Electoral vote prediction thread.

[IronWing]

Dang, George Will is my closest pundit match. Of course, he did discover Reagan.

 

[jpeyton]

The prediction you have all been waiting for:

Karl Rove: Obama 338 / McCain 200

Some of the margins Rove predicted for Kerry states are OBSCENE! :laugh: In a good way.

 

[First]

I don't think people realize the effect early voters have already had. This could be a 200 vote blowout.

 

[synapsetx]

I am an example of the unpolled. I have never been called by any pollster. I have Vonage and Cell phones. College Educated White Male - but they poll my parents mercilessly in Dallas. There is a serious under-count of the mobile/VOIP constituency. They will break big for Obama and are likely part of the early vote totals.

 

[owensdj]

Obama 378
McCain 160

 

[mshan]

Nightline just said there were 90,000 at Obama's Northern Virginia rally (said Manassas was site one of first battles of Civil War).

Wow!!! (think I heard some estimate on the radio projecting 25,000 - 50,000 for this rally a day or two ago)

Gotta wonder if 400+ electoral votes could actually happen...

 

[imported_Infidel]

If Bush's victory with 51% in 2004 was hailed as a "mandate", what will that make Obama's victory? A bitch slap?

 

[miketheidiot]

i'm feeling a bit better about my prediction now.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: mshan
Nightline just said there were 90,000 at Obama's Northern Virginia rally (said Manassas was site one of first battles of Civil War).

Wow!!! (think I heard some estimate on the radio projecting 25,000 - 50,000 for this rally a day or two ago)

Gotta wonder if 400+ electoral votes could actually happen...

What the...90,000 in VA? :Q

I'm wondering if those predictions about 1 million in Chicago tomorrow will be true?

 

[Baked]

Jesus 500
McRage 37

 

[hg321]

McCain 270

Obama 268

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: jonks
Aww, I was on vaca, missed the thread. Anyway, I say Obama wins with 349-189.

Obama wins the Kerry states plus NV, CO, NM, MO, FL, OH, IA, VA. Doesn't quite get IN, GA or NC.

Fivethirtyeight has apparently viewed this thread and has agreed with me.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...nd-final-election.html

 

[evident]

bump, here we go!

 

[IronWing]

Alaska is going to hose it for me.

 

[Blackjack200]

Originally posted by: Blackjack200
Obama: 381
McCain: 157

If Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and North Carolina break for Obama I'll be damn close.

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: sandorski
Obama>>>>>>>>Twinkies>>>>>>>>>>>>>McCain

Looks like I was right!!

 

[musicman64]

Originally posted by: musicman64
Obama: 349
McCain: 189

O - FL, VA, NV
M - NC, MO

The AP's calling IN for Obama.

I wasn't so sure about NC :/ I think he's got it though.

Think it's gonna settle at:

O - 364 NC/IN
M - 174 MO/MT

Looks like a ton of ppl picked that one right, grats =)

Yay Obama!


Edit:

loool, normally I'd not post till it was all finalized, damn booze

anyhow, look at MO, 99% reporting and a diff of rougly 400 votes, wow.. hrm

 

[StageLeft]

Looks like I got pretty darn close, once things are all said and done

 

[ElFenix]

damn, off by missourri. guess i should have paid more attention to that tracking poll

 

[evident]

i picked that 364 number looking at one of the poll predictions. damn those are pretty accurate

 

[miketheidiot]

i got hosed :frown:

but at least not as badly as Dr. pizza

 

[Farang]

I will be exactly right if Omaha doesn't screw me over.. is it bad I'm hoping Obama will lose so I'm right?

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Evan
Obama 375, McCain 163. Barring anything changing too much, that's what it'll be best case.

So it looks like the only reason I was off by 11 is because I predicted it 7 days before election and Missouri tightened in the last week. Good to see that reliable, aggregate polling numbers are once again proven superb indicators of election results.

 

[AstroManLuca]

So dmcowen whatever happened to McCain winning Pennsylvania?

 

[Vic]

My pick was 338-200, 52%-47%. I was off by only NC and IN, both of which I didn't expect Obama to win. Although there may still be recounts in those 2 states as well as MO.

Still, it looks like the final electoral vote tally will most likely be Obama 364, McCain 174. Popular vote 53%-46%.

Not a landslide, but certainly a bigger and more decisive win than I expected.

Thread winners are: Viditor, Farang, Sheik Yerbouti, evident, and DLeRium.