Electric Vehicle tipping point soon?

[PeterScott]

A dominant feature of this years Frankfurt Motor Show seems to be Electric cars:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...-suvs-dominate-buzz-frankfurt-show/656719001/

We are seeing more companies announce electrification of whole lineups, countries announce long term plans to ban Combustion engine cars.

I don't think there can be any more doubt that Electric Vehicles are going to dominate personal transportation in the future, and that future is fast approaching.

I realize that in all these threads, we always get people saying they won't switch until impossible conditions are met (400 mile range recharging 100% in 5 minutes).

But I think affordable 200-300 mile EVs that represent the kind of cars people want to drive and similar/lower prices will be a mass tipping point.

Cars like small SUVs that are so popular. Example CRV/RAV4 type EVs that don't cost more than their gas counterparts will shift things dramatically. How far away is this with battery prices continuing their march downwards and more EV competition every day?

 

[PricklyPete]

Yes...electric cars are here to stay and already provide the functionality that users need, but still need some time to cover wants. I briefly considered an electric car on my last purchase, but decided against it because:

1) my wife's car fits in our garage, my car sits in the street. No place to charge at home makes the current electric car paradigm a no-go for me ATM.

2). Not convenient enough to charge on the road...especially in the mountains where we spend a lot of time. I'm ok with it taking more time to charge than refill gas...but access at this point is a no-go.

3) AWD - while not really necessary, we have grown accustomed to it. When combined with snow tires, it provides a really great platform for getting where we need to in the mountains. Don't want to spend model S money to get this.

I imagine the these issues will be addressed (or already have with AWD/Model 3). I can't imagine my next car not being electric.

 

[heymrdj]

My issue, like most urban dwellers, is simply no place to charge. My workplace is a simple office park with a few spaces lined up right in front of our building. My apartment complex is the same, a rectangle parking lot of spaces facing grass, with a single roof massive multi unit carport for a premium (and nothing over the size of a midsize SUV) and even more premium full garages that can't hold more than a midsize car. The garages all share a single 20A breaker so you're warned not to try running heaters or big chargers. Car ports have no power other than light. All of this to say that the average affordable city living location is not even close to prepared for electric car living, no matter the tax incentives given to individuals to buy them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[PeterScott]

Yeah, charging in the city is an issue. My building used to have 15 amp plugs are every spot, but new management, tore them all out. It wouldn't be enough for a big battery EV, but it would have been for something like a Volt.

 

[Wuzup101]

My problem is that some of the hardcore EV people seem to think that the government should just ban ICE vehicles. Electric cars are the future; however, there is a TON of infrastructure that is needed to support them. When that is taken care of, the tipping point will occur. With that being said, the research in battery tech and adoption going on now is great. That will only make things better.

I currently live in an apartment that does have a single EV charger in the parking deck (always taken by a Nissan leaf lol). My work site is a new multi billion dollar pharma plant, and while they had EV charging planned in the parking lot, that idea was scrapped due to budget (as they ran over in other areas). I live 40 miles outside of a top 10 (population wise USA) metro area (measured to city center). Driving an EV here would be VERY inconvenient.

 

[PeterScott]

My problem is that some of the hardcore EV people seem to think that the government should just ban ICE vehicles. Electric cars are the future; however, there is a TON of infrastructure that is needed to support them. When that is taken care of, the tipping point will occur. With that being said, the research in battery tech and adoption going on now is great. That will only make things better.

I currently live in an apartment that does have a single EV charger in the parking deck (always taken by a Nissan leaf lol). My work site is a new multi billion dollar pharma plant, and while they had EV charging planned in the parking lot, that idea was scrapped due to budget (as they ran over in other areas). I live 40 miles outside of a top 10 (population wise USA) metro area (measured to city center). Driving an EV here would be VERY inconvenient.

I think the tipping point on cars will be reached before infrastructure for apartment/condo dwellers. Vast amounts of people live in detached homes with garages, it should be a relatively small issue retrofitting a charger for them. I see them as the first wave, once the right cars arrive.

Other than that I know some jurisdictions have mandated EV charging capabilities in new construction, that will take many years to come online, but it will help a lot, and once EVs get prevalent enough, renting apartments without charging or selling Condos without it will be a significant disadvantage, so more retrofitting will start to have a strong economic incentive.

It won't be like flipping a switch, but it is inevitable and from a historical perspective, it will look like an extraordinarily fast transition.

 

[fleshconsumed]

The true tipping point will be when total cost of ownership will fall below cost of traditional gas vehicles. That's when it'll begin tipping. At that point I would also expect infrastructure to start catching up. I know a lot of people are optimistic, but I still think we're quite a few years away from that point. Electric cars are still more expensive than gas ones, and while cost of driving electric car is less than gasser, charging infrastructure is still not there, charging is still slow, and you still need gasser for road trips.

 

[mindless1]

People in favor of electric vehicles like to say XYZ is not a big issue, can dissect each thing and say it's easy to overcome. No, it's not. It's easy to sit in a chair and daydream about a conceptual hurdle. Actually getting things done, reality has shown us that many things that could happen, don't for various reasons. Many governments can't even keep pot holes filled, and you think they're about to build up electrical infrastructure? lol. Convincing the average person to spend more for things they don't care much about is not easy.

