Electric Vehicle tipping point soon?

[1prophet]

It is a false metric. I have a garage, with no power approved for charging. My parents have a carport with no power. The house I'm looking at has a garage with no power (no lights, manual door etc). I've never stayed at a hotel provided by my company that had more than one charger. I couldn't even find a place to plug in my damn block heater so I could start my truck at -30F the next morning. Talk about fairy world numbers. The USA is not California. The Midwest and Deep South are full of high mileage power deserts. Hell part of the smoky mountain range was an issue when I only had 180 miles of gas in the Jeep, there was no where to fuel that wasn't off course. But I guess if all you do is use the interstate, things are great.


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Using that logic Hulu, Netflix, Amazon, etc. streaming video should not be successful because of all the people that lack high speed internet in the Midwest and deep south.

I believe once the real world range on electric cars exceeds 500+ miles along with faster charging times the tipping point will come and many of the range anxiety arguments will go the way of the horse and buggy.

 

[mdram]

whats the lifespan of a battery? will it last 100k?200k?
heck 300k?
replacement cost?

 

[bigi]

whats the lifespan of a battery? will it last 100k?200k?
heck 300k?
replacement cost?

Read: http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-250000-miles/

300,000 KM in 3 years. Battery still has 93% capacity.

It is from a taxi driver.

 

[bigi]

Rimac does constantly kick ass too.

The new deal will make Rimac even better.

https://electrek.co/2017/09/20/all-...million-investment-from-chinese-battery-firm/

 

[Viper GTS]

We have two decades of experience with hybrids and high mileage examples of Teslas (like the one bigi linked) that say it's a non issue. And with battery prices continuing to drop rapidly:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/arti...-battery-prices-fall-70-in-the-last-18-months

It's really, really a non issue.

Viper GTS

 

[mdram]

still doesnt give a price to replace batteries
assume a car with 300k, oil changes every 5k @ $50 each
thats $3000.
can i replace the batteries for this amount?

 

[MuchTooSexy]

still doesnt give a price to replace batteries
assume a car with 300k, oil changes every 5k @ $50 each
thats $3000.
can i replace the batteries for this amount?

http://www.greencarreports.com/news...eplacement-chevy-bolt-ev-electric-car-battery

basically if the whole battery has gone bad, the replacement cost for the Bolt is about $15k. but the expectation is that the battery will never get to that point.

 

[tweakmonkey]

still doesnt give a price to replace batteries
assume a car with 300k, oil changes every 5k @ $50 each
thats $3000.
can i replace the batteries for this amount?

Cause nothing else ever dies on a gas car and there's no other costs, right?

 

[Viper GTS]

I'd want to add a full engine rebuild cost on top of that $3,000 at an absolute minimum to make this a remotely fair comparison.

Viper GTS

 

[mdram]

thats just normal maintenance items
anything else, brakes, rotors, tires
should be the same on an electric. unless there is something special about it that it doesnt require brakes

15k is way too much maintenance in 300k miles

 

[Viper GTS]

thats just normal maintenance items
anything else, brakes, rotors, tires
should be the same on an electric. unless there is something special about it that it doesnt require brakes

15k is way too much maintenance in 300k miles

They have brakes, but they use them much less than normal cars. Regenerative braking is the default, with friction braking used for hard stops.

Saying battery pack replacement needs to be the same cost as oil changes is an absurd comparison. After that $3,000 in oil changes you still have a completely worn out motor. With 70% drops in 18 months still happening battery pack pricing is a constantly moving target. Regardless, it's proven to be very, very rare that an EV needs a new battery pack. You're making assumptions that your $3,000 in oil changes will yield a problem free 300,000 mile motor. I'd venture a guess that your odds are almost certainly better that a battery pack will make it to 300k than a gas motor will with nothing but oil changes.

Viper GTS

 

[mdram]

They have brakes, but they use them much less than normal cars. Regenerative braking is the default, with friction braking used for hard stops.

Saying battery pack replacement needs to be the same cost as oil changes is an absurd comparison. After that $3,000 in oil changes you still have a completely worn out motor. With 70% drops in 18 months still happening battery pack pricing is a constantly moving target. Regardless, it's proven to be very, very rare that an EV needs a new battery pack. You're making assumptions that your $3,000 in oil changes will yield a problem free 300,000 mile motor. I'd venture a guess that your odds are almost certainly better that a battery pack will make it to 300k than a gas motor will with nothing but oil changes.

Viper GTS

going from my experience with multiple vehicles, both personal and work
300k is easy with no issues

 

[Yuriman]

I think a more fair comparison to a battery replacement is total fuel cost. Let's say 35mpg over 300,000 miles, that comes out to around 8,500 gallons of gas. At $2.50 per gallon, it's a little over $21,000 in fuel.

300,000 miles worth of electricity at 2 cents per mile is $6,000. Add in a $15,000 battery (which will probably be fine for most people even at 300k), and you're at cost parity, so long as your ICE vehicle needs no oil changes or other maintenance for 300k miles.

