Electric Vehicle tipping point soon?

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PeterScott

Platinum Member
Jul 7, 2017
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The issue I see on the map is chargers on route, but none where I'm at. Say that I'm visiting my parents, the nearest level 2 charger is 32 miles away, 37 miles if I don't feel like sitting in BMW's parking lot waiting 2 hours for my car to recharge. So rather than fuel up and be able to go days (450miles to a tank) after leaving the last town, I have to constantly find the charger. Using an example of the Bolt, at 4 miles per hour at 110V charging (all that's available at their house) our typical daily trips in the country would have to be no more than 30 miles, leaving 6 miles of padding. Otherwise we have to waste a trip driving 37 miles somewhere so the car can sit and charge for several hours, and then drive it 37 miles back home, leaving just under 200 miles left on the "tank". It could be done, but it'd have to be watched constantly. Also would have to plan your day sitting in some Florida town waiting on the thing to charge again.

No one is arguing that EVs are suitable for everyone today. But how do you think that Charger Map will look in 10 years, or 20 years from now? What are the increased chances that someones parents will have Level 2 charging when you arrive 10 or 20 years from now.
 
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Viper GTS

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
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Not to mention the easy solution - Put a charger at their house.

Charging at home (or places you frequent) is essential to making EV ownership work, for most people today there are going to be some compromises. $1000 to put a charger in my parents home would be an easy decision if I were intent on owning an EV.

Viper GTS
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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No one is arguing that EVs are suitable for everyone today. But how do you think that Charger Map will look in 10 years, and 20 years from now?

They'll take over the commuter role first anyway. Since the US averages over 2 cars per household that's a lot already.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Cars spend the vast majority of their lives parked at home or at work so those are the sensible places to charge them. Given the different peak generation profiles of renewable power (wind at night and solar mid-day) and the demand curve the US should be able to accommodate a ton of EV charging before grid upgrades become required. CA in particular could use a lot more EVs to soften the duck curve that rooftop solar is causing.
 

Yuriman

Diamond Member
Jun 25, 2004
5,530
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If I owned an EV, with the amount I drive, 4 miles per hour of charging would easily cover it. I might make one long trip per week (maybe 100 miles round trip), and lots of shorter trips. I don't need to fill up a 200 mile battery every day, or even immediately fill it after draining it.

If I need to travel cross-country, I'll fly and rent. Probably works out cheaper overall.

Edit: My biggest issue is that even at $2.80 per gallon, my Insight is still cheaper per mile to drive. My average tank is about 75 miles per gallon on gasoline alone. It also has needed no maintenance to speak of over 225k miles.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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heymrdj

Diamond Member
May 28, 2007
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Not even a remote possibility, they are on SS and in their 70s. They are living on their current 95 and 2004 vehicles as best as they can. Benefits would be a non starter, they can't afford 1,000$. Their 100A panel wouldn't either in the winter running electric heat. I'm sure in the future there will be more stations, but you're ignoring the key issue. If people need to go from minutes to hours of fueling time, fuel must be at every location. That means charging will need to be available at every work place parking spot, every mall spot, every single painted line and household driveway you see today. That is the reality of switching to a fueling solution that takes too long. To me, standardized battery packs with a robotic swap system will make sense to avoid having to build the decentralized architecture. Otherwise, the government will have to get involved for the massive infrastructure cost. Like I said we're not looking at 20 years. 50 easily. Unless there's a major change in government policy to accelerate it. Over 40 million live in apartments in the USA, most do not have charging spots. The charging situation is far larger than you care to look at it, and all anyone has mentioned so far is "I have another car." That goes back to my definition of a toy. You have a car that you can't even travel with because it doesn't go far enough in a charge, that's a toy. If I could charge everyday at work or home I would have an EV instead of considering a Prius C.


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WackyDan

Diamond Member
Jan 26, 2004
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Only thing that would make me wary about the used market for a while is water damaged cars making their way into it like they did after Sandy and Katrina. Fraud was pretty rampant.

Yeah... That concerns me but most of the cars are shipped to Mexico if not crushed here.
 

MuchTooSexy

Member
Mar 31, 2014
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The charging situation is far larger than you care to look at it, and all anyone has mentioned so far is "I have another car." That goes back to my definition of a toy. You have a car that you can't even travel with because it doesn't go far enough in a charge, that's a toy. If I could charge everyday at work or home I would have an EV instead of considering a Prius C.