You can tell them it's better for the environment (which is an arguable half truth) but let's get real here. How many of you will buy the widget made in China because it's much cheaper, knowing that the manufacturing polluted the environment much more than any modern ICE vehicle?

We are at least 20 years away from half the US fleet being all electric, maybe even longer, and maybe 1/4th instead of half.

Other than that I know some jurisdictions have mandated EV charging capabilities in new construction, that will take many years to come online, but it will help a lot, and once EVs get prevalent enough, renting apartments without charging or selling Condos without it will be a significant disadvantage, so more retrofitting will start to have a strong economic incentive.

Or the opposite. A minuscule % of current vehicle sales are all electric. I consider it an advantage to not have that charging capability so the cost is lower. Nothing is "free". If I want to pay for that, I'll do so as part of the budget of an expensive electric vehicle. You might say it's a small cost but everyone has their own personal desires and the sum of all those desires is a large cost. Better to leave this to individuals who want the expensive toy car.

 

[PeterScott]

Or the opposite. A minuscule % of current vehicle sales are all electric. I consider it an advantage to not have that charging capability so the cost is lower. Nothing is "free". If I want to pay for that, I'll do so as part of the budget of an expensive electric vehicle. You might say it's a small cost but everyone has their own personal desires and the sum of all those desires is a large cost. Better to leave this to individuals who want the expensive toy car.

You are stuck on the present, when I am talking about the future. It's obvious the tipping point isn't here yet.

As I said before, I see the the Vehicle tipping point when you can buy a small EV-SUV for the same or less money than a CRV/RAV4.

Once that happens, huge numbers of people will take advantage of the economic advantages that EV ownership will offer.

That wave EV ownership will drive us towards the infrastructure tipping point, that will come later.

I do think we are more than 20 years away from half the fleet being electric, but that is an eye blink for this kind of major transition.

 

[RLGL]

Price like that are still too high for the masses. My guess a 50K income will not support an electric in the futrure

 

[JulesMaximus]

Or the opposite. A minuscule % of current vehicle sales are all electric. I consider it an advantage to not have that charging capability so the cost is lower. Nothing is "free". If I want to pay for that, I'll do so as part of the budget of an expensive electric vehicle. You might say it's a small cost but everyone has their own personal desires and the sum of all those desires is a large cost. Better to leave this to individuals who want the expensive toy car.

I see people driving electric cars all the time. They are VERY common here in SoCal, the land of the automobile. They are not toy cars by any means and many people use them for daily commuting, they excel at that actually.

 

[mindless1]

You are stuck on the present, when I am talking about the future. It's obvious the tipping point isn't here yet.

No, not "stuck" at all. I'm talking about reality. The reality is that it's madness for everyone to pay for something that very, very few will use for more than two decades. Then again, it's madness to spend time daydreaming about 20 years into the future too, as if our words here, now, make a bit of difference.

As I said before, I see the the Vehicle tipping point when you can buy a small EV-SUV for the same or less money than a CRV/RAV4.

This depends on the assumption that this day will ever come. As far as I can recall, vehicle prices keep going up. We can speculate that some day a magical battery will Fix Everything, but some day a magical levitating car will make an EV with wheels obsolete.

Once that happens, huge numbers of people will take advantage of the economic advantages that EV ownership will offer.

You mean if that happens. Maybe it will, but why bother fixating on it? It's a silly topic all around, kind of like predicting the inevitable but basing inevitability on unproven assumptions. EV may not end up being what people are driving in 50 years, could be fuel cell based. There is no guarantee that magical science will ever develop a high capacity, cheap battery.

 

[mindless1]

I see people driving electric cars all the time. They are VERY common here in SoCal, the land of the automobile. They are not toy cars by any means and many people use them for daily commuting, they excel at that actually.

Don't get me started about SoCal NutJobs.

They are toys. For adults. There's nothing wrong with toys for adults but that they can do one thing well doesn't make them a replacement for all the things they can't do, so you either need another vehicle or added burden finding alternate means of Getting Things Done, unless you just like to live a handicapped life and if you choose that, it is your right to do so.

 

[K1052]

Don't get me started about SoCal NutJobs.

They are toys. For adults. There's nothing wrong with toys for adults but that they can do one thing well doesn't make them a replacement for all the things they can't do, so you either need another vehicle or added burden finding alternate means of Getting Things Done, unless you just like to live a handicapped life and if you choose that, it is your right to do so.

We owned a PHEV in CA as an only car and knew lots of people who exclusively drive EVs. This isn't unheard of nor are they "handicapped" in life.

 

[PeterScott]

This depends on the assumption that this day will ever come. As far as I can recall, vehicle prices keep going up. We can speculate that some day a magical battery will Fix Everything, but some day a magical levitating car will make an EV with wheels obsolete.

It only depends on the currently observable trends continuing. EV are getting less expensive and/or longer range in every generation. See the Nissan leaf. Ever increasing range, ever decreasing price. Tesla Model S to Model 3.

