - 264, or it could even be a tie....

 

[Pens1566]

Obama - 353
McCain - 185

 

[miketheidiot]

updated.

 

[Ballatician]

thanks for the update

 

[winnar111]

Originally posted by: BW86
Obama: 311
McCain: 227

yep.

 

[badnewcastle]

Obama: 265
McCain: 273

And we're not going to know for sure until December similar to the 2000 election.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: badnewcastle
Obama: 265
McCain: 273

And we're not going to know for sure until December similar to the 2000 election.

Yeeeesh...a clear disconnect from reality.

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: AstroManLuca

Originally posted by: evident
Obama - OVER 9000
Mccain - 0

fixed

/b/tarded

 

[LunarRay]

313 obama 225 the other guy

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
obnoxious flame.

lets keep the trolling/flaiming out of this thread. Stupid memes more than welcome as long as they are on-topic


also updated

 

[dbk]

Obama 291 - 247 McCain

 

[phreakah]

333 obama 205 mccain

 

[Insomniator]

McCain 271
Obama 267

Then I'll wake up...

 

[the unknown]

Obama 344
McCain 194
I put Obama for winning FL. I'm hoping that will give me the edge

 

[rockyct]

Like a few others here, I'm thinking 338 for Obama, 200 for McCain.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Dewey defeats Truman!!!

 

[miketheidiot]

updated again

 

[OrByte]

O: 311
J: 227

 

[SlingXShot]

282 ... for Obama

Something fishy with CO, I could be wrong and also I took out Ohio, because that place is always rigged. He will win Virginia... thought... lose FL.

If CO is fine, then 291... but for now 282...