Electric Vehicle tipping point soon?

[mdram]

i never mentioned global warming, and conceded the emissions.
i questioned the rare minerals usage and pollution

so whats the graphic for?

 

[ChronoReverse]

the environmental impact of electric cars is still suspect
they may save some in usage, but the manufactur of the batteries requires rare minerals, that create alot of issues

Rare earths are only necessary for permanent magnet type electric motors (lithium is limited too but not a rare earth) but most EVs use AC type motors that don't need permanent magnets: https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/3...motor-ideal-choice-21st-century-electric-car/

As for lithium, there are sufficient proven supplies and even though China produces (and consumes) the most, there are large sources in places like Chile and Argentina that aren't outright hostile to North America.

 

[mdram]

Rare earths are only necessary for permanent magnet type electric motors (lithium is limited too but not a rare earth) but most EVs use AC type motors that don't need permanent magnets: https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/3...motor-ideal-choice-21st-century-electric-car/

As for lithium, there are sufficient proven supplies and even though China produces (and consumes) the most, there are large sources in places like Chile and Argentina that aren't outright hostile to North America.

the world economy disagrees
https://www.ft.com/content/44acde0a-81a2-11e7-a4ce-15b2513cb3ff

"The likes of Tesla are choosing to use rare earth-based permanent magnet motors, rather than induction motors, in some vehicles, as they are lighter and more powerful. That is key to improving how far the vehicles can go without being recharged, according to David Merriman, an analyst at consultancy Roskill."

 

[tweakmonkey]

Yes all that 'factory recommended maintenance' is what the suckers do
For me I expect to pay nothing in maint for the first 5 yrs other than consumables tires/oil and that gets me to about 80k miles <$100 per year then I budget about $1000 a year after til I get rid of it somewhere around 200K miles. So always the EV proponents exaggerate costs of a FF vehicle I get it, its how you represent your business case.

Sure you can postpone and ignore service intervals but I think Toyota saying to change a timing belt every 90k miles isn't excessive. If it fails you'll probably have to rebuild the whole engine. And MANY components wear out or die just cause, regardless of scheduled maintenance. Spend a few hours waiting in the service lobby at any car dealership...

On the flip I don't think batteries are an issue with an electric car other than it drives up the initial purchase price. Still too many pitfalls for me to own one here but certainly parts of North America its a suitable option. I actually want EV's to succeed because its gonna be better environmentally in the long term as they build support around the manufacture and operation.
Just have to figure out how to fix the roads cause that comes out of the gas tax around here, it's one of the reasons WHY gas is 3X the price of electricity. EV's aren't paying their share of infrastructure.

Gas tax is a relatively small percentage of a price of gas - not enough to make it 3x as expensive per mile. The main reason EVs are cheaper to operate is because electricity is easier to come by than gas, and electric motors are way more efficient than gas engines, which drop most of their energy as heat. I think a lot more of it has to do with the enormous costs of extraction, transportation, refining, distribution, and so-on. And generally there's been no tax or cost associated (for individuals) with the price of the wars for oil or the air pollution associated with the gas (instead we just ignore it and we'll deal with it later). Fuel tax doesn't pay the entire cost of the roads and highways, and sure EVs should probably pay some equivalent and will eventually. You can also remove huge chunks of the entities like CARB (California), emissions testing for cars, and EPA's automotive divisions.

 

[ChronoReverse]

the world economy disagrees
https://www.ft.com/content/44acde0a-81a2-11e7-a4ce-15b2513cb3ff

"The likes of Tesla are choosing to use rare earth-based permanent magnet motors, rather than induction motors, in some vehicles, as they are lighter and more powerful. That is key to improving how far the vehicles can go without being recharged, according to David Merriman, an analyst at consultancy Roskill."

But that quote is LITERALLY wrong since Tesla uses induction motors! It's right on Tesla's specification page: https://www.tesla.com/support/model-s-specifications


That analyst didn't even get the premise right in the first place! He's so wrong that I wonder if it's actively malicious.

 

[tweakmonkey]

Not my quote but:

Lithium, cobalt, indium, gallium, and tellurium are not even rare earth elements. The rare earth elements are the lanthanides plus (customarily) yttrium and scandium.

The majority of wind turbines use induction generators. They do not require rare earth magnets.

Many EVs use permanent magnet motors incorporating rare earth elements but that is not actually required to make an efficient and high performance EV. Tesla uses rare-earth-free induction motors.

Most EVs use lithium ion batteries that are free of rare earth elements. Only the minority of EVs using NiMh batteries require rare earth elements in battery packs.

~95% of the PV market is based on crystalline silicon: no indium, gallium, or tellurium required.

Sadly, I have seen these same mistakes voiced by environmentalists who are genuinely concerned and not just trying to shill for the fossil status quo. These errors have acquired the folk-status of facts by sheer repetition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_element

If we're concerned about what's going into batteries and motors, we really need the kind of investment into batteries and motors that we've made into ICE over the past 100 years. Then we'd have some progress EVs can get much cleaner. Power generation can get much cleaner. ICE cars are pretty optimized by now.

