Electric Vehicle tipping point soon?

[Thebobo]

..........

In the US about 80% of owner occupied houses have a carport or a garage. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/ahs/2013/factsheets/ahs13-1_UnitedStates.pdf
........

I realize its a legit survey but that number seems awfully high.

 

[K1052]

My brother-in-law in Berkeley, California, has a Chevy Bolt. His main reason for buying it was because he gets to use the carpool lanes on the Bay Bridge into San Francisco and because he gets to use the premium EV parking spot in his office building - not because he's excited by the car itself, but because he can get to work faster and find parking easier... both of which would disappear if there were more EV drivers out there. Now that he has the car he likes his car, but when I flew out over the summer to go to a wedding in Carmel, California and I said "hey, I can't wait to see your Bolt", he replied that he wasn't going to drive it because it's 120 miles to Carmel and he wasn't sure how to charge it during the wedding and so he was worried about getting it home. So I still haven't seen his Bolt. You might have suggestions for how he could have done this (it looks like there's a DC fast charger in Marina which isn't too far from Carmel), but the point remains that he doesn't feel comfortable taking the car on long trips and for that he uses what he called his "real car".

Did he get a Bolt without CCS? There are CCS chargers on that route...I know because I used them on a trip down from SF.

 

[MuchTooSexy]

So I suppose the "tipping point" is when EVs have every conceivable advantage over ICEs and no disadvantages, so you'd have to be a fool not to own one, and even then it'll take a while for people to start buying them.

What they have now:
-Fueling a fraction of the cost
-No exhaust, no noise, no vibrations
-Instant torque/acceleration
-One pedal driving
-Significantly lower maintenance costs and complexity
-Significantly higher reliability
-Can drive itself

What still needs to happen:
-Must have more range for one trip than anyone would want to drive for one trip
-Must take no longer to "fill up", 20 minutes is too long for what's usually a weeks' driving for most people
-Must cost the same or less as an ICE vehicle which is otherwise inferior

I think you've missed a huge advantage:
-can be topped off/refueled at home (and thus never have to visit a shady gas station to touch a grimey pump handle.)

another thing that needs to happen:
-looks like a normal car that someone would want rather than looking like an appliance. (i feel that had BMW made a 3 series version of an electric car instead of that i3, they would have sold tons. they were probably worried that such a car would cannibalize their own sales.)

 

[K1052]

I think you've missed a huge advantage:
-can be topped off/refueled at home (and thus never have to visit a shady gas station to touch a grimey pump handle.)

another thing that needs to happen:
-looks like a normal car that someone would want rather than looking like an appliance. (i feel that had BMW made a 3 series version of an electric car instead of that i3, they would have sold tons. they were probably worried that such a car would cannibalize their own sales.)

The Bolt and the new Leaf look pretty close to your average cars these days.

As the driver of an i3 I'll admit that their exterior is an acquired taste. That said the interior is fantastic and it's nothing short of an ideal city car. The i3 is also a number of years old now and designed well before BMW took the threat of the Model 3 seriously which now threatens to eat up all their 3 Series sales.

 

[MuchTooSexy]

The Bolt and the new Leaf look pretty close to your average cars these days.

As the driver of an i3 I'll admit that their exterior is an acquired taste. That said the interior is fantastic and it's nothing short of an ideal city car. The i3 is also a number of years old now and designed well before BMW took the threat of the Model 3 seriously which now threatens to eat up all their 3 Series sales.

The Bolt and Leaf are normal in the way a Honda Fit or a Toyota Camery are normal. but those are not aspirational cars. they are just regular cars people use to get to work, not cars that are expected to impress friends/neighbors.

something that people would want to drive are like the 3 series or CT6 or even a Mustang. or maybe a crossover formfactor that is super poplar these days, like the CRV or Terrain.

as for the i3, i liked it. it definitely has the feel of a BMW. i just wished it looked like a regular BMW.