 

[desy]

Would people in SOCal buy them if they didn't get preferred HOV status and no subsidies?
For most people they are too expensive, don't have range and take too long to charge and limited ability to do so. Around here where 6 months out of the year its freezing you waste too much to warm the cabin and if you are stuck in a traffic jam your watching your range go down or choose to freeze. A gas vehicle idles a long long time and creates heat.
So tipping point? hardly, there are rock solid reasons why EV's constitute only .5% of the market and 99.5% choose FF

Don't get me wrong I love the concept of EV's but realistic for me in the next 10 years? big maybe
I guess you should qualify soon
http://www.windpowerengineering.com...c-vehicles-will-make-half-new-car-sales-2040/

 

[mindless1]

We owned a PHEV in CA as an only car and knew lots of people who exclusively drive EVs. This isn't unheard of nor are they "handicapped" in life.

Writing they aren't handicapped doesn't make it true. You might truly believe that. You might wish it with all your heart and soul. It still isn't true.

 

[K1052]

Writing they aren't handicapped doesn't make it true. You might truly believe that. You might wish it with all your heart and soul. It still isn't true.

Ok then

 

[tweakmonkey]

Evs are toys? I'm guessing you've never owned one.

 

[Elixer]

Have they even solved the problem with batteries and winter weather?
I just don't see them lasting very long for the snow belt people.

 

[heymrdj]

Everyone has a different definition of a toy. To me, for a car to not be a toy, it has to serve 90% of the tasks required of it.

1. It must be able to get energy from any average "energy station". That means no weird phone requirements like high sulfur diesel, above 93 octane gas, CNG/LP, ethanol free gas, and yes, a charger plug.

2. Spend 2 hours or less to gather enough energy to drive 500 miles. On average I will need that capacity 1-3 times per month, and I'll have two one hour times off for it to be "refueled", however that may be.

3. It has to be ok being outside, no garages or covers.

4. At minimum room on the back for a weight carrying hitch for a bike carrier.

It's a very simple list of requirements, one that I believe a lot of America has, besides the hitch part. If it's a car I can't travel with (where I need to rent something each time), or something that needs to be babied (sports car for example), it's a toy.

Also, everyone has a different definition of freedom. Some people never leave their 20 mile comfort zone, living in the big city, and considering the television to be the best portal to what the world has to offer. Others expect a vehicle to take them there. You'll never convince the other they are wrong. When anyone tells me "why don't you just fly across the country" it makes me wonder what they actually enjoy about any traveling vacation if they are simply missing it all. The trip is half the fun.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[MuchTooSexy]

I have a house with spot in the garage where an EV can park and get charged on 240v.
I commute to work about 50 miles round trip. HOV lanes are available for most of that trip.
I had a 20 year old pontiac grand prix that got around 17mpg.
My spouse has an suv for weekend purposes when longer range might be necessary. (it can also tow 5k lbs.)

I would say getting a chevy bolt or other similar EV is a complete no brainer in my case. just the savings in gasoline alone by replacing my old car would cover the monthly cost of a lease. an EV in my case would certainly not be a toy.

unfortunately, i'm not sure how many people have a similar use case to me. that is probably why EVs haven't reached a tipping point yet.

 

[tweakmonkey]

I think a lot of people fit the same needs you do. Like 25-50% of the population (especially if you consider most households have more than one car, meaning there's probably a backup for that once every few months 300+ mile drive). Mass adoption will probably begin from the Model 3, Bolt, and similar 200+ mile cars coming soon. But it'll take decades to outnumber gas. Maybe it'll be 50% in 20 years. Because other than range and initial price, Evs are better in most ways than gasoline powered cars. Most people that drive a good one immediately like it and see how awesome it could be to use and deal with every day. Granted it won't be the best car for long 300+ mile driving days but it will be better for the other 95%+ of your driving needs.

Some days I see 10% electric cars driving around me. I went to Rhode Island last weekend and saw 4 in 4 days. Location and the driving situation / density have a lot to do with it. That'll slowly change but these newest cars will have a big impact.

 

[PeterScott]

Have they even solved the problem with batteries and winter weather?
I just don't see them lasting very long for the snow belt people.

All EVs have battery warmers to protect the batteries in extreme cold and make sure you can get reasonable range out of them. People have made low range (82mile) Original Nissan Leafs work as their daily commuter car in Canadain winter. It's pretty much the worse EV, with the worse battery, so it only gets better from there. Here's an account with cold snap experiences/experiments with a Nissan leaf:
https://canadianleaf.wordpress.com/2014/02/17/stories-from-the-cold-snap/

TLDR: You will lose range, but as long as you have a reasonable cushion you will have no problem, but not using your brain (leave it unplugged for days in depths of winter) will cause issues.

 

[nathanddrews]

IMO, until EV offers the same flexibility and freedom of movement as ICE, it's not for me. There are certainly many pros and cons between the two, but I need that infrastructure in place so that if I want to take a roadtrip from Minnesota to Texas, but then if I want to hit up a few last minute sites or decide to come back up through the Ozarks or something, I'm not going to get stranded. This is where I like the idea of the Chevy Volt - a built-in ICE generator to maintain/preserve/backup power.