 

[mdram]

your looking at the model s
the model 3 will use permanent magnets
https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/au...l-3-has-unexpected-electric-motor-design.html

The 2017 Tesla Model 3 sedan uses a permanent magnet electric motor instead of the AC induction motors used in all Tesla products to date.

 

[ChronoReverse]

Huh, I didn't know that. I wonder why they would go back to rare earths for the mass market model...

[fakedit]So rare earth prices have come down. That explains it. They were never really all that rare in the first place but rather not enough mining to supply it. I guess everyone wanted a piece of the pie and ramped up their mining.

We'll just have to step up recycling like with the platinum in catalytic converters to reduce the ultimate environmental impact of the mining. It's one of those things where it's not an unsolvable problem.

 

[mdram]

lighter motor, longer range.

 

[desy]

Sure you can postpone and ignore service intervals but I think Toyota saying to change a timing belt every 90k miles isn't excessive. If it fails you'll probably have to rebuild the whole engine. And MANY components wear out or die just cause, regardless of scheduled maintenance. Spend a few hours waiting in the service lobby at any car dealership...


Gas tax is a relatively small percentage of a price of gas - not enough to make it 3x as expensive per mile. The main reason EVs are cheaper to operate is because electricity is easier to come by than gas, and electric motors are way more efficient than gas engines, which drop most of their energy as heat. I think a lot more of it has to do with the enormous costs of extraction, transportation, refining, distribution, and so-on. And generally there's been no tax or cost associated (for individuals) with the price of the wars for oil or the air pollution associated with the gas (instead we just ignore it and we'll deal with it later). Fuel tax doesn't pay the entire cost of the roads and highways, and sure EVs should probably pay some equivalent and will eventually. You can also remove huge chunks of the entities like CARB (California), emissions testing for cars, and EPA's automotive divisions.

Which is why I refuse to buy cars with timing belts, chain only. I'm over 50, don't worry well aware of what goes on in auto servicing.

Maybe not where you live but fuel taxes cover it here in Canada and yes I know that EV's are more efficient, by a bunch, which is why I hope they can succeed eventually. The topic is have we reached a tipping point? No IMO and not in 10yrs based on current technology 20 yrs OK I can see it. Its been a decade since the Volt came out, still waiting for something

Here's a nice little counter argument courtesy of Britain, they see grid infrastructure as a major issue
http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Ene...ic-Vehicles-The-High-Cost-Of-Going-Green.html

 

[tweakmonkey]

Maybe not where you live but fuel taxes cover it here in Canada

USA here, sorry I didn't realize you were talking about Canada's fuel taxes.
http://www.frontiergroup.org/reports/fg/who-pays-roads

 

[pm]

your cost per mile for the ev is low
national average is 12.4 cent/kwh
assume 35khw/100miles thats over 4 cents per mile (4.3)
in some states its up to 18 cents, some as low as 7
so that will vary with location
still cheaper than gas? sure, but not as much on average

throw in that in this day and age when electric companies want to put in smart meters to manage your appliances

edit: almost forgot. eventually you will have to add in a tax per mile. as ev do not currently pay a road tax. it is coming

In most states with higher prices of electricity they have plans for reduced pricing for EV's called a time-of-use plan and you can get substantially reduced pricing.

Also, 24% of US states currently have a road tax - or equivalent fee - for EV's.

 

[K1052]

i never mentioned global warming, and conceded the emissions.
i questioned the rare minerals usage and pollution

so whats the graphic for?

Saying something "may" be true isn't much of a concession when it is empirically true.

 

[mdram]

Saying something "may" be true isn't much of a concession when it is empirically true.

look at the entire statement. the question was on the overall environmental impact, not the emissions

but does that chart take into account the emissions from the electric generation?

 

[Viper GTS]

look at the entire statement. the question was on the overall environmental impact, not the emissions

but does that chart take into account the emissions from the electric generation?

Yes that's exactly what that chart is, why do you think it's varied by region?

It's from here (which took me about 30 seconds to find by the way):

http://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/life-cycle-ev-emissions

Also even a cursory knowledge of how power is generated in the USA should tell you that map is accounting for regional emissions from power generation (eg hydro in PNW).

Viper GTS

 

[K1052]

look at the entire statement. the question was on the overall environmental impact, not the emissions

but does that chart take into account the emissions from the electric generation?

Besides obviously CO2...which is kind of the whole point of the chart....I presume you mean things like SO2, NOx, etc?

 

[mdram]

i don know power generation varies from area to area.
the amount in each area is what i am unaware of

but yes. everyone talks c02, no one talks total polution.
all forms.

i will avoid the global warming talk as thats another issue in another thread

 

[K1052]

but yes. everyone talks c02, no one talks total polution.
all forms.

This is going to vary drastically from grid to grid. Places like California with a relatively isolated grid, high renewable penetration, and little coal sourced power will incur a lot less non CO2 pollution than places in the rust belt still running a lot of coal power. The graphic kind of gives you a sense of where the cleaner grids are since it's pretty unlikely to encounter a scenario where the MPG equivalent is high (meaning lower carbon emission) but for SO2/NOx to be the same or higher in proportion.

Nationally what's happened to the two largest non CO2 emissions from the power sector has been impressive:

SO2 emissions have cratered and NOx is less than half what it was a decade ago. There are really three reasons why this happened 1) emissions controls have been added to many plants to reduce SO2/NOx levels to compliant levels 2) The natural gas boom has displaced a lot of coal power, usually the least efficient/dirtiest plants 3) Increasingly inexpensive renewable energy gaining at utility scale.

 

[thecoolnessrune]

Using that logic Hulu, Netflix, Amazon, etc. streaming video should not be successful because of all the people that lack high speed internet in the Midwest and deep south.

I believe once the real world range on electric cars exceeds 500+ miles along with faster charging times the tipping point will come and many of the range anxiety arguments will go the way of the horse and buggy.

Your statement makes 0 sense, so I don't know why you'd say "using that logic". If Hulu, Netflix, et. al cost more than renting a couple of Blu-Rays, while continuing to not be useful for a large number of the population, then they very well might not be that successful at all. It's ironic because the thing that made streaming movie services successful was low prices (watching more than 2 movies in a month usually made up for your gas + rental bill, not to even mention the cable cutting possibilities that came later) and instantaneous access (Want to watch a movie? Launch the app, press play). Electric vehicles currently offer neither advantage over their gas counterpart. If they were substantially cheaper, and you had ultra-fast charging at a convenience that at least rivaled a gas pump, I assure you that electric vehicles would be much more popular than they already are, and our tipping point would have already arrived.

 

[Yuriman]

^ Most days I ride an electric bicycle that I assembled for around $250. It costs substantially less up front than even a scooter, has basically zero operating costs, tops out at around ~25 (and gets there quickly), is able to use public bike paths or keep up with traffic in most city streets, and can be parked basically anywhere. If people were entirely pragmatic, you'd see these everywhere. There's a lot more than goes into it than that.

 

[MuchTooSexy]

Your statement makes 0 sense, so I don't know why you'd say "using that logic". If Hulu, Netflix, et. al cost more than renting a couple of Blu-Rays, while continuing to not be useful for a large number of the population, then they very well might not be that successful at all. It's ironic because the thing that made streaming movie services successful was low prices (watching more than 2 movies in a month usually made up for your gas + rental bill, not to even mention the cable cutting possibilities that came later) and instantaneous access (Want to watch a movie? Launch the app, press play). Electric vehicles currently offer neither advantage over their gas counterpart. If they were substantially cheaper, and you had ultra-fast charging at a convenience that at least rivaled a gas pump, I assure you that electric vehicles would be much more popular than they already are, and our tipping point would have already arrived.

i don't know. http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2017/02/lease-discounts-on-electric-focus/

a few months ago it seems this was the cheapest lease you could get for ANY car out there. not just EV. and this is before local subsidies.

EDIT: admittedly, the ford focus electric is about the worst EV out there these days.

 

[mdram]

76 mile range?
wow thats pretty useless

 

[tweakmonkey]

Plenty of range for commuting, shopping trips, errands. Probably many out of town trips for nearby stuff <35 miles away. Not good for an only car household but fine for a second car if the other is a gas car unless everyone in the house commutes 70+ miles a day

The next generation of evs make these look useless but it's a lot better than commuting in some 20 year old beater so the used market will get many of those people into evs. Perfect "appliance" cars when they're cheap enough.

 

[MuchTooSexy]

if we were having this tipping point discussion back in 2014, the focus electric might have been used to make the case for EVs. but now we have much better cars such as a chevy bolt. i'm certain in three years we will have even better examples. i think the tipping point is much closer than the 20-30 years some people are predicting.

 

[heymrdj]

Plenty of range for commuting, shopping trips, errands. Probably many out of town trips for nearby stuff <35 miles away. Not good for an only car household but fine for a second car if the other is a gas car.

So a toy.

I’m curious how well prepare the grid for the 7AM rush. As it is currently when it is 20 below I idle the car to get heat built up. Costs me gas, but I can handle refueling for 5 minutes. I know the Cmax can’t even maintain defrosting on the L2 charger, it still requires batter power on top of the L2 (by about .8KW) so you’re already not 100% just to defrost. Then because of the continued defrost and heat, you get about 11 miles on the pure electric side. Granted this is an affordable 25K hybrid, not a 70K Tesla. But there’s been a lot of talk about charging at night, at least in the winter states, we’ll need full charging capacity and then some just to make the cars driveable throughout the day.


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