 

[Zorba]

So I suppose the "tipping point" is when EVs have every conceivable advantage over ICEs and no disadvantages, so you'd have to be a fool not to own one, and even then it'll take a while for people to start buying them.

What they have now:
-Fueling a fraction of the cost
-No exhaust, no noise, no vibrations
-Instant torque/acceleration
-One pedal driving
-Significantly lower maintenance costs and complexity
-Significantly higher reliability
-Can drive itself

What still needs to happen:
-Must have more range for one trip than anyone would want to drive for one trip
-Must take no longer to "fill up", 20 minutes is too long for what's usually a weeks' driving for most people
-Must cost the same or less as an ICE vehicle which is otherwise inferior

You're obviously underplaying the disadvantages. But you did forget "Run out of fuel, have to get towed to charging station that might be 50 miles away as opposed to borrow a gas can from the station down the street."

 

[Yuriman]

You're obviously underplaying the disadvantages. But you did forget "Run out of fuel, have to get towed to charging station that might be 50 miles away as opposed to borrow a gas can from the station down the street."

Because we only have electrical outlets every 50 miles.

How many times have you run your gas car empty and needed a tow?

 

[pm]

Did he get a Bolt without CCS? There are CCS chargers on that route...I know because I used them on a trip down from SF.

I don't know. But if he didn't that would explain it - because I pulled up plugshare while I was typing that post and I agree with you that there are some fast DC chargers along the route... Particularly the one in Marina just north of Monterey.

 

[pm]

So I suppose the "tipping point" is when EVs have every conceivable advantage over ICEs and no disadvantages, so you'd have to be a fool not to own one, and even then it'll take a while for people to start buying them.

What they have now:
-Fueling a fraction of the cost
-No exhaust, no noise, no vibrations
-Instant torque/acceleration
-One pedal driving
-Significantly lower maintenance costs and complexity
-Significantly higher reliability
-Can drive itself

What still needs to happen:
-Must have more range for one trip than anyone would want to drive for one trip
-Must take no longer to "fill up", 20 minutes is too long for what's usually a weeks' driving for most people
-Must cost the same or less as an ICE vehicle which is otherwise inferior

I'd point out that not everyone is sold on one pedal driving (I am), "driving itself" is a bit of an exaggeration for the state of ADAS vs. level 5 autonomy and most of the EV models for sale right now don't have ADAS, and lots of ICE car models do and then on reliability, the jury is still out on this one. For reliability common sense would say that "battery+motor" must be more relliable than "gas+filters+oil+filters+serpentine belt+injectors+air intake+everything else in a gas car". But Consumer Reports has dinged both Tesla and Nissan's Leaf for reliability problems. The recommended avoiding the 2013 Leaf due to low reliability, only gave the 2014/2015 Leaf "above average" on reliability and took away Tesla Model's recommendation due to reliability.

So, yes, I think the tipping point for most consumers is when EV's have very few disadvantages over gasoline cars. I'm kind of surprised that you disagree.

Look, I love EV's... but I often talk to people who don't know much about them and it's amazing how little people understand them. Even the cost of fueling isn't something that the average consumer is going to be aware of. If you hang out on reddit.com/r/teslamotors there are questions every couple of days where people say "I want to buy a Model S but I don't understand how much it will cost me to charge it where I live" and this is despite a really slick calculator on Tesla's website.

-Must have more range for one trip than anyone would want to drive for one trip

Most of my trips are something like 10 miles and I don't want an EV with a ten mile range... Unless you want to own two cars, you want the EV to be able to replace the ICE. I want to be able to drive to an airport 100 miles away and leave it for a week in the Colorado cold and then drive it back home and not have it dead. I want to be able to take it skiing which is a ~250 miles round day trip. I want to able to drive for a long weekend to see my sister in it and she's 600 miles away and I want it to recharge in quickly when I need to stop >3 times along the way... I don't think any of these things are totally unreasonable, and my Model 3 which should be delivered to me in the next 100 days can do all of them.

