Electric Vehicle tipping point soon?

[Elixer]

Why 2017 will go down as the beginning of the end of the internal combustion engine

The bottom line is, if the subsidies go away, then most people will just not pay a premium for electric.
So, I am thinking more along the lines of 2027 when we will actually see the price of electric be pretty close to gas engines. Might be sooner if a new battery tech comes along.

 

[PeterScott]

The bottom line is, if the subsidies go away, then most people will just not pay a premium for electric.
So, I am thinking more along the lines of 2027 when we will actually see the price of electric be pretty close to gas engines. Might be sooner if a new battery tech comes along.

This is actually in line with my OP when I started this thread. I figure the real tipping point is real price parity on purchase price(without subsidy).. That makes it a no brainer for anyone who can fit an EV into their life, because of the superior running costs. 10 years is soon when talking about a major shift like supplanting the combustion engine.

Before you get to price parity on purchase, it may still have lower cost overall, but that mainly counts for spreadsheet buyers, not the average Joe.

 

[rancherlee]

The QUICKEST was to a workable EV is something that will go ~150 miles on a charge BUT also has a small gas/diesel generator built in. My backup generator has a 13hp Honda and provides 30amps @ 220v, uses 1 gallon an hour @ 100%, and weighs ~200#. Swap out that Air cooled engine for a similar liquid cooled and you could kill 2 birds with one stone. For colder climates running a heater off batteries kills power in a hurry, instead the generator could be run at idle to provide heat. Most smaller cars only are using 8-10hp to maintain 65-70mph and the generator WOULD be able to provide just enough charge to keep the system level OR charge the pack while stopped where a plug in isn't available. 150 miles on the battery + another 300 off a small 5 gallon tank for the generator would be nice! I know people would buy it, I've seen a few EV's sitting at wayside rests running a small generator to charge the car back up, why not charge on the fly!

 

[PeterScott]

The QUICKEST was to a workable EV is something that will go ~150 miles on a charge BUT also has a small gas/diesel generator built in. My backup generator has a 13hp Honda and provides 30amps @ 220v, uses 1 gallon an hour @ 100%, and weighs ~200#. Swap out that Air cooled engine for a similar liquid cooled and you could kill 2 birds with one stone. For colder climates running a heater off batteries kills power in a hurry, instead the generator could be run at idle to provide heat. Most smaller cars only are using 8-10hp to maintain 65-70mph and the generator WOULD be able to provide just enough charge to keep the system level OR charge the pack while stopped where a plug in isn't available. 150 miles on the battery + another 300 off a small 5 gallon tank for the generator would be nice! I know people would buy it, I've seen a few EV's sitting at wayside rests running a small generator to charge the car back up, why not charge on the fly!

That is a rather naive take on the issue. The BMW i3 Rex has 33 HP Range extender engine, almost triple what you suggest and it runs into issue of having too little power when running on the range extender.

Much better to do what the Volt does, and provide the Range extender with Ample power so the car doesn't feel like it is dragging another car when you run in Range Extender mode. The current Volt has ~100HP gas engine for range extended use.

If you are going through the trouble to add an ICE and all it's support systems, you may as well size it adequately, so it can function well.

 

[Yuriman]

The QUICKEST was to a workable EV is something that will go ~150 miles on a charge BUT also has a small gas/diesel generator built in. My backup generator has a 13hp Honda and provides 30amps @ 220v, uses 1 gallon an hour @ 100%, and weighs ~200#. Swap out that Air cooled engine for a similar liquid cooled and you could kill 2 birds with one stone. For colder climates running a heater off batteries kills power in a hurry, instead the generator could be run at idle to provide heat. Most smaller cars only are using 8-10hp to maintain 65-70mph and the generator WOULD be able to provide just enough charge to keep the system level OR charge the pack while stopped where a plug in isn't available. 150 miles on the battery + another 300 off a small 5 gallon tank for the generator would be nice! I know people would buy it, I've seen a few EV's sitting at wayside rests running a small generator to charge the car back up, why not charge on the fly!

The 2012 Leaf will go 100 miles on 34 kWh according to the EPA, or just under 3 miles per kWh. Your 13hp generator produces 6.6kWh (before losses) on what I assume is very roughly a gallon of diesel. That's around 20mpg on diesel, before losses which you can probably assume at 10-20%.

It's often a good idea to oversize an engine a bit, because they lose efficiency rapidly if you rev them up. My Insight delivers ~100mpg at 55mph, which is ~2000rpm at ~80% load. The engine produces 67HP (on paper) @ 6000rpm but you can bet if you tried to run it at that RPM you'd get terrible fuel economy too. There have been a few tests where journalists have taken Prii to tracks and followed sports cars, and attempting to keep up they've delivered worse economy because the engine is being asked to run so far out of its peak efficiency range. For a vehicle the size of a Leaf, you'd probably want a 1.0-1.5L engine to most efficiently generate power.

 

[K1052]

That is a rather naive take on the issue. The BMW i3 Rex has 33 HP Range extender engine, almost triple what you suggest and it runs into issue of having too little power when running on the range extender.

Much better to do what the Volt does, and provide the Range extender with Ample power so the car doesn't feel like it is dragging another car when you run in Range Extender mode. The current Volt has ~100HP gas engine for range extended use.

If you are going through the trouble to add an ICE and all it's support systems, you may as well size it adequately, so it can function well.

Reportedly the power of the i3 range extender has been increased for 2017 (with a slight hit to fuel economy) to prevent reduced power operations. I never actually experience this mode since our i3 is coded and I can hold SOC at 75% when I want when on an (infrequent) longer trip.

 

[tweakmonkey]

why not charge on the fly!

Well if that little generator can charge the car on the fly, doesn't that mean your car's engine could be just this tiny little generator? Your 13 HP generator probably can't push a car along at 70 MPH.

IMO - Plugin hybrids and range extenders sound great in theory, but it's adding a lot of complexity and stuff to maintain that can fail. One of the main reasons I bought an EV is that you don't have to worry about changing the oil, letting old gas sit in the tank, or dealing with upkeeping the emissions / fuel lines / vacuum lines and so-on. On a PE-H you just bring in all that other stuff in addition to the same worries you'd have about batteries / inverters and chargers failing. More to go wrong, more to deal with, more weight. Road trip charging is an issue to deal with, but I think range extenders, other than something you could de-couple from the car and bring as a trailer or in the trunk as an accessory for road trips aren't really ideal.

Random note about EVs: I take night classes for machining/CNC work here, and yesterday I drove to school in my EV. It was 95 degrees outside and I was tired, but wanted to take a nap before class. I parked in a garage spot out of the sun and turned on the AC. I slept for a half hour while my car stayed at 70 degrees inside and used about a dime's worth of electricity. Zero fumes, no noise, no wear and tear on engine/accessories or bearings while idling for a half hour.