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you make valid points. but i would turn it around and say that the EV as the daily driver is not the toy. the toy is the ICE that is infrequently used and only comes out for those long trips.

and not all EV owners also "have another car". some have suggested that they can get by with just an EV and rent an ICE for specific, infrequent purposes.
 

heymrdj

Diamond Member
May 28, 2007
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you make valid points. but i would turn it around and say that the EV as the daily driver is not the toy. the toy is the ICE that is infrequently used and only comes out for those long trips.

and not all EV owners also "have another car". some have suggested that they can get by with just an EV and rent an ICE for specific, infrequent purposes.

Like I said earlier, definition of toy varies from person to person. For you it may be the main tool, for me my commute changes daily and wouldn't be trustworthy enough for range unless it could do 140 miles in winter one way or 280 with 1 hour of charge total. Rental is always an option, not one I consider very often because there's never a time it's not inconvenient to switch all my crap out between vehicles. Not to mention the ridiculous fees. Its 46$ a day here for an economy car from enterprise with insurance and taxes. It also means being an hour late for work because they don't open until 8AM.


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Viper GTS

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
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Also, in spite of what he seems to think most households have more than one car.

So 'having another car' is not an excuse to justify EV ownership, it's just reality for close to 2/3 of US households.

Viper GTS
 

heymrdj

Diamond Member
May 28, 2007
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Also, in spite of what he seems to think most households have more than one car.

So 'having another car' is not an excuse to justify EV ownership, it's just reality for close to 2/3 of US households.

Viper GTS

Indeed, in my household the wife actually uses her car. So it's not a second car just to take whenever I want.


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Viper GTS

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
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I agree it's not a car to take whenever you want but if an EV covers either person's needs 99% of the time (which is extremely likely) the odds of an EV + ICE vehicle household encountering a day that can't be completed with the vehicles they have is exceedingly unlikely. I have four cars in my household and already routinely do this. Daily vehicle use is determined by weather, driving range, package carrying needs, etc. It's really not hard.

For what it's worth I'm going through this kind of math myself right now. My wife wants a Tesla. I can't currently charge it at home (rental) and she occasionally needs to drive hundreds of miles in a single day. I've started collecting the daily trip data to get an idea of exactly how many days per year she'd have to drive something else if she had an entry model S or X but my initial estimate is she'd need more range 2-3 days a year. So even with a very travel heavy job over a large service area she's looking at conservatively 98% or better coverage. And that's completely ignoring the supercharger network which we'd have to use anyway since I can't currently charge at home.

Viper GTS
 

heymrdj

Diamond Member
May 28, 2007
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I agree it's not a car to take whenever you want but if an EV covers either person's needs 99% of the time (which is extremely likely) the odds of an EV + ICE vehicle household encountering a day that can't be completed with the vehicles they have is exceedingly unlikely. I have four cars in my household and already routinely do this. Daily vehicle use is determined by weather, driving range, package carrying needs, etc. It's really not hard.

For what it's worth I'm going through this kind of math myself right now. My wife wants a Tesla. I can't currently charge it at home (rental) and she occasionally needs to drive hundreds of miles in a single day. I've started collecting the daily trip data to get an idea of exactly how many days per year she'd have to drive something else if she had an entry model S or X but my initial estimate is she'd need more range 2-3 days a year. So even with a very travel heavy job over a large service area she's looking at conservatively 98% or better coverage. And that's completely ignoring the supercharger network which we'd have to use anyway since I can't currently charge at home.

Viper GTS

The question is how do you refuel it? If you can't charge at home or work, do you sit in a hotel parking lot for 4 hours with a level 2 charger? That's the point I haven't seen answered in this thread. We already know in small market tests that the grid can't handle superchargers in any meaningful amount (a typical mid size city of 100,000 commuters needing fuel that day) If I'm going to spend more than 15 minutes refueling, it'll be doing something I have to do or want to do, not finding some random hotel or dealer to sit at and twiddle thumbs.


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PeterScott

Platinum Member
Jul 7, 2017
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Indeed, in my household the wife actually uses her car. So it's not a second car just to take whenever I want.

Again, all you are doing is arguing vociferously that an EV won't work for you.

So what? It doesn't have to.

Probably close to half of new car sales could go EV, even at current infrastructure levels. Most homes in the USA are single family detached, meaning they could fairly easily add a level 2 charger at home. Most are also multi-car meaning there is backup for road trips.

So there is massive potential before we even get to the infrastructure issues.

Which is why I think the big tipping point is simply getting the purchase price down to equality. At that point the economics greatly favor EVs and the switch-over become an avalanche.

Sure half the population may be out of the loop until infrastructure changes to support them, but the first big wave of will drive more infrastructure development, which opens the EV market to the next cohort, which drives the next wave of infrastructure, and so on...
 