-Must take no longer to "fill up", 20 minutes is too long for what's usually a weeks' driving for most people

What do you think is an acceptable amount of time to wait for an EV to recharge on a road trip? I just drove from Colorado to Salt Lake City a few weeks ago in my ~500 mile range Prius and had to stop for gas once on the way there... how long do you think is a reasonable amount of time to ask people to wait on the side of I-80 to recharge? In any current EV, you'd need to stop >3 times. How long do you think is reasonable to ask people to wait? I think 20 minutes is on the edge of too long, and to convince most ICE drivers you would reasonably want it to be less than 10 minutes.

-Must cost the same or less as an ICE vehicle which is otherwise inferior

Yes, I really think they need to cost roughly the same - or at least the cost differential needs be pretty close. I mean a base 2016 Leaf is a ~$30000 car, but if you look at the inside of it, it's like a Nissan Juke which is in the low 20's. I'm not sure what to compare a Bolt too... but for $36,000 you'd get a heck of a nice ICE car. The Telsa Model 3 starts to bring the comparison closer, in my mind, at least on the base model... but $35k still seems like a lot of money for a car that will have manually adjustable non-heated seats in the base model.

The thing is progress is being made on all of these. The range is at ~250 miles right now for most upcoming models - which is well on the way to good enough - and several upcoming models of EV's - like the Mission E - are talking about 400 miles. Tesla is talking about a >350kW charger - which is 3-5x faster than current chargers and would several hundred miles of range in less than 15 minutes, and Volkswagen and Porsche have plans that are similar in terms out output. And prices are failing rapidly even given the larger battery packs. Everything I personally think is needed is in progress. And when these pieces come together and there isn't much of a sacrifice needed to get an EV and there's lots of good things (like your list), then I'm sure the tipping point will be here.

 

[Yuriman]

You don't want to take an EV on a road trip? What do you think is an acceptable amount of time to wait for an EV to recharge? I just drove from Colorado to Salt Lake City a few weeks ago in my Prius and had to stop for gas twice on the way there... how long do you think is a reasonable amount of time to ask people to wait on the side of I-80?

About 2 months ago I took a trip over to Buffalo for a long weekend. It was around a full days' driving each way and in my ~85mpg Insight, it cost me approximately $14 in gas (500 miles) each way. Considering I burned almost a full day in each direction, four cheap meals and two motel rooms brings the total travel cost up to around $250, nevermind what my time is worth. A round trip flight would have been $200. Maybe flying and renting a car would have been marginally more expensive, but I'm also driving the most fuel efficient car you can get, and I'm sure the math is similar for a vast majority of cases.

 

[pm]

About 2 months ago I took a trip over to Buffalo for a long weekend. It was around a full days' driving each way and in my ~85mpg Insight, it cost me approximately $14 in gas (500 miles) each way. Considering I burned almost a full day in each direction, four cheap meals and two motel rooms brings the total travel cost up to around $250, nevermind what my time is worth. A round trip flight would have been $200. Maybe flying and renting a car would have been marginally more expensive, but I'm also driving the most fuel efficient car you can get, and I'm sure the math is similar for a vast majority of cases.

Yeah, if you are alone. In this case, my wife and daughter were with me and we were going to look at colleges/universities in SLC. Once you have more than one person or stuff that's not easy to fit in a suitcase, the math tilts the other way. But I agree with you, nowadays flights are cheap and for longer road trips, it can be cheaper/easier to fly. And in addition to what you wrote, sometimes it might make sense to have an EV and then rent an ICE if you need to do something unusual and rare. Like I was trying to figure out how to drive an EV from Colorado to Jackson Hole to ski... and I was thinking that if we just owned only EV's I'd probably rent an ICE car for the four of us to drive.