 

[mdram]

your cost per mile for the ev is low
national average is 12.4 cent/kwh
assume 35khw/100miles thats over 4 cents per mile (4.3)
in some states its up to 18 cents, some as low as 7
so that will vary with location
still cheaper than gas? sure, but not as much on average

throw in that in this day and age when electric companies want to put in smart meters to manage your appliances

edit: almost forgot. eventually you will have to add in a tax per mile. as ev do not currently pay a road tax. it is coming

 

[rstrohkirch]

thats just normal maintenance items
anything else, brakes, rotors, tires
should be the same on an electric. unless there is something special about it that it doesnt require brakes

15k is way too much maintenance in 300k miles

Reports put average gasoline vehicle engine life at 150-200k. Also, included maintenance items forgotten are timing and serpentine belts, air filters and spark plugs.

 

[mdram]

Reports put average gasoline vehicle engine life at 150-200k. Also, included maintenance items forgotten are timing and serpentine belts, air filters and spark plugs.

298k on current daily driver
never needed timing belt
1 serpentine belt change $60
2 air filters $40
spark plugs $2 each (x6 x3 changes) $36
ok so thats $136 over 298k

 

[ChronoReverse]

Well someone lucky like you will have no need to change batteries at 300k then. It'll be at 93% and you'll be able to go to 600k no problem.

 

[tweakmonkey]

Ahhh the anecdotal evidence. I work on cars for a living. I could list 100 parts that may need to be replaced by 300k miles on the average car. Not everyone drives a Camry and even those will have oil consumption (requiring engine rebuilds), failing catalytic converters, alternators, fuel pumps, misc. sensors and so-on, not including regular maintenance (timing belts at 60-90k, water pump and so-on) by 300k. Also transmissions often fail at that sort of mileage, especially with bigger engines (or sooner, like in SUVs and vans). And you're also including your own labor for all those parts. And again forgetting that gasoline costs something like 3x as much as electricity for the same distance traveled. And they are way easier on brakes.

I'm sure batteries will die at some point, or require refurbishing. But to say gas cars won't require repairs in 300k miles is crazy.

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-maintenance/the-cost-of-car-ownership/

http://newsroom.aaa.com/2015/04/annual-cost-operate-vehicle-falls-8698-finds-aaa-archive/

Maintenance: UP .99 percent to 5.11 cents per mile/$766.50 per year (+$7.50)

Annual maintenance, including labor time and repair part costs associated with factory-recommended maintenance, was factored into the 2015 survey along with average costs of an extended warranty. Maintenance costs varied widely by vehicle type but, on average, were up slightly from 5.06 cents to 5.11 cents per mile. A recent survey of AAA-Approved Auto Repair shops found that the majority of drivers are behind schedule in routine maintenance, including oil changes, tire maintenance and battery inspection/testing.

https://www.yourmechanic.com/article/the-most-and-least-expensive-cars-to-maintain-by-maddy-martin

 

[mdram]

just stating my experience

 

[desy]

Yes all that 'factory recommended maintenance' is what the suckers do
For me I expect to pay nothing in maint for the first 5 yrs other than consumables tires/oil and that gets me to about 80k miles <$100 per year then I budget about $1000 a year after til I get rid of it somewhere around 200K miles. So always the EV proponents exaggerate costs of a FF vehicle I get it, its how you represent your business case.

On the flip I don't think batteries are an issue with an electric car other than it drives up the initial purchase price. Still too many pitfalls for me to own one here but certainly parts of North America its a suitable option. I actually want EV's to succeed because its gonna be better environmentally in the long term as they build support around the manufacture and operation.
Just have to figure out how to fix the roads cause that comes out of the gas tax around here, it's one of the reasons WHY gas is 3X the price of electricity. EV's aren't paying their share of infrastructure.

 

[mdram]

the environmental impact of electric cars is still suspect
they may save some in usage, but the manufactur of the batteries requires rare minerals, that create alot of issues

 

[MuchTooSexy]

given their own data from the volt, i wonder why chevy isn't confident enough to extend the battery warranty much further than the current 100k miles. that would certainly put more people at ease over potential battery replacement concerns. (i'm only hypothesizing that when people think of batteries, they picture their smartphones where the batteries have degraded and maybe even started bulging after a year.)

 

[MuchTooSexy]

the environmental impact of electric cars is still suspect
they may save some in usage, but the manufactur of the batteries requires rare minerals, that create alot of issues

that is an issue, certainly. but regular environmental impact, like the pollution from industrial mining, should probably be separated from climate change. i think most people look at EV as helping with climate change.

 

[K1052]

the environmental impact of electric cars is still suspect
they may save some in usage, but the manufactur of the batteries requires rare minerals, that create alot of issues

 

[Thebobo]

Just the fact that more and more people consider ECs as an option to consider is a tipping point. All the hyper environmentalists, trend setting celebrities, and hippies have switched, but more and more it's just people wanting a new vehicle that are buying ECs.

Good to know that Hippies are trendsetting. But I always knew that. .\/..