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heymrdj

Diamond Member
May 28, 2007
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Again, all you are doing is arguing vociferously that an EV won't work for you.

So what? It doesn't have to.

Probably close to half of new car sales could go EV, even at current infrastructure levels. Most homes in the USA are single family detached, meaning they could fairly easily add a level 2 charger at home. Most are also multi-car meaning there is backup for road trips.

So there is massive potential before we even get to the infrastructure issues.

Which is why I think the big tipping point is simply getting the purchase price down to equality. At that point the economics greatly favor EVs and the switch-over become an avalanche.

Sure half the population may be out of the loop until infrastructure changes to support them, but the first big wave of will drive more infrastructure development, which opens the EV market to the next cohort, which drives the next wave of infrastructure, and so on...

Because the infrastructure isn't there for half! We have brownouts in the north east because it gets of 90 degrees lol. But yeah we'll add half (8 million) cars to the power grid tomorrow. Nothing will possibly go wrong with needing 400million amps of power at minimum per week to keep them charged. I know you're thinking "they'll charge at night, because no one will use all the energy in a single day" but there's a lot of regions (Elkhart comes to mind) that don't even have that. One does not just shift their energy source. 62% of commuters travel 30 miles per day, mainly due to the economic necessity of getting housing in less expensive locations. We're talking fully draining battery packs every single day. You're trying to make this a stupidly simple issue to solve, when in actuality it covers a massive socioeconomic spectrum of issues.


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PeterScott

Platinum Member
Jul 7, 2017
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Because the infrastructure isn't there for half! We have brownouts in the north east because it gets of 90 degrees lol. But yeah we'll add half (8 million) cars to the power grid tomorrow.

You are pretty much trolling in your posts at this point. Your post are mostly FUD and Strawman arguments you construct.

Just because half the market could use an EV, they aren't going to switch overnight, it just means there are a huge potential market, and we have a LONG time before we have to be concerned about exceptions such as yourself that can't/won't buy. Those cases are simply irrelevant because there are millions of low hanging fruit that can be addressed first.

But even addressing the low hanging fruit will take decades and the grid will adapt as EVs gradually roll out.
 

heymrdj

Diamond Member
May 28, 2007
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You are pretty much trolling in your posts at this point. Your post are mostly FUD and Strawman arguments you construct.

Just because half the market could use an EV, they aren't going to switch overnight, it just means there are a huge potential market, and we have a LONG time before we have to be concerned about exceptions such as yourself that can't/won't buy. Those cases are simply irrelevant because there are millions of low hanging fruit that can be addressed first.

But even addressing the low hanging fruit will take decades and the grid will adapt as EVs gradually roll out.

Look you keep discussing this tipping point, the chicken and egg. If anyone's trolling, it's you by attempting to move goal posts to fit into the original OP. The point is that the tipping point isn't close. You need infrastructure, and infrastructure en masse isn't decided by the people, governments structure it so people are more apt to live in certain areas. You're not slowly dripping pure EV into the market at measurable percentages without the market (chargers at home, work, and business) being available. You're not getting the businesses to endure that cost without the cars being there. This is a government issue, not a choice issue. Gasoline did not get prevalent because we threw some into automobiles. It was a lot of businesses and government work that made it the fuel source it is today, and electricity will come the same way.


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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Mostly affordable plugables like the Cmax. Obviously a Bolt will get a week except in winter.

The C-Max is a PHEV. One could even charge it's paltry battery pack over 110v overnight each day with no problem.
 

tweakmonkey

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Mar 11, 2013
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I plug my car into 110V almost exclusively. I just run a heavy duty extension cord to my little EVSE and it adds about 40 miles of range over 8 hours (enough to charge on the off peak rate at $0.11 per kWH and get me to work and back every day), or about $.02 per mile. If I drive further I just charge a little longer, but I'm usually home from 5 PM til 7 AM every day so I could add 70 miles of range every day on 110 if I needed it. If I get behind I will usually charge on the weekend and I'm often leaving for work with ~95% charge.

Some day I might add a 220 hookup but I haven't needed a faster charge rate once yet in over a year. Also I could use my neighbor's 220 EVSE or a public charger if I needed to, but our house was built in the 40s so I think we might be pushing it with another (because our oven is electric too). I guess if I had some emergency where I needed more than 30 miles range after work, I'd just take my girlfriend's car or an Uber. Or drive my gas toy car 1st world problems. 30 miles is a long distance here.
 
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desy

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2000
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Well considering road repair and maint around here is built off gasoline taxes you can add a fee paid at your DMV for road use in your EV once the economics shift away from FF
 
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