But I do think that my saying "EV's need to be able to drive long distances and recharge quickly" isn't a some sort of far-fetched argument. I think it's an essential issue towards the goal of replacing ICE cars with EV's for the vast majority of the population.

 

[Zorba]

Because we only have electrical outlets every 50 miles.

How many times have you run your gas car empty and needed a tow?

Yeah, because you can just push your car to the nearest plug in and then wait for 15 hours while your car charges on 120v at a random persons house.

I've never seen someone have to have a gas car towed due to running out of gas, that was my point. There are also way more gas stations and you have far more range in a gas car. People still manage to run out of gas all the time for various reasons.

Run out of power, get a tow vs run out gas walk to the gas station and borrow a can.

 

[tweakmonkey]

Yeah, because you can just push your car to the nearest plug in and then wait for 15 hours while your car charges on 120v at a random persons house.

The trick is to plug it in BEFORE it dies

Also why would someone stay in one place for 15 hours as an emergency charge source, when they could drive a few miles within a half hour, even on the worst possible outlet they could find with 110?

If you get caught 100+ miles plus from any charger you must be an awful planner and should probably stick to gas cars, and keep a few extra gallons of gas with you at all times.

The long range out of town stuff still needs a lot to be figured out but jeez... people were spending $20000 ten years ago to convert regular cars to electric vehicles that predictably drove under 40 miles on a charge. Why would they have bothered when they could buy a Mustang GT for the same price? I'll tell you as a former Mustang GT owner - cause electric cars are awesome.

Whatever you feel about the subject, it's making leaps and bounds at the moment. And it's very cool stuff. Do I want to drive a Tesla across the USA right now? Not really. But I don't want to drive any car across the USA. I think driving one 500-1000 miles wouldn't be the end of the world. It's something I could manage a few times a year.

 

[Zorba]

The trick is to plug it in BEFORE it dies

Yup, I agree, however, people run out of gas all the time. I actually had a coworker with a CNG Civic whose wife ran it out of fuel and he had to have it towed to station. I haven't ran out of gas in 16 years, but I've had some close calls, especially when being suck on the highway in the middle of no where.

At the end of the day, I don't think that many people have bought into the idea of owning a pure commuter car and right now I don't think EVs make great everything cars. I hope the day will come, and I think it we'll get closer. But ignoring the issues and discounting legitimate concerns won't change people's minds.

I do think that EV is by far the most promising technology for replacing ICE in family cars, but there are some other promising developments out there, so the final solution might be a mix.

 

[tweakmonkey]

I haven't ran out of gas in 16 years,

Neither have I. Of course it could happen but it could happen either way. There are warnings all over an ev about remaining range. You better plan or get stuck- that will get better with time but for now you should probably be relatively responsible about it. If you get stuck without juice, you'll have to wait longer than in a gas car. But you also save time on maintenance, avoiding gas stations, and probably have better reliability on those road trips.

At the end of the day, I don't think that many people have bought into the idea of owning a pure commuter car and right now I don't think EVs make great everything cars

They're popping up everywhere here. I can't imagine people who had 80 mile Leafs won't happily get a 150 mile, or a 200 car next. Most ev owners I know have no plan to switch back to gas. And they're definitely gaining in popularity here. I probably see 50+ commuting many days a week. I have 5 on my street, and at least 10 within a couple blocks, plus those are just the ones not parked in a garage.

They don't make great long range cars yet. But they make great everything else cars. They also make great motorcycles - but not great long range motorcycles yet. The range and usefulness is very effected by location for the time being, too. What could be 90%+ of the vehicles on the west coast might be way less likely in the Midwest or somewhere with 200+ miles between destinations, especially in winter. But a massive chunk of the world won't wait for that.

The other thing they don't do is replicate the experience of driving a fun stick shift sports car, or the exhaust.

 

[Zorba]

@tweakmonkey Yeah the make a lot of sense in SoCal, with access to HOV lanes and what I assume is pretty good access to charging station. But around here I know very few people that have a true commuter car, and I don't think the range on any EV is enough to make it to the next closest metro and back.

I actually looked into Volts a little this summer, but I couldn't justify paying 10K more for an overall lesser vehicle. A commuter even makes some sense for us, since my wife and I carpool and have two cars. There is also basically no availability in OKC of EVs. The largest Chevy lot in town has 270 Silverados in stock, 1 Volt and 0 Bolts.

 

[MixMasterTang]

I would like to point out something about our electric grid that a lot of people have skipped over. At night most power plants are generating more electricity than is currently used just by being on and idle. Most EV charging happens at night, so I would actually guess that our current electric grid could handle charging millions of EV's right now with no upgrades needed.

 

[K1052]

I would like to point out something about our electric grid that a lot of people have skipped over. At night most power plants are generating more electricity than is currently used just by being on and idle. Most EV charging happens at night, so I would actually guess that our current electric grid could handle charging millions of EV's right now with no upgrades needed.

This is accurate. Also since wind power peaks overnight and we're putting up more of it every day a lot of that power will be renewable anyway.

 

[Brovane]

I don't know. But if he didn't that would explain it - because I pulled up plugshare while I was typing that post and I agree with you that there are some fast DC chargers along the route... Particularly the one in Marina just north of Monterey.

The problem with Public charging is that it is basically the wild-wild west unless you own a Tesla. You don't have any guarantees the fast DC charging will even be working, not ICE or a EV is parked in the one fast DC charging spot and the owner cannot be bothered to move it even though he finished charging a hour ago.

That is why Tesla has been smart to build their own network and they control the quality of the charging. A video talking about the number of Supercharging stalls that Tesla will be building over the next 12+ months. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0mytJS_DxM

 

[K1052]

The problem with Public charging is that it is basically the wild-wild west unless you own a Tesla. You don't have any guarantees the fast DC charging will even be working, not ICE or a EV is parked in the one fast DC charging spot and the owner cannot be bothered to move it even though he finished charging a hour ago.

That is why Tesla has been smart to build their own network and they control the quality of the charging. A video talking about the number of Supercharging stalls that Tesla will be building over the next 12+ months. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0mytJS_DxM

Usually the problem I encounter with CCS chargers is that they're broken but with Plugshare I, much more often than not, know that ahead of time. There can be no argument that Tesla's charging network is formidable and growing stronger all the time. It's one reason I hold a Model 3 reservation.

 

[Yuriman]

Has Tesla made any plans to make their network available to other manufacturers, perhaps at a fee?

 

[pm]

Has Tesla made any plans to make their network available to other manufacturers, perhaps at a fee?

Tesla has revealed that there have been discussions. https://chargedevs.com/newswire/elo...akers-about-sharing-the-supercharger-network/
That's from 2015. There was one additional disclosure that looked similar that came out this year but this time mentioned a "German manufacturer" but still was vague about it.

 

[ChronoReverse]

It's stupid that they're not all using Tesla's standard. It's the smallest plug yet offers the most power without resorting to voltages that nobody uses (looking right at you, CCS)

 

[MuchTooSexy]

It's stupid that they're not all using Tesla's standard. It's the smallest plug yet offers the most power without resorting to voltages that nobody uses (looking right at you, CCS)

i don't disagree, but this is starting to feel like deja vu from smartphone discussions... with tesla's supercharger being apple's walled garden, CCS being broadly adapted like android, and CHAdeMo being windows(?!!)

lol

 

[ChronoReverse]

i don't disagree, but this is starting to feel like deja vu from smartphone discussions... with tesla's supercharger being apple's walled garden, CCS being broadly adapted like android, and CHAdeMo being windows(?!!)

lol

I hear Tesla is on the CCS board now? Maybe they'll roll out the equivalent of USB C for EV charging and everyone could just use that.

The biggest problem with CCS is how absolutely enormous